Problems up front??

[Harry]

Is anyone else a bit concerned that over the last 2 games we only seem to be capable of scoring from the penalty spot? 
 

Come on Nige. Sort it out!
 

[ExiledAjax]

Shot numbers and xG have largely held up to our season averages over the last ten games. Shots and shots on target are a little down but not worryingly so.

The last 2 games have been poor from that perspective but 2 games is a very small sample size from which conclusions shouldn't really be drawn.

We'll get it going again and should get back to scoring 1-2 goals per game.

[Rudolf Hucker]

21 minutes ago, Harry said:

Is anyone else a bit concerned that over the last 2 games we only seem to be capable of scoring from the penalty spot? 
 

Come on Nige. Sort it out!
 

In the last two games, I have been struck by the positive difference made to the team when the strength, guile, experience and gameplay of Wells has replaced the pace of Bell.
 

I like Sam and believe he’ll have a big future here but Nahki has know how which can only be gained over time. It’s made me appreciate Nahki all the more. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Rudolf Hucker

[Slacker]

The FA and Refs have come together and decided to issue us our backlog of declined penalties.They will be given at a rate which requires us to win games.0-0, one penalty awarded. 2-0 down,three penalties awarded or more if we miss any.Its all under control. 

[Slacker]

2 minutes ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

In the last two games, I have been struck by the positive difference made to the team when the strength, guile, experience and gameplay of Wells has replaced the pace of Wells.
 

I like Sam and believe he’ll have a big future here but Nahki has know how which can only be gained over time. It’s made me appreciate Nahki all the more. 

Another masterstroke by Nige.Replacing a player with the same player. How many managers could do that?

[joe jordans teeth]

3 minutes ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

In the last two games, I have been struck by the positive difference made to the team when the strength, guile, experience and gameplay of Wells has replaced the pace of Wells.
 

I like Sam and believe he’ll have a big future here but Nahki has know how which can only be gained over time. It’s made me appreciate Nahki all the more. 

Wasn’t sure when he first came here but he’s a ultimate pro,gets on with it even when not playing and a good lad around the young ones

[Rudolf Hucker]

4 minutes ago, Slacker said:

Another masterstroke by Nige.Replacing a player with the same player. How many managers could do that?

Bugger!

[BritAbroad]

I just think the guys need time to gel with the new signings

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by BritAbroad

[redysteadygo]

30 minutes ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

In the last two games, I have been struck by the positive difference made to the team when the strength, guile, experience and gameplay of Wells has replaced the pace of Bell.
 

I like Sam and believe he’ll have a big future here but Nahki has know how which can only be gained over time. It’s made me appreciate Nahki all the more. 

Felt Nahki's nous and experience would have got him into positions to get on the end of what felt like countless balls cut across the face of goal in the first half. Not saying he should be in front of Bell though.

[GrahamC]

I know @Harry isn’t being serious but a few of us were saying how good would we be now with Semenyo instead of Bell in yesterday’s line up.

That’s not a criticism of Sam by the way but having someone with Antoine’s strength & pace would be lethal.

FWIW I hope that Wells gets a run of starts, I don’t think it’s exactly the formation he would want to play in, but he’s a finisher & his link up play is decent enough.

Cornick presumably wasn’t signed to always be a sub & Conway will probably be the next one back, so certainly a fair few options.

[southside]

42 minutes ago, Slacker said:

The FA and Refs have come together and decided to issue us our backlog of declined penalties.They will be given at a rate which requires us to win games.0-0, one penalty awarded. 2-0 down,three penalties awarded or more if we miss any.Its all under control. 

Is anyone worried there may come a time when refs stop giving us penalties?  

[Midred]

I thought the topic was about unwanted streams.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Midred

[bcfc01]

Its the one major thing that I think could be improved - Wells to start over Bell.

I get the requirement for a bit of pace up top - but should that be to start the game, or to finish it ?

For me, Bell come on later in the game and Wells starts.

[joe jordans teeth]

13 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I know @Harry isn’t being serious but a few of us were saying how good would we be now with Semenyo instead of Bell in yesterday’s line up.

That’s not a criticism of Sam by the way but having someone with Antoine’s strength & pace would be lethal.

FWIW I hope that Wells gets a run of starts, I don’t think it’s exactly the formation he would want to play in, but he’s a finisher & his link up play is decent enough.

Cornick presumably wasn’t signed to always be a sub & Conway will probably be the next one back, so certainly a fair few options.

True but we know we had to sell him now and looking back isn’t a good thing,saying that selling super Bob so cheap still gets my goat

[old_eastender]

2 hours ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

In the last two games, I have been struck by the positive difference made to the team when the strength, guile, experience and gameplay of Wells has replaced the pace of Bell.
 

I like Sam and believe he’ll have a big future here but Nahki has know how which can only be gained over time. It’s made me appreciate Nahki all the more. 

Sam Bell's has the misfortune to find that Mehmeti is now ahead of him in the pecking order for LHS attacker. For me Sam is not suited to playing central striker, and should not be picked ahead of Wells to start in that role. 

[Sleepy1968]

1 hour ago, joe jordans teeth said:

True but we know we had to sell him now and looking back isn’t a good thing,saying that selling super Bob so cheap still gets my goat

Was Bobby Gould in charge of WBA at the time? I'm sure it was said that they'd offered us twice as much the season before.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Sleepy1968

[Red Billy]

2 hours ago, GrahamC said:

I know @Harry isn’t being serious but a few of us were saying how good would we be now with Semenyo instead of Bell in yesterday’s line up.

That’s not a criticism of Sam by the way but having someone with Antoine’s strength & pace would be lethal.

FWIW I hope that Wells gets a run of starts, I don’t think it’s exactly the formation he would want to play in, but he’s a finisher & his link up play is decent enough.

Cornick presumably wasn’t signed to always be a sub & Conway will probably be the next one back, so certainly a fair few options.

We would still be lumping long balls up and not playing through into feet.

[mozo]

2 hours ago, GrahamC said:

I know @Harry isn’t being serious but a few of us were saying how good would we be now with Semenyo instead of Bell in yesterday’s line up.

That’s not a criticism of Sam by the way but having someone with Antoine’s strength & pace would be lethal.

FWIW I hope that Wells gets a run of starts, I don’t think it’s exactly the formation he would want to play in, but he’s a finisher & his link up play is decent enough.

Cornick presumably wasn’t signed to always be a sub & Conway will probably be the next one back, so certainly a fair few options.

Bell's a finisher too. I just think we need to take more care creating the chances and either of them will be finding the net.

[Major Isewater]

3 hours ago, Slacker said:

Another masterstroke by Nige.Replacing a player with the same player. How many managers could do that?

There was a bizarre moment during the Hull game where they, apparently, substituted Traoré for Traoré. Perhaps Nige was taking notes . 

[Major Isewater]

3 hours ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

Bugger!

Not now Rudolf. 

[grifty]

2 hours ago, old_eastender said:

Sam Bell's has the misfortune to find that Mehmeti is now ahead of him in the pecking order for LHS attacker. For me Sam is not suited to playing central striker, and should not be picked ahead of Wells to start in that role. 

I think the 2 players for each position role will be;

LHS - Mehmeti & Bell

SC - Wells & Conway

RHS - Sykes & Cornick

AM - Scott & Weimann

[ExiledAjax]

I started this as a reply to one of @Kid in the Riot's match thread posts. But, I thought it might merit its own thread.

Firstly a warning. This OP IS HEAVY ON XG CHAT. If you hate or don't understand xG then look away now.

Ok so KITR properly mentioned that attack has been poor recently. I remember a few other recent posts highlighting this.

So I took a look at some numbers. Yes. Shot quality has dropped a lot in the last 5 games (including Cardiff today). Each of our shots is currently hovering at about 0.12 xG per shot over that spell (44 shots, total xG 4.55). That includes two penalties as well of course, which account for about 1.4 of that 4.55 total. So non-penalty xG per shot has been only 0.07 per shot.

Average non-penalty xG per shot across the division and across the season is approx 0.10. 

Our own non-penalty xG over the season is 0.12.

So you can see that recently our quality of shot has been very poor - in comparison to both our own record and the record of the division as a whole.

Is it a 'thing' that this coincides with Mehmeti's 5 league starts? Is there something about his play that changes the way we create quality shots? He's not affected the quantity of shots we take - we've averaged 8.8 per game compared to 8.8 in the prior 10 games, so it's only the quality that has declined since he's played.

This is just one variation though and I'm wary of attributing causation where really it's just correlation. Naismith's absence also started 5 league games ago, so that could be a contributing factor. Any other changes that might cause this drop?

A high level of shot quality is very, very important when you only take 9 shots per game, so it's really crucial that we rectify this by next season.

Edited March 4, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[ExiledAjax]

To add, our xG per shot in the 10 games prior to these last 5 was 0.15. So even though we took the same number of shots (8.8) each shot was about twice as dangerous as those in the last five games!

[Kid in the Riot]

Thanks mate, interesting.

Whilst results have been good recently, no goals from open play in four matches and just two in five league games is a legitimate concern. Maybe we are only allowed goals from open play OR penalties and not both together! 

I'd say Mehmeti maybe holding onto the ball for longer than is neccessary sometimes could be a factor. I also think we are still rubbish with the ball unless Naismith plays. And I also guess the five games coincides with the departure of Antoine, so doubtless that is a factor as he scored goals.

No Conway also doesn't help, and Cornick doesn't look like he has many goals in him.

Cause for concern for the remainder of the season. 

[GrahamC]

Prior to our mini goal drought we were relying heavily on Sykes for goals & the ones he had scored were his first at this level, so that was not sustainable.

Wells seems a bit “off” to me, whether he’s not 100% fit I don’t know but not quite there.

We are missing Conway & Cornick is still settling in, Scott is carrying a very heavy workload.

Don’t think it is going to be pretty but think we need to tough out a few games until the international break & get Naismith, Conway back.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Prior to our mini goal drought we were relying heavily on Sykes for goals & the ones he had scored were his first at this level, so that was not sustainable.

Wells seems a bit “off” to me, whether he’s not 100% fit I don’t know but not quite there.

We are missing Conway & Cornick is still settling in, Scott is carrying a very heavy workload.

Don’t think it is going to be pretty but think we need to tough out a few games until the international break & get Naismith, Conway back.

It's just interesting how all of these changes can combine to create what is effectively a team that carries only 50% of the threat that it did in the prior ten games. Really shows how fragile a thing a 'good' team is. And also why our thin squad was never going to mount a serious charge on the top 10 (let alone the top 6 ffs).

I'm not sure how much Conway and Cornick factor into it. We were threatening for a long time even when Conway was out, although we did have Semenyo during that spell, and Cornick has played so little as to be almost negligible in the stats.

I agree completely with that last paragraph though. I think it's rectifiable with the return of Naismith, Mehmeti and Cornick gelling into the squad, Sykes and Scott being freed up by other players returning.

[GrahamC]

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's just interesting how all of these changes can combine to create what is effectively a team that carries only 50% of the threat that it did in the prior ten games. Really shows how fragile a thing a 'good' team is. And also why our thin squad was never going to mount a serious charge on the top 10 (let alone the top 6 ffs).

I'm not sure how much Conway and Cornick factor into it. We were threatening for a long time even when Conway was out, although we did have Semenyo during that spell, and Cornick has played so little as to be almost negligible in the stats.

I agree completely with that last paragraph though. I think it's rectifiable with the return of Naismith, Mehmeti and Cornick gelling into the squad, Sykes and Scott being freed up by other players returning.

You’re right, but prior to Sykes’ little run it was basically Semenyo scoring (& a bit of Rob Atkinson) & we all know what’s happened there.

Plus Antoine was pretty much the complete package at Championship level, strong, quick, direct, decent with both feet & unpredictable.

That’s why he was starting at The Emirates today..

[Alessandro]

Is it just me, or isn't there an elephant in the room that no one has mentioned yet? Everyone else has been mentioned. 

I know he is a golden boy, rightly so, big potential and Bristol boy son of former player etc, so I expect pelters for this, but Bell:

Not a criticism of him directly as I'm sure he will continue to develop - but don't be blinded by his few good runs and goals, I think his overall play is nowhere near up to standard right now, nor should he be necessarily for that matter at his age and development. Dropping Wells and him playing centrally also collates with arguably our worst performances since Christmas. 

Yes he presses hard and works for the team - but it's not enough. Any quick 18/19/20 year old quick kid can run at a keeper or defender and try and put them off. He was so easily marshalled today that Cardiff could stick 2 or 3 on Mehmeti and Scott no problem whatsoever. We've got a three page thread criticising Mehmeti, if he was a 4 or 5/10 today Bell was a 2 or 3 IMO.

Yes, we should be developing players and looking to the future which he is part of but I still think he is someone who should be either a) out wide or b) coming off the bench right now - especially if we want to be a team challenging the top half and above. 

Perhaps i'm being harsh - it's not so much a criticism of him or his potential, but more how he's being used right now.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Alessandro

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

Is it just me, or isn't there an elephant in the room that no one has mentioned yet? Everyone else has been mentioned. 

I know he is a golden boy, rightly so, big potential and Bristol boy son of former player etc, so I expect pelters for this, but Bell:

Not a criticism of him directly as I'm sure he will continue to develop - but don't be blinded by his few good runs and goals, I think his overall play is nowhere near up to standard right now, nor should he be necessarily for that matter at his age and development. Dropping Wells and him playing centrally also collates with arguably our worst performances since Christmas. 

Yes he presses hard and works for the team - but it's not enough. Any quick 18/19/20 year old quick kid can run at a keeper or defender and try and put them off. He was so easily marshalled today that Cardiff could stick 2 or 3 on Mehmeti and Scott no problem whatsoever. We've got a three page thread criticising Mehmeti, if he was a 4 or 5/10 today Bell was a 2 or 3 IMO.

Yes, we should be developing players and looking to the future which he is part of but I still think he is someone who should be either a) out wide or b) coming off the bench right now - especially if we want to be a team challenging the top half and above. 

Perhaps i'm being harsh - it's not so much a criticism of him or his potential, but more how he's being used right now.

Lots to agree with their A.

Pre-match, Nige’s interview was about Bell giving us legs to stretch.  Cardiff played deep, and Bell tried to come short.  I get that, I’m okay with that.  But he rarely if ever made runs in behind, even if the space behind was limited.  Sometimes you do that to keep the defender honest, even if you run offside.  But you also create space for others in front of the defence by doing that.  That was what Bell lacked today.  No idea if Wells is being “managed” at the mo’, but Wells makes those runs (for unselfish reasons a lot of the time), and we missed it today.

The other thing is that Mehmeti needs to play narrower when the ball is on the right side of the pitch.

[ExiledAjax]

I don't think @Alessandro should get pelters for suggesting that Bell is part of the issue. It's clear there's a number of factors that have combined to weaken out attacking threat. That's worrying in a way, but also encouraging as it suggests that just a couple of positive changes could see us get back to taking dangerous shots and creating real threat.