Lee Johnson Sack Watch (Merged, again and again)

[Mike Hunt-Hertz]

2 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Had me on this one Mike!

I had to look up the meaning of 'Deity' !!!

It's nothing to do with cutting out the doughnuts. 

[boss hogg]

2 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

You've just made me remember the old school playground alternative...

have you ever been caught sniffing your mum's knickers?

hasn,t everyone ?

[samo II]

4 minutes ago, Redstreet said:

Beating Rotherham will answer nothing as next 4 games would be an enormous  challenge for an inform BCFC . I fear the worst . Birmingham City no wins in 9 under Zola . Two wrongs don't make a right I know but they made a big error sacking Gary Rowett . If LJ goes after this week , any incoming manager has an almost impossible task . The board should have acted by now . 

Last season, LJ joined after the Charlton game, meaning he had the same number of points as we do now, and just 16 games to turn it around.  I'd also argue he had a less impressive squad to make an impression with.

If LJ can take the apparent "huge positives" from yesterday and convert that into a decent 4+ points over the next two games, we'e a good base line to build on, and stand as much of a chance as anyone at the bottom of staying up.  But if all this talk of getting our "identify back" (no idea what that means TBH) is just blown away by Wednesday on Tuesday, I think it will be pretty clear action is needed to attempt to keep us in this league.

And being that the players still seem to want to play for the club (with one notable exception), we've still been bringing in decent signings to improve a decent squad despite our bad run, and the fans are not turning on the team at games; you really have to question what aspect is lacking, and as is the nature of the job, the buck has to stop with LJ.

Really is 'this week or bust' for LJ, I feel.

[The Coach]

I'm not voting on this poll, I feel the two choices given do not reflect how I truly feel. Even if we do beat Rotherham I still think it is best if LJ goes. 

Sorry if I upset a few posters on here, I'm never one to be negative. But I feel somehow Lansdown has already sealed the clubs fate this season, and that is we will be relegated. Looking at our remaining fixtures,  I cannot see us pick up any more than 20 points, and that's being generous in my view. Giving us around 47 points come May. I don't think that's going to be enough this season to survive in this league, compared to last season. It also seems Lansdown is happy to potentially risk losing 6 points in the next two home games before dismissing Lee, who should of gone after the Forest defeat for sure. For me, It's going to take some miracle from now to the end of the season to pick up points each week and pull away from the current teams around us. 

Remember this very post today, come May I may be right. Hopefully not of course, as I cannot stand the thought of League One football yet again. It's going to get pulses racing for sure.

[roylegalatyeo]

Not posted here for a while,and I must admit that I posted last year about LJ being a good appointmet.But how sadly wrong I was.He admittedly did a good job here until Cardiff away.But why oh why did SL not intervene .No other club would have allowed such a disasterous run of form to continue.Yesterdays defeat was FA cup,realistically did any one exspect us to win there?

But for the sake of our status as a championship club LJ do the decent thing and go.This cannot be allowed to continue , far more worse than relegation is the fear of playing the gas in league1 next year.

[oldstandrobin]

[CotswoldRed]

41 minutes ago, Mike Hunt-Hertz said:

The deity works in mysterious ways, my son.

He certainly does. I've always been keen to know whether malaria or cholera are amongst his favourite creations

[samo II]

5 minutes ago, Red_Wizard said:

I'm not voting on this poll, I feel the two choices given do not reflect how I truly feel. Even if we do beat Rotherham I still think it is best if LJ goes. 

Sorry if I upset a few posters on here, I'm never one to be negative. But I feel somehow Lansdown has already sealed the clubs fate this season, and that is we will be relegated. Looking at our remaining fixtures,  I cannot see us pick up any more than 20 points, and that's being generous in my view. Giving us around 47 points come May. I don't think that's going to be enough this season to survive in this league, compared to last season. It also seems Lansdown is happy to potentially risk losing 6 points in the next two home games before dismissing Lee, who should of gone after the Forest defeat for sure. For me, It's going to take some miracle from now to the end of the season to pick up points each week and pull away from the current teams around us. 

Remember this very post today, come May I may be right. Hopefully not of course, as I cannot stand the thought of League One football yet again. It's going to get pulses racing for sure.

I was thinking over this today myself, as in; where do the points we need come from?  And will the average (45) be enough?

I did a (very positive, considering) prediction of the remaining games (based on points collected);

Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday - 0
Bristol City v Rotherham United - 3
Derby County v Bristol City - 0
Leeds United v Bristol City - 0
Bristol City v Fulham - 1
Newcastle United v Bristol City - 0
Aston Villa v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Burton Albion - 3
Bristol City v Norwich City - 1
Wigan Athletic v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town - 1
Brentford v Bristol City - 0
Preston North End v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 1
Bristol City v Queens Park Rangers - 3
Blackburn Rovers v Bristol City - 3
Bristol City v Barnsley - 1
Brighton & Hove Albion v Bristol City - 0
Bristol City v Birmingham City - 3

23 points (1.2 per game), final total = 50

Last year a utterly rancid Charlton were relegated in 22nd with 40 - I don't think any of Burton, Wigan or Blackburn are as bad as Charlton or MK Dons (39 points in 21st last season) were.

We need to start getting results, and fast, or need someone in quick to try and give them a chance to collect as many wins and draws as possible.

[Mike Hunt-Hertz]

3 minutes ago, CotswoldRed said:

He certainly does. I've always been keen to know whether malaria or cholera are amongst his favourite creations

It is actually that little known malady called "gassupportia". Thankfully it is extremely rare, and eradicated everywhere, bar a few small pockets, in foetid, swampy ground.

[The Coach]

12 minutes ago, samo II said:

I was thinking over this today myself, as in; where do the points we need come from?  And will the average (45) be enough?

I did a (very positive, considering) prediction of the remaining games (based on points collected);

Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday - 0
Bristol City v Rotherham United - 3
Derby County v Bristol City - 0
Leeds United v Bristol City - 0
Bristol City v Fulham - 1
Newcastle United v Bristol City - 0
Aston Villa v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Burton Albion - 3
Bristol City v Norwich City - 1
Wigan Athletic v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town - 1
Brentford v Bristol City - 0
Preston North End v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 1
Bristol City v Queens Park Rangers - 3
Blackburn Rovers v Bristol City - 3
Bristol City v Barnsley - 1
Brighton & Hove Albion v Bristol City - 0
Bristol City v Birmingham City - 3

23 points (1.2 per game), final total = 50

Last year a utterly rancid Charlton were relegated in 22nd with 40 - I don't think any of Burton, Wigan or Blackburn are as bad as Charlton or MK Dons (39 points in 21st last season) were.

We need to start getting results, and fast, or need someone in quick to try and give them a chance to collect as many wins and draws as possible.

Near enough what I got. I was going over it this morning. Really is not looking good for us. It's going to take a new man and a lot of work in my view to survive. 

[samo II]

4 minutes ago, Red_Wizard said:

Near enough what I got. I was going over it this morning. Really is not looking good for us. It's going to take a new man and a lot of work in my view to survive. 

The only hope is that a couple from Wigan, Blackburn and Burton imploded - but I'm not buying that.  More likely based on current form and results that one or two go on decent runs themselves, and draw us deeper in.

Looking at the fixtures this week, I get the feeling we may need to get at least three points from Wednesday and Rotherham just to keep ourselves a couple of points clear of the drop, which is depressing.

[JacobsBS3]

Long time reader, infrequent poster.

I'm concerned that if we limp past Rotherham and Johnson secures his job, we'll be in deeper trouble come mid-Mar.

Whilst I never want to see City lose I have sympathy with those willing to suffer short term pain for long term gain.

An overly simplified poll.

 

 

 

 

[Inactive user]

1 hour ago, samo II said:

I was thinking over this today myself, as in; where do the points we need come from?  And will the average (45) be enough?

I did a (very positive, considering) prediction of the remaining games (based on points collected);

Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday - 0
Bristol City v Rotherham United - 3
Derby County v Bristol City - 0
Leeds United v Bristol City - 0
Bristol City v Fulham - 1
Newcastle United v Bristol City - 0
Aston Villa v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Burton Albion - 3
Bristol City v Norwich City - 1
Wigan Athletic v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Huddersfield Town - 1
Brentford v Bristol City - 0
Preston North End v Bristol City - 1
Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 1
Bristol City v Queens Park Rangers - 3
Blackburn Rovers v Bristol City - 3
Bristol City v Barnsley - 1
Brighton & Hove Albion v Bristol City - 0
Bristol City v Birmingham City - 3

23 points (1.2 per game), final total = 50

Last year a utterly rancid Charlton were relegated in 22nd with 40 - I don't think any of Burton, Wigan or Blackburn are as bad as Charlton or MK Dons (39 points in 21st last season) were.

We need to start getting results, and fast, or need someone in quick to try and give them a chance to collect as many wins and draws as possible.

Pretty fair analysis but I'm still confident that at least three others will do worse.

[samo II]

5 minutes ago, Rednwhiterob said:

Pretty fair analysis but I'm still confident that at least three others will do worse.

Which three?

Below are the form tablea for the last 6 (left) and 10 (right) games; which of the teams doing better than us do you see collapsing?  

And Wednesday are 7th in the form table over the last 6, and 4th over the last 10, so we'll need to do something special to beat them.

For my money; I think there is defiantly one team worse than us in the shape of Rotherham, but we've shown very little over the past 20 games to prove we are better than anyone else.

[BobBobSuperBob]

1 minute ago, samo II said:

Which three?

Below are the form tablea for the last 6 (left) and 10 (right) games; which of the teams doing better than us do you see collapsing?  

And Wednesday are 7th in the form table over the last 6, and 4th over the last 10, so we'll need to do something special to beat them.

For my money; I think there is defiantly one team worse than us in the shape of Rotherham, but we've shown very little over the past 20 games to prove we are better than anyone else.

Shouldn't bother Samo

You won't get a reasoned or intelligent response !

[Inactive user]

3 minutes ago, samo II said:

Which three?

Below are the form tablea for the last 6 (left) and 10 (right) games; which of the teams doing better than us do you see collapsing?  

And Wednesday are 7th in the form table over the last 6, and 4th over the last 10, so we'll need to do something special to beat them.

For my money; I think there is defiantly one team worse than us in the shape of Rotherham, but we've shown very little over the past 20 games to prove we are better than anyone else.

We'll finish above Rotherham, Wigan, Burton and probably one or two others.

Maybe I'm just more optimistic but other analysis from a week back suggests this isn't far off.

[Inactive user]

5 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Shouldn't bother Samo

You won't get a reasoned or intelligent response !

Admittedly a couple of weeks out of date now, but this analysis is supportive that we'll stay up.

https://experimental361.com/2017/01/15/e-ratings-update-championship-14-jan-2017/

It's a reasoned and fairly intelligent response Bob. Even in you do happen to disagree with it.

[samo II]

1 minute ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Shouldn't bother Samo

You won't get a reasoned or intelligent response !

I just don't believe there are three worse teams than us in this league right now.

Yes; we undoubtably have a better squad than several teams down the bottom, and we undoubtably have the set-up (stadium, training facilities etc) to be a Championship team.

But that means nothing.

I'd argue so did MK Dons last year, but Rotherham stayed up instead.  

This year, I think Burton will prove the surprise package; part of me wonders if Clough leaves, Rowett might go back on a short term deal, help keep them up, then be a free agent with an even more improved CV - I feel Burton's form will have a fair say in where we end up, which is worrying.

[BobBobSuperBob]

Just now, Rednwhiterob said:

Admittedly a couple of weeks out of date now, but this analysis us supportive that we'll stay up.

https://experimental361.com/2017/01/15/e-ratings-update-championship-14-jan-2017/

It's a reasoned and fairly intelligent response Bob. Even in you do happen to disagree with it.

Don't think the computer has been fed with the fact we have a head coach who hasn't got a monkeys how to turn this round

 

 

Rubbish In - Rubbish out

[shelts]

A new low 

[Inactive user]

8 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Don't think the computer has been fed with the fact we have a head coach who hasn't got a monkeys how to turn this round

 

 

Rubbish In - Rubbish out

Maybe.

But I think my response was probably more "reasoned and intelligent" than yours.

[samo II]

4 minutes ago, Rednwhiterob said:

Admittedly a couple of weeks out of date now, but this analysis is supportive that we'll stay up.

https://experimental361.com/2017/01/15/e-ratings-update-championship-14-jan-2017/

It's a reasoned and fairly intelligent response Bob. Even in you do happen to disagree with it.

No offence, but as someone who's day job is analysis, that is probably some of the most bizarre speculation based on a single statistical metric I have ever seen.

How on earth you can infer what that gent has from that stats (i.e. us holding a 90% chance of survival) is ignoring crucial secondary factors, such as personnel changes.

I posted some less speculative stats earlier, laying out our performance over the last 20 games, league and cup.  They make for grim (and I feel more relevant) reading, indicating we are averaging less than a goal a game, and also shipping over two per match.  

Additionally; of those players who've scored our goals, only Paterson, Abraham and Flint start regularly, and without Abraham we'd be scoring only around every second game.

Fair play for sharing your reasoning, but I don't think that says anything that I'd trust - LJ himself at Barnsley is proof that these things are not that straight forward, but unfortunately I think he's run out of ideas and options here, and I just hope he doesn't get us relegated proving that.

[BobBobSuperBob]

2 minutes ago, Rednwhiterob said:

Maybe.

But I think my response was probably more "reasoned and intelligent" than yours.

My reasoning is 

Looking at the League table

Looking at the form table

Listening to what's actually going on

 

Pretty reasoned in my opinion

You stick with some computer data 

 

[Inactive user]

17 minutes ago, samo II said:

No offence, but as someone who's day job is analysis, that is probably some of the most bizarre speculation based on a single statistical metric I have ever seen.

How on earth you can infer what that gent has from that stats (i.e. us holding a 90% chance of survival) is ignoring crucial secondary factors, such as personnel changes.

I posted some less speculative stats earlier, laying out our performance over the last 20 games, league and cup.  They make for grim (and I feel more relevant) reading, indicating we are averaging less than a goal a game, and also shipping over two per match.  

Additionally; of those players who've scored our goals, only Paterson, Abraham and Flint start regularly, and without Abraham we'd be scoring only around every second game.

Fair play for sharing your reasoning, but I don't think that says anything that I'd trust - LJ himself at Barnsley is proof that these things are not that straight forward, but unfortunately I think he's run out of ideas and options here, and I just hope he doesn't get us relegated proving that.

Well whatever statistics you look at we need to get some points.  Couldn't agree more with your last sentence.

[ChippenhamRed]

Why is the Sheffield Wednesday game being viewed as an inconsequential "free hit"? They are a half-decent but unremarkable Championship side who we beat comfortably at home last season and nearly beat away this.

We have slipped into a mentality where a home defeat against slightly-above-average opposition is viewed as an acceptable inevitability. What a sorry state of affairs!

Johnson should have gone last week in my opinion but I wouldn't be waiting for Rotherham to define his future. I would command 3 points against Wednesday as an ultimatum. Too difficult a task? Tough luck. The investment, infrastructure and squad at this club should be achieving a midtable finish as a minimum, and midtable finishes are achieved by beating teams like Wednesday at home.

[Sparkz 76]

Anyone that voted for us to lose should be ashamed of yourselves 3 points could be the difference between championship or league 1

[samo II]

17 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Why is the Sheffield Wednesday game being viewed as an inconsequential "free hit"? They are a half-decent but unremarkable Championship side who we beat comfortably at home last season and nearly beat away this.

We have slipped into a mentality where a home defeat against slightly-above-average opposition is viewed as an acceptable inevitability. What a sorry state of affairs!

Johnson should have gone last week in my opinion but I wouldn't be waiting for Rotherham to define his future. I would command 3 points against Wednesday as an ultimatum. Too difficult a task? Tough luck. The investment, infrastructure and squad at this club should be achieving a midtable finish as a minimum, and midtable finishes are achieved by beating teams like Wednesday at home.

Don't disagree that it is a sorry state of affairs, but I think the fact we set up to 'contain' rather than beat a dire Forest team last league game indicated the mentality we've under at the moment, so viewing a side from the top half as almost unbeatable fits with that.

I honestly feel that if SL/Ashton/the board have any sense, they'll show LJ the door if we lost to Sheffield Wednesday.  We've already lost the most consecutive league games for nine seasons (as far back as I can find records for); if we lose another, that is nine in a row - the next closest is seven, a total we also managed back in our last relegation season.  It's already not a record I can imagine will be beaten for a while.

I respect those telling us to hold our nerve, and I also respect the position of SL in so much as he believes he'll make a good head coach one day; I just think this job is too much for him too soon.  The stadium and squad have been revamped to great cost, so we need to be ruthless about who we have in place to get results.  I'm gutted LJ hasn't managed to get us to kick on, but our Championship status is more important than his potential.

[Atticus]

What I want is for us to beat Rotherham and sack Lee Johnson.

That would be good.

[BRISTOL86]

55 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Why is the Sheffield Wednesday game being viewed as an inconsequential "free hit"? They are a half-decent but unremarkable Championship side who we beat comfortably at home last season and nearly beat away this.

We have slipped into a mentality where a home defeat against slightly-above-average opposition is viewed as an acceptable inevitability. What a sorry state of affairs!

Johnson should have gone last week in my opinion but I wouldn't be waiting for Rotherham to define his future. I would command 3 points against Wednesday as an ultimatum. Too difficult a task? Tough luck. The investment, infrastructure and squad at this club should be achieving a midtable finish as a minimum, and midtable finishes are achieved by beating teams like Wednesday at home.

I'd argue that losing the playoff final one season and then continuing to challenge at the right end of the table the next season constitutes more than 'slightly above average'. They're a very solid outfit. They have players all over the pitch that would walk into our team.

Completely agree that it shouldn't be seen in the same light as yesterday's game however.

I can see why people are expecting nothing but we shouldn't be giving them too much respect. 

[Inactive user]

5 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

I'd argue that losing the playoff final one season and then continuing to challenge at the right end of the table the next season constitutes more than 'slightly above average'. They're a very solid outfit. They have players all over the pitch that would walk into our team.

Completely agree that it shouldn't be seen in the same light as yesterday's game however.

I can see why people are expecting nothing but we shouldn't be giving them too much respect. 

Agree.  I'd expect to see us be competitive but won't be kicking the cat if we don't get all 3 points!