Liam Manning first 5 games- hopes and expectations?

[lenred]

12 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Next 5 games.

Blackburn (A)

Sunderland (H)

Hull (H)

Watford (A)

Birmingham (A)

The 5 before the January window. How many might we be looking at, how many should we be looking at?

I won't make another poll but if anyone else wants to.

8 points for me.  7 at a push.  

[Fordy62]

On 10/11/2023 at 19:30, Fordy62 said:

This is weird isn’t it? I’m not sure we’ve ever been in this position before or are likely to be again. 

A new manager has come in when the reality is we didn’t need one. The team were playing fine. They were playing for the manager and we were all reasonably happy. It’s always the case that we’ve been playing on the poor side when a new manager comes in, so there really isn’t a new manager bounce for us to hope for as there normally is.  So realistically what am I to want? I don’t know. Do I realistically think LM can come in and step us up a gear or two? I’m not sure that’s possible… I just hope he does well but I am very very worried… and if you’re wondering why… just see Birmingham*
 

 

*NB I realise that there are a 101 reasons why we’re not comparable with B’ham, mainly because Manning appears to be there on merit, but the changing managers when you don’t need to us such a massive gamble. 
 

edit: to answer the question, I’m going to say I’ll be really disappointed with fewer than 7. 

Disappointed it is then.

[bcfc01]

FWIW I think we have a good chance of wins at Blackburn and Birmingham.

[Leabrook]

We are now at the stage where, say, 6 points from the next 4 games would get different reactions from certain posters  if Manning achieved it or Pearson achieved it.  There is the Pearson Tribe and the Manning Gang.  All a bit weird if you ask me

Edited December 10, 2023 by Leabrook

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, Leabrook said:

We are now at the stage where, say, 6 points from the next 4 games would get different reactions from certain posters  if Manning achieved it or Pearson achieved it.  There is the Pearson Tribe and the Manning Gang.  All a bit weird if you ask me

Is what we got last season from the equivalent fixtures.

[The Coach]

30 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Next 5 games.

Blackburn (A) - Draw

Sunderland (H) - Loss

Hull (H) - Draw

Watford (A) - Win

Birmingham (A) Win

The 5 before the January window. How many might we be looking at, how many should we be looking at?

I won't make another poll but if anyone else wants to.

Works out 8 points for me in the next 5 games

Have a feeling Birmingham may actually result in 0 points as they appear one of our bogey teams in recent seasons 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, The Coach said:

Works out 8 points for me in the next 5 games

Have a feeling Birmingham may actually result in 0 points as they appear one of our bogey teams in recent seasons 

Birmingham have been a problem team for a while over a long period albeit in 2017-18 we beat them 3-1 at AG. As well as 4-2 last year when Semenyo was in his swansong. 

More relevant to this, while we lose there a lot we won there in 2018-19, drew in 2019-20 and won behind closed doors 3-0 in the Covid year early in NP's time here.

[Supersonic Robin]

34 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

Personally I can’t see us winning another  game until the New Year, the next 6 matches including Millwall on New Years Day are not going to be easy. Still we’ll be all set for League One, with League One budget and League One manager, I guess the only positive is that we’ll get at least one Sky TV fixture against the Gas.

Every time we have a poor run of form someone says "I can't see us winning another match for *insert big number here* gameweeks", and every time we do.

[bexhill reds]

16 minutes ago, lenred said:

8 points for me.  7 at a push.  

How do you break down the 7 / 8 points?

We’ve rarely done well at Watford or Brum, Hull is a potential arguably but much depends on our form up to then, Blackburn away on Tues could be a long away day too far, Sunderland are not going to be push overs. We’re not scoring enough goals and we are more than capable of giving at least one away per game.

Transition perhaps but I’m not massively impressed by the fare on offer, I’m bored of the coach lingo, I’d rather see a bit of substance and not processes and behaviours, nor putting players hopelessly out of position because you’re trying to be a tactical genius.

[Leabrook]

50 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

Personally I can’t see us winning another  game until the New Year, the next 6 matches including Millwall on New Years Day are not going to be easy. Still we’ll be all set for League One, with League One budget and League One manager, I guess the only positive is that we’ll get at least one Sky TV fixture against the Gas.

Bless 

[Silvio Dante]

10 minutes ago, The Coach said:

Works out 8 points for me in the next 5 games

Have a feeling Birmingham may actually result in 0 points as they appear one of our bogey teams in recent seasons 

What I’d say, in a run like you predict after the Hull game we’d be LLDDLD (starting from Saints).

That kind of a run would require exceptional mental toughness from the players at the start of a new way of playing to have the belief they were on the right lines - because the new way of playing had yielded 3 points in 6 games. That in itself would make the Watford game hugely difficult as it becomes must win, and if the players begin to doubt, that becomes less likely.

For my money mentally the players need a win (and of equal importance a 90 minute performance) before then. 

[bexhill reds]

1 minute ago, Leabrook said:

Bless 

Good constructive comment. Well done

[tin]

54 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Next 5 games.

Blackburn (A)

Sunderland (H)

Hull (H)

Watford (A)

Birmingham (A)

The 5 before the January window. How many might we be looking at, how many should we be looking at?

I won't make another poll but if anyone else wants to.

We rarely get anything at Watford or Birmingham, and I can’t recall us beating Sunderland at home in my 32 years. We’ve fared better v Hull and at Blackburn in recent times, but both of them are in decent form. I think we’d do well to get 5 points, in which case we will be looking over our shoulders. 

Edited December 10, 2023 by tin

[Major Isewater]

48 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's not relegation form though.

Over an entire season 1 point per game is normally "Just about staying up" form.

I thought 50 points was the magical number for staying up . 

[Leabrook]

1 minute ago, bexhill reds said:

Good constructive comment. Well done

As useful as your hyperbolic nonsense 

[lenred]

3 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

How do you break down the 7 / 8 points?

We’ve rarely done well at Watford or Brum, Hull is a potential arguably but much depends on our form up to then, Blackburn away on Tues could be a long away day too far, Sunderland are not going to be push overs. We’re not scoring enough goals and we are more than capable of giving at least one away per game.

Transition perhaps but I’m not massively impressed by the fare on offer, I’m bored of the coach lingo, I’d rather see a bit of substance and not processes and behaviours, nor putting players hopelessly out of position because you’re trying to be a tactical genius.

This is what I’d expect regardless of who was manager and that’s how I’m looking at it now:

Blackburn (A) - Draw

Sunderland (H) - Win

Hull (H) - Win  

Watford (A) - Loss

Birmingham (A) - Draw 

= 8 points.  
 

Change one of the draws to a loss and that’s the 7. 

[bexhill reds]

13 minutes ago, Supersonic Robin said:

Every time we have a poor run of form someone says "I can't see us winning another match for *insert big number here* gameweeks", and every time we do.

I’d genuinely love to be wrong, my optimism over our chances at the start of the season is going to cost me a £300+ meal with a couple of city supporting mates.

Maybe I’m on a downer but these are difficult games coming up and unless things miraculously change, the pressure on the team and the coaching staff will build.

[ExiledAjax]

16 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

I thought 50 points was the magical number for staying up . 

Rarely. 

Likewise 40 is rarely what is actually needed in the premier league.

50 or 40 respectively all but guarantee safety in most seasons, but actually if you look at all divisions across football then you see that normally fewer points are actually needed to stay up. Generally (my estimate without looking at detailed numbers would be in roughly 4 in 5) 1 point per game just about keeps you up.

It's not true every season, there are anomalies.

But so far this season in our division - it's true.

1 ppg would be 20, which would have you one place above QPR in 21st. Not fun, not "top 6", but safe.

Edited December 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[bexhill reds]

4 minutes ago, Leabrook said:

As useful as your hyperbolic nonsense 

Is it? none of those games are a walk in the park at the best of times and we’ve got a new management team with no championship experience trying to rebuild from within. That’s not hyperbolic, arguably pessimistic, but a run of 2 or 3 negative results will only build the pressure.

[Leabrook]

4 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

Is it? none of those games are a walk in the park at the best of times and we’ve got a new management team with no championship experience trying to rebuild from within. That’s not hyperbolic, arguably pessimistic, but a run of 2 or 3 negative results will only build the pressure.

If you had said we wouldn’t win until whenever you said then fine but the extra league one stuff was massive exaggeration.  We have beaten an in form Middlesbrough and outplayed a very good Southampton side for 45 minutes. And been picking up points.  We are not going down!  

[PFree]

Sincerely hope I am wrong but this feels like a Dean Holden experience all over again..

[Leabrook]

1 minute ago, PFree said:

Sincerely hope I am wrong but this feels like a Dean Holden experience all over again..

In what way? What are the similarities to you between Manning and Holden?

[bexhill reds]

Just now, Leabrook said:

If you had said we wouldn’t win until whenever you said then fine but the extra league one stuff was massive exaggeration.  We have beaten an in form Middlesbrough and outplayed a very good Southampton side for 45 minutes. And been picking up points.  We are not going down!  

None of the league one stuff is untrue though in terms of available transfer budget and the experience of the management team.
 

We are only 5 points ahead of Huddersfield and 7 ahead of QPR. The 2 bottom teams I’d argue will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season, leaving one other relegation place, it only takes a run of dodgy form to pull us into that mix. We should be better than Plymouth by the end of the season but everyone else around us is all much of a muchness.

For balance I accept we are only 5 points of 6th and if we can get something out the next 6 given that 4 of those teams are above us, then that changes the perspective but that’s a tough ask for a team that is only playing well in fits and starts and is lacklustre up front.

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, Leabrook said:

We are now at the stage where, say, 6 points from the next 4 games would get different reactions from certain posters  if Manning achieved it or Pearson achieved it.  There is the Pearson Tribe and the Manning Gang.  All a bit weird if you ask me

I think we are at the stage where if he gets 6 points from the next 4 most people will see that as progress, because we only got 5 from his first 5.

I actually think the fixtures to come are harder than those he’s already had & won’t be at all shocked by another mediocre point per game return.

[Garland-sweden]

The next coming games, 3. Think we will take four points.

[Mr Popodopolous]

If anyone wants context.

We got 2-2-1, GD +2 from the first 5 last season.

1-2-2, GD -1 this.

2-0-3, GD -4 from the next 5.

Ironically kicking at a 40% Win Ratio and 1.4 PPG.

Going into it we were from the equivalent fixtures +5 in Pts up to and including Sheffield Wednesday at home, GD, not xhexked so much.

[DaveInSA]

Given we are a postive front foot attacking high pressing side who creates loads of chances and is tight as a nuns chuff at the back with no individual or collective stupid defensive errors which cost us a goal a game...

I'm going for a conservative 15 points

[bcfc01]

Taking the games one at a time;

Blackburn - 18th in the home table, 6 x home defeats, no draws, 18 conceded, 13 scored.

Good chance of an away win imo and I fancy Conway to start to convert the chances he's been getting in each match.

3 points.

(stop sniggering at the back)

[PFree]

55 minutes ago, Leabrook said:

In what way? What are the similarities to you between Manning and Holden?

Felt like an unpopular appointment and his results never really took off.

[johnbytheriver]

When was he last time we won 2 games in a row??