havanatopia

33 minutes ago, Kykoliko said:

No please do. There's been a lot of not bothering going around.

They all started in China.

Lifestyle and laws could be amended to ensure cross over of diseases from animals to humans is minimalised; there is little to no evidence this has been enacted by Chinese authorities. 

Does this adequately explain? 

23 hours ago, Kykoliko said:

And just how is China responsible?

Not sure where to begin on this?!!!! Perhaps I simply won't bother.

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Some clubs are spawny, lucky I must say. 

Aston Villa spring to mind, Derby possibly maybe another, with respect to finance, FFP etc.

One bit of news. EFL have dropped/withdrawn the charges against Chansiri, Meire and Redgate. 

To be specific and clear, these are the personal misconduct charges. 

Part of me wonders if they are not pushing too hard on this aspect due to the exceptional circumstances. For example, might the very solvency of Sheffield Wednesday have been in doubt had Chansiri been banned, in these times with no revenue flowing in?

Very flimsy if charges have been dropped due to totally unrelated world events. Surely even the FL would not stoop so low?

56 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Posted this link earlier;

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-the-coronavirus-mortality-rate-so-much-lower-in-germany-

Much the same as Havanas post.

If you do not have an account with the Spectator that link will only let you read so far I believe which is why I copied a lot of it verbatum and just added my thoughts at the end. I should have added the source. 

29 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

Hinkly Point canteen 

https://www.bridgwatermercury.co.uk/news/18330262.social-distancing-fears-hinkley-point-c-canteen-despite-edfs-best-efforts/?ref=fbshr&fbclid=IwAR1SfsHyMXeA7z5cQ-MoMN4zsX3OVMSc2nuatSY8UpYcJHvM1Em3FJXVqwI

 

24 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

What hope have we got  or are they all macho men the virus wouldn't touch !!!!!!! these people are putting yours and my families life at risk, see references to Germany's figures and I bet this wont be happening there

Perhaps they are all Ukrainians from Chernobyl. Hardly matters then does it. 

1 hour ago, Crackers Corner said:

How are Germany keeping the fatality rate so much lower than everyone else?

Here is the background to your question:-

the latest figures from the Robert Koch Institute show that the country has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.3 per cent, while the World Health Organisation (WHO) figures from Italy seem to show a CFR of 9 per cent? To say there is a vast gulf between those figures is an understatement. If nine per cent of people who catch Covid-19 are going to die from it we are facing a calamity beyond parallel in the modern world. If only 0.3 per cent of people who catch it die from it, this pandemic may yet turn out to be no worse than seasonal flu which it is estimated, by the US Centers for Disease Control, to kill between 291,000 and 646,000 people a year without the world really noticing. According to John Hopkins University, which is collating fatalities data, 15,308 have died to date.

and the probable reason...

So which is closer to the real situation, Italy’s experience or Germany’s? Various theories have been put forward for Germany’s low death rate: for example that many of those who have tested positive for Covid-19 are young people who had returned from skiing holidays in Italy. The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy. Some have expressed the fear that young German skiers will slowly infect their parents and grandparents’ generation, and that the death rate will steadily rise as the disease works its way through more vulnerable elderly people.

Germany is almost certainly behind Italy in this epidemic. But the main difference between Germany and Italy lies in those countries’ respective attitudes towards testing. Germany has carried out far more enthusiastic testing of the general population – there does not seem to be a central figure for this, but the German Doctors’ Association has estimated that 200,000 people across the country have been tested. In Britain, it is 64,000 people. On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.

This matters hugely to the Case Fatality Rate for each country. CFR is not to be confused with the genuine Mortality Rate. The former is simply the number of deaths divided by the number of recorded cases. The latter is the number of deaths divided by the actual number of people who have been infected by the disease. Trouble is, nobody knows the latter figure because no country has tested its entire population to see who has or has had the disease. What we do know is that large numbers of people who have been confirmed as having the disease only have mild symptoms – 45 per cent according to Italy’s National Institute for Health. One in 10 have no symptoms at all. There must be many others who have been infected but haven’t been tested and therefore who do now show up as confirmed cases.

It stands to reason that the more people who are tested, the more accurate a picture we will have of the mortality rate, the transmission rate and other metrics which will determine the eventual path of this pandemic. To underline the uncertainties behind the data from which policy is currently being made, the Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the other day estimated the number of people in Britain who already have or have had Covid-19 at between 6,000 and 23 million. That is a pretty broad spread with hugely different implications. If only 6,000 have the disease in Britain, socially-distancing the population or locking down society might have a purpose. If 23 million have the disease, it is pointless – it already has ripped its way through the population but without killing more than a tiny percentage.

What we really need is a huge effort to test a large randomised sample of the population to see how widespread the infection is. Hopefully, that will soon happen. But in the meantime, I am minded to think that the more accurate picture of Covid-19 comes from the country which has conducted the most tests: Germany.

In summary, and what I have said from early on, the ultimate death rate will be no more than 0.5% of those who contract it or, in the case of current data from Germany, even less. Still a ways to go but all the data, reliably being gathered, is pointing toward that. Flu, remember, is about 0.1%. The burning question then will be has it been worth it trashing the world's economies. The answer will probably be 'did we have any choice' ? But that will leave us with a thousand lessons to learn, worldwide, and hopefully next time, because there will for sure be others, the whole world will not need to shut down.

3 hours ago, walsh left foot said:

Evening... Just looking for some advice and anyone in the know. I currently have shared custody of my 2 children but as of today are with their mum. Anyone know where I would stand with collecting them and spending time with them? Me and their mum both live on our own so the kids would only come into contact with us but I’m not sure what the rules are?? Any advice would be appreciated.

That is a tough one. Would you not all maintain that you are effectively one 'household' and therefore movement between the two homes is a natural thing for all of you? Think of it literally then as one home but different parts of it. This is a humanitarian family issue and I would think if outlined in this way the powers that be would fully accept and support that the welfare of children is paramount. 

Let's not forget, this is not the bubonic plague.

2 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

I recommend everyone to watch Trump’s press conference just then. Like nothing I’ve ever seen before.  USA first day over 100 deaths. Trump talking about virus in past tense. Says normal flu kills more people.  Says economy is back. Moving on. More people will commit suicide if economy is bad than will die from covid. USA wasn’t built to be shut down apparently. 

He is right about a few of those remarks. Just not PC is it. What a shame.

9 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

https://www.heathrow.com/arrivals

I can understand flying back Britons from wherever - but all these flights can't be that can they ?

8 hours ago, freezer said:

Why oh why are flights from China, Italy and Iran still allowed to land in this country. 

Absolute madness! 

There are at least 10 million Britons living abroad. Might take a while to fly back that many don't you think?

55 minutes ago, wood_red said:

Nobody will disagree that the NHS is massively underfunded, but it has hardly been just the last few years has it. I thought it was a good point by downendcity that nobody seemed to respond to at all regarding PFI. 

How much money has Blairs actions cost the NHS, and still continues to cost them? Does anyone have the answers?

 

I am sure those costs are somewhere to be found. Be interesting to see people attempting to pin the blame elsewhere other than Labour. No doubt saying it's all Boris' fault simply for breathing.

43 minutes ago, Harry said:

NHS funding has been a problem since it came into being in 1948. 
The 1944 white paper estimated the annual cost at £132m. 
In the first full year in 1948, the actual cost was £248m. 
By 1951 it had increased to £384m. 

The system has been playing catch-up since day 1. 

It will forever be thus considering the continuingly ageing demographic. And there will continue to be an ongoing argument or debate of more tax vis a vis a continuing free 'at point of delivery' service. There are no easy answers. Many people think there are and that simply throwing more money at it will give the optimal result. If only life were that simple.

Here is that video I was talking about in an earlier post about ventilators being categorically canned by this poor guy...

4 hours ago, Odysseus said:

Any American I’ve met in this county begs to differ and are amazed no matter who you are you get live saving treatment for free. I’d rather have that for the many than the inconvenience of having to wait weeks longer for an MRI. The problem with our current health system is due to Tory underfunding and staff shortages. 

I watched Fractured the other night. I would rather our system for sure; by and large the NHS is fantastic.

22 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Record attendances apparently;

https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/media/press-releases/2019/03/record-attendances-throughout-the-festival-presented-by-magners-in-2019/

 

Bit like many coastal towns yesterday.

Who mentioned ventilators? Anyway, something I came across this morning and I am still searching for a decent quality video to post concerns first hand experience of ventilator use by one Corona virus victim. So this guy explained that when he lay down in his hospital bed he felt all the symptoms, such as giddy head, aching body, dry cough etc melting away. He felt in a great place. But then the doctors noticed his breathing became laboured so they put him on a ventilator. This was fine for a little while but then they noticed that he was beginning to fall asleep and felt he could be slipping into a coma and cardiac rest. So they woke him up. And his pulse returned to normal. This happened more than once so they started to get him to sit up. This brought his heart rate back to even more stable but he had terrible pain when they did this and he vomited each time. His analogy; the ventilator gives you initial relief but it will kill you as your normal bodily functions shut down. He remains in hospital but is getting better. Now, must find that video because he explains it a whole lot better. 

30 minutes ago, walnutroof said:

Those Japanese ones are awesome you could happily spent longer on it than you need to and then hardly need any toilet paper if at all 

They most certainly are. Well worth buying one and take up no extra space. A quick adaptation of the existing Ideal Standard is also possible. Definitely the way forward. I shall be on line with these on eBay asap!

17 hours ago, walnutroof said:

Could be slightly encouraging news

15 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

So despite Italy being two weeks ahead of us we learnt nothing in those two weeks and are now tracking them. Great

The one statistic I have bought into from the start is that approximately 60% of the world's population will probably contract a mild to fatal covid 19. Nothing we do will change that approximate percentage. You will likely see a world average of around 0.5% dying which is five times that of flu. Long way to go but these are my informed estimates based on the past, what we know and what I am reading and watching in informed quarters, i hasten to add, and not in the highly politicised arena.

6 hours ago, Sweeneys Penalties said:

and if the Toilet Roll shortage keeps going, I'll be popping down Tesco for a dump

As others have said perhaps it is time, after all of this, to invest in washing with a B day or an adapted toilet. I have been doing it for 30 years. I love a good blast and feel nice and clean afterwards  

6 minutes ago, gl1 said:

I’m not an expert but a quick search brings back figures of around 600,000 deaths per year. Winter months around 45000 to 60000 deaths per month, falling to mid to high 30,000’s in the summer months. Looking back at last decade January deaths are anywhere between 45,000 and 60,000, this year was a spike though. But Is does go up and the last winter flu epidemic looks like it claimed 10,000 ish 

 

World numbers range from 300k to 600k.

4 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

No they are not, and they haven't been.  That's why people are complaining. The standard of leadership from the top has been pathetic, and unsurprising considering Bozo's record in public office. Don't be naive.

Keeping the red flag flying I see. 

2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

We are exactly the same as Italy in stats and also in the public’s relaxed attitude to isolation and social distancing. Italian people now talk of regret in their early actions. The UK People are copying those early actions 

Germany's stats hugely stand out. 4 times the cases of the UK with about 40% of the deaths. 

I think these stats are going to be all over the place until we are well past it because the testing is at different points of the graph.

2 minutes ago, pillred said:

It was a news flash 5 minutes ago.

2 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

That's without the figures from England.

Fair play chaps. It's moving all the time.

4 minutes ago, pillred said:

Death toll up 53 today to a total of 233.

Worldometer says 180, up 3.

One interesting question I would pose from those stats is that perhaps in 'normal' times a bit more self distancing of flu sufferers could save a few hundred lives a year. It will be interesting to see if we come out of this and maintain some more sensible habits.

30 minutes ago, gl1 said:

Death count

In January there was an increase of over 2900 deaths compared to jan 2019. 
9000 more deaths than December 

56000 deaths in January in total

 

looks like coronavirus has already claimed a few thousand in jan. I know there was no recorded cases but I don’t think there was testing was there?

So if the curve of deaths follow Italy and we lose 4000 in a month, there would be a lift of 8% on presumption that none of the 4000 would have died anyway

not sure what to feel about these figures. Your Thoughts?

 

From Coffee House @ The Spectator
By Ross Clark
Could measures we’ve taken to stop Covid-19 already be saving lives?
20 March 2020, 12:15am
Text
Comments

Perspective is a bit in short supply at the moment but if you want a brief respite from the onslaught of bad news, take a look at these statistics. They are Office for National Statistics figures for the total numbers of deaths from respiratory diseases in England and Wales for February this year, compared with last year.

2019    2020
7 February    1,918    1,572 (-346)
14 February    1,931    1,586 (-345)
21 February    1,890    1,587 (-303)
28 February    1,786    1,517 (-269)

4 hours ago, LondonBristolian said:

I apologise. I had not realised there was still nothing being offered to self employed people. That is appalling and needs sorting out.

Do some fact checking; there is. Some will say not enough, some will always say that.

2 hours ago, CotswoldRed said:

Just wish he'd raise tax that directly targets those who can afford it. It's now we need their wealth. 

I'm willing to pay more.

I am sure there will be plenty of time to tax us more in order to get past what will be a huge deficit in the budget; taxing people now is rather futile given that the majority in Britain are currently forced to quarantine and working from home is not viable.

5 hours ago, Frenchay Red said:

Judging by the glowing praise on here following today's announcements, I would hazard a guess that no self employed skilled tradesmen are adding to the endorsements.

I am.

4 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

All the ones that come home with handfuls of cash each day because they don't put hardly anything through the books you mean? 

I pay UK tax. And I don't even live half the time in the UK. 

I am happy to pay my fair share... It's quite amazing some of the remarks on here. Not surprising I suppose but when you experience the levels of corruption in other parts of the world not least where I am you thank the lord you are fortunate to be born a Brit.

12 hours ago, Maesknoll Red said:

Apparently this was one persons rations for a week in the war, I assume bread and veg were added, but how would many cope with that.....

 

2oz of butter Mum says down in Cornwall back in the forties.

6 hours ago, pillred said:

As I said the drugs for HIV seem to work against Covid 19, and as they are tried and already tested should enable them to be fast tracked, as for having enough for all of us well your guess is as good as mine.

Let's hope if they are used we don't run out of counter measure drugs such as those to stop diorhea. 

2 hours ago, bpexile said:

According to the Ozzie link, apparently because of the fact that both of the drugs that are being combined have been through the stringent tests before in other applications, it could reduce the testing times, lets hope so.

Side effects likely to be severe I reckon. If one is healthy might be best to simply ride it out rather than stuff your body with medications that are a bit on the strong side. People should be improving their immune systems in any proven natural way possible and there are plenty.

34 minutes ago, lenred said:

There’s been no civil disobedience anywhere else with those stringent measures already in place. Why would there be here?  There won’t be, it’s just more scaremongering.  

Do you know that for a fact? Perhaps you have an account with Reuters and can scour the world news; even if you did I am sure there is a fair share of civil disobedience going on. 

I still reckon there is some mileage in the conspiracy that China started this to quell the civil disobedience that was already getting out of control in HK and in fact in some other cities. Probably a far fetched idea but I would not put it past that current regime I really wouldn't.

The Chinese military, for example, now have undercover plain clothes agents in many 'friendly' countries. 3000 it is said here in the Philippines. What for? To ensure Duterte remains in power and friendly. 

8 minutes ago, pillred said:

These aren't normal times though, I expect to see an unprecedented fast tracking of possible vaccines, the Australian use of HIV medicines sounds very promising they are already fairly tried and tested. 

I referred to fast tracking by saying months not years. We are some way off having a vaccine available to all... My guess is we could see roll out possibly as early as late autumn... But that would be a world record.