Ian M

2 minutes ago, RedRoss said:

Isn't he just saying what we already know?

Budgets been set and we're at the ceiling.

Were not bringing anyone in after selling Scott.

The budget is set by the hierarchy above him so he's not the person to ask on why.

He'll keep cracking on regardless as his job is the football.

What's he said that's new?

By the way I definitely think we need to up that budget and get in a couple of players on reasonable wages.

 

What Nigel clearly can’t get his head around is you build budgets based on what you think your income is likely going to be over the accounting period. We did that in March. Since then we have made a player sale that trumps any other single income stream and yet the budget remains at its original level (and presumably the targets despite having reduced assets).

I’ve seen suggestions along the lines of “Nige knew what the wage cap was, he chose to spend it this way” along with the general conception that we are 2 players short (see Norwich bench for evidence to back that up.

If we presume Cornick to be one our highest earners on around £15k per week and add that many fans fail to see what he brings (not me, I think he has his uses), potentially he would be a good example for someone we could have not signed and bought 3 players instead. To do that, those three players would have had to be signed on less than the League One average salary!

If we want to have a decently sized squad, we are going to have to cost cut yet further and impose a maximum salary of £10k per week and risk the results that players who will accept those terms may bring.

2 minutes ago, Finley_Smith10 said:

years of mediocrity in the championship with no ambition to get out of it. All this talk of a plan when Scott goes and we can’t even go out and spend abit of money just to boost the quality of the squad

Plan A with Scott - go for the play-offs

Plan B without Scott - try to stay up.

Same support cast for both plans.

Pearson is making a stand against SL. There will only be one winner.

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

…and what happens next.  The manager is the one that goes.

FWIW I think Nige is toeing the line…for now.  He feels this squad isn’t far off (others may disagree, that’s cool) and if we can muddle our way through the period without Andi and Tommy, get some more info re McCrorie, we can still be in a reasonable position.  If he does that, then he is gonna make it difficult for SL to give him the heave-ho, and strengthen his own position to get an extension.  That may culminate with a re-think of budget in January.  Tgat will be a helluva an achievement if he can keep / get us mid-table / top-half.

So I think he hides his true feelings for now.

Losing Alex (ok his injury has in some respects cushioned the blow) was far from ideal for the early season aspirations, but it’s hardly like we are sat in the bottom three is it.

However should things start to get messy, then I think we will hear some home truths because I think he knows he’ll be on his way.

which in the grand scheme of things on a 4 year contract with wages would’ve been peanuts.

Shame his injury history has played out, because he looks a talented kid.

I agree. Other than posts on a message board, there won't be any real pressure on the board unless results dip and we fall down the table and if that happens a lot of fans would likely turn on NP, making it an easy win to fire him and relieve that pressure.

The depressing part for me is that I have zero confidence that the club will appoint from a club playing philosophy POV and his replacement will start the long process of re-shaping the squad in his desired image.

4 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

There is only one person responsible for putting the club in a position where it seems unattractive to buyers in comparison to other clubs. If we take our fan blinkers off we are relatively high cost, achieve very little and are treading water in a period of austerity caused by basket case spending from a few seasons ago that directly affects our competitiveness. Then you have to add in a structure where it is very difficult to purchase the football club only if that’s all that interests you and probably restricted even if you can broker that deal. Who wants to buy a business with those “credentials”?

Oh I thought of another factor. He could also be wanting the Village Green land included in any deal with the planning permission for housing on part of it being justification for another bump in asking price.

Not good if you're just interested in buying a football club and trying to make it succeed.

"It is my belief that..." the reason it's taking so long for a sale/investment to come forward is that SL wants a buyer for Bristol Sport, lock stock and barrel. Whilst there may be buyers out there who see the potential at the right place for buying Bristol City, backing themselves through processes to get us promoted and seeing the value of that investment increase*, the added surcharge that comes from the rugby and basketball teams being included in any sale pushes would-be-investors towards other clubs in the Championship with similar potential.

*Football clubs largely remain unprofitable account wise but the profit seems to be in holding for a few years then selling at a higher price, much like housing. For City, that would require a promotion first.

48 minutes ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

I was referring to coaches/managers, not players. Mind, a coach/manager from overseas wouldn't be buying Harry Cornick or Mark Sykes. Or George Tanner. He'd be bringing in talent from elsewhere (but not on our current budget, of course). There are stats that demonstrate non Uk/Irish head coaches/managers win more points per game in English football  (including lower leagues) than home grown ones. It's a fact! The numbers have been crunched, Brit managers are overrated, and dopey club owners plough on regardless appointing less able but familiar looking/sounding blokes to do a statistically poorer job.

"But that's because Jose was at Chelsea, Pep at Man City, Klopp at Liverpool" you're thinking. "It's not comparing like-for-like." It's the same in the lower leagues. The stats from 92/3 over three decades in the Football League reveal that Brit/Irish managers average 1.36 points per game, whilst overseas managers average 1.49, a six point difference over 46 games.

 

Is Steve Lansdown even aware of this data?

 

One thing I'd counter there is that even at lower league level, it's generally the more affluent clubs at any level that have brought in a foreign coach. The paupers at the bottom of the table are the clubs employing the "honest pro" managers that then aren't skilled enough to supplant their budgetary restrictions.

3 minutes ago, Shauntaylor85 said:

They don’t understand what it takes to be successful on the pitch that is why. Time for change and I’ll keep saying that because seriously baffled with current events. Nige has done a good job, shame it’s not being reciprocated with backing. 

Could this be a situation where our manager is actually more popular with the supporters than with the hierarchy. Quite rare for that to happen, it could be argued that Cotts achieved this too, though his reaction to backing being withheld turned a few against him.

Edit: but can we learn from this history? Unpopular manager with the board, has backing withheld when he feels close to being competitive, reacts badly, gets replaced, new manager gets backed. We have built up a little "nest egg" to support a new appointment in the January window?

5 minutes ago, mozo said:

I think if I'm being boring now and playing devil's advocate it is conceivable that pitch was as follows:

"Nige we've got quite a task ahead. I want the club to be self-sustaining and I don't want to bankroll the operation like I have done for years. We need to reduce the wage bill to x, we need to maximise transfer income and minimise transfer outgoings. If we can offload the deadwood in the squad, take of advantage of the academy recruits, and recruit hungry young talent from lower leagues or free transfers from our competitors, you can then use your experience to create a positive culture and a tight-knit squad. Lets push as far up the league on that basis as we can."

So the promise doesn't include spending to push for promotion.

Nige has clearly had to make requests along the way, such as new coaching staff, and paying off player contracts for the good of the team spirit.

But did he expect anything other than what is happening now? Hopefully we'll find out...

But if a promotion challenge wasn't part of the "sell", why was SL quick to pushback when Twentyman probed him about a new deal for Nigel that he hadn't achieved anything yet. JL too has accused NP of under-achieving. If cost cutting and treading water was the only target then NP is meeting that very nicely and talks would already have begun.

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed. The squad feels dangerously thin and as you say although winning isn't necessarily the be all and end all at that level, there have been some terrible results for us so far at that level!

I thought the squad wasa bit thin post January again partially out of necessity, let alone now with the multiple injuries. They and arguably Yeboah should all be learning their trade still at U21.

Yeboah at least is getting minutes off the bench which will aid his development. RA and JKL just sit on the bench "just in case they're needed".

How have we set a budget that does not allow us to fulfil the requirements of the club's first team just weeks into the season.

Let's hope we don't have an injury crisis akin to last Autumn where we were left playing without any recognised centre backs.

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I would say looking at the last 2 seasons a club hamstrung by FFP isn't especially enticing.

We will now be well clear but in a year's time even more so as the £28.5m pre tax loss finally disappears from view, the legacy loss falls off, the headroom increases further. TV money is set to rise next year too.

If any time feels optimum it could be summer 2024.

There is also a rule whereby if FFP losses fall below the Lower limit over a given period then Future Financial Information is less stringent- another possible selling point? New owners do inherit the existing position.

I mean, you could always just tell a buyer this. 
We are unlikely to sell the club today so a last minute splurge in this window is kinda out the question.

Sell the club this season and the new owners would have a good amount of time to get processes lined up within the club ahead of next Summer's transfer window (Making sure they have the management team they want in place, ensuring recruitment is operating as they wish etc)

3 minutes ago, Glen hump said:

Anybody think with a little bit of heat coming Steve’s way ‘ he might come out and do a proper interview or get the new ceo to do 1 ‘ I think I know the answer ‘ a big fat no .

It'd be advisable not to. Over the years, when there has been a bit of pressure from fans, that's when SL has come out with his worst soundbites. Eg "It's my club!"

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

NP has already taken to not filling his bench so is that a sign of things to come.

8 subs at Hull 7 In the Cup v Norwich.

That concerns me for the future.

Due to budgets set in March and not adjusted for player trading, we are left in a position where to fill the bench we have to select players who would otherwise be playing for the U21s.

Presumably U21 football is good for their development, otherwise why have it. So we are left with the choice to either let them develop in the U21s or have a full first team squad some weeks.

That's before you consider that taking Araoye and Knight-Lebel out of the U21s to fill spots on the bench has a detrimental impact on the development of the other U21s as they are now in a much weaker team, enjoying less of the ball etc

Just now, mozo said:

Yep, I'm totally with you, but also a little wary of us being convinced that SL has messed Nige around. I could completely imagine it, but can't be sure it's correct. 

Like I said elsewhere, I think we'll start to get vibes from Nige (Nige-vibes), especially if the team starts to struggle.

The alternative is that SL sold the dream thus:

"Hey Nigel, would you like to come manage my football team? In year 1 you're gonna have to cost cut a lot. Year 2 loads of the same, I'm rather afraid we're in a bit of a mess. But when you reach Year 3 and have got us on an even keel, that's when we'll sell your team's best player from under you and not let this change the budgets set the year before at all. What do you say to that?"

If that worked I reckon SL should have a go at selling some Eskimos a batch of frozen water  

6 minutes ago, mozo said:

Ian, as much as I like this narrative, is the bit in bold definitely true? How do we know that is what he was sold?

None of us can "know" anything, unless we are SL or NP but this is the take I get from all the various soundbites of the last 3 years during press conferences and interviews.

Maybe I should have pre-faced even more lines in my post as "It is my belief that...." I thought I had caught all the angles but I'll try to do better in future.

This isn't a criminal court so I am operating on the basis of "on the balance of probabilities"  

"What football makes, football can spend."

1 hour ago, mozo said:

"We balance the books, we balance the boooks, we're Bristol City, we balance the books!"

"We're shit, but we're in the black..."

All together now...

Maybe our away kit will be black to match our new club identity?

2 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Our income isn’t solely down to season ticket sales - you’re forgetting lots of other revenues streams - hospitality, merchandise, TV income for example.

And the questions still stand - if our “simple housekeeping” requires us to sell a £25 million pound player and not spend a penny of it - how the hell is that in any way sustainable, what happens when we don’t have a £25 million pound player to sell, and how are other clubs competing without enormous transfer receipts?

Sell multiple players? Conway and Pring the prime candidates in 10 months time. So exciting.

When is the next U21 fixture? Will we be able to pick a full squad or will these players be required to play for the age group?

11 minutes ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Out of Likes for the day.

So have 12 million virtual ones

If Nige wants to sign players before deadline day he should download Football Manager.

The knowledge that we will likely not make a loss this season will give me a warm fuzzy feeling inside as we labour to break down teams every fortnight at Ashton Gate. 
 

Who else is excited to think how much we can get for Conway in the Summer? Our balance sheet could look pretty exciting over the next two seasons

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

@Philly The Kid 12 months.

Yes, assuming we hadn’t taken the offer off the table.  In all likelihood if he were to come back it would be like a new signing.

If we took the contract offer off the table would that also remove our eligibility to compensation?

18 minutes ago, mozo said:

Just me and you probably!

It's a shame it played out how it did because I reckon he'd have got gametime this season.

I also think he'd have paired well with Knight in our current midfield.

1 hour ago, Alessandro said:

Really surprised by those stats (an open goal at 12 yards and a free header at 5 yards) but there we go, who am I to argue with the computers!! 

And yet Williams and Knight ably demonstrated that these chances are often missed.