Separating the truth from fiction (I’m encouraged)

[TheSpaniard]

12 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

Quite, but for every success story of the bright new thing there is the equivalent failure. There is another thread on here about Holden, a bright new thing with ideas that ultimately did not work out.

Let’s just see what the collective view is when we kick off against Millwall.

Holden’s coaching credentials are grossly inferior to both Manning and McKenna. A strange comparison. 

[transfer reader]

1 minute ago, bexhill reds said:

Not upset, just bored. There are polarised views about Manning on the various match day and off match day posts. I’ve generalised these and you’ve taken offence to that. You’ve suggested I’ve dabbled with hyperbole, fair enough,  you are entitled to your view, and if you don’t like what I post or the manner in which I post it then ignore it.
 

I’m more than happy to engage with anyone this is why I go on the forum to chat about the club and matches with fellow supporters, but on this topic we clearly are not going to agree at this stage so why continue further? 
 

 

You're happy to engage with anyone but told me to block you or to ignore you

 

On this topic we are clearly not going to agree? All I asked for was you to cite the people who think Manning is a coaching Messiah or whatever your claim was.

You haven't engaged with any view I have on the topic, so how would you know whether there's anything we'd agree on or not?

[bexhill reds]

4 minutes ago, TheSpaniard said:

Holden’s coaching credentials are grossly inferior to both Manning and McKenna. A strange comparison. 

Making a point about the appointment of a bright young thing, not a like for like equivalence.

Like I said let’s see where we are when we kick off against Millwall on New Year’s Day, that’s the only litmus test from my perspective.

[red panda]

12 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

You're literally attempting to rewrite history. I know exactly the role Pearson played in that win against Boro. 

But even if we don't include the Boro game which would be ridiculous, but lets say we don't, it's then 2 wins and a draw from his first 5 games. Better than Manning and with a far inferior team. However this isn't about NP Vs LM. I used Pearson as an example that many managers go into clubs and deliver results instantly. 

Isn't an fa cup 5th round against Sheffield Utd a competitive game? 

Often this is simply due to mean reversion (look it up!) rather than anything to do with the new manager.  And when clubs are battling relegation they will often look specifically for a manager who they think can get quick results, even though they might not be the best long term option for the club.

In our case there was no burning platform, so no need for instant results.  What matters is whether LM is a good long term option for us, and it's far far far too early to tell,

[bexhill reds]

5 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

You're happy to engage with anyone but told me to block you or to ignore you

 

On this topic we are clearly not going to agree? All I asked for was you to cite the people who think Manning is a coaching Messiah or whatever your claim was.

You haven't engaged with any view I have on the topic, so how would you know whether there's anything we'd agree on or not?

I’ve already said that I was generalising polarised views on the forum, if you think that’s BS then fine, great, no problem. If you think I’m dealing with hyperbole, then fine, great, no problem. But let’s not go round in circles, as that’s just boring.

Like I’ve said on a previous post, let’s see where we are come kick off at Millwall. 

 

[Sheltons Army]

2 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

Making a point about the appointment of a bright young thing, not a like for like equivalence.

Like I said let’s see where we are when we kick off against Millwall on New Year’s Day, that’s the only litmus test from my perspective.

I’m completely open minded about Liam Manning and what will happen

Lets be honest as such he’s an unknown quantity , spent a lot of time coaching and studying , with a limited time as Head Coach / manager with no strong indication of what he can do at this level 

The new young head coach , Very much in vogue 

 

But the scramble from some to try and repeatedly highlight , anything they see as a positive change,  is bizarre
 

Well , it’s not..........not  from some , some are those vociferous in their criticism of NP ,

Some aren’t tbf 

And there’s the group who (Having slated Pearson continually) have created new identities (I presume to distance their posting history)  and returned , ‘proclaiming’ LM 

[transfer reader]

2 minutes ago, red panda said:

Often this is simply due to mean reversion (look it up!) rather than anything to do with the new manager.  And when clubs are battling relegation they will often look specifically for a manager who they think can get quick results, even though they might not be the best long term option for the club.

In our case there was no burning platform, so no need for instant results.  What matters is whether LM is a good long term option for us, and it's far far far too early to tell,

Unfortunately, no matter how many times it gets debunked, the new manager bounce myth persists.

Studies have even shown that clubs who stick with a manager through a bad spell often get a better 'bounce' than those who change manager.

However, the modern way is to sack rather than give time so there's less data on that

[transfer reader]

2 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

I’ve already said that I was generalising polarised views on the forum, if you think that’s BS then fine, great, no problem. If you think I’m dealing with hyperbole, then fine, great, no problem. But let’s not go round in circles, as that’s just boring.

Like I’ve said on a previous post, let’s see where we are come kick off at Millwall. 

 

So we don't disagree on that front then.

I wouldn't specify a particular time frame, but I'm looking for progress (and that can be in either results or performances), but by Millwall we'll be around 10 games into his tenure so better and more informed views can be made.

Perhaps you shouldn't assume other people's positions

[bexhill reds]

8 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

So we don't disagree on that front then.

I wouldn't specify a particular time frame, but I'm looking for progress (and that can be in either results or performances), but by Millwall we'll be around 10 games into his tenure so better and more informed views can be made.

Perhaps you shouldn't assume other people's positions

Not sure I’ve ever done that but there you are. 
 

I will be absolutely delighted to come on here 18 points to the better after having spanked Millwall 5-0 with scintillating football on New Years Day and say my original view was wrong. Let’s both hope I can do that, because I want to.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, italian dave said:

How many of those (some of which seem quite counter-intuitive) are down to excluding pens and ogs? Both of which have been fairly significant features of LMs start. 

1 goal for / 2 goals against.

Thats the reason for not “jumping on” the data at this point…too many individual things have potential to skew it in the attack v defence parts of it.

Hence why I’m more on firm ground on the early view of passing and pressing stuff, because they are based on high volumes of actions / less open to skew.

[2015]

Encouraged? Encouraged by what? 5 points from 5 games. The previous manager would have been criticised heavily for that run by many on OTIB and on various different City podcasts.

I feel bad for Liam as it isn't his fault, but the bad blood won't go for quite a while with what happened in October and he's taking on a job that imo is too big for him right now I fear. Any runs of losses and there will be scrutiny on him intensely because of how the owners have acted/behaved, couple that with the club purposefully being antagonistic on Social Media doesn't help matters.

In terms of the Football I've seen i'm not encouraged. It doesn't seem like we are creating any more chances than we had prior to him taking over and to me we don't have a good enough team at the moment to play a possession game. We were set up perfectly for counter attacking Football at a pace. Our best performance of this was at Swansea. 

I actually feel sorry for Knight in Midfield. He's a good player but the players around him don't have the guile in forward areas to create the movement for him to play to his strengths. One thing I will say is some of LM's team selections have been very disappointing for me. Starting Weimann, dropping TGH, not giving Naismith much of a chance when he was fit. Continuously playing Bell.

Our owners have overestimated how good this team actually is and Nige had us punching above our weight. Liam has a big job on his hands unfortunately and to me it hasn't been the most inspiring, even when he took the job. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by 2015

[brad blit]

**** off

 

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, brad blit said:

**** off

 

Sykes is 5 letters

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

You're literally attempting to rewrite history.

I'm literally not.

[brad blit]

44 minutes ago, brad blit said:

**** off

 

This is what happens when you leave a work computer on unattended and leave the office.......... 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, transfer reader said:

Unfortunately, no matter how many times it gets debunked, the new manager bounce myth persists.

Studies have even shown that clubs who stick with a manager through a bad spell often get a better 'bounce' than those who change manager.

However, the modern way is to sack rather than give time so there's less data on that

Cifuentes at QPR.

Rohl at Sheffield Wednesday.

Different types but clear improvement, the latter now getting some results.

Albeit from a really low base that can help with a improvement. From a solid base, well you're not firefighting but at the same time the squad we have wirh 6 or 7 out injured, is there that much room for growth.

Didn't Carrick take Middlesbrough on a bit of a charge last year. Again though grossly underperforming when he arrived which helps.

Wilder is objectively superior and more experienced than Heckingbottom so I'd expect Sheffield United to do better than they have to date, but again quite a low base and they may still drop- he knows the club too which helps.

Lopetegui at Wolves likewise last year. Albeit they did spend in January too.

Otoh Southampton sacking Hassenhuttl for Jones was a major downgrade.

Doesn't always work of course.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[transfer reader]

14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Cifuentes at QPR.

Rohl at Sheffield Wednesday.

Different types but clear improvement, the latter now getting some results.

Albeit from a really low base that can help with a improvement. From a solid base, well you're not firefighting but at the same time the squad we have wirh 6 or 7 out injured, is there that much room for growth.

Didn't Carrick take Middlesbrough on a bit of a charge last year. Again though grossly underperforming when he arrived which helps.

Wilder is objectively superior and more experienced than Heckingbottom so I'd expect Sheffield United to do better than they have to date, but again quite a low base and they may still drop- he knows the club too which helps.

Lopetegui at Wolves likewise last year. Albeit they did spend in January too.

Otoh Southampton sacking Hassenhuttl for Jones was a major downgrade.

Doesn't always work of course.

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[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

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We'll see. Fully aware of the concept thanks.

Carrick wasn't albeit a grossly underperforming side when he came in and adding Barlaser, Ramsey and Archer in January vs a departure of Watmore and Hoppe.

Sometimes a side can ride the wave all the way to the playoffs, see Nottingham Forest under Cooper

No Brennan Johnson no chance though IMO. They weirdly turned down a bid in January 2022, when likely to fail FFP but weird Covid transfer add-backs assisted majorly.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[George Rs]

Very difficult to judge how Mannings doing at the moment for me. Over I like the football he’s trying to play, seems more controlled and thoughtful. 

I don’t see what there is to gain from comparing him to Pearson, not only are they two completely different style managers but at the end of the day what’s done is done. Whether there was more to the nige sacking then we know, he’s gone and he won’t come back. To say I loved the nige era would be an exaggeration as it wasn’t all sunshine’s and rainbows. But I fully appreciate the tremendous job he has done for our club. 
 

The question I think that is most prevalent now is how much more does manning need? For the first time in a long time, the way we try to play is a system I can see winning a team a lot of points and hopefully promotion. But with the ability of players currently it hinders the efficiency of the play style significantly. Can Manning coach the players to a level that the can carry out this style to a high enough degree? How many of them can he coach to that level? And if we need reinforcements how many? How many windows will it take?
 

All questions that currently can’t be answered, but those are the ones that are most important for me. Today will be an extremely interesting test of what “manning ball” is capable of. COYR

[transfer reader]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

We'll see. Fully aware of the concept thanks.

Carrick wasn't albeit a grossly underperforming side when he came in and adding Barlaser, Ramsey and Archer in January vs a departure of Watmore and Hoppe.

Sometimes a side can ride the wave all the way to the playoffs, see Nottingham Forest under Cooper. No Brennan Johnson no chance though IMO.

You're fully aware of the concept, but ignored it being given as the reason why the nonsense bounce happens, and even pointed out that certain clubs in your own list had a "lower base" to start from, and then discounted it anyway because you were listing those as an example of the mythical new manager bounce.

 

Study after study has shown the "bounce" to be no more than regression, and there isn't even a consistent improvement immediately after changing a manager, which is what you'd expect if the thing was real.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

You're fully aware of the concept, but ignored it being given as the reason why the nonsense bounce happens, and even pointed out that certain clubs in your own list had a "lower base" to start from, and then discounted it anyway because you were listing those as an example of the mythical new manager bounce.

 

Study after study has shown the "bounce" to be no more than regression, and there isn't even a consistent improvement immediately after changing a manager, which is what you'd expect if the thing was real.

 

I just think case by case basis is often the way to look at it.

More run of the mill examples, Wigan were ultimately no better off when sacking Richardson last year, Blackpool with Apppleton likewise. Millwall post Rowett? Not a lot so far.

I agree on your 10 game point though, let's see how it looks post Millwall.

A new manager bounce from the base inherited should be pushing us towards top 10, at least in the short term.

[transfer reader]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I just think case by case basis is often the way to look at it.

More run of the mill examples, Wigan were ultimately no better off when sacking Richardson last year, Blackpool with Apppleton likewise. Millwall post Rowett? Not a lot so far.

 

That's because there's no such thing as a new manager bounce.

If I flip a coin and I flip it tails 6 times in a row, you then flip it and it lands heads 3 in a row is that "new flipper bounce" or just the numbers heading back towards their expected outcomes?

 

Regression can kick in at any time.

It could be the first game after a manager is sacked under an interim, it could be a dozen games later or anywhere in between.

 

How long was it before GJ got his "bounce" (and I don't mean the one in the stands)

Edited December 12, 2023 by transfer reader

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, transfer reader said:

That's because there's no such thing as a new manager bounce.

If I flip a coin and I flip it tails 6 times in a row, you then flip it and it lands heads 3 in a row is that "new flipper bounce" or just the numbers heading back towards their expected outcomes?

I agree it can be a bit of a myth.

[transfer reader]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

I agree it can be a bit of a myth.

It's not can be.

It is.

Edited my above comment as you were responding, so here's the salient point of it again.

Regression can kick in at any time.

It could be the first game after a manager is sacked under an interim, it could be a dozen games later or anywhere in between.

[Kid in the Riot]

"Regression to the mean" sounds like a new song by Radiohead. 

[Sir Geoff]

56 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I just think case by case basis is often the way to look at it.

More run of the mill examples, Wigan were ultimately no better off when sacking Richardson last year, Blackpool with Apppleton likewise. Millwall post Rowett? Not a lot so far.

I agree on your 10 game point though, let's see how it looks post Millwall.

A new manager bounce from the base inherited should be pushing us towards top 10, at least in the short term.

So back to where we were when the change was made.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

So back to where we were when the change was made.

Yeah it should have been maintained, was my main short term view. Perhaps a bounce would have had us in the Sunderland, Hull, Blackburn bracket.

Generally a change is made to improve. Time will tell.

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 hours ago, red panda said:

Often this is simply due to mean reversion (look it up!) rather than anything to do with the new manager.  And when clubs are battling relegation they will often look specifically for a manager who they think can get quick results, even though they might not be the best long term option for the club.

In our case there was no burning platform, so no need for instant results.  What matters is whether LM is a good long term option for us, and it's far far far too early to tell,

What matters is how LM does this season. Promotion is the aim.

If he doesn't deliver in the short term, there won't be no long term. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Generally a change is made to improve. Time will tell.

I'm still waiting for someone (who's not known for being anti Pearson) to tell me what has improved. I don't class our CBs passing the ball between them as an improvement either. 

After 5 games there must be some improvements? 

[Mr Popodopolous]

3.5 year deal ie until summer 2027 means he probably won't be off anywhere soon unless a) It's disastrous or b) He gets headhunted.

I know contracts aren't always worth much in football but it strikes me that least medium term barring disaster or headhunted he'll be here.