Problems up front??

[Sir Geoff]

Said in a different thread we are playing differently with Mehmeti. We now have two wide men and one central striker. Earlier in the season we had Conway and Wells down the middle then Bell and Wells. At the moment with two wide men the lone striker is isolated with no support. Midfield aren't busting a gut to get in the box and support. Crosses are coming in but one striker has no chance of reaching anything with one defender in front and one behind. We have gone from a front two to one and as a result don't look like scoring any time soon.

[Davefevs]

13 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Said in a different thread we are playing differently with Mehmeti. We now have two wide men and one central striker. Earlier in the season we had Conway and Wells down the middle then Bell and Wells. At the moment with two wide men the lone striker is isolated with no support. Midfield aren't busting a gut to get in the box and support. Crosses are coming in but one striker has no chance of reaching anything with one defender in front and one behind. We have gone from a front two to one and as a result don't look like scoring any time soon.

Also shows how even within the same 4213, different personnel play it differently.  Semenyo at the LF played very narrow.  That meant he was close to Wells, but also gave Pring space to bomb into.

And as you say Wells played as a two with Conway.

[ExiledAjax]

2 hours ago, Sir Geoff said:

Said in a different thread we are playing differently with Mehmeti. We now have two wide men and one central striker. Earlier in the season we had Conway and Wells down the middle then Bell and Wells. At the moment with two wide men the lone striker is isolated with no support. Midfield aren't busting a gut to get in the box and support. Crosses are coming in but one striker has no chance of reaching anything with one defender in front and one behind. We have gone from a front two to one and as a result don't look like scoring any time soon.

I generally agree, but the switch to 4213, 4231, however you want to write it, was made at the turn of the year. We had 4 league and 3 cup games playing it prior to Mehmeti joining and starting.

In those 4 league games in January we averaged 9 shots a game - same as in the last 5 - but xG per shot was a huge 0.18, 2.5x the 0.07 we've registered (excluding the two penalties) in the last 5 league games. We scored 8 goals in those 4 league games. I don't have the xG for the cup games, but we scored 6 in 3. The formation was dangerous in January. Properly, properly dangerous. Not soft opponents either. Blackburn, WBA, Coventry. We were really threatening.

I honestly think something changed where we lost Naismith and started mixing Mehmeti into the attack, bringing Bell central, and resting Wells. There's been some other tweaks in the team, but the quality of shot has dropped off a cliff in February.

Edited March 4, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[tin]

I agree Bell is a problem playing on his own through the middle. At this stage of his career, he needs to play on either flank or not at all IMO. He needs to fill out before he’s considered for the lone striker role.

Depending on the extent of the injuries to Kalas and Williams, as soon as Conway is fully fit again he has to start in a two with Wells again. We should then build the side from front to back around those two like we did at the start of the season. 

That might mean a 4-4-2 with Mehmeti and Sykes wide of any combo in the middle, a diamond with those two wide plus James sitting and Scott or Weimann as a 10, or reverting to a back three with Tanner, King and Pring. The latter is far from ideal, but I can’t see any other option for Huddersfield. 

[Harry]

Sorry. 
Old thread revival. 
 

I actually started this as a non-serious thread but this appears to now be a genuine concern. 
4 and a half games now without scoring from open play. 
414 minutes. 
 

Mmmmm…..let’s hope we can find the fix on Tuesday 

[redkev]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Sorry. 
Old thread revival. 
 

I actually started this as a non-serious thread but this appears to now be a genuine concern. 
4 and a half games now without scoring from open play. 
414 minutes. 
 

Mmmmm…..let’s hope we can find the fix on Tuesday 

Another penalty

[stephenkibby.]

10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Sorry. 
Old thread revival. 
 

I actually started this as a non-serious thread but this appears to now be a genuine concern. 
4 and a half games now without scoring from open play. 
414 minutes. 
 

Mmmmm…..let’s hope we can find the fix on Tuesday 

Mmmmm will you have some suggestions how to fix it if a hungrey bottom side in front of an up for it home crowd are fighting for their lives in this division?

 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Our conversion rate seems to be on the slide again, both individually and collectively.

Just on Conway, it is worth noting as I mentioned a while ago, his conversion rate was for a time high. Insanely high.

Fine young player, prospect but a drought following an insanely high conversion rate is and was highly likely.

What if any correlation between the absence of Naismith and our less prolific periods.

4 goals from 43 shots is a shade over 9 percent but 2 of the goals were penalties.

43 shots is also down on the amounts being created but earlier in the season we were less than prolific at certain times but recently we were outperforming averages.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[2015]

4 hours ago, Alessandro said:

Is it just me, or isn't there an elephant in the room that no one has mentioned yet? Everyone else has been mentioned. 

I know he is a golden boy, rightly so, big potential and Bristol boy son of former player etc, so I expect pelters for this, but Bell:

Not a criticism of him directly as I'm sure he will continue to develop - but don't be blinded by his few good runs and goals, I think his overall play is nowhere near up to standard right now, nor should he be necessarily for that matter at his age and development. Dropping Wells and him playing centrally also collates with arguably our worst performances since Christmas. 

Yes he presses hard and works for the team - but it's not enough. Any quick 18/19/20 year old quick kid can run at a keeper or defender and try and put them off. He was so easily marshalled today that Cardiff could stick 2 or 3 on Mehmeti and Scott no problem whatsoever. We've got a three page thread criticising Mehmeti, if he was a 4 or 5/10 today Bell was a 2 or 3 IMO.

Yes, we should be developing players and looking to the future which he is part of but I still think he is someone who should be either a) out wide or b) coming off the bench right now - especially if we want to be a team challenging the top half and above. 

Perhaps i'm being harsh - it's not so much a criticism of him or his potential, but more how he's being used right now.

Totally agree with this. I like Bell, obviously a talent and has a good future but i'm surprised that not many have raised eyebrows at him now starting ahead of Wells. Not that Wells has been firing much in the last month, but he is a better option than Bell right now.  

He did a lot of running about today did Bell, but that's about it. Too weak currently

[Mr Popodopolous]

As for Conway, checked and he scored a frankly ludicrous 5 goals from 9 shots across 6 or 7 games back in August/September.

Not just the goals/games ratio but the conversion rate was insane.

[Topper 123]

Cornick not fit 

[Lrrr]

On Bell, he's not a wide player (by trade at least) and it feels he's in the same position as Antoine a few years ago, bundles of potential but needs time to realise it. For all the comments I've seen online saying 'Bell isn't a centre forward' not necessarily on OTIB, yes Bell is a centre forward however really he's in his first significant batch of games for the first team rather than disjointed appearances and all you have to do is think back to Semenyo of a couple of seasons ago and people's reactions then.

[W-S-M Seagull]

7 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Plus Antoine was pretty much the complete package at Championship level, strong, quick, direct, decent with both feet & unpredictable.

That’s why he was starting at The Emirates today..

Apart from when he played within himself as he didn't want to get injured for the world cup. 

[Simon bristol]

5 hours ago, 2015 said:

Totally agree with this. I like Bell, obviously a talent and has a good future but i'm surprised that not many have raised eyebrows at him now starting ahead of Wells. Not that Wells has been firing much in the last month, but he is a better option than Bell right now.  

He did a lot of running about today did Bell, but that's about it. Too weak currently

It was clear that the starting line up going forwards we were going with potential rather than know how…. Going away to cardiff with mehmeti, bell and sykes as a front 3 is very lightweight, if it worked it would have been spectacular,, if it didnt,, well we found out!

[ExiledAjax]

7 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Our conversion rate seems to be on the slide again, both individually and collectively.

Just on Conway, it is worth noting as I mentioned a while ago, his conversion rate was for a time high. Insanely high.

Fine young player, prospect but a drought following an insanely high conversion rate is and was highly likely.

What if any correlation between the absence of Naismith and our less prolific periods.

4 goals from 43 shots is a shade over 9 percent but 2 of the goals were penalties.

43 shots is also down on the amounts being created but earlier in the season we were less than prolific at certain times but recently we were outperforming averages.

Conversion has dropped because the shots are weaker. 

0.07 xG per shot versus a seasonal average of 0.12 and a previous 10 game average of 0.18. Our shots are just more likely to be saved or miss.

[Son of Fred]

13 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Thanks mate, interesting.

Whilst results have been good recently, no goals from open play in four matches and just two in five league games is a legitimate concern. Maybe we are only allowed goals from open play OR penalties and not both together! 

I'd say Mehmeti maybe holding onto the ball for longer than is neccessary sometimes could be a factor. I also think we are still rubbish with the ball unless Naismith plays. And I also guess the five games coincides with the departure of Antoine, so doubtless that is a factor as he scored goals.

No Conway also doesn't help, and Cornick doesn't look like he has many goals in him.

Cause for concern for the remainder of the season. 

Yes,, We really do need Naismith & Conway back  .....am I right in saying both are due to return post international break??....

For the immediate I'd like us to get back to basics & chalk up a few more points before the break..

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Son of Fred said:

Yes,, We really do need Naismith & Conway back  .....am I right in saying both are due to return post international break??....

For the immediate I'd like us to get back to basics & chalk up a few more points before the break..

Conway could be a big boost when he come back.

Looking at the numbers our true attacking purple patch was the first ten games or so of the season. We posted big numbers then - 11.3 shots per game, 4.1 on target, xG per shot of 0.13. Scored 1.9 per game. All well above our season averages and shots on target, xG per shot and goals scored are what you'd expect from a play off team.

Interesting that we were in a 352 formation at that point rather than the 433 we've all been lauding in 2023. Conway and Wells up top. Sykes at RWB. Even Dasilva rather than Pring on the left. What we do see in the formations is that 433 gives us a better balance of attack and defence. In 352 we were dangerous going forward but allowed too much threat at our own end of the pitch. We conceded almost as many as we scored and it wasn't sustainable despite the attacking quality. IMO 433 is the better compromise.

This is a really interesting thread with some top input. I think I'm leaning towards attacking quality being more dependent on personnel rather than formation/system. Don't know what the accepted tactical theory is on this, but for us this season it seems that we are at our most dangerous when we have our most direct players on the pitch.

[Jacki]

8 hours ago, Lrrr said:

On Bell, he's not a wide player (by trade at least) and it feels he's in the same position as Antoine a few years ago, bundles of potential but needs time to realise it. For all the comments I've seen online saying 'Bell isn't a centre forward' not necessarily on OTIB, yes Bell is a centre forward however really he's in his first significant batch of games for the first team rather than disjointed appearances and all you have to do is think back to Semenyo of a couple of seasons ago and people's reactions then.

I really like Bell, he’s got bags of potential and will be a real asset to us. However I just don’t think he’s quite ready to play as a central striker in the Championships just yet in the way that Conway is. He works incredibly hard but he just seems to struggle physically against the big defenders in this league and the ball keeps coming back to us because he just isn’t quite able to hold it up as we would need him to yet. That will come, but he’s not quite ready yet imo  

Personally I’d play him drifting in from the left hand side for the time being. He looks a real threat there away from the muck and bullets physicality of playing in the centre. Either way, he’s going to be a fantastic player for us for the next few years

[sh1t_ref_again]

The issue for me is not just about finishing, it's link up play, Wells is so much stronger and clever on the ball

[Silvio Dante]

As ever, these things aren’t binary. If you track our lack of scoring back to the  Preston game (last time we scored two in a match) then the following are relevant:

- Loss of Naismith vs Preston. Williams done well since coming in but has nowhere near the same passing range/vision. We’ve lost the ability to release the ball from deep to runners through that.

- Loss of Atkinson Vs Sunderland. Again, Kalas excellent defensively but Rob brings the ball out of defence, shifting opponents around and opening up games. We’ve lost that.

- Loss of Wells - unlike the others, self inflicted but he’s started one in four. Bell doesn’t look ready to play central yet to me as has been stated and we seem to be without an outlet who can hold the ball up

- Loss of Scott yesterday (attacking wise). Williams injury pulled Alex from the 10 role to the CM role where he will naturally create less. Andi coming into 10 is a different player - he’s not going to play through balls to quick runners, so doesn’t really support a front three of Sykes/Bell/Mehmeti

I think we can only solve what we can solve considering injuries. For me, Wells needs to play and we need to ensure Scott is the 10 if we can. That probably means a front six of James-King-Scott-Wells-Sykes-Mehmeti to start Tuesday

[GrahamC]

2 hours ago, Son of Fred said:

Yes,, We really do need Naismith & Conway back  .....am I right in saying both are due to return post international break??....

For the immediate I'd like us to get back to basics & chalk up a few more points before the break..

Think Conway could be back sooner, Pearson said he was back in training last week & was having to manage his desire to play.

Also said Naismith “could” be back before the international break, but definitely after it.

[The Bard]

We are now lightweight up front and teams know it.  Bell was bullied yesterday.  Can't really fathom why he's starting through the middle tbh.  He seems more effective playing wide.  Think Cornick may help us as a target as he is awkward and will pose different problems.  Difficulty is that it would be a change in playing style.

I don't see Scott playing deeper as a problem.  He is far superior than Williams in that role and we should be able to get enough from our 6 available attackers.

I would take Mehmeti out for Huddersfield but bring him back in for Blackpool.  Move Bell to the left, play either Cornick or Wells through the middle and Weimann into 10 role.   If we had more available defenders I'd be tempted to go 3 4 1 2.

[1960maaan]

Good post.

1 hour ago, Silvio Dante said:

As ever, these things aren’t binary. If you track our lack of scoring back to the  Preston game (last time we scored two in a match) then the following are relevant:

- Loss of Naismith vs Preston. Williams done well since coming in but has nowhere near the same passing range/vision. We’ve lost the ability to release the ball from deep to runners through that.

I think it was Rotherham that really highlighted his passing, and the thing I was screaming at the TV for yesterday. He can hit that space behind a WB/FB , time after times Bell or Sykes would go to make the run behind their stand in LWB. The player on the ball hesitated almost every time. That ball was on so often and rarely used.

- Loss of Atkinson Vs Sunderland. Again, Kalas excellent defensively but Rob brings the ball out of defence, shifting opponents around and opening up games. We’ve lost that.

The difference in how we played out with Kalas is massive. Great defender, looks uncomfortable with the ball. More difficult playing on your wrong side.

- Loss of Wells - unlike the others, self inflicted but he’s started one in four. Bell doesn’t look ready to play central yet to me as has been stated and we seem to be without an outlet who can hold the ball up

Don't really understand him not starting more, specially yesterday.

- Loss of Scott yesterday (attacking wise). Williams injury pulled Alex from the 10 role to the CM role where he will naturally create less. Andi coming into 10 is a different player - he’s not going to play through balls to quick runners, so doesn’t really support a front three of Sykes/Bell/Mehmeti

Scotts ability to go past players on the edge of the box or find a pass makes a difference. Trying to do that from deeper allowed Cardiff to have a dig with less worry of a free kick. He lost the ball a few times trying to run with it, probably less options on, but he is much more of a threat further forward.

I think we can only solve what we can solve considering injuries. For me, Wells needs to play and we need to ensure Scott is the 10 if we can. That probably means a front six of James-King-Scott-Wells-Sykes-Mehmeti to start Tuesday

Amazing how, with such a small squad and so few options, we can come up with so many alternatives. Team sheet Tuesday will be interesting.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Conversion has dropped because the shots are weaker. 

0.07 xG per shot versus a seasonal average of 0.12 and a previous 10 game average of 0.18. Our shots are just more likely to be saved or miss.

Perhaps but that number of shots...43 shots in 5 games also isn't that much. Unsure where it ranks, quantity needs to rise too of course. 

8 from a similar number (no own goals, no penalties), quick check says 8 from 42. That is within the top range of sustainability ie pushing it.

Otoh across Sheffield United, Watford, Stoke and West Brom at home 0 penalties and 0 own goals- 47 shots, 1 goal. That's home only but...Phillips also hit his own bar in the last of these.

Overall from QPR at home, 10 goals 133 shots excluding own goals and (HA!) at that point was a given to exclude penalties. 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

18 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps but that number of shots...43 shots in 5 games also isn't that much. Unsure where it ranks, quantity needs to rise too of course. 

See posts above. It's 8.8 per game(ish). In the 10 games prior we shot 8.8 times per game. Our average for the whole season is 9.7. We just don't shoot very much, and that's been true since Johnson's time.

9.74 shots per game ranks us 20th out of the 24 teams in the division. Mid table is about 12 shots per game. The most trigger happy team are Sheff Utd who have taken an average of 14.12 shots per game over the season.

It's a balance to be found.

Say you're aiming for xG of about 1.5 per game - which is a good and achievable total that suggests you can expect to score 1 or 2 a game.

You can get to 1.5 either through 6 shots of 0.25 per game, or you could take 30 shots of 0.05. In recent seasons we've trended towards the first of those options through counter attacking and strikers like Wells and Weimann waiting and taking good shots. Generally I prefer that as it's relatively easy for a keeper to save a 0.05 xG shot. A 0.25 shot is far harder.

The trouble is in recent games we've combined the two worst aspects and (two penalties aside) have ended  up on average taking 9 shots of 0.07. That's crap and you don't score.

Ultimately I'd like us to be taking 15 shots of 0.1 xG average. You see these numbers produced by top teams fairly regularly and it's a good balance of quality and quantity.

[mozo]

I don't mind Bell up front as a 1 if we play to his strengths, which to my mind means;

1. Bell on the shoulder of the centre back ready for a through ball or long ball over the top. Give him something to sprint into. 

2. Sykes and Mehmeti (or whoever) get low square balls across the 6 yard box for Bell to finish.

Recently Bell has been chasing poor long balls (too wide or two long) and we're not finding him in the box. High crosses won't help.

We've also been playing balls to Bell's feet when he's got his back to goal and defenders tight to him, which isn't what he wants.

No wonder he looks like he's struggling. I think it's the same with Mehmetti. We didn't get the ball to him quickly enough so Cardiff had time to get men over and crowd that side. Some of the balls to Sykes were much better and hence he looked more dangerous.

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, The Bard said:

We are now lightweight up front and teams know it.  Bell was bullied yesterday.  Can't really fathom why he's starting through the middle tbh.  He seems more effective playing wide.  Think Cornick may help us as a target as he is awkward and will pose different problems.  Difficulty is that it would be a change in playing style.

I don't see Scott playing deeper as a problem.  He is far superior than Williams in that role and we should be able to get enough from our 6 available attackers.

I would take Mehmeti out for Huddersfield but bring him back in for Blackpool.  Move Bell to the left, play either Cornick or Wells through the middle and Weimann into 10 role.   If we had more available defenders I'd be tempted to go 3 4 1 2.

Nor me, I think it’s his best position.

For me yesterday was the classic - players make systems / formations work, rather than the other way around. Wells has been so good as the central forward this season, whether in a two or a three.  Hoping he starts on Tuesday….but the rest of the team is virtually impossible to pick at this point in time.

[Kid in the Riot]

Was surprised our xG was so high for yesterday's game. We rarely feature this high in xG most weeks. Good that we are creating chances I guess. 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Kid in the Riot

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Was surprised our xG was so high for yesterday's game. We rarely feature this high in xG most weeks. Good that we are creating chances I guess. 

 

In all honesty, we weren't that bad at times. Had we scored first we draw at worst IMO- that was it clearance off the line, Scott chance anyway 1st half felt a big one.

[ExiledAjax]

25 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Was surprised our xG was so high for yesterday's game. We rarely feature this high in xG most weeks. Good that we are creating chances I guess. 

 

@IAmNick and I discussed this in the match thread. Infogol (where that data is from) gave Mehmeti's follow up to Scott's header a 0.65. Upon further inspection Infogol don't consider defenders or "defensive pressure" - of which there was loads - in their model.

Other models such as Opta (available via FotMob for free) do. They gave it just 0.25, and us as a whole 0.98.

For what it's worth my average of 3 sources - the two mentioned above plus one other - came out at 1.4 for the whole game. I am waiting on Experimental361 to publish his figure to get my final average. Fbref gave us 1.0.

But yes, 1.9 is high.

Edited March 5, 2023 by ExiledAjax