What will be the expectations for next season?

[Dan Robin]

Another step forward, so...Top10?

[glynriley]

On 15/05/2023 at 16:21, TommyD68 said:

It’s going to be extremely competitive next season, with the likes of Southampton, two of Leeds, Forest, Everton or Leicester joining them.. West Brom, Norwich, Watford etc. Teams with big budgets that we will struggle to compete with. Top half finish would be punching above our weight in my opinion, either way I’m intrigued to see what happens! Saying that Luton have punched well above their weight for the last two seasons, so who knows  

West Brom won’t have a big budget. Parachute payments are over and they have a big loan to pay off. 

[DaveInSA]

On 15/05/2023 at 16:21, TommyD68 said:

It’s going to be extremely competitive next season, with the likes of Southampton, two of Leeds, Forest, Everton or Leicester joining them.. West Brom, Norwich, Watford etc. Teams with big budgets that we will struggle to compete with. Top half finish would be punching above our weight in my opinion, either way I’m intrigued to see what happens! Saying that Luton have punched well above their weight for the last two seasons, so who knows  

Luton were a tier one side for most of my school years - their fans might say we're getting back to where we belong. Doing what they did for one season is a fluke. Doing it again isn't by chance it's by design. They have a system, with players that fit it like a glove and they are well coached.

Their progression in the past 6 seasons is staggering.

[Tinmans Love Child]

For me success will be finishing in or around the playoffs, if we just miss out then that's the way it goes, but I really want us to be at least playing for something on the last day of the season.  The improvements made in the last two years, plus hopefully some good signings, make me reasonably confident, and NP has had 2 years to get his ducks in a row so now it's time to show what he's really made of!

[pillred]

5 minutes ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

For me success will be finishing in or around the playoffs, if we just miss out then that's the way it goes, but I really want us to be at least playing for something on the last day of the season.  The improvements made in the last two years, plus hopefully some good signings, make me reasonably confident, and NP has had 2 years to get his ducks in a row so now it's time to show what he's really made of!

Too many posters on here seem to be happy with a mid-table finish and make all sorts of excuses as to why that's the case, I'm of the same opinion as you it's about time we showed some real progress treading water is just not enough after two years some improvements should be expected especially with so much young talent coming through, if Pearson is as good as some on here seem to think he is. 

[22A]

10 hours ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

 It's the hope of day one every season that keeps us going and gets killed off when the realisation some time during the season that we just not there yet. But one year we will get it right I sure of that. Just which  year 

75/76 season; City had beaten Blackburn 1-0. I was asked what was today's game like. I replied Not vey good, but somehow we're top of the table.

[Davefevs]

28 minutes ago, pillred said:

Too many posters on here seem to be happy with a mid-table finish and make all sorts of excuses as to why that's the case, I'm of the same opinion as you it's about time we showed some real progress treading water is just not enough after two years some improvements should be expected especially with so much young talent coming through, if Pearson is as good as some on here seem to think he is. 

This is the season (all things being equal) where we should see the progress you desire.  Nige himself admits the foundations have been built.  This coming season is the one to focus “performance” on the pitch.  Up until now it’s been swimming against the tide of a financial mess.

Assuming we recruit as per the words from Nige and Tins, then we do indeed need to be “in the mix”.  We showed twice this season (just gone) that with a near full fit squad, we can start to get points around the rate required to be in the mix.  Both periods followed poorer runs where we were stretched too thin.  The recruitment objective is to improve quality and depth (within a still small squad).

If you want to call various posters comments over the past 18-24 months “excuses” that’s fine.

[Jimbo123]

9 hours ago, Dan Robin said:

Another step forward, so...Top10?

Top 10 without a shout of the playoffs isn't enough - if we recruit well this summer (early signs are promising), there's no reason we can't be in and around it next year.

So many clubs are much quicker than us with it, I would currently put money on Ipswich finishing above us next season and I wouldn't be surprised if that was in the top six. That'll be the latest one to do it, Sunderland did this season.

[DaveInSA]

4 minutes ago, Jimbo123 said:

Top 10 without a shout of the playoffs isn't enough - if we recruit well this summer (early signs are promising), there's no reason we can't be in and around it next year.

So many clubs are much quicker than us with it, I would currently put money on Ipswich finishing above us next season and I wouldn't be surprised if that was in the top six. That'll be the latest one to do it, Sunderland did this season.

We had this opportunity. And Steve bottled it. Or rather, he didn’t like being told what to do by Cotts and shut down recruitment.

and the rest as they say is history. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

25 minutes ago, DaveInSA said:

We had this opportunity. And Steve bottled it. Or rather, he didn’t like being told what to do by Cotts and shut down recruitment.

and the rest as they say is history. 

There is some truth although we were possibly walking a slightly fine line with FFP in 2015-16.

The stadium wasn't yet finished so revenue and gates still a bit restricted, there was a £13m one year adjusted loss threshold which if exceeded would have led to a transfer embargo in 2016-17 If we were still at this level..all the same we started 2015-16 with a weaker squad than we came up with which is quite inexcusable!

[Andre_The_Giant]

There is too much cautiousness and lack of hope in the above. We’ve never been a very successful club and our top flight days are way in the past, but our history doesn’t define us.

Playoffs should be a minimum goal.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

There is some truth although we were possibly walking a slightly fine line with FFP in 2015-16.

The stadium wasn't yet finished so revenue and gates still a bit restricted, there was a £13m one year adjusted loss threshold which if exceeded would have led to a transfer embargo in 2016-17 If we were still at this level..all the same we started 2015-16 with a weaker squad than we came up with which is quite inexcusable!

Was there a single year £13m constraint?  I thought it was rolling 3 years and would include Lg1 years of required, therefore in the summer of 2016, our 3 years were (inc 2015/16 projection):

• 13-14 £9.545m minus Depreciation and Academy
• 14-15 £9.954m ditto
• 15-16 £14.929m ditto

So probably £7-9m spare…which had we signed Maguire and Gray would’ve seen their fees spread throughout their contract term and still headroom.

Those 15/16 costs included several loans, the likes of Baker and Moore unlikely to have been cheap, so you’d need to remove those before adding in Maguire and Gray for example.

[Swede]

Next season the Championship will be a lot harder with Saints, Leicester & probably dirty leeds in the mix. Add in Watford, Ipswich, Sunderland and that makes it even harder but with the clearing of the decks and post the financial mess Nige inherited its not unrealistic to think we could be pushing top six

[Mr Popodopolous]

44 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Was there a single year £13m constraint?  I thought it was rolling 3 years and would include Lg1 years of required, therefore in the summer of 2016, our 3 years were (inc 2015/16 projection):

• 13-14 £9.545m minus Depreciation and Academy
• 14-15 £9.954m ditto
• 15-16 £14.929m ditto

So probably £7-9m spare…which had we signed Maguire and Gray would’ve seen their fees spread throughout their contract term and still headroom.

Those 15/16 costs included several loans, the likes of Baker and Moore unlikely to have been cheap, so you’d need to remove those before adding in Maguire and Gray for example.

If it was 3 years not worried at all. I do believe though that there was one final assessment of the 1 year rule in December 2016. First 3 year assessment I thought was the period ending 2016-17.

That said the counterfactual is that Maguire and Gray in, less loanees, Cotts doesn't get sacked as he is happier and the team doing better. Perhaps it would have worked and then he can invest more freely as the income comes up properly in 2016-17 with the completed redevelopment etc. There is definitely an element of wasted opportunity here without doubt.

                Fielding 

       Ayling Flint Maguire

Little Smith Pack Freeman Bryan

               Gray Kodjia

Yes I think that side could have done well. Williams 1st reserve, Wagstaff, Reid, Burns Wilbraham, Agard too. Plan B potential in the case of bits of depth. That side can also switch in game although squad a bit thin.

                     Fielding

      Little/Ayling Maguire Flint Williams

                 Smith Pack

        Kodjia Freeman Bryan

                        Gray

Yep lots of scope for in game switches or individual personnel switches. Freeman can move along the front or drop back a bit too.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

Yes, you are indeed spot on re 16-17 being the first 3 year rolling cycle….forgotten that.  It looks like with allowables we came in pretty bang on £13m!!!  By design???

When I look back at the signings we made:

• Jimmy Kodjia
• Ryan Fredericks (in and out) / replaced by Elliott Bennett (loan)
• Liam Moore (loan)
• Nathan Baker (loan)
• Callum Robinson (loan)
• Simon Cox (loan)
• Ben Hamer (loan) / replaced by Richard O’Donnell (loan made perm)

then:

• Lee Tomlin (loan)
• Alex Pearce (loan)
• Peter Odemwingie (loan)
• Adam Matthews (loan)
• Ben Gladwin (loan)
• Scott Golbourne
• Arnold Garita (£50k punt)

Thats a helluva lot of cost that it’s likely Cotts / Burt would’ve used more efficiently had he made those initial signings plus others.  Might’ve lost £14.9m, but with more player value flowing into the following seasons…and leveraged like Kodjia.

We wasted a big opportunity / momentum.

 

[maxjak]

If we fail to win the Championship by at least 6 points I will be depressed, aghast, and hysterical ....and intend to rip my season ticket into a million pieces!!       

[Mr Popodopolous]

12 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yes, you are indeed spot on re 16-17 being the first 3 year rolling cycle….forgotten that.  It looks like with allowables we came in pretty bang on £13m!!!  By design???

When I look back at the signings we made:

• Jimmy Kodjia
• Ryan Fredericks (in and out) / replaced by Elliott Bennett (loan)
• Liam Moore (loan)
• Nathan Baker (loan)
• Callum Robinson (loan)
• Simon Cox (loan)
• Ben Hamer (loan) / replaced by Richard O’Donnell (loan made perm)

then:

• Lee Tomlin (loan)
• Alex Pearce (loan)
• Peter Odemwingie (loan)
• Adam Matthews (loan)
• Ben Gladwin (loan)
• Scott Golbourne
• Arnold Garita (£50k punt)

Thats a helluva lot of cost that it’s likely Cotts / Burt would’ve used more efficiently had he made those initial signings plus others.  Might’ve lost £14.9m, but with more player value flowing into the following seasons…and leveraged like Kodjia.

We wasted a big opportunity / momentum.

 

I forgot about Fredericks especially and some of the lesser loanees. That's a chaotic recruitment policy tbh. I like the idea of a couple of good loanees to round it off but that's mad. Would we have still signed Kodjia I wonder.

Assume Maguire, Gray and Kodjia in. Who then loanees or otherwise.

Maybe Maguire, one of Moore and Baker if either, Gray and Kodjia permanent. Fredericks in and then out , Bennett in. Definitely no Cox, perhaps no Robinson.

3 or 4 of the January ones no longer required and neither would Cotts out, Johnson in which represents another cost saving- yes it would have worked in hindsight and provided value moving forward as you say.

[Davefevs]

24 minutes ago, maxjak said:

If we fail to win the Championship by at least 6 points I will be depressed, aghast, and hysterical ....and intend to rip my season ticket into a million pieces!!       

How do you rip up your phone wallet application?

[Kingswood Robin]

1 hour ago, Swede said:

Next season the Championship will be a lot harder with Saints, Leicester & probably dirty leeds in the mix. Add in Watford, Ipswich, Sunderland and that makes it even harder but with the clearing of the decks and post the financial mess Nige inherited its not unrealistic to think we could be pushing top six

He's certainly done a good job so far and I hope it continues. As for the Championship, 3 teams always come up and 3 always come down. I can't see why the teams coming up would be better than us. If Southampton/Leicester/Leeds are that strong they can take the top 3 places. We can concentrate on moving from 14th up to 6th-8th, hopefully.

[pillred]

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

This is the season (all things being equal) where we should see the progress you desire.  Nige himself admits the foundations have been built.  This coming season is the one to focus “performance” on the pitch.  Up until now it’s been swimming against the tide of a financial mess.

Assuming we recruit as per the words from Nige and Tins, then we do indeed need to be “in the mix”.  We showed twice this season (just gone) that with a near full fit squad, we can start to get points around the rate required to be in the mix.  Both periods followed poorer runs where we were stretched too thin.  The recruitment objective is to improve quality and depth (within a still small squad).

If you want to call various posters comments over the past 18-24 months “excuses” that’s fine.

Some of the excuses had merit, but injuries aside we can now no longer really blame past managerial incompetence, it's been 2 years of the present management team and is now nearly a completely different bunch of players coached by NP, as you say next season will be the acid test, I realise we might lose Scott but who we get to replace him or others is now down to him and the present setup.

Edited May 17, 2023 by pillred

[The turtle]

Playoff mix, like a real challenge.

It's not enough to make small progress, year on year.. to then be broken up by the big clubs buying power in a few years; healthier bank balance, square one on the pitch isn't why you watch football. (Plus before you know it , hola relegation battle)

Promotion is not the be all and end all.

But to be a successful season, go into is game 42-43 knowing if you win those last 3 or 4, you're top 6.

Edited May 17, 2023 by The turtle

[CHIPLEY RED]

5 hours ago, The turtle said:

Playoff mix, like a real challenge.

It's not enough to make small progress, year on year.. to then be broken up by the big clubs buying power in a few years; healthier bank balance, square one on the pitch isn't why you watch football. (Plus before you know it , hola relegation battle)

Promotion is not the be all and end all.

But to be a successful season, go into is game 42-43 knowing if you win those last 3 or 4, you're top 6.

Same for me.

Love to get automatic promotion but if we are in with a shout of a playoff place come April next year I would take that.

Top 10 is absolute minimum.