havanatopia

1 hour ago, where's the joy said:

Prefer a Leoville-Barton myself, no relation to Joey

Wow that's a new name... I shall need to look that up.

Arhhh yess... St Julien.... And good ratings on Vivino but a little pricey. Get what you pay for of course. I shall look out for it next next time I venture to a big supermarche. Appreciate the tip.

On 05/06/2021 at 04:08, Norn Iron said:

I am. A Cabernet Sauvignon would have been a far better choice of wine with a steak. 

Far too broad a generalisation. The country that gives us some of the best beef cattle in the world also happens to grow some of the best Malbec. Both are like hand and glove and you will find few restaurants of Argentine origin suggesting a somewhat light weight cab sauv over a far more full bodied Malbec. 

Of course it's all about personal preference as well.

Where is Bairstow?

When do the silly play offs start?

And when was the last time Bristol won the title?

Parry sitting down with Morris in some Steak House in the West End this evening with a nice bottle of Malbec.

Are we at all surprised? 

On 28/05/2021 at 10:55, marmite said:

When is a decision due on this matter, or are the EFL dragging their heels to avoid confrontation?  Absolute disgrace. Teams have to prepare and budget for next season. This should be announced as soon as the play off places are confirmed, i.e, by next week. But my guess is they will bottle it.

The anger amongst us fans and other owners and players is very real and palpable and will not go away.

On 28/05/2021 at 11:05, havanatopia said:

I hope we are all in for a very pleasant surprise. I believe around play off full time and they simply have to make a decision one way or other.

Well I lost hope now.

On 30/05/2021 at 19:02, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yeah agreed with this Hav. Bust the rules, you're not going to be popular and get caught the appropriate punishments must be handed down.

A small conspiracy theory of mine might be that the EFL, could they be looking to drag it out to await a suitable takeover in order to hand down a reduced punishment? Shouldn't be a factor and clear how long the legal process can take with this but Nixon did suggest a couple of weeks back that if Derby get a suitable new owner by August that a points penalty could be reduced.

By which time the season will have started. Derby are going to get royally booed at every fixture. And rightly so. State of governance everywhere now is so infested with corruption and small brain syndrome... Seems more and more that this is by design not error because they simply cannot all be dim wits. But a dim wit is easier to corrupt with a lower moral compass. That's my opinion. I think a lot of us understand education has been on a dumming down crusade for decades and all over the world. 

52 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Under the old rules Hav, it's hard to explain how it all fits together under the 3 year rolling, amended for Covid with the complex calculations involved.

£43m is right,, but because of this new formula it's halved and that plus the 2021 figure are added and halved. Selling and leasing back the Stadium in the Accounts ending 2020/21 would or might bring it into line, but an alternative strategy might be if this Adjustment and lopping down of future Costs puts them in line to 2021, ie 2017/18, 2018/19 then the combined average, you then sell Ground in 2021/22 in order to help to attempt clear that hurdle- rather handily they have loads of players out of contract in Summer 2022 so it could be a case of buying time, albeit Parachute Payments would be long gone by then. I've done some calculations but of course they contain some estimates. A double three-card trick I called it a while back.

I got up to the point where I'd estimated a Loss of £43,232,000 halved which became £21,616,000.

Going into 2020/21, I estimate the following:

£88,455,000.

MINUS.

Reduced Amortisation by dint of the Impairment down by say £15-20m.

The Impairment cost itself I assume was a one off cost that won't be repeated. £42,516,000.

Let's use the £8,092,000 of Savings irrespective of the Impairment, as a basis/starting point for 2020/21. 

Minus the £7m in Allowables of course.

Also suggests that by dint of Accounting timings- Revenue that was due to be accounted for in 2019/20 was in fact in the following season. However I cannot find it in the Accounts, maybe I conflated that with lost Revenues or read a piece that did so I'll discount it for now.

However I'd also suggest that Parachute Payments down by £10-15m in final season. I assume wage bill is still fairly similar along with Profit on Player disposal.

They sacked Nathan Jones last season and hired O'Neill- £2m net cost that won't be repeated maybe? Just a guess...

I'm using the higher savings and lower reductions and I make a possible loss this season as being £20,847,000. That's an FFP loss not an Accounting one so includes FFP and Covid stuff.

One early estimate might be:

£43,232,000 + £18,847,000=£62,097,000/2=£31,093,500.

Add that to the Swiss Ramble estimates of £31m aggregate for the first 2 years ie 2017/18 and 2018/19 and I make it an estimated overspend of £6,593,000. Even with a Stadium sale falling into 2020/21 they might be on a knife edge provided the price and Profit are in line with recent valuations and then there's a whole new problem going into 2021/22- that's where Future Financial Info kicks in. A stadium sold for say a £13m Profit might just have them under £39m to 2021 but as I mentioned going into 2021/22...

Aggregate Upper Loss limit falls to £39m from £55.5m going into that season as the last PL season will have disappeared off the ra

Parachute Payments gone for good- yes cost base down in a sense- Stadium already sold. Average Parachute Payments over those 2 seasons might be £20-25m. That's a £41.5m swing basically, in the wrong direction.

Also bear in mind that the players they have taken a hit on but claimed as Covid costs, they cannot potentially make a Profit on Disposal on...double-edged sword.

I'll certainly periodically revise and rework these figures and estimates.

All that said, even though I'd trust Stoke more than some clubs say to struggle on under that Agreement, if allowed to stand unchallenged I'm unsure I'd trust Mel Morris to! Or possibly Reading though they're quite far gone, or possibly Cardiff now Parachute Payments are up- Derby especially, if that precedent was set I could see them attempting to pull a fast one.

Here's a scenario I think plausible if this Agreement sets a precedent...

1. Derby write down say Waghorn and Wisdom residual value due to Covid. EFL accepted Stoke so they accept Derby. I think Stoke more likely to struggle through it in relative good faith but time wll tell.
2. Their contracts expire in Summer 2021 in any event but their unique model can lead to big charges final year. Due to Covid their Book Value is not so applicable, so they argue hence the Impairment.
3. Leave as free agents in Summer 2021...but rehired on different, ie lower terms.
4. Derby look to sell them at a fairly early opportunity, arguing that new contractual terms and as free agents means a Profit on Disposal should stand without impact to the prior Impairment ie that shouldn't be readded to the FFP exclusions.

Whether they could make it stand up is a different issue but could I see someone like Derby trying it? Yes, I could.

Thanks pops. Btw... When you talk about players out of contract you talk first about 2022 when mostly this will occur, later you change to 2021... Not sure if you have flipped from Stoke to Derby?

23 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

You might well be right, but the EFL regs make me wonder.

For simplicity purposes, I'm assuming that the Coates family have stuck in the sufficient equity/cash- funding basically- to take them to the Upper Limit. Gets even more complex if not!

Seems as per Swiss Ramble to be an aggregated Year 1 and 2 loss after Allowances of £31m. Believe they're on a fairly sticky wicket P&S wise if the Averaging works as the Rules suggest they could.

So allowable loss for season ending 2020 is 13 million. Stoke lost a whopping 88 but are allowed a 38 million covid adjustment to bring it down to 43 million.

They are in a 30 million hole they are trying to get out of by selling the ground to the Coates family.

Is that about right Pops?

Pops, on your earlier post, I would say few of us are anti Derby per se. We are simply anti rule busters. The rules may be stupid, they may be almost, but not quite, impossible to follow and it's up to a club if they balls up their maths to have a go at a fiddle . That's their business. But, upon being caught they must do the time. The FL are fudging the entire thing as of now. We hold out hope for justice.

The Welsh FA have had quite a bit of bad luck with their managers in recent history.

He has been charged, that suggests sufficient evidence, but he has not yet been found guilty. I for one, will therefore reserve any comment on the man until the end of the trial. 

That is what everyone should be doing as a matter of course.

I hope we are all in for a very pleasant surprise. I believe around play off full time and they simply have to make a decision one way or other.

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Mel did it eyes wide open, seems fans buy the bullshit that it was a tinsy-winsy admin error.  Mel gambled on getting away with it.  He got caught.

Morris may still get away with it though.

9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That would be an excellent and richly deserved outcome. They really need to make an example of a club, to get the message home. Preferably a 'bigger' one.

Alternative version of your idea could be two points for small technical breach to 2020/21, then investigate at leisure from June onwards, while in League One.

Quite possible that while there is an ongoing investigation a Soft Embargo is in play as a routine matter which would further hem them in.

As it stands though, the good news is that if the Disciplinary Commission- the one who cleared them last August- handed down a hefty Sanction, then the League Arbitration Panel would hear any Appeal.

This is the Upper Body legally speaking and perhaps more importantly was the one who found them guilty in the first instance. In theory they could even increase a punishment and being the Upper Body, their verdict is the binding one.

Quite possibly equally as effective .

Yes following those play off games GS... Would be good to see Kiel go up.

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I agree, that indeed is what Goodwill on Acquisition of shares is for. In other words, owing to an Impairment of £22m in the Player Registrations, a knock on effect is to add £32m- or another £10m to the decrease in value?

Yeah, but is there not a chance that the system could be being gamed here? EFL seemed to think so if that snippet of the Written Reasons was anything to go by. Sevco 5112 seems to have been the basis for FFP/P&S Assessments.

The last page, Note 26 of the Sevco 5112 Limited Accounts for 2015/16- or which ran from August 2015-August 2016 shows provision for a Fair Value Adjustment and none was made. Plus the section of the Accounts showing the Impairment made in 2015/16.

To add to the slight confusion, Club Accounts were used in 2015/16 but as we can see Impairment of Goodwill on Acquisition...

Seems to offer a bit more detail.

I wonder if they tried to put through some kind of "Fair Value Adjustment" to the Intangible Fixed Assets as bits seem to feed in.

Possibility. Mel Morris acquired through a New Entity the Club, and wrote down the Player Registrations/Intangible Fixed Assets to their "Fair Value" but is intending to Account for it or some of it under Goodwill rather than the correct method. Muddying the waters, blurring the picture?

As an aside, given that Derby's underlying loss prior to FFP exclusions was in excess of £40m in 2017/18 and was around £37m- I say Derby, I mean Sevco 5112 as per the EFL Written Reasons from last August, it surely cannot have been the case that the £37m loss included a £22m Player Registration Impairment- would have meant total Wages/Operating Costs fell by £25m in 2018/19 assuming Revenue remained similar. Maybe £20m if Revenue bumped up.

As a further aside, still no Confirmation Statement- due in August 2020- for Sevco 5112. Gellaw Newco 203 seems to be top of the tree but it's not entirely clear given a) Lack of Confirmation Statement for Sevco 5112 , b) No Accounts for any of the companies for 2 years now and c) The Persons with Significant Control for the Club, the Academy, Club DCFC and Stadia DCFC are all listed as being Sevco 5112. I still have to wonder if they've tried to bundle up any Impairment of Player Registration with that of Goodwill. ie "These players I adjudge to be worth less than their Book Value, so I'll include it in the Goodwill on Acquisition".

Like I said in THE Derby thread.. straight 2 points deduction now, 18 to start next season and 10 million fine. If they appeal double the fine and points deduction. 

Stop messing about and get on with their fully deserved demotion.

Adams Park is a lovely little ground and they make a decent chip. 

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hamburg another big club, have hit hard times too- follow German football periodically and they failed to get Promotion again, still stuck in the 2nd tier.

I do remember Werder Bremen in CL in mid-late 2000's, quite a good side.

The Nord Derby is back on next season as a result .. Werder v Hamburg; always a frosty affair.

I think both will be up the top. Way too strong for most teams in that division. Both simply need a German Nigel Pearson now. 

16 hours ago, city1983 said:

Chelsea have not always been there or thereabouts. and I believe have been outside the top flight in my lifetime. It would probably be more like Everton being relegated 

Or Arsenal as Ralph suggested.. one longest serving club to another.

Its that bad Hats? How so? You have kept quite close to their management down the years to know they have lost their way?

If you look at the various crimes of Luton it all added up to 20 points plus as I recall. Derby have also made multiple infractions.

In order for the rules to be adhered to it not only has to take effect now but it also has to include sanction for the beginning of next season. In short, one infraction causes relegation, likely the least serious as it only needs 1 or 2 points correct? . Another infraction to be applied for the start of the new season. I would like to see them start in League One with -18 points and a find of £10 million.

Unless the punishment is punitive it will keep happening. If they appeal and lose, the evidence of which I am told is overwhelming, the punishment doubles. -36 points and £20 million.

We don't actually need football clubs who treat the game with such utter disdain.

I must confess, in all honesty, that I never liked Parry; he always struck me as a bit of a whimpy smiler yes man. I suspect he will either have an epiphany and dish out the necessary or, more likely, revert to type.

God help the game for the next few seasons if he does nothing other than a pathetic cowardly points deduction for next season. Simply a cop out and perhaps some inducing handover at Charnock Richard Services. Always felt it was a decent brown paper bag type place with a howling wind blowing around at that altitude. Perhaps he can have a go on the Knightmare Roller Coaster to cleanse the conscience. Maybe its his Camelot.

7 hours ago, CyderInACan said:

Who is the bigger disgrace - Derby or the EFL? 

Without doubt the crime itself; no comparison between committing one and incompetence.

5 hours ago, fatchers said:

I can't see Wayne Rooney's Derby being relegated. Justice will not be seen to be done. Little Wycombe will be the fall guys along with credibility of the EFL.

They lost ALL credibility when they decided to ditch 130 odd years of tradition and being known, worldwide, as THE Football League to basically ANY old football league... a massive and inept own goal if ever there was one. Pathetic cronies and 'marketing' idiots. I will always call it The Football League; because it is., it was the first. It was respected around the world and people understood it could literally be called THE Football League. They trashed that in a couple months of donut munching coffee swilling board room bollox discussions with a bunch of limp dicks as so called 'experts'.

As Big Tone opined; losing interest in football is starting to become endemic.

Are the Football League hoping this will quietly disappear?

Will Wycombe have to call the legal team in?

Two weeks after the season has ended and the Pride Park club, via its online newspaper mouthpiece, is already arrogantly discussing the seasons new fixtures in the Championship.

Do they know more than the rest of us? have they paid someone off handsomely to ensure the club remain much more attractive to a buyer?

How the mighty can fall. They escaped on the last day last season but this time they could not save themselves. Dispensing with their manager Florian Kohfeldt just before the final game of this season in a final roll of the dice. That was a tough call to make. The club felt Kohfeldt deserved another bash at improving on last season but it failed. A club known for its loyalty to managers is very admirable and, with Rehhagel and Schaaf, has worked spectacularly down the years. Not this time.

For an obscure reason I have followed Werder since I was a teenager just keeping an eye on their results.

Otto Rehhagel was their longest serving manager and what a incredible job he did there. He managed Werder Bremen from 1981 to 1995. During these 14 golden years for the club, Rehhagel transformed Werder from a small minnow into a powerhouse, dazzling spectators with powerful up-tempo play and a smothering defence. During this spell, Werder Bremen established themselves as one of the main teams in the Bundesliga, overtaking hated rivals Hamburg as the top club in the north and sparking an intense feud with Bayern Munich who he went on to manage after leaving Werder. In the mid-eighties, Rehhagel often fell just short of success and had a string of second places and Cup Final losses. In that time, his nickname was Otto II or Vizeadmiral ("Vice Admiral"). However, Rehhagel led Werder to two German championships in 1988 and 1993, two DFB Pokal victories in 1991 and 1994, as well as winning the European Cup Winners Cup in 1992. In this period, Rehhagel produced a host of international stars, such as Rudi Voller, Karheinz Riedle, dieter Elts, Marco Bode, Mario Basler, Hany Ramzy, Andreas Herzog and Rune Bratseth. Rehhagel's team of 1987–88 was until recently the squad which conceded the fewest goals ever in the Bundesliga (22), this record was surpassed by Bayern Munich in the 2007–08 season with 21 goals. His  14 year stint with Werder is the second longest consecutive occupation as a manager ever in the Bundesliga. It was only recently surpassed by Volker Finke of Freiburg (16 years).

Thomas Schaaf also managed Werder for 14 years and was also very successful, wining the double in 2003-4 and he also managed them to several cup victories including to the final of the old UEFA cup final in 2009 where they just fell short to Shaktar. He qualified them 5 times for the Champions League from 2004-9. He left by 'mutual consent' in 2014 having finished mid table and, once again, a club failed to improve after he left as so often happens; it was a slow fall after that.

Schaaf was linked to the club for four decades since his days as a youth player. During the press conference where he announced his resignation, he spoke of his admiration of the club and the joy of his time spent at the Weserstadion, saying, "I had an extraordinary time here, connected with a lot of positive experiences and great successes. I would like to thank everyone who accompanied me along the way and supported me. I wish Werder Bremen a successful future.

He soon found work again for Eintracht and then Hannover 96. He returned for the final game this season when it was a do or die win; they lost and have been relegated.

Werder hold the record for the most seasons played in the Bundesliga and are third in the all time Bundesliga table, behind Bayern and Dortmund.

They say he is currently Interim coach but the club could do a lot worse than making it permanent for a push at an immediate return. I wish them well.

19 minutes ago, The Wild Bunch said:

Agree that we need to change the name of the South Stand.  We should  also recognise the great contributions made by Alan Dicks, Harry Thicket and Terry Cooper around the stadium.

Well there is only stand up for grabs so you will just have to settle for who took City up with the most points, least defeats and who stayed up the longest. Thicket or Dicks? Terry will have to wait his turn.

It's not enough, nowhere near enough. We know it and Hodgson knows it. He's a crafty beggar, although I like him.

7 hours ago, downendcity said:

Doris the tea lady?

She is already in Suffolk house hunting.

4 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Might as well, would hinder them jabbing you in the foot anyway.

A double entendre there Noggers, how very subtle of you.  

3 hours ago, petehinton said:

Eliasson looking like he’ll be playing in Ligue Two as it stands

Yes I have been following Nimes a tad too. Slowly but inexorably falling to the drop zone. It's a beautiful place though. Has an amphitheatre in far better condition than Rome's. Well worth a visit for anyone.. arhhh.... No Snapps has put Oz on his daft green traffic light list but not our nearest neighbour. Maybe in 2035 then.