International Break - I’m Bored - Random Stats

[Davefevs]

After 5 rounds, no team has played more of the current top half than City…4 teams.

Swansea and Huddersfield have played 4 too.

Watford have only played 1 team in the top half, and that team is 10th.

West Brom will face their first current top half team of the season this Saturday…us!

[reddoh]

 

 

 

 

life is more important than stats 

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, reddoh said:

 

 

 

 

life is more important than stats 

In 92.46% of cases.

[Red Skin]

Always hard to know who the decent teams are this early in the season.  What's the xG league table look like? 

(That'll give you a bit more to occupy yourself @Davefevs)

[TedsHeadIs Red]

Apparently, 82.46% of statistics are made up 

[Davefevs]

14 minutes ago, Red Skin said:

Always hard to know who the decent teams are this early in the season.  What's the xG league table look like? 

(That'll give you a bit more to occupy yourself @Davefevs)

under-performers v xG:

Middlesbrough

Watford

over-performing v xG:

Preston (but best defence)

Hull C

Plymouth A

[Red Skin]

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

under-performers v xG:

Middlesbrough

Watford

over-performing v xG:

Preston (but best defence)

Hull C

Plymouth A

Wow!  All delivered and tied up with a fancy bow before I've finished my breakfast!!

[ExiledAjax]

23 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

under-performers v xG:

Middlesbrough

Watford

over-performing v xG:

Preston (but best defence)

Hull C

Plymouth A

But the biggest underperformers in terms of xG v goals scored is...Bristol City. xG of 8.5 but only 5 goals. 

We're a curious team though as the bulk of that xG has come in 2 of our 5 league games - Hull and Swansea. In each of the other 3 games we've registered xG of less than 1.

So when we're good, we're really good, but when we're bad we're just ineffective.

Still. I'm about 5 decent games away from revising my pre-season prediction up by about 2 or 3 positions. If we keep regularly registering xG and xGA figures like the the last two games then we'll have a good season.

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

But the biggest underperformers in terms of xG v goals scored is...Bristol City. xG of 8.5 but only 5 goals. 

We're a curious team though as the bulk of that xG has come in 2 of our 5 league games - Hull and Swansea. In each of the other 3 games we've registered xG of less than 1.

So when we're good, we're really good, but when we're bad we're just ineffective.

Still. I'm about 5 decent games away from revising my pre-season prediction up by about 2 or 3 positions. If we keep regularly registering xG and xGA figures like the the last two games then we'll have a good season.

@Red Skin now if you’d asked?

@ExiledAjax ideally, a combo of both tables would be good!  The big questions with all of the xG / over / under stuff is which way does a team “regress to its mean”?

Does City’s attack stop being cold, or do we create less xG, etc.

Thats the fun!

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

 The big questions with all of the xG / over / under stuff is which way does a team “regress to its mean”?

Does City’s attack stop being cold, or do we create less xG, etc.

Thats the fun!

The general thinking is that a team should move/track toward its xG number. So, in our case you'd reasonably expect us to see an up tick in goals scored. A couple more games where we stick xG of 2.5+ on the board but only score once or twice...and we will start getting noticed. 

It's interesting because if you look at our final games of last season there's a similar pattern. Those final ten games face aggregate xG of 12.45, but with a maximum of 2.45 (Boro at home 2-2) and a minimum of 0.46 (Luton away 1-0 loss). In half those games we posted xG of 1 or less, and in two we registered more than 2.0. So very hot or very cold.

For contrast the ten games prior to that were far more consistent, and xGA was also pretty consistent across all 20, so it really was only in our attack that we saw this wild divergence.

Usual caveats of small sample size, problem of xG being measured in increments of 0.01 and goals in increments of 1.0 being given of course.

[Red Skin]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Red Skin now if you’d asked?

@ExiledAjax ideally, a combo of both tables would be good!  The big questions with all of the xG / over / under stuff is which way does a team “regress to its mean”?

Does City’s attack stop being cold, or do we create less xG, etc.

Thats the fun!

Without an obvious midfielder like Alex Scott that can carry the ball and break the lines, it seem to me that plan at home is for the full backs to press high and attack.  Pring's failure to do this, which he has acknowledged himself, has cost him game time.   

Williams' performances alongside Knight are encouraging.  Hopefully, as their confidence grows they will be braver on the ball.  Always good to have Naismith there to find a pass, and if there is space opening up I've been very impressed with Dickie's forward passing.  

Setting myself up for some pelters, but if we can execute the plan I feel confident things with improve especially against more forward thinking teams.

[Lorenzos Only Goal]

29 minutes ago, Red Skin said:

Without an obvious midfielder like Alex Scott that can carry the ball and break the lines, it seem to me that plan at home is for the full backs to press high and attack.  Pring's failure to do this, which he has acknowledged himself, has cost him game time.   

Williams' performances alongside Knight are encouraging.  Hopefully, as their confidence grows they will be braver on the ball.  Always good to have Naismith there to find a pass, and if there is space opening up I've been very impressed with Dickie's forward passing.  

Setting myself up for some pelters, but if we can execute the plan I feel confident things with improve especially against more forward thinking teams.

I still think Ayman Benarous assuming he's not a different player, assuming he's fit and strong certainty showed up well in the games he played.  I am hoping that he's not a different player now as he for me is a good potential answer to the creative problem.

I hope he's well and on his way to recovery.

[Major Isewater]

14 hours ago, Davefevs said:

After 5 rounds, no team has played more of the current top half than City…4 teams.

Swansea and Huddersfield have played 4 too.

Watford have only played 1 team in the top half, and that team is 10th.

West Brom will face their first current top half team of the season this Saturday…us!

They are perhaps there because they beat us.? 

[Davefevs]

@Red Skin

@ExiledAjax

more playing…Goal Difference (Actual v xG) plus a table of who’s hot (over-perf) and who’s cold (under-perf)

Southampton and City are the only two teams in the top-half under-perf their xG Goal Difference, so if we can track our xG we can pick up some places.

Middlesbrough are a huge outlier, xG goal diff circa +2, yet actual goal diff -7.

[ExiledAjax]

53 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Red Skin

@ExiledAjax

more playing…Goal Difference (Actual v xG) plus a table of who’s hot (over-perf) and who’s cold (under-perf)

Southampton and City are the only two teams in the top-half under-perf their xG Goal Difference, so if we can track our xG we can pick up some places.

Middlesbrough are a huge outlier, xG goal diff circa +2, yet actual goal diff -7.

To put a positive spin on things - it shows that even without investment in a striker we are actually producing threatening football that is at times leading to a high chance of scoring multiple goals. As I highlighted above though, we need to do it more consistently. I've often said that I'd rather have a striker who scores once in each of fifteen games than one who scores a hat-trick in each of five. The former is more likely to gain points because league football rewards sustainable mediocrity more than inconsistent excellence. Currently, across the small sample size of five, we've looked more like the latter.

Boro are interesting, and hopefully they stick with Carrick as those numbers suggest that he's producing decent football but not getting the breaks.

Ps. I think this graphic could benefit from a line of best fit - ie a 1:1 diagonal running bottom left to top right. Over the season we expect to see teams move towards that line, with those toward the top right topping the table, and those toward the bottom left propping it up.

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ps. I think this graphic could benefit from a line of best fit - ie a 1:1 diagonal running bottom left to top right. Over the season we expect to see teams move towards that line, with those toward the top right topping the table, and those toward the bottom left propping it up.

You’d think that was easy to do in tableau, but it’s a bloody ball-ache to do - dual axis, merge axis type crap.

It does have its own in-built “analysis / trend ” line that runs in the direction you suggest but not at 1:1 angle.

But as it’s you, I did it!

 

[ExiledAjax]

55 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

You’d think that was easy to do in tableau, but it’s a bloody ball-ache to do - dual axis, merge axis type crap.

It does have its own in-built “analysis / trend ” line that runs in the direction you suggest but not at 1:1 angle.

But as it’s you, I did it!

 

Ha. I assumed you'd just get your Sharpie out.

[redkev]

Who on asschat is there Davefevs ? ( Henbury Gas ) 
surely every team has one on there forum ( not as good as Dave mind) 

[Davefevs]

Here’s another nerdy chart.

I’ve felt since our time in the Champ that we concede chances in bunches, ie aren’t always able to take the sting out of our opponents.

I have no real measure, so decided to take each shot / chance conceded and see how many minutes it was from the last one.  There are a few nuances, e,g, the first chance of the game has no predecessor, injury time, e.g. is 49th minutes in first half injury time or early second half, etc.

Each shot is plotted by the minute (of the half) it occurred and how many mins it was after the last chance.  There are a few tables summarising on the right.

I’ve no idea whether this will be conclusive, probably not, but I’ll track over the season.

 

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s another nerdy chart.

I’ve felt since our time in the Champ that we concede chances in bunches, ie aren’t always able to take the sting out of our opponents.

I have no real measure, so decided to take each shot / chance conceded and see how many minutes it was from the last one.  There are a few nuances, e,g, the first chance of the game has no predecessor, injury time, e.g. is 49th minutes in first half injury time or early second half, etc.

Each shot is plotted by the minute (of the half) it occurred and how many mins it was after the last chance.  There are a few tables summarising on the right.

I’ve no idea whether this will be conclusive, probably not, but I’ll track over the season.

This is a nice distraction from the meaningless football match on tonight.  

Is it right to say that 50% of chances conceded come less than 5 minutes after the previous one? If so...is that in anyway significant? There being only 9 5 minute blocks in each half it feels like it's kind of a "huh, yeh, of course" kind of thing. I think it's beyond my maths to calculate that.

Likewise, can you do the same for our chances...the overlay to see if we are attacking in those lulls where we aren't conceding chances? 

It feels like this could tell you a lot if combined with other stuff like PPDA and opponent xG?

[Davefevs]

Yes, 32 / 53 chances come 0-5 (less than 6) mins after the previous.

You can’t see it on the screenshot, but if you click on any “mark” with 0 mins, I give a little description of the preceding chance, e.g. McNamara blocked shot following Saville’s free-kick saved by O’Leary (Millwall).

I will do City equivalent….we’ve had a few melees this season.

It probably is “huh, so what”, but it was something I wanted to look at.  Could be a case of:

https://medium.com/@daniel.christensen/does-nicholas-cage-really-cause-drowning-5be210fd0393#:~:text=In other words%2C we are,are cautious about attributing causality.

[ExiledAjax]

18 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yes, 32 / 53 chances come 0-5 (less than 6) mins after the previous.

You can’t see it on the screenshot, but if you click on any “mark” with 0 mins, I give a little description of the preceding chance, e.g. McNamara blocked shot following Saville’s free-kick saved by O’Leary (Millwall).

I will do City equivalent….we’ve had a few melees this season.

It probably is “huh, so what”, but it was something I wanted to look at.  Could be a case of:

https://medium.com/@daniel.christensen/does-nicholas-cage-really-cause-drowning-5be210fd0393#:~:text=In other words%2C we are,are cautious about attributing causality.

Interesting. It's possible I am being cautious there, especially as it's quite possible that creating one chance/taking a shot in football naturally makes it easier to make/take another. The ball is already near the opponent's goal, your blood is up, the crowd are shouting, there's a rebound, the goalie spills it, or something else happens, and one shot leads to another. 

[Davefevs]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Interesting. It's possible I am being cautious there, especially as it's quite possible that creating one chance/taking a shot in football naturally makes it easier to make/take another. The ball is already near the opponent's goal, your blood is up, the crowd are shouting, there's a rebound, the goalie spills it, or something else happens, and one shot leads to another. 

There are also nuances like Preston not creating a single chance in the first half, but I decided to use time since the start of the half…just in case at some point I wanna see if we trend to be caught cold!

I could filter in / out rebounds too.

As I said a bit of “I wonder”…but far from scientific.  

[chinapig]

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yes, 32 / 53 chances come 0-5 (less than 6) mins after the previous.

You can’t see it on the screenshot, but if you click on any “mark” with 0 mins, I give a little description of the preceding chance, e.g. McNamara blocked shot following Saville’s free-kick saved by O’Leary (Millwall).

I will do City equivalent….we’ve had a few melees this season.

It probably is “huh, so what”, but it was something I wanted to look at.  Could be a case of:

https://medium.com/@daniel.christensen/does-nicholas-cage-really-cause-drowning-5be210fd0393#:~:text=In other words%2C we are,are cautious about attributing causality.

Once you added a line of best fit I began to wonder about correlating variables but I have no idea which ones! Probably nothing to see here then in a statistical sense but that doesn't mean that tracking the trends isn't useful.

It goes without saying though that you would use the Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation.

[BS4 on Tour...]

23 hours ago, Davefevs said:

After 5 rounds ...

Mate, you know I think the world of you - but ‘after 5 rounds’ - are we in America? What next? ‘Game day 7’? ‘Match up number 11’? ‘The Robins at The Tigers’?! Help!

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, chinapig said:

Once you added a line of best fit I began to wonder about correlating variables but I have no idea which ones! Probably nothing to see here then in a statistical sense but that doesn't mean that tracking the trends isn't useful.

It goes without saying though that you would use the Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation.

If only Howard Kendall was manager, eh?

1 hour ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Mate, you know I think the world of you - but ‘after 5 rounds’ - are we in America? What next? ‘Game day 7’? ‘Match up number 11’? ‘The Robins at The Tigers’?! Help!

Wait til I start putting the away team first and @ instead of versus!

[Davefevs]

@ExiledAjax

city chances!

 

[marcofisher]

On 12/09/2023 at 10:11, Lorenzos Only Goal said:

I still think Ayman Benarous assuming he's not a different player, assuming he's fit and strong certainty showed up well in the games he played.  I am hoping that he's not a different player now as he for me is a good potential answer to the creative problem.

I hope he's well and on his way to recovery.

I think it’s very optimistic to think that he will be anything to us this season even if he is back on the grass. He has done his ACL twice in a row and had his development stifled significantly. It could take years to get back to any sort of level and he might find it hard now to cope with the rigours of the modern game.

[Red Skin]

On 12/09/2023 at 10:11, Lorenzos Only Goal said:

I still think Ayman Benarous assuming he's not a different player, assuming he's fit and strong certainty showed up well in the games he played.  I am hoping that he's not a different player now as he for me is a good potential answer to the creative problem.

I hope he's well and on his way to recovery.

I'd completely forgotten about him. Yes, he did look good in some games and was amazing in some of the younger teams. Hope he regains his fitness and it hasn't affected him. 

[Always red]

Stats mean absolutely b****r all without three things we've missed at home for a while

Decent entertainment, the ball hitting the net regularly and three points

Oh and a bouncing atmosphere (that's 4 things then!) 

COYR's 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Always red