City release accounts - Ouch!

[Davefevs]

56 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

I wonder if the fans who want us to change Manager every 6 months will give it a rest now? Pearson is here for the long haul and if you don’t like it don’t buy a ticket - that’s where we are. By the way, if you don’t like it ask yourself how many decent managers out there would touch us with a barge pole. Answer honestly………then the penny might drop.

I guess with a reasonable appreciation of the financial situation over a period of time, it’s why I have given Nige more slack than many on here.  I realised his hands were tied.  I’m still a bit disappointed with some of the performances on the pitch, but I think I got my head around that the squad isn’t that great.  I liked what I heard from Nige from his early days as temporary manager, in that he was treating it as if he was here for the duration and planning in the same vain.  I think SL has got a proper “football man” in Nige at long last.  Nige will spot the bluffers, and although I’m sure he doesn’t get into the nitty gritty of the accounts he got the picture and got it quickly.

People bemoaning him not bringing in a striker (when he said he wanted one) now know why.  He’s re-iterated this in the media interview yesterday.  Managing expectations re loans and saying they’re either unproven or more expensive than what we have.  As you say, anyone coming in last season and asking the right questions and getting honest answers would probably give us a swerve!

I think Nige sees this as his last job in football, a chance to “do a Leicester”, or at least set us on the right path.

If people like myself and others on this forum could see the financial situation looming, I’m pretty sure Mark Ashton could too….and he couldn’t wait to plan his escape route, whilst spinning out the rose-tinted stuff to SL.  It’s criminal really!

53 minutes ago, Red Army 75 said:

IMO we are lucky to have NP in charge of us at the moment . And refreshing to hear him talk so honestly about our situation and manage fan expectations 

Yep, boring old Nige….I like him.

35 minutes ago, The Bard said:

100% agree,  We are up shit creek but we have a paddle in that the person in charge is completely realistic and has the skillset to see us through the 2 to 3 years it is going to take to reset the club to be a functioning, well run Championship club.  Also happy that the CEO gets on with his job rather than using the role for his own ends.  

Think Nige would’ve preferred Adrian Bevington, but in Gould he has someone who will focus on the right things and not meddle in areas he isn’t expert in.  The set-up probably needs a refresh in the overall recruitment set-up (Scouts, etc) but we can tick over this season and reflect on what is needed in the summer.

[ExiledAjax]

12 minutes ago, Pezo said:

I find fans on boards interesting, all I see from fans is we should buy more players, speculate to accumulate, get a striker ( the most expensive position and we already have one but he's not scoring). When it falls apart the fans say why did that happen - we shouldn't have wasted money on XYZ.

Also haven't we already got a fan on the board in JL, that's worked out well.

The Fan led review does not recommend that a 'fan director' be appointed to the board. Instead it recommends a shadow board. Transfers would not be one of the things that the shadow board would be consulted on, but they would be expected to be informed of "the club’s strategic vision and objectives and the short, medium and long-term business plans", which I would expect to include a broad overview of transfer strategy.

Edit: Just to add that I don't think that JL should be on any of the boards of the four key Bristol City companies.

Edited December 29, 2021 by ExiledAjax

[frenchred]

1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

You know as well as I do that the next time we’re defeated(I.e tomorrow) there’ll be a “Pearson Out” thread. And I can bet on who starts it too!

Can I start one tonight because my god he's been shite!

[lenred]

1 hour ago, Numero Uno said:

I wonder if the fans who want us to change Manager every 6 months will give it a rest now? Pearson is here for the long haul and if you don’t like it don’t buy a ticket - that’s where we are. By the way, if you don’t like it ask yourself how many decent managers out there would touch us with a barge pole. Answer honestly………then the penny might drop.

Not sure a set of accounts will make much difference to the NP out brigade as anyone with half a brain has known we’re in deep for a good while now. 

[BigAl&Toby]

6 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

Judging by some of the keyboard warrior comments on this thread yes, it's easy. It's just that they would rather give someone who has actually done it, the benefit of their hindsight on how he should have spent it.

Ouch.

Nothing keyboard warrior from me. I just do not accept that he can be so successful in one aspect of his life and so utterly ******* clueless in another.

Maybe he doesn’t have an ulterior motive. Maybe he is a modest philanthropist. Maybe he genuinely thinks he’s doing a great job. Maybe he thinks he’s leaving a legacy that everyone will remember him by.

I happen not to think that. How can he **** it up so massively? And for what it’s worth I’ve met him and others who have met him professionally. 

He’s no fool. How can he be? He’s worth a fortune. But then if you know different and think he’s doing a great job then we’ll have to happily disagree.

[Pezo]

3 minutes ago, BigAl&Toby said:

Ouch.

Nothing keyboard warrior from me. I just do not accept that he can be so successful in one aspect of his life and so utterly ******* clueless in another.

Maybe he doesn’t have an ulterior motive. Maybe he is a modest philanthropist. Maybe he genuinely thinks he’s doing a great job. Maybe he thinks he’s leaving a legacy that everyone will remember him by.

I happen not to think that. How can he **** it up so massively? And for what it’s worth I’ve met him and others who have met him professionally. 

He’s no fool. How can he be? He’s worth a fortune. But then if you know different and think he’s doing a great job then we’ll have to happily disagree.

I don't think any thinks he's doing a great job, he isn't doing any job, he is trying to enable other people to do a great job which they aren't for which he is picking up the tab. It could be worse he could be not picking up the tab.

[chinapig]

1 hour ago, Tin Soldier said:

 GT will get the chance to interview him at some stage for sure. 

He will but will even he be prepared to ask why he let Ashton run amok? And if he does ask will he get an honest answer? Or will Steve just repeat that it is his club and he'll do what he pleases?

[eardun]

Presumably the finances also came into the decision regarding the removal of  both Simpson and Downing; two more off the future wage bill. 

[cidered abroad]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

If you look at my pic from the earlier post, you’ll see that this season is the last season we included the profit from 18/19.  So when those accounts come out next year, we will from that point be reporting FFP in a cycle from 19/20 (50%), 20/21 (50% the accounts just published), 21/22 (this season) and 22//23 (next season).

We have already cut wages.

We have already cut amortisation…and this will continue to get lower.

We have stopped buying players for stupid fees / wages and then not playing them.

Player sales is the hard bit in this market

@DavefevsWWould be grateful for clarification of above.

The profit in 18/19 was what? Why only 50%? And what was the profit?

What was loss for FFP in 19/20? Also at 50%?

What will be the actual loss used for 20/21? £38 million or a lesser figure because of Covid?

Sorry to appear dense. I did get Maths O level but that was 63 years ago! (More a cunning linguist as I speak English, French, Portuguese & German)

[Lanterne Rouge]

Would I be correct in thinking that:

We are not in danger of failing FFP this season?

We could be in danger of it next season if we don`t cut our cloth severely?

We are a long way from going into admin?

Is that about the gist of it?

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

@DavefevsWWould be grateful for clarification of above.

The profit in 18/19 was what?

£11.9m

Why only 50%?

no, 18/19 profit counted in full.

And what was the profit?

see above.

What was loss for FFP in 19/20? Also at 50%?

£9.1m loss (50% - £4.6m rounded).  It’s 19/20 and 20/21 that are 50% not 18/19…thankfully!

What will be the actual loss used for 20/21? £38 million or a lesser figure because of Covid?

For FFP it will be something less.  Let’s say Covid allowances are £14m, then our losses will be £24m (£12m 50%)

Sorry to appear dense. I did get Maths O level but that was 63 years ago! (More a cunning linguist as I speak English, French, Portuguese & German)

Here’s my pic again.

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

For FFP it will be something less.  Let’s say Covid allowances are £14m, then our losses will be £24m (£12m 50%)

These 'covid allowances' are yet to be announced I assume? Is it that the EFL wants clubs to publish honest accounts that can then be retroactively considered? If they announced what would be 'covid deductible' now then you'd just get clubs shoehorning everything into that classification so that it was deductible.

Presumably we must wait for most accounts to be published before we know the full allowance or categories of alllowance?

[Hxj]

5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

These 'covid allowances' are yet to be announced I assume?

Nope - they are unique for each club,

The Regulations state:

"1.6          COVID-19 Costs means lost revenues and/or exceptional costs incurred by a Club that are directly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic and that are identified and calculated in accordance with such guidance as issued by the Board;"

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 hours ago, BigAl&Toby said:

I’ve had the “privilege” of spending time with holders of fixed charges, and of enforcing them.

If you have one then you’re in a relatively secure position. And in the Messiah’s position?

He’s the lender. He’s created the mirage of a football/rugby/basketball club alongside a venue that hosts anything and everything from Covid vaccinations to the Killers.

He seems to have willingly overseen a loss making business lurch from loss to loss. He oversaw the appointment of people who were frankly inept, and out of their depth.

Compare that to the way he must’ve seemingly developed HL. From getting excited over spreadsheets and investments in his bedroom to a shiny glass office where there were once railway sidings.

Chalk and cheese. 

And why? Does he want to be the modern day equivalent of the philanthropic John James? Or is his more Merchant Venturers? Or is he hell bent on making us proud.

One thing is for certain. Whatever he’s done, doing or will do Steve, Mrs Steve and Steve Jnr won’t be stood amongst the faithful at the next away game.

Neither will they be out of pocket. Wonder how the value of Ashton Vale is doing these days…….

Okay there's no doubt that fixed charge holders have a great deal of security as far as their position goes- nor do I intend to question your expertise or experience.

Since this arose IIRC in the 2019/20 accounts, yes he is the lender. Floating charge is good, Fixed Charge even better.

Let's be fair the Championship is a money pit- it is a loss making League in the main, even our sole profit was brought about through £38m in Profit on Player disposal (2018/19)- could we have been run better? Certainly. Is it possible to compete at the right end of this League and consistently turn a profit? I don't think so. I believe that Kieran Maguire said it was the biggest loss making League in Europe- we often hear of wages exceeding 100% of turnover...even the financial safety rules aren't all that safe, £39m losses in 3 years plus allowable costs to show on the P&L!? Higher if in PL for a year or 2 before.

Anyway yeah back to your expertise- am interested in this stuff.

Am I right in thinking that default on the loan and the stadium would revert verbatim- lock, stock and barrel- to Pula. Or is it the case e.g. that if a default occurs then SL can bump up the rent payments big time as it reverts to Pula directly.

Additionally, I notice that the Interest Payments are steadily bumping up- some of it will be Bank Overdraft, some related to HP (Hire and Purchase)- but I believe that a good chunk will be back to SL/Pula- whoever.

[ExiledAjax]

3 minutes ago, Hxj said:

such guidance as issued by the Board

Thanks - and has this guidance been issued? I can't see it on the EFL website and presume it isn't the 'Guidance Notes' within the text of the Regulations.

[Mr Popodopolous]

20 hours ago, !james said:

https://dcfcfans.uk/topic/38870-bristol-city-next-to-fail-p-and-s/#comments

Crikey @Mr Popodopolousgets about! Why on earth does every Derby fan on there hate him?! 

Ha to be fair, it's long running. I said some stuff I shouldn't in the last 2 years and a half. Some of which I regret but some of it was fighting fire with fire.

OTOH, some of them are very thin skinned indeed. Strong sense of entitlement and let's be fair nobody likes to admit that in fact they were incorrect, that their faith was misplaced. That they were had basically.

It's not just me btw...other unpopular individuals on there include but I doubt exceed mine...

1. Matt Hughes- They certainly didn't like him. He got ridiculed significantly for the -21 forecasts, he was in a roundabout way correct. Not 100% of course...
2. Kieran Maguire- They seem or some of them seem to think he has it in for Derby! As if.
3. Mr. Nixon aka Reluctantnicko- Mixed views but a level of scepticism when it comes to his posts.
4. Amusingly John Percy, they started to go off him last August. He wrote about a -9 with a further 3 suspended and it was ahead of the Nottingham Forest game- they used to rate him quite highly but as the narrative changed, so did their views. He is I believe a Nottingham Forest fan, but again as the narrative changed they suddenly saw him as less reliable- think he spoke of -9 and a further -3.

Also me and @Hxj tried to join at varied times last year- both banned before we could even post! 

Like I say, nobody likes to admit that they've been had and a lot of Derby fans faith in Mel Morris was that to the nth degree!!

[Hxj]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

has this guidance been issued?

No idea - but my best guess is that it has been and has been strictly followed by all clubs to ensure that every cost falls within the guidance 

[Mr Popodopolous]

19 minutes ago, Hxj said:

No idea - but my best guess is that it has been and has been strictly followed by all clubs to ensure that every cost falls within the guidance 

Stoke and their £30m Impairment sticks out like a sore thumb considering the accounts we've seen so far- although you did say that it will be unique for each club.

Even more so as their huge Impairment- *ahem* Covid- *ahem*- fell in 2019/20 as opposed to 2020/21. Cannot think of any other Championship club who has done it in 2019/20 and it remains to be seen for 2020/21.

I think they can be more specific than they have been...

Guidance

• Ticket Revenue- whatever it was before minus the amount season just gone.
• ST Refunds- Add it.
• For those who did it, costs of not furloughing- believe Stoke didn't utilise it in 2019/20.
• Commercial Revenue- ie Events etc, reduced income, cost of refunds or some combination.
• Matchday Revenue- £4m say in 2019/20, behind Closed Doors- that's another £4m to add.
• Any TV rebates.

There is some more as well- most of this is usual stuff, what isn't usual is £30m in Player Impairment at a very convenient time- Impairment is fine and a normal accounting practice, but attributing it to Covid is a very different debate.

I don't see how that wouldn't be subject to ongoing review.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Mr Popodopolous

[Ivorguy]

6 hours ago, View from the Dolman said:

An audit to measure against what? You mention this "audit" process before but it's never entirely clear what you're looking for - maybe I'm unaware of the Ivorguy 7971 certification?

I mean a full look at management of the club in terms of what it has achieved against what it promised and the identification of the reasons for this.

Included:

the role of the owner for good or ill

the constraints placed on the manager in terms of selling and buying of players

the lack of a strong Board and Chairman

in what ways has BS impacted on City

relations of Board with fans

the appointment procedures for managers and CEOs

 

One could aim to achieve this in an interim audit, followed by a refined set of questions for the final audit, which would include a comparison with clubs of similar stature over the period of SL’s tenure

 

 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Ha to be fair, it's long running. I said some stuff I shouldn't in the last 2 years and a half. Some of which I regret but some of it was fighting fire with fire.

OTOH, some of them are very thin skinned indeed. Strong sense of entitlement and let's be fair nobody likes to admit that in fact they were incorrect, that their faith was misplaced. That they were had basically.

It's not just me btw...other unpopular individuals on there include but I doubt exceed mine...

1. Matt Hughes- They certainly didn't like him. He got ridiculed significantly for the -21 forecasts, he was in a roundabout way correct. Not 100% of course...
2. Kieran Maguire- They seem or some of them seem to think he has it in for Derby! As if.
3. Mr. Nixon aka Reluctantnicko- Mixed views but a level of scepticism when it comes to his posts.
4. Amusingly John Percy, they started to go off him last August. He wrote about a -9 with a further 3 suspended and it was ahead of the Nottingham Forest game- they used to rate him quite highly but as the narrative changed, so did their views. He is I believe a Nottingham Forest fan, but again as the narrative changed they suddenly saw him as less reliable- think he spoke of -9 and a further -3.

Also me and @Hxj tried to join at varied times last year- both banned before we could even post! 

Like I say, nobody likes to admit that they've been had and a lot of Derby fans faith in Mel Morris was that to the nth degree!!

I’ve been banned.  Cannot even view the forum on my iPad.  I can however still read (no login) on my iPhone.

Had a nice spat on twitter tonight with a Derby fan on the Matt Slater tweet “what’s the difference between Derby and Bristol City”.

someone tried to tell me none of the above resulted in a points deduction, so I pointed out no2 with screenshots from the EFL Decision, and he said it was amortisation related.  WTAF does he think no2 meant.  I called him a dick.

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’ve been banned.  Cannot even view the forum on my iPad.  I can however still read (no login) on my iPhone.

Had a nice spat on twitter tonight with a Derby fan on the Matt Slater tweet “what’s the difference between Derby and Bristol City”.

someone tried to tell me none of the above resulted in a points deduction, so I pointed out no2 with screenshots from the EFL Decision, and he said it was amortisation related.  WTAF does he think no2 meant.  I called him a dick.

Ha, still the narrative and attempts to compare, they go on- will be interested to see Matt Slater's thread...some Derby fans on Twitter I have to say have been sceptical that critical voices of Mel Morris have been permitted on that forum- seen discussions that intimated they were not convinced that a critical narrative of Mel Morris would be welcome. I haven't worded it well but sure you and everyone know what I meant!

[Pezo]

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’ve been banned.  Cannot even view the forum on my iPad.  I can however still read (no login) on my iPhone.

Had a nice spat on twitter tonight with a Derby fan on the Matt Slater tweet “what’s the difference between Derby and Bristol City”.

someone tried to tell me none of the above resulted in a points deduction, so I pointed out no2 with screenshots from the EFL Decision, and he said it was amortisation related.  WTAF does he think no2 meant.  I called him a dick.

What's the saying - don't argue with idiots, they bring you down to there level and beat you with experience!

[REDOXO]

32 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’ve been banned.  Cannot even view the forum on my iPad.  I can however still read (no login) on my iPhone.

Had a nice spat on twitter tonight with a Derby fan on the Matt Slater tweet “what’s the difference between Derby and Bristol City”.

someone tried to tell me none of the above resulted in a points deduction, so I pointed out no2 with screenshots from the EFL Decision, and he said it was amortisation related.  WTAF does he think no2 meant.  I called him a dick.

I’m banned as well. Had Been on there years, but no one wanted to hear about piercing the corporate veil and the fact there are no secrets anymore. 
 

still no preferred bidder as far as I can tell! 

[REDOXO]

2 hours ago, Ivorguy said:

I mean a full look at management of the club in terms of what it has achieved against what it promised and the identification of the reasons for this.

Included:

the role of the owner for good or ill

the constraints placed on the manager in terms of selling and buying of players

the lack of a strong Board and Chairman

in what ways has BS impacted on City

relations of Board with fans

the appointment procedures for managers and CEOs

 

One could aim to achieve this in an interim audit, followed by a refined set of questions for the final audit, which would include a comparison with clubs of similar stature over the period of SL’s tenure

 

 

Yep. I’m sure SL and the board are going to pay and cooperate with that un’

[054123]

Just to cycle back to @Davefevspost, 2022-23 we are looking at FFP breaches unless something drastically changes as 3 yr cycle losses will be £60m?

Barring Alex Scott turning out to be a wunderkind and being sold for 20m, how can we realistically avoid this? 

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, 054123 said:

Just to cycle back to @Davefevspost, 2022-23 we are looking at FFP breaches unless something drastically changes as 3 yr cycle losses will be £60m?

Barring Alex Scott turning out to be a wunderkind and being sold for 20m, how can we realistically avoid this? 

With @Hxjsuggesting FFP allowances of £6m p.a. (Not £3m) then that’s £9m less to worry about.  Hopefully cost cutting will continue sensibly, and we get income levels back up.  My figures still have covid allowances to take off.

But you’re right 21/22 to 23/24 will be the 3 sets of accounts that have no Covid allowances.  If we haven’t reset by then, we deserve a kicking!!

Get income around £30m, costs around £45m and we will be fine…and not reliant on selling off players out of necessity.  

[054123]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

With @Hxjsuggesting FFP allowances of £6m p.a. (Not £3m) then that’s £9m less to worry about.  Hopefully cost cutting will continue sensibly, and we get income levels back up.  My figures still have covid allowances to take off.

But you’re right 21/22 to 23/24 will be the 3 sets of accounts that have no Covid allowances.  If we haven’t reset by then, we deserve a kicking!!

Get income around £30m, costs around £45m and we will be fine…and not reliant on selling off players out of necessity.  

Phew!

Panic over

[Mr Popodopolous]

A £20m overspend? Are we sure @054123

Let's see, my relatively loose calculations so far.

2019/20 and 2020/21 combined.

£48m is the combined loss and I'm rounding, can look in more depth another time but..

1) For all clubs this is added and halved due to Covid. A - £24m starting point.

2) The cited Covid losses were £11m? I don't know if this covers solely 2020/21 or both seasons.

3) I estimate our FFP allowances to be £5m per season.

Thus that's a £14.5m loss potentially as the starting point.

On the flipside, furlough of £1.6m is non recurring revenue?

£6m in Transfer Profit not recurring- but hasn't the wage bill been cut by 30% this season?

Those players who departed, amortisation was saved in a lot of cases. Two who Ieft were resigned on lower terms- Baker and Weimann. 

Not saying that I think we're guaranteed to pass but unsure we can spend with relative freedom until 2023/24 barring big player sales.

[054123]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A £20m overspend? Are we sure @054123

Let's see, my relatively loose calculations so far.

2019/20 and 2020/21 combined.

£48m is the combined loss and I'm rounding, can look in more depth another time but..

1) For all clubs this is added and halved due to Covid. A - £24m starting point.

2) The cited Covid losses were £11m? I don't know if this covers solely 2020/21 or both seasons.

3) I estimate our FFP allowances to be £5m per season.

Thus that's a £14.5m loss potentially as the starting point.

On the flipside, furlough of £1.6m is non recurring revenue?

£6m in Transfer Profit not recurring- but hasn't the wage bill been cut by 30% this season?

Those players who departed, amortisation was saved in a lot of cases. Two who Ieft were resigned on lower terms- Baker and Weimann. 

Not saying that I think we're guaranteed to pass but unsure we can spend with relative freedom until 2023/24 barring big player sales.

Never sure @Mr Popodopolous thats your job

My job is to worry until you or @Davefevstell me not to 

Edited December 29, 2021 by 054123

[Ska Junkie]

A slightly different question, with a slightly different slant on it.

IF we continue with the current frugality and survive at this level, is there a point that (SL allowing), we could 'go for it'?

Edited December 29, 2021 by Ska Junkie