Problems up front??

[Clutton Caveman]

On 26/02/2023 at 14:02, ExiledAjax said:

Shot numbers and xG have largely held up to our season averages over the last ten games. Shots and shots on target are a little down but not worryingly so.

The last 2 games have been poor from that perspective but 2 games is a very small sample size from which conclusions shouldn't really be drawn.

We'll get it going again and should get back to scoring 1-2 goals per game.

Its like the beginning of the season, teams work out how to play against you.

[mozo]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

What we are seeing with Bell (imho) is the norm.  Young player comes into the team, does reasonably well, gets built up / gets some slack by the fans, plays on a bit of a combo of adrenaline / naivety for half a dozen games.  At the same time opposition teams start identifying strengths and weaknesses and how to negate any threat they might have.  Last night Matt Pearson just went physical on him.  Even in a foot race, a strong arm across Bell’s body is enough to stop him driving into the box under control of the ball.  Saturday, Kipre let him drop short, didn’t give him any channels to run.

I’ve seen it so many times.

The exceptions.  Alex Scott….he’s the exception to everything isn’t he?  Tommy Conway, because I think he’s an edgy little ****er.

The challenge for the likes of Bell, is to come back strong, having now seen what “it’s all about”!

Agree with all of that. We do see with Bell some really encouraging stuff mind. Early doors when he knocked the ball past Pearson and sprinted on to it was electrifying stuff. His USP is that pace and it gives defenders a real headache. He makes good runs too, like the one to the front post which he came close with, and pulling defenders away with little darts when the likes of Scott and Mehmetti have it on the edge of the box. 

Weakness is his weakness at the moment.

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Weakness is his weakness at the moment.

Yep, I’m not sure if it’s his smiling persona, but I don’t see him two-footing your Gran like Conway would!

[ExiledAjax]

25 minutes ago, Clutton Caveman said:

Its like the beginning of the season, teams work out how to play against you.

I've revisited the numbers since that post (which was after the Hull game). Discussed in this thread (which could probably be merged with this one tbh as it discusses the same topic) @phantom

We have dropped our threat. Again last night we had 9 shots, 5 on target. That's about par for our season, even compared to when we were scoring more heavily. It is in fact a better number of on target shots than our average. But, again, each shot was generally weak - xG per shot of just 0.12. That is way off our seasonal average high which was up near 0.18 xG per shot, basically 50% more likely to become a goal. It is however better than the 0.07 non-penalty xG per shot we saw in the 5 games prior to Huddersfield. If you look solely at the figures - 9 shots, 5 on target, xG of 0.12 per shot - then last night was a pretty on brand attacking performance for Bristol city 2022/23. Had Bell scored his good chance then with the one goal it would have been a textbook display for us this season.

Where have the byeline cut-backs gone? Where have the dangerous low crosses from the channels gone? We were scoring from those in early 2023. Is it just that Semenyo has left and Naismith is injured? Were they so key to that dangerous play?

The saving grace has been that we've been defensively solid in the last 5 or 6 games. That's meant that even though we seem to have lost some cutting edge in the final third, we've restricted our opponents as well and so have taken 9 points from the last 18 at a rate of 1.5 points per game. That is absolutely fine form and is nothing to worry about at all for a mid-table side with 11 dead-rubbers left to play.

Edited March 8, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[mozo]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, I’m not sure if it’s his smiling persona, but I don’t see him two-footing your Gran like Conway would!

We can rest assured that Nige and Curtis are trying to instil some grit into not just Bell but all of our nice young lads. Bell will be getting that drilled into him. Be a nightmare for those defenders. 

[The Bard]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

What we are seeing with Bell (imho) is the norm.  Young player comes into the team, does reasonably well, gets built up / gets some slack by the fans, plays on a bit of a combo of adrenaline / naivety for half a dozen games.  At the same time opposition teams start identifying strengths and weaknesses and how to negate any threat they might have.  Last night Matt Pearson just went physical on him.  Even in a foot race, a strong arm across Bell’s body is enough to stop him driving into the box under control of the ball.  Saturday, Kipre let him drop short, didn’t give him any channels to run.

I’ve seen it so many times.

The exceptions.  Alex Scott….he’s the exception to everything isn’t he?  Tommy Conway, because I think he’s an edgy little ****er.

The challenge for the likes of Bell, is to come back strong, having now seen what “it’s all about”!

Great post. All those wetting themselves about Wells not starting need to see decisions in a more longterm context. We are 13th and have a goal difference of nil. We couldn't be more mid table if we tried. Manager should use that situation with a view to the future. That means giving Bell his head and playing Mehmeti. It will probably involve starts for the likes of Taylor Clarke and maybe 1 or 2 others. See if they're ready to become squad members next season or need a league loan.

[petehinton]

4 hours ago, mozo said:

If that's the case it'll be intriguing to see what type we go for. If you could clone Ivan Toney I go for that (Ivan Cloney?)

As much as I'd personally like our team to be filled with homegrown players, I don't think Nige will worry about blocking the Conway/Bell pathway if there's a goalscorer out there that he likes.

I’ve said before, might be out the price range dependant on what happens to them, but Jerry Yates at Blackpool would be perfect for this system imo

[spudski]

Is the future front three seen as Sykes, Conway and Bell...playing as a fast, attacking, high intensity, three pronged attack?

So far I can't see how Cornick fits in with our high intensity style. I can with the experience and style of Wells and Weimann. 

Can Bell and Conway replicate the partnership and understanding they had at academy level at Championship level. I'd like to think so from what I've seen so far. 

Again...it's the experienced head needed on the pitch needed...which we've seen with Wells.

 

[mozo]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

Is the future front three seen as Sykes, Conway and Bell...playing as a fast, attacking, high intensity, three pronged attack?

So far I can't see how Cornick fits in with our high intensity style. I can with the experience and style of Wells and Weimann. 

Can Bell and Conway replicate the partnership and understanding they had at academy level at Championship level. I'd like to think so from what I've seen so far. 

Again...it's the experienced head needed on the pitch needed...which we've seen with Wells.

 

Cornick is supposed to be a mobile, industrious forward, and has been brought tin to add a bit of height in the number 9 role. Wells obviously got the nod ahead of him yesterday, but that might not always be the case.

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Percy Pig said:

You say that, but having watched the highlights so I can reassess whether my first thoughts were justified, I thought Bell was very influential first half.

He provided the interception and quick reverse pass to Scott that set up the Wells half chance.

He provided the cross after some good wing play and interplay with Jay for the Penalty that should have been given on Sykes.

The run for his chance is absolutely brilliant and as I said in the MDT the finish is harder than it looks, he's just beyond the front post and the ball is coming from a funny angle to go across goal. Probably should score it but not many players in our team can make that run in the first place.

If Sykes hadn't have got his studs stuck in the ground Sam's run was perfect for a tap in. One toe away from a big chance and again, the run is important there. 

Great hold up play at the front post and lay off at thr corner that led to Sykes' header

His run creates the space for Sykes second half shot that was actually a really decent chance.

 

Yes, he tired and it was right he came off but these minutes are going to be so important to him going forward. There is 100% a player in there that will succeed on the left for us. Just needs to improve his first touch a bit. He'd get away with some of his touches at 23's level, so game time and patience will be the best learning  curve to fix that.

 

Mine was a general comment re Bell, not necessarily last night, where he did fine / well…in a good team performance (whilst on the pitch).

[Gert Mare]

I would be inclined to bring on Weimann to go up top as opposed to out wide.

I know that he has been short of game time recently, but he hit the net 22 times last season and right now we need to find goals from open play.

We are missing players now through injury unfortunately and the new boys still need to find their feet and gel with the rest of the team.

I thought that Pring had an excellent game last night filling in the central defensive role and he still managed to bring the ball out well too.

We look safe now and the play offs were only ever a slight possibility, but with our latest injury woes it's more about players getting some game time experience.

We're just missing that clinical edge right now which I think Weimann would be able to fill if he was more central.

[spudski]

3 hours ago, mozo said:

Cornick is supposed to be a mobile, industrious forward, and has been brought tin to add a bit of height in the number 9 role. Wells obviously got the nod ahead of him yesterday, but that might not always be the case.

So far...'mobile and industrious' seems to have missed him by. No doubt has talent from previous clubs, but is taking time to fit here.

[eardun]

On 05/03/2023 at 16:01, Dr Balls said:

This lack of goals recently has also affected Wells. Remember before the 2 penalties he hadn’t scored a goal for 8 matches. With the exception of our recent run playing 4-3-3, our better runs up front since Nige has been in charge have been with 2 upfront and Weimann, playing in behind, whether the 2 were Martin and Semenyo or Wells and Conway. 

Just playing one through the middle upfront can be hard for that player, especially if the team doesn’t play to the player’s strengths. Some play better with their back to goal providing hold up play for others to run through e.g. Martin, while others benefit from through balls past the defender to chase e.g. Wells. Ask each to do the opposite and you won’t get the best from them. Whatever way that role is played, it needs some upper body strength and that’s where Sam Bell is currently lacking.

As for wide players in a front 3, they also need to act as an additional player in the middle when the ball is coming in from the other wing. That’s exactly what happened for Sykes against Birmingham. Plus I have some sympathy for Mehmeti. He could easily already have 2 goals for us. He was unlucky not to score at Sunderland with the shot that the keeper pushed into the post, and again yesterday against Cardiff.

I agree with this. Just said similar on Huddersfield thread. I’d like to see us go back to playing two up front closer together v Blackpool. I think both Wells and Cornick would value the closer support. I think you can still do that playing 4 at the back, e.g. 4312 (or even even 4222 or 4132)