Take a bow Liam Manning

[transfer reader]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

That run is pretty unlikely to push us into the top 6.

15 gives us 59 points. You're therefore relying on each of the teams above us picking up no more than 11 (1.57 ppg) in the case of Norwich and Hull, or 12 (1.71 ppg) in the case of Coventry and Sunderland. If any one of them managed to achieve that then they'd inevitably have a better GD than us and we'd stay 7th or maybe even 8th.

Coventry and Norwich are both currently on 13 points from their last 6 (2.16 ppg). Sunderland are on 10 from 6 (1.66 ppg) and Hull on 9 from 6 (1.5 ppg).

So even if we do what you say and go at 2.14 ppg over the next few games, you need all 4 of those teams in that play off chasing pack to drop form if we were to move into the top 6.

That's why it's so unlikely to happen even if we go on an incredible unbeaten run.

Here's the current table.

It's one of those situations though where because there's so many teams fighting for the spot, there's rarely going to be a weekend where none play another one.

It has split a bit now because it was even more open a few weeks ago.

But because of that, going on a good run like that will more often than not catch up on 2-3 of those sides and pass 1-2 more

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, transfer reader said:

there's rarely going to be a weekend where none play another one.

Which also means there's rarely a week where they might all drop points. 

I know people want to get excited, but honestly what I'm doing is getting excited for next season whilst enjoying the end of this one in a stress-free situation.

I will say. It's crazy fine margins. We've won and lost a lot of games by a single goal this season, if just a couple of those had gone in our favour then we'd be right in that pack.

Again, for me a reason to look forward to 2024/25 when I think we have a great chance of being consistently in that pack that floats between 5th and 8th. 

[bpexile]

22 hours ago, maxjak said:

I note the "Cult of Nige" are quiet tonight?  Ha!     PS.Not that i have anything against Uncle Nigel.

, W

[transfer reader]

13 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Which also means there's rarely a week where they might all drop points. 

I know people want to get excited, but honestly what I'm doing is getting excited for next season whilst enjoying the end of this one in a stress-free situation.

I will say. It's crazy fine margins. We've won and lost a lot of games by a single goal this season, if just a couple of those had gone in our favour then we'd be right in that pack.

Again, for me a reason to look forward to 2024/25 when I think we have a great chance of being consistently in that pack that floats between 5th and 8th. 

Agreed, but also a number of teams in those places above that we still need to play.

 

It's entirely in our own hands still.

[mozo]

Sunderland and Boro currently losing 

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, mozo said:

Sunderland and Boro currently losing 

But Preston winning.

[Ian M]

I hate to piss on the 15 points from 7 dream but two of the games are Ipswich (away) and Leicester(h). If those are draws we will have done very well.

That said, we have it within us to win a game against QPR, Sheff W, Cardiff, Swansea and West Brom.

So 17 points it is.

[Robinsfan]

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Which also means there's rarely a week where they might all drop points. 

I know people want to get excited, but honestly what I'm doing is getting excited for next season whilst enjoying the end of this one in a stress-free situation.

I will say. It's crazy fine margins. We've won and lost a lot of games by a single goal this season, if just a couple of those had gone in our favour then we'd be right in that pack.

Again, for me a reason to look forward to 2024/25 when I think we have a great chance of being consistently in that pack that floats between 5th and 8th. 

The Stoke, Coventry, Southampton (A) and Millwall (H) games come to mind for me. But obviously, games like that aren't unique to us.

[W-S-M Seagull]

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's the grim side of mathematics and football. It looks like "only" 4 points. But the damned thing is that these other teams keep playing games and keep getting points as well.

How's this though. If we go at 3 points per game and get 21 from 7. Then it's on.

I'm taking hope from the fact that after 32 games last season. Coventry were 5 points off the play offs so it can be done. 

Worth noting too that after 32 games last season we were on 41 points so we're plus 3 from last season. 

Edited February 15 by W-S-M Seagull

[ExiledAjax]

5 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I'm taking hope from the fact that after 32 games last season. Coventry were 5 points off the play offs so it can be done. 

Worth noting too that after 32 games last season we were on 41 points so we're plus 3 from last season. 

And WBA, Norwich, and Blackburn were closer to the playoffs than Coventry, and Watford were actually in them...and all failed to finish in the top 6.

So yes it's possible (and I've never said it's not), but it's very unlikely and for every team that makes it there are many more that do not. 

And my original point - that 2.14 ppg over the run that @cidered abroad described is unlikely to get us into 6th - that still stands. 

Look I've made my point, and really the numbers and history make it for me. If we manage it then great, well done to all and I hope we have a wonderful day at Wembley in May.

[TV Tom]

10 hours ago, maxjak said:

Some people just don't get it?     As I couldn't be MORE behind the new Manager    .....and my comment was far from snidey IMO.      You must surely be aware of the constant criticism   LM has received by a number of posters since he was appointed, forever stating that we are no better off than before NP was dismissed?   I have always taken the stance that comparing his achievements over a period since November   (21 games yesterday)    with NP's two and a half years was misleading and unfair, and that patience and tolerance were needed to allow LM to introduce and adopt a new playing style.  I stated on numerous occasions, that given time, I  felt that LM  would be prove to be a success  and in the long term would prove to be a  major step forward.  But NO, I was told by other posters that we are NO better off, and why was NP dismissed, as we should have stuck with him, and are in the same place as we were under NP anyway?   My remark was aimed at those posters who constantly referred to the "Nothing has Changed"       syndrome, and was meant as a humourous reference to their lack of patience with the new manager.....who has, as i have predicted  on numerous instances started to turn things around.         I  note that i have received around 20 replies to my innocuous aside, I cannot be bothered to read any , other than yours, as i imagine they are of the same kneejerk quality, and completely miss my point?    To finish, if you can be bothered to read......I was a big fan of NP, and felt he was poorly treated by management, but just like you,  I more than adequately have got behind the new manager, and have defended his approach and tactics on this forum many times to his detractor's             I despair sometimes at the over reactions on this site by certain posters, some people need to get a sense of humour, and get off their high horse?   In My Considered Opinion, of course?  

I agree with practically everything you say and was clear in my point of view that i felt NP had taken us as far as he could, i wanted a younger and up-coming manager which is why i  advocated Cooper and Martin when they were available causing much angst to many on here but my point was that we need to move on without NP's name constantly popping up in practically every other topic from the pro and anti NP camps, just for the record i was delighted when Manning was appointed, time will tell if my enthusiasm for him is justified but the early signs are promising

[Tinmans Love Child]

11 hours ago, transfer reader said:

It's one of those situations though where because there's so many teams fighting for the spot, there's rarely going to be a weekend where none play another one.

It has split a bit now because it was even more open a few weeks ago.

But because of that, going on a good run like that will more often than not catch up on 2-3 of those sides and pass 1-2 more

So are you saying it could happen?

[transfer reader]

31 minutes ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

So are you saying it could happen?

It absolutely could.

It doesn't mean I think it will happen. But unless we lose out next 3 there's no reason not to keep looking up.

 

Of our final 14 games we have 5 that are against sides above us in the table, we also play 4 of the bottom 5 sides.

In fact of the 11 teams that are Cardiff down to bottom, we still have to play 9 of them again.

 

Coventry still play PNE, WBA, Hull, Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich.

Norwich still play Sunderland, Leicester, Ipswich, PNE and us.

Hull still play Southampton, WBA, PNE, Leicester, Coventry, Leeds and Ipswich.

PNE still play Coventry, Hull, Southampton, Norwich and Leicester.

Sunderland still play Norwich, Leicester, Southampton, us, Leeds and WBA.

 

We probably have on paper an easier final 14 than most of those teams.

 

Not by a huge amount in some cases.

Edited February 15 by transfer reader

[TV Tom]

Totally un-related to Manning but thought i'd share this about Russell Martin, seems like he's had an eventful life quite different to his persona !!

Martin was born in Brighton, East Sussex, to parents Dean and Kerry.^[2] He has two older brothers, Jamie and David, and a younger brother, Pepe, while his parents also fostered. His father was a taxi driver who subjected Martin's mother to domestic abuse and had spent periods of time in prison. His father's gambling addiction saw the family lose their house in Hollingbury, moving to Hollingdean.  Prior to signing with Wycombe he was cleaning pub toilets in the mornings prior to school, then working in Spar in the evenings.^[4]

Martin established a charitable foundation in his hometown of Brighton, initially set up as a football academy, named the Russell Martin Foundation.^[5] The charity aims to use "the power of football to help change people's lives" by providing access to football, education, and health courses in the local community.^[5]

Martin has been a vegan since 2014, initially for health reasons as he sought to manage issues with ulcerative colitis.^[6] He is also a part-owner of Erpingham House, the largest vegan restaurant in the UK.^[7] In a 2018 interview, he stated that he had joined the Green Party of England and Wales.^[7] He is also a proponent of Buddhism.^[8]

[bcfctim]

I'm predicting 63 pts is what we end up with. We got 59 last season, 55 the year before and 51 the year before that. 

That'd be 19 from our last 14. W6 D1 L7 or W5 D4 L5. Seems about right

Steady. Progress.

[downendcity]

Probably 6 weeks too late to make a run that would get us into the play offs.

Not impossible - you only have to look back to the 11 (?) game winning run under DW - but we'd need to discover firepower up front that has sadly been missing for too much of the season. Would be good to make a go of it, even if we fall short, so the season doesn't fizzle out and gives us momentum and optimism to take into next season.

Of course, that is before that optimism is dashed in the summer when we sell Conway, Pring and Vyner to Bournemouth! 

[TheJudge07]

LM needed those 2 wins to relieve the pressure on him and to be fair those were tough games where I thought we would do well to get a couple of points. His record prior to that was not looking good. Credit though, he changed it.  We really need to keep the momentum going by beating QPR.  I think supporters should go easy on calls for a play off charge. To do that we need to win a string of games and go on a long unbeaten run. We have not consistently done that for a long time. If it happens, great but I wouldn't expect it. We are now virtually safe which is important.  What I hope though is that LM has now found the formation from which to build from and which to work on in training. This seems to be a 4231 and at times 442. Personally, I feel we have played well with 4 at the back and we should cease any attempts to go back to a back 5. It just doesn't work for us. I think LM should now focus on the players he wants to keep and really begin the process for next season. If he wants to keep any of the OOC players, then now should really be the time to look at them. Opportunities should also be given to blood the youngsters we want to keep.   It takes time to embed a new style but the green shoots are certainly there and I feel the benefits will really come when LM has had a full pre-season. 

[mozo]

59 minutes ago, TheJudge07 said:

LM needed those 2 wins to relieve the pressure on him and to be fair those were tough games where I thought we would do well to get a couple of points. His record prior to that was not looking good. Credit though, he changed it.  We really need to keep the momentum going by beating QPR.  I think supporters should go easy on calls for a play off charge. To do that we need to win a string of games and go on a long unbeaten run. We have not consistently done that for a long time. If it happens, great but I wouldn't expect it. We are now virtually safe which is important.  What I hope though is that LM has now found the formation from which to build from and which to work on in training. This seems to be a 4231 and at times 442. Personally, I feel we have played well with 4 at the back and we should cease any attempts to go back to a back 5. It just doesn't work for us. I think LM should now focus on the players he wants to keep and really begin the process for next season. If he wants to keep any of the OOC players, then now should really be the time to look at them. Opportunities should also be given to blood the youngsters we want to keep.   It takes time to embed a new style but the green shoots are certainly there and I feel the benefits will really come when LM has had a full pre-season. 

If you listen to the various interviews in the past week, the players all say that aside from Leeds, the performances have been good, but the results not there. That's how I see it too. So, performance levels shouldn't generally be a problem, and hopefully we'll see more Ws than we had done. Enough Ws to get 6th is a bit much though. 

Edited February 15 by mozo

[2015]

21 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Absolutely. I think when he arrived here he was quite unfit or not up to our fitness standards? 

So a good solid pre season has done him well. 

Also I think not all January signings make an impact. Take a while to settle etc. 

But I really like Cornick. He's selfless and will work incredibly hard. Yes he may lack a bit of quality but he makes up for that with his work rate. He will run through brick walls for us. 

I pointed out to my mate yesterday he sprinted all the way back from the opposition box to near our box and then when we regained the ball about the time he arrived he then turned around and sprinted back to the opposition box. I love that sort of thing. 

I've been saying for ages that some of the stick Cornick has got from a portion of our fanbase has been very unfair. Sometimes we really don't give our players a fair chance to prove themselves, but will give other players lots of credit in the bank (Wont name names)

[Davefevs]

Good post @TheJudge07 

I didn’t expect Nige to get top 6…I didn’t expect LM to either.  Had either done it (ok, only one can now!) that would be a big over-achievement imho.

5 minutes ago, mozo said:

If you listen to the various interviews in the past week, the players all say that aside from Leeds, the performances have been good, but the results not there. That's how I see it too. So, performance levels shouldn't generally be a problem, and hopefully we'll see more Ws than we had done. Enough Ws to get 6th is a bit much though. 

Without being over-critical of LM, I don’t think he’s gonna come out and say much different.  There has been no lack of effort, no lack of guts, the culture remains in-tact, etc, etc.  But I would say that he’s being a tad generous when he says we’ve been at the “levels”for 60-70 minutes in most games, but he hasn’t really qualified what he means by “the levels”, so I’m in pedantic mood.

But it’s probably just him describing the ebb and flow of a match, and mixing effort “levels” (and guts and culture) together with quality “levels”.  I have no issue with that, so I’m switching off my pedant mood.

I think results overall have more or less matched performances.  I’d say we’ve left one or two points out there.  I felt the same prior to his appointment too.  I suspect other teams will claim similar.

The main thing is he has set a position to go into the last 14 games with something to aim for.

I for one won’t be judging him on top 6, but he has a real opportunity to finish the season strongly.  And my strongly, I mean finishing the season in credit, ie more wins than losses, positive GD (hopefully), a clear position of the summer requirements.

The fear for me was two defeats against Boro and Saints and the season would’ve been over, and it would’ve probably been a crawl to game 46.

Reckon the atmosphere will be belting tomorrow. COYR!