Will the goals dry up?

[JamesBCFC]

As most on here will know, I tend to be nearer the "happy clapper" end of the spectrum as far as our fans are concerned. However, I do think we are currently over achieving a bit this season.

I'm also a believer that stats can be very useful- if you know what to look for and how to use them.

 

I've attached a graph from the often referenced Experimental 3-6-1 website which has an attacking breakdown for each club.

Here is the description from the person who created the graph.

"Each graphic shows a club’s main attacking players: those who have:

1. Featured for at least a third of their total pitch minutes in the league this season, and
2. Taken an average of at least one shot per game.

The size of each player’s bubble is proportional to the percentage of possible minutes that they’ve played.

Each player’s bubble is plotted on a chart with the two axes working like this:

• On the horizontal axis we have their goal threat, based on the “expected goals” value of shots taken per 90 minutes. This is effectively a measure of the combined quality of their goalscoring chances.
• On the vertical axis we have their scoring rate, using a less abstract measure of actual number of goals scored per 90 minutes.

Both axes exclude penalties, as those can massively skew a player’s contribution away from the threat they pose from open play.

There’s a shaded “stripe” which indicates the long-term shot conversion rate of all finishers except the top and bottom 10%, so we can identify those whose performance may be unsustainable (i.e. unlikely to be repeated next season). If a player is above the stripe, they’re converting chances at a rate consistent with someone in the top 10% of finishers, and likewise a player below the line is in the worst 10%. Based on what we know about the specific player, we can therefore take a view on whether we expect their scoring rate to continue."

So what does this mean?

Flint, Brownhill, Diedhiou and Reid have all scored more than would be expected, while Pack, Paterson and O'Dowda have scored less than expected.

TL;DR we are scoring more goals than we probably should be, but unlike a few other clubs we aren't totally reliant on one striker.

Link to source.

[Dr Balls]

Not sure if this really matters tbh. We know that Bobby is having the best season of his career so far, while Diedhiou was just finding his mojo before the injury. Flint has to be one of the highest, if not the highest scoring central defender in all 4 leagues, while I am hoping Milan Djuric can "do a Matt Smith" and propel us up the table. If O'Dowda's upturn in form can also result in more goals then all the better.

And the only statistic that really matters is our league position which is looking the healthiest in 10 years. Plus we are sharing the goals around and need to keep defending like every goal conceded is a personal insult to their professional abilities. 

Keep this up and we can look forward to a really enjoyable and possibly even successful season.

[JamesBCFC]

4 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Not sure if this really matters tbh. We know that Bobby is having the best season of his career so far, while Diedhiou was just finding his mojo before the injury. Flint has to be one of the highest, if not the highest scoring central defender in all 4 leagues, while I am hoping Milan Djuric can "do a Matt Smith" and propel us up the table. If O'Dowda's upturn in form can also result in more goals then all the better.

And the only statistic that really matters is our league position which is looking the healthiest in 10 years. Plus we are sharing the goals around and need to keep defending like every goal conceded is a personal insult to their professional abilities. 

Keep this up and we can look forward to a really enjoyable and possibly even successful season.

True, but what I'm saying is that us scoring more than we should be is leading to a slightly false position.

Not saying we should be by the bottom by any stretch, and certainly not saying it is anything like the extent of Ipswich who are absolutely in a false position, but that top 4 is above this squad right now.

[Robbored]

2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

 but what I'm saying is that us scoring more than we should be is leading to a slightly false position.

You'll have to explain that Jim.

No idea what point you're trying to make.

[JamesBCFC]

5 minutes ago, Robbored said:

You'll have to explain that Jim.

No idea what point you're trying to make.

Well, Bob, we are scoring more goals than would be expected from a team based on the chances we are creating and how often those types of chances are scored.

So, as we are scoring more often than would be expected, our results are skewed as a result.

By the results getting skewed, our points total is off from what would be expected.

As a result of our points tally being higher than it "should" be, we are in a higher position.

[BCFC Rich]

2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

You'll have to explain that Jim.

No idea what point you're trying to make.

He is saying that Diedhiou, Reid, Brownhill, and Flint are all scoring more goals than would be expected for the amount of chances/opportunities etc that they get. They a very unlikely to able to sustain that for a whole season. Therefore they are likely (unless we can get them into threating positions more often) to start scoring less often. Which means our goals could dry up. Which could well lead to less positive results. 

However, I think we have goals in players just coming back and not on this list - Djuric and Taylor. And you would hope players like COD will start to score a few more. Add to that there are only 7 players on the chart and I think I read we have had something like 15/16 different scorers this season and I think we'll be ok.

Really interesting though, thanks, James.

[JamesBCFC]

3 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

He is saying that Diedhiou, Reid, Brownhill, and Flint are all scoring more goals than would be expected for the amount of chances/opportunities etc that they get. They a very unlikely to able to sustain that for a whole season. Therefore they are likely (unless we can get them into threating positions more often) to start scoring less often. Which means our goals could dry up. Which could well lead to less positive results. 

However, I think we have goals in players just coming back and not on this list - Djuric and Taylor. And you would hope players like COD will start to score a few more. Add to that there are only 7 players on the chart and I think I read we have had something like 15/16 different scorers this season and I think we'll be ok.

Really interesting though, thanks, James.

Very well summised.

Not every player is on there, think that part is based on playing time, but players like Djuric and Taylor will probably make it onto the updated charts in a couple of months.

[Shtanley]

I think COD and Milan will start to score more goals than we’d expect. COD especially, not having Fam around will impact us big time but I think we can continue at our current rate of goalscoring. Pisano coming back could help us too. 

[cidered abroad]

9 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Well, Bob, we are scoring more goals than would be expected from a team based on the chances we are creating and how often those types of chances are scored.

So, as we are scoring more often than would be expected, our results are skewed as a result.

By the results getting skewed, our points total is off from what would be expected.

As a result of our points tally being higher than it "should" be, we are in a higher position.

Aren't we doing well then! 

[Lanterne Rouge]

13 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Well, Bob, we are scoring more goals than would be expected from a team based on the chances we are creating and how often those types of chances are scored.

So, as we are scoring more often than would be expected, our results are skewed as a result.

By the results getting skewed, our points total is off from what would be expected.

As a result of our points tally being higher than it "should" be, we are in a higher position.

See what you did there, nice one

[Major Isewater]

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

 

[wendyredredrobin]

Where does all this data come from nowadays? Are the players wearing gps trackers or something?

[Robbored]

18 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Well, Bob, we are scoring more goals than would be expected from a team based on the chances we are creating and how often those types of chances are scored.

So, as we are scoring more often than would be expected, our results are skewed as a result.

By the results getting skewed, our points total is off from what would be expected.

As a result of our points tally being higher than it "should" be, we are in a higher position.

Mumbo jumbo.......

We are where are because of points we've accumulated and the league table doesn't lie.

Maybe keeping things simple isn't your forte.

[Robbored]

20 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

He is saying that Diedhiou, Reid, Brownhill, and Flint are all scoring more goals than would be expected for the amount of chances/opportunities etc that they get. They a very unlikely to able to sustain that for a whole season. Therefore they are likely (unless we can get them into threating positions more often) to start scoring less often. Which means our goals could dry up. Which could well lead to less positive results. 

Really interesting though, thanks, James.

Jeez........................

.

[Roger Red Hat]

22 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Well, Bob, we are scoring more goals than would be expected from a team based on the chances we are creating and how often those types of chances are scored.

So, as we are scoring more often than would be expected, our results are skewed as a result.

By the results getting skewed, our points total is off from what would be expected.

As a result of our points tally being higher than it "should" be, we are in a higher position.

Anybody else got an ice cream headache after reading that? 

I think we are where we are because we're there...err..

[JamesBCFC]

4 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Mumbo jumbo.......

We are where are because of points we've accumulated and the league table doesn't lie.

Maybe keeping things simple isn't your forte.

At the end of the season it doesnt.

At the early stages it absolutely can.

Grasping very simple concepts clearly is beyond you.

[BigTone]

26 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Well, Bob, we are scoring more goals than would be expected from a team based on the chances we are creating and how often those types of chances are scored.

So, as we are scoring more often than would be expected, our results are skewed as a result.

By the results getting skewed, our points total is off from what would be expected.

As a result of our points tally being higher than it "should" be, we are in a higher position.

Correct me if I am wrong but isn'the point of the game to score goals? 

[Robbored]

1 minute ago, JamesBCFC said:

At the end of the season it doesnt.

At the early stages it absolutely can.

Grasping very simple concepts clearly is beyond you.

I think your overcomplicating a very simple formula.

Psuedointellectual mumbo jumbo. 

[JamesBCFC]

4 minutes ago, BigTone said:

Correct me if I am wrong but isn'the point of the game to score goals? 

Where has anyone suggested otherwise?

[JamesBCFC]

2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

I think your overcomplicating a very simple formula.

Psuedointellectual mumbo jumbo. 

I think you're deliberately being a bit of a knob, but that's standard from you.

[Shtanley]

Brentford are presumably the most interesting team to look at when it comes to all this. 

[spudski]

1 minute ago, JamesBCFC said:

I think you're deliberately being a bit of a knob, but that's standard from you.

Some people turn all 'borish' and anti something, when they don't understand something...it's a way of making themselves feel better ;-)

[Guest]

What has me excited about the season is we have different players hitting pockets of form; it's allowing us not to be over reliant on one player.  

For instance when Reid went a couple without scoring Flint stepped up, Marlon has been off pace and Brownhill stepped up, COD and JP showing purple patches at different stages. It's all complimenting the team very well. Our danger man is unpredictable, if it stays that way we will keep scoring. 

[archie andrews]

3 minutes ago, Shtanley said:

Brentford are presumably the most interesting team to look at when it comes to all this. 

still think Brentford can make top 6

[ExiledAjax]

It’s a good stat from E361, and it is one of the trickier ones to understand, but his stuff is good. Last season his predictions were more accurate than the average bookies.

One thing we can’t really account for is Djuric as his data isn’t complete. If he can compensate for Reid or Diedhiou dropping off (if they do that is) then we may maintain this form.

Some teams confound the stats each year - Reading last season were an anomaly, as were Ipswich early in this one. Yes @Shtanley Brentford have some odd stats this season.

[downendcity]

I kept reading that without Tammy's goals we would be doomed this season.

[JamesBCFC]

9 minutes ago, Shtanley said:

Brentford are presumably the most interesting team to look at when it comes to all this. 

Absolutely.

They have played well in many games this season.

Ipswich are the opposite to Brentford.

[spudski]

11 minutes ago, archie andrews said:

still think Brentford can make top 6

I said this a couple weeks ago and got shot down in flames. I still reckon they will.

[Meh]

This is only one stat though - what we do now compared to last year (in general) is concede less.

Does it matter if the goals are less frequent if we still convert occasionally and keep clean sheets? Nobody will care about the size of the goal difference if we continue to get points on the board.

I suppose what I’m saying is surely only one stat cannot determine if a team is over-performing? 

 

[B1ackbird]

38 minutes ago, BigTone said:

Correct me if I am wrong but isn'the point of the game to score goals? 

No, according to the greatest football brain of our times (SOD) you have to pass the ball sideways in your own half 106 times, then lump it 40 yards to Warwick Davis...