Have we slipped into the relegation spots?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Would also add on the flipside of the doom and gloom- only one side has won at Brentford so far this season- admittedly vs ten men for a good chunk of the 2nd half. Read elsewhere it's their only home loss since March so that's cautious optimism.

No prizes for guessing the side...a side we won at (Brentford) with the 5th best home record so far. Also a Blackburn who have only conceded 8 goals in their other 8 away games, we put 4 past. No it's not good enough currently, but there have been bright spots too- and more importantly enough (IMO) to convince me we won't go down. Need to get at least 4 points from the Ipswich and Millwall- preferably 6, but minimum 4, though.

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

I strive for balance and generally look for the positives, but in no way did we deserve a draw on Saturday. It was a festering turd of a performance and we deserved everything we got.

Saturday was so bad, it was a turning point for many of us.

I don’t think the negativity is particularly related to the league position at the moment; as you say, we’re mid-table. It’s rather the stagnation in the team, the unentertaining football, the inconsistency of our performances, the sense that we’re no longer progressing forwards, and that Johnson is not showing any signs of being able to take us any further than he already has.

I don’t think that’s fair. Of course there are silly extremes, but plenty of us try to offer considered and balanced views.

Well said

2 hours ago, MichaelRobartes said:

The table doesn't look too bad for us to be fair, but we've been playing puke football for a while now. I think a fair amount of people are as annoyed with that as they are with the results.

Well said

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Can't agree about Saturday @reddogkev we were in no way good enough to get a point IMO.

Reading away, you could make a case for a point and Stoke at home definitely for a draw at worst, if not for Butland and the woodwork- don't think we have necessarily got the rub of the green at times this season though either- with better finishing I think we would have perhaps between 2-4 more points over the course of the season. Did we merit a loss to Sheffield Wednesday for example, also Wigan though we were terrible we conceded from their only shot on target which suggests that both sides were little good and a point apiece maybe fairer.

That said, the tactics have been poor, the team selections at times random, the  recruitment hit and miss, probably man management that isn't great...

I looked back at our 17 league games minus the two Sheffield Games and reckoned we had 4-6 points more than we “deserved”...very subjective. 

My view of each game where I thought result should’ve been different. Lots if you will disagree, that’s fine.

QPR - 1pt (-2)

WBA - 1pt (-1 running total)

Rotherham - 0pts (-2 running total)

Brentford - 1pt (-4 running total)

Hull City - 1pt (-6 running total)

Stoke City - 1pt (-5 running total)

So I reckon we won 3 that could easily have been draws.  Lost two where we deserved a draw  Drew one we should’ve lost.

But of course it’s meaningless against actual results, but don’t things even out over 46 games so ultimately we will end up having points that kinda reflect our performances???? 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Well said

Well said

I looked back at our 17 league games minus the two Sheffield Games and reckoned we had 4-6 points more than we “deserved”...very subjective. 

My view of each game where I thought result should’ve been different. Lots if you will disagree, that’s fine.

QPR - 1pt (-2)

WBA - 1pt (-1 running total)

Rotherham - 0pts (-2 running total)

Brentford - 1pt (-4 running total)

Hull City - 1pt (-6 running total)

Stoke City - 1pt (-5 running total)

So I reckon we won 3 that could easily have been draws.  Lost two where we deserved a draw  Drew one we should’ve lost.

But of course it’s meaningless against actual results, but don’t things even out over 46 games so ultimately we will end up having points that kinda reflect our performances???? 

 

You only thought we merited a point at Bolton? We were fairly dominant IIRC in a lot of aspects, Wigan because neither side was high calibre, I saw as a draw potentially, then again Rotherham away we very easily could/should have lost- those 2 cancel out in a sense. Sheffield Wednesday unsure they were better than us- draw perhaps but if Kelly scores in the first 15 as he could/should have game changes completely. Draw perhaps. Stoke I think if they have an average keeper, good chance we win that one- Butland is a cut above however.

Agree also about Brentford and draw being most fair/likely, Hull I dunno- we definitely were on top 2nd half and 1-0 felt about right to me.

Over a season it should even out, but it doesn't always- take Stam's Reading because their underlying numbers FWIW were indicative of a place well below their playoff position- sometimes teams can over perform over long periods be they due to exceptionally clinical strikers or a particularly stout defence. Likewise conceding too many big chances or wasting a lot in front of goal can hinder teams even over a season.

[Davefevs]

@Mr Popodopolous yeah, it’s very subjective on my part.

[BS4 on Tour...]

11 hours ago, Shtanley said:

OTIB is no place for sensible thoughts Kev

Sensible?! Kev started a thread last season ‘guaranteeing that we’d win automatic promotion’ - and now you think he’s sensible?!

[JamesBCFC]

11 hours ago, phantom said:

Simple reply - it points to how long we have been in freefall, the only reason we are not worse off yet is we are not that far into this season yet

Use the 2018 form as an indicator of what is to come - as we all know that EVERY season LJ has been a manager he has had at LEAST one of these long periods of time where he loses his way and his teams are nothing short of relegation fodder 

Half of 2018s form, and indeed the most relevant part, has been solidly mid table form.

That is hardly freefall.

[CityCiderEd]

People say that tables don't lie and we currently sit half way and seemingly comfortable (according to some). Tables only don't lie at the end of the season not now but when the last ball is kicked. We are currently slipping nearer to the bottom six than we are to the top six and at the moment I really feel we are going to be dragged into a scrap at the bottom. I hope I'm wrong and we turn it around but on current form we are not looking good.

[BS4 on Tour...]

27 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Half of 2018s form, and indeed the most relevant part, has been solidly mid table form.

That is hardly freefall.

Why divide the form this year in half and declare one half of it ‘the most relevant’? I always think looking at calendar years rather than seasons is quite illuminating...

[JamesBCFC]

7 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Why divide the form this year in half and declare one half of it ‘the most relevant’? I always think looking at calendar years rather than seasons is quite illuminating...

I haven't divided it, the league seasons have. I said half because, at a guess, there's been a roughly equal amount of games in 2018 so far on either side of the summer break.

This seasons form is more relevant than last seasons because it is the form with the squad that we currently have.

Does last seasons form have some relevance? Perhaps, but it has absolutely no bearing on where we are in the table now.

This seasons form is vastly more relevant because it is this seasons form that determines what position we are in this season.

[BS4 on Tour...]

2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

I haven't divided it, the league seasons have. I said half because, at a guess, there's been a roughly equal amount of games in 2018 so far on either side of the summer break.

This seasons form is more relevant than last seasons because it is the form with the squad that we currently have.

Does last seasons form have some relevance? Perhaps, but it has absolutely no bearing on where we are in the table now.

This seasons form is vastly more relevant because it is this seasons form that determines what position we are in this season.

Fair enough, cheers for the response James....

[cidered abroad]

29 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

I haven't divided it, the league seasons have. I said half because, at a guess, there's been a roughly equal amount of games in 2018 so far on either side of the summer break.

This seasons form is more relevant than last seasons because it is the form with the squad that we currently have.

Does last seasons form have some relevance? Perhaps, but it has absolutely no bearing on where we are in the table now.

This seasons form is vastly more relevant because it is this seasons form that determines what position we are in this season.

Of course last seasons final four months form is relevant.

Different players but the same old abject inconsistentcy. 

Common denominator is Lee Johnson.

You can continue burying your head in the Weston on the Mud quagmire, but if you could open your eyes, you would see the tide ebbing and dragging us into the relegation more.

[RumRed]

48 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

I haven't divided it, the league seasons have. I said half because, at a guess, there's been a roughly equal amount of games in 2018 so far on either side of the summer break.

This seasons form is more relevant than last seasons because it is the form with the squad that we currently have.

Does last seasons form have some relevance? Perhaps, but it has absolutely no bearing on where we are in the table now.

This seasons form is vastly more relevant because it is this seasons form that determines what position we are in this season.

It’s a pattern of performance.  For example HL can’t just produce fund results from April 6th 2018 as it’s the new financial year. 

If you want to be nice take the performance figures from after the 3rd window when the squad should have been his own.  How does that stack up?

(I don’t know the answer but would be interesting)

 

[JamesBCFC]

6 minutes ago, RumRed said:

It’s a pattern of performance.  For example HL can’t just produce fund results from April 6th 2018 as it’s the new financial year. 

If you want to be nice take the performance figures from after the 3rd window when the squad should have been his own.  How does that stack up?

(I don’t know the answer but would be interesting)

 

I don't know the answer, but would hazard a guess at midtable.

His third window was the January of his original awful run with us, which was already about 2 months old.

End of that window, and start of what we are looking at for your question, then was from 1st of February 2017, so you'd have the tail end of the bad run, and a handful of games that were midtable form. Plus last season which was half a season at (overall) top 2 form (based on our position for the Wolves game) and half a season of struggling bottom half side (but not relegation form, as there were 4-5 teams who were worse than us over the same time frame). That balamced out as a top half, mid-table side (11th wasn't it?).

Plus this season, which has been firmly mid table form.

[BobBobSuperBob]

25 minutes ago, RumRed said:

It’s a pattern of performance.  For example HL can’t just produce fund results from April 6th 2018 as it’s the new financial year. 

If you want to be nice take the performance figures from after the 3rd window when the squad should have been his own.  How does that stack up?

(I don’t know the answer but would be interesting)

 

Pre third window

62 games

22 wins

12 draws

28 defeats

Total points 78

1.25 pts per game

 

Win percentage % 35.48

 

Post third window

Played  63

W  23

D  20

L.  20

89 points

1.4 pts per game

Win percentage %36.5

 

 

 

Since Jan 1st

38 games

10 wins

12 draws

16 defeats

Total points 42

1.105 pts per game

Win percentage % 26.3

[Hampshire reds]

not yet. but with current form we will soon be. sadly. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

@cidered abroad

My main point there was while we underperformed in a number of games, we have also got results we didn't think that likely perhaps- Brentford away, who expected that? Great result. Blackburn are a compact side, yet we put them to the sword- a win not entirely unexpected but the 2nd half charge for 4-1 again more than I thought likely. Seems to be a feature of a side in and around midtable to me.

[Dullmoan Tone]

I think one of the major reasons is the fans, who were told to be patient, were told it was about progression. There is no evidence of this this calendar year.

I'm surprised no-one else has said, but we have scored once in the last 3 home games; frankly I don't give two toots about progression but we do deserve entertainment.

Save for a somewhat lucky goal against Sheffield Utd and a late one against a poor Hull, our home form is mostly witless, boring and predictable.

[Natchfever]

20 hours ago, JBFC II said:

So you're also including last season then? 

If we take when our form really started to dip, the Aston Villa game, only 4 players started that game and also started against Preston, to compare the two is pointless really. 

Instead of looking to a year ago, I personally think that we are much better of at looking to this season where our form has been mid table. 

What Sir Leigh said. Our only blip over the past 11 months or so is our brief good spell earlier  this season.

Normal service has now resumed unfortunately.

[Bar BS3]

9 hours ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

 

 

Since Jan 1st

38 games

10 wins

12 draws

16 defeats

Total points 42

1.105 pts per game

Win percentage % 26.3

So, with 8 games left to make up “a season” during 2018, we’ve already got enough points to have avoided relegation at the end of last season’s final table. 

Despite many not being happy with our 2018 form (understandably, in parts) the cries of “relegation form” are not accurate. Fact. 

I agree that we need improvement on what we’ve had during 2018, but it does suggest a certain overreaction from some on here. 

[Bristol is red]

56 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

So, with 8 games left to make up “a season” during 2018, we’ve already got enough points to have avoided relegation at the end of last season’s final table. 

Despite many not being happy with our 2018 form (understandably, in parts) the cries of “relegation form” are not accurate. Fact. 

I agree that we need improvement on what we’ve had during 2018, but it does suggest a certain overreaction from some on here. 

That first paragraph is incredibly selective to only use last seasons relegation spots as a bar-o-meter and say it's not relegation form.  Generally speaking you can be relegated from anywhere between 41-55 points. In the 12/13 (55 points needed for survival) and 16/17 seasons 1.1 ppg = 50 points which would have seen us relegated 2 out of the last 6 seasons.

I'd beg to differ that it is relegation form as it has been enough to get a team relegated in recent seasons.

 

[Bar BS3]

48 minutes ago, Bristol is red said:

That first paragraph is incredibly selective to only use last seasons relegation spots as a bar-o-meter and say it's not relegation form.  Generally speaking you can be relegated from anywhere between 41-55 points. In the 12/13 (55 points needed for survival) and 16/17 seasons 1.1 ppg = 50 points which would have seen us relegated 2 out of the last 6 seasons.

I'd beg to differ that it is relegation form as it has been enough to get a team relegated in recent seasons.

 

I think you are being a little pedantic there and I can’t see how comparing THIS years form, with THIS years relegation requirements, is completely skewing anything. 

I’m fully aware that teams need more than 41 points to stay up in other seasons. We stayed up in those seasons under LJ too. 

I’m not saying that we should aspire to just stay up, I’m just demonstrating how those that are saying that 2018 has been a disaster and would spell certain relegation, are wrong. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

I think one of the major reasons is the fans, who were told to be patient, were told it was about progression. There is no evidence of this this calendar year.

I'm surprised no-one else has said, but we have scored once in the last 3 home games; frankly I don't give two toots about progression but we do deserve entertainment.

Save for a somewhat lucky goal against Sheffield Utd and a late one against a poor Hull, our home form is mostly witless, boring and predictable.

Progression in what sense- League position? Was never likely tbh, the clubs (for that, perhaps read SL's) public aspirations were somewhat out of kilter. Or maybe setting LJ up to fail and save on a years compensation perhaps- as in 'These are your targets for the year, if you don't achieve it then it is a failure and you're gone'. Not uncommon in business though appreciate is unlikely here...

Stats can be skewed in many ways- one goal in 3 games is bad, but arguably our finishing should have yielded more goals. Vs Stoke for example not a bad 2nd half at all, except for a mix of finishing and Butland's excellence.

Preston though, we got what we deserved- nothing at all.

You mention Hull and they are poor, yet how many did WBA score against them, Derby, Middlesbrough or Leeds for that matter? They maybe poor but they are also awkward to play against, much like Wigan away- another awkward side to play or score against.

In terms of relegation, the last 5 seasons has seen the team in 3rd from bottom achieve the following:

44 points, 41 points, 40 points, 51 points and 41 points respectively. Can't see the relegation as such a big concern, simply because of sides either who are poor or have limited resources- Hull, Bolton, Millwall, Ipswich, Rotherham,  Reading, maybe Sheffield Wednesday and Wigan will also slip into danger. Preston maybe too- then again QPR and Birmingham escaped trouble well and truly so far and Preston look on an upward trajectory.

[Red-Robbo]

On 14/11/2018 at 10:23, reddogkev said:

I only ask as the mood on here is as low as I can recall.  All doom and gloom, only perked up by the Major's decent comedy (thanks Major, I used to bloody love Reginald Perry and often thought of heading to W.S.M and just leaving a pile of my clothes next to the dirty water).

It is depressing reading.  Sounds like we are bottom of the table, 5 points adrift. 

Is anybody still happy that City are competing in the Championship?  And yes, believe it or not, we are still competing.  Even the poor result on Saturday (for me, probably not for you) should have been a draw.  We would have beat Stoke a few weeks backs had Butland not decided to play like Superman ...

The negativity is enough to drive a man to tears!

 

It's Reginald Perrin, not Perry...

 

 

... and Bristol City are Sunshine Desserts 

[Major Isewater]

22 hours ago, JBFC II said:

So you're also including last season then? 

If we take when our form really started to dip, the Aston Villa game, only 4 players started that game and also started against Preston, to compare the two is pointless really. 

Instead of looking to a year ago, I personally think that we are much better of at looking to this season where our form has been mid table. 

There is however a constant which does bear comparison .

[Major Isewater]

6 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

It's Reginald Perrin, not Perry...

 

 

... and Bristol City are Sunshine Desserts 

Great .

[Red-Robbo]

5 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

Great .

Christmas 2017:

SL: "I didn't get where I am today by spending money in January to consolidate an already strong position and make promotion a genuine possibility!"

LJ: "Great!"

MA: "Super!"

[Mike Hunt-Hertz]

2 hours ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

It's Reginald Perrin, not Perry...

 

 

... and Bristol City are Sunshine Desserts 

We do seem to have a few puddings.

[Dullmoan Tone]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Progression in what sense- League position? Was never likely tbh, the clubs (for that, perhaps read SL's) public aspirations were somewhat out of kilter. Or maybe setting LJ up to fail and save on a years compensation perhaps- as in 'These are your targets for the year, if you don't achieve it then it is a failure and you're gone'. Not uncommon in business though appreciate is unlikely here...

Stats can be skewed in many ways- one goal in 3 games is bad, but arguably our finishing should have yielded more goals. Vs Stoke for example not a bad 2nd half at all, except for a mix of finishing and Butland's excellence.

Preston though, we got what we deserved- nothing at all.

You mention Hull and they are poor, yet how many did WBA score against them, Derby, Middlesbrough or Leeds for that matter? They maybe poor but they are also awkward to play against, much like Wigan away- another awkward side to play or score against.

In terms of relegation, the last 5 seasons has seen the team in 3rd from bottom achieve the following:

44 points, 41 points, 40 points, 51 points and 41 points respectively. Can't see the relegation as such a big concern, simply because of sides either who are poor or have limited resources- Hull, Bolton, Millwall, Ipswich, Rotherham,  Reading, maybe Sheffield Wednesday and Wigan will also slip into danger. Preston maybe too- then again QPR and Birmingham escaped trouble well and truly so far and Preston look on an upward trajectory.

To answer your first question - progression for me would be beating the teams at the foot of the table (or at least playing well). 

I appreciate we will never expect to beat the "top" teams and have no right to do so, but the teams in the bottom 6 are mostly there for a reason and season after season we simply struggle to get a result. In all honesty, I wouldn't mind this if we were entertaining, but we are not and our shots on target, goals scored etc (esp at home all calendar year) back this up.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

To answer your first question - progression for me would be beating the teams at the foot of the table (or at least playing well). 

I appreciate we will never expect to beat the "top" teams and have no right to do so, but the teams in the bottom 6 are mostly there for a reason and season after season we simply struggle to get a result. In all honesty, I wouldn't mind this if we were entertaining, but we are not and our shots on target, goals scored etc (esp at home all calendar year) back this up.

Tbh our goals and shots have a disconnect- takes us about 13 shots to score a goal apparently, draw your own conclusions from that?

Yeah fair point about beating the bottom sides, though I would add Rotherham and home losses this season, only 1 in 8 games so far, so a draw there not such an unexpected result- Derby and Swansea both lost there.

The Preston run is very frustrating, they seem to be our bogey team- our kryptonite- they usually aren't down the bottom anyway (usually midtable or above) but even that notwithstanding our performance Saturday was unacceptable.

Still maintain with better- by which I mean average- finishing we would have some better results..nothing earth shatterimg but s couple of pts better maybe.

My concerns about progress (or lack of) are about tactics and decline of players after arriving- LJ definitely has room for improvement and no mistake.

[shelts]

Totally agree it’s not all gloom and doom . The footballs dreadful though