Points Deduction - When will we know?

[SBB]

10 minutes ago, The Bard said:

On 4, if I buy a beer at a Bears match, to who is the money going?  Ashton Gate Stadium Ltd, Bristol Sport, Bristol Bears or an outside organisation?

I like where this is going. Eagerly waiting for the answer my wife may be hearing after every game. 

[Hxj]

8 minutes ago, The Bard said:

On 4, if I buy a beer at a Bears match, to who is the money going?

I don't think that any goes to Bears directly or to Bristol Sport.  The Stadium will either sell you the beer or get a rent from a concession that sells you the beer.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Hxj said:

I don't think that any goes to Bears directly or to Bristol Sport.  The Stadium will either sell you the beer or get a rent from a concession that sells you the beer.

My understanding too.

[The Bard]

3 minutes ago, Hxj said:

I don't think that any goes to Bears directly or to Bristol Sport.  The Stadium will either sell you the beer or get a rent from a concession that sells you the beer.

So, one way or another Ashton Gate Stadium.  

Now, for FFP does the income from Bears games count? 

[Hxj]

5 minutes ago, The Bard said:

Now, for FFP does the income from Bears games count? 

Ticket income no.  Bears receive the ticket income and pay a rent, which does count.

Any income received by the Stadium counts for FFP purposes, and any costs incurred also count for FFP purposes.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Hxj

[Steve Watts]

18 hours ago, Hxj said:

I'm not sure how any penalty can be imposed for a period where the final figures are not available.  Yes good estimates are available, but for example what if you would have ended up 6th without the points penalty and made it to the play-off final, that might be enough to mean that you didn't fail at all.  I appreciate all conjecture, but who knows??

I reckon that we are flying at around £38-£39 million FFP losses for the period ending 31 May 2023.  I think that you and @Davefevs are too conservative on allowables and too conservative on income growth from the Stadium.

On the Stadium side good to see that Lisa Knights has been appointed a Director of Ashton Gate Limited.

I guess the argument here would be that if you had kept you finances fair then you possibly wouldn't have finished 6th.  If you've extended yourself to the extent that you've violated FFP then it would be strongly argued that you've gained an unfair advantage.

Of course, where the EFL leave themselves open to appeal with all this is where they failed to punish Bournemouth in the season that they got promoted to the Prem for a massive overspend. If they had applied the punishment before the club left membership of the EFL then that would be different.  But I believe they've possibly shot themselves in the foot a little there.  Certainly left lawyers a thread to pick at I'd have thought... 

[The Bard]

12 minutes ago, Hxj said:

Ticket income no.  Bears receive the ticket income and pay a rent, which does count.

Any income received by the Stadium counts for FFP purposes, and any costs incurred also count for FFP purposes.

Thanks.  If the stadium is losing money for an event where you charge £5+ for a pint and sometimes sell up to 50,000 pints then there is something seriously wrong. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

11 minutes ago, Steve Watts said:

I guess the argument here would be that if you had kept you finances fair then you possibly wouldn't have finished 6th.  If you've extended yourself to the extent that you've violated FFP then it would be strongly argued that you've gained an unfair advantage.

Of course, where the EFL leave themselves open to appeal with all this is where they failed to punish Bournemouth in the season that they got promoted to the Prem for a massive overspend. If they had applied the punishment before the club left membership of the EFL then that would be different.  But I believe they've possibly shot themselves in the foot a little there.  Certainly left lawyers a thread to pick at I'd have thought... 

Rules were different then- it was literally one year, after and only after the event- ie next season at the earliest, perhaps December of the following season and crucially there was no scope for points deductions, only a hefty fine subject to size of overspend in the event of promotion or a transfer embargo if not- open ended transfer embargo until the club got back to balance.

The way Leicester went up in 2013/14 though was much more opaque...would the EFL have looked for some different sanctions there or would they have had to stick to the fine/embargo? Wasn't so much the size of the overspend as the potential masking of it.

Agree with your general point though but yes- it's covered a bit in EFL v Birmingham IDC1 when the latter claimed they had gained no sporting advantage so should not be punished- counterfactual of others being allowed to overspend to the same level...in other words had a club overspent by £4m say and finished 6th- well then it comes down to by how many points, what that extra £4m gained in terms of players, goals and points and so on. OTOH had the side in 7th been able to overspend by £4m then different ballgame.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

May as well update this thread a little- in recent days we have heard two contradictory explanations arguably from those high up in the club- I'll summarise.

@Davefevs @BCFCGav @Hxj @chinapig @Port Said Red

@downendcity @ExiledAjax

Feel free to tag others etc.

SL- Saturday

Quote

I'm not too worried about FFP, the only thing that worries me is that people start to do it in theory and I think in practice we need a cap on which we're not allowed to spend more than..."

Ha the bit in bold sounds a little like it could describe some of my posts.

Mr. Gould- today

"Might still get a deduction, should know more in next 6-9 months, degree of uncertainty and UEFA reform feeds into this" However he also mentions significant reforms along the lines of UEFA?

Which is it then- I've had a slight bad feeling for a little while that we will be the ones holding the parcel when the music stops in the spring or next summer and the reforms will follow on pretty quickly after. Any or all of the 3 promoted would avoid by dint of promotion, Stoke through their £56m losses attributed to Covid, Middlesbrough more conventionally by selling Spence and Tavernier. Reading have resigned Long, loaned Hendrick- players departed sure, some hard work last season to get costs down yes- but that season will also have included the profit on Olise and maybe others...are they not also at risk? Then again shouldn't be as the EFL approve all of their inbound transfers- would be pretty negligent of the Football League to have an Agreed Business Plan with required approval of signings that sees them breach- and a reasonable defence too I'd suggest.

Of course perhaps if required we will do what has been done before and sell some more, reinvest a bit and stick to or below £39m that way.

One interpretation is that when a combination of allowances and reforms are finalised we will be okay- another might be that we are banking on reforms to an extent to bail us out.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[BCFCGav]

We should sell Scott or Semenyo, much as it pains me. We have the 4th highest xG in the league (understood it's a small sample size, but it's consistent with last season really), we can afford to lose one or the other. It'd be so nice to only have the league table to worry about, not the finances too! Plus a significant windfall would allow us to strengthen where we actually need to, defense. 

Dream scenario is we make the money from Han-Noah or Kalas or maybe Bentley, but those offers ain't coming. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Because of the extra dimension Semenyo can give us, but selling Scott- well such a star of the future. OTOH Scott's age and stage of development may mean we get him back say this and next season on loan.

They aren't are they- and so far no significant- Szmodics aside- sell on cash .Brownhill despite being linked with many seems not to be on the way out, and as for Webster or Kelly moving on- nothing at all for months! I wonder if this has formed a part of our projections?

Burnley to name some have sold Pope, Collins, McNeil and Cornet so far- Brownhill so far remains.

Brighton have sold Cucarella and Bissouma for big money and Webster under contract until 2026 so can't see that.

Bournemouth newly promoted, Newcastle not yet spending as much as expected- and Kelly probably their best defender yet good on the ball too, can't see that happening this summer can you!

Can we catch a break with one or more of these?

Edited August 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Oh Louie louie]

The only person a top club would be intrested in is tinnion after the work he has done

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Oh Louie louie said:

The only person a top club would be intrested in is tinnion after the work he has done

Doesn't have to be a top club for say Scott or Semenyo, a regular PL club for the right fee etc.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

43 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

"Might still get a deduction, should know more in next 6-9 months, degree of uncertainty and UEFA reform feeds into this" However he also mentions significant reforms along the lines of UEFA?

Basically under current FFP rules we are in trouble next season. The accounts for 21/22 season are going to be bad, and so when we do FFP reporting we are, unless we sell someone for big money this window, ******. Like proper ******.

But, the Club are hopeful that the EFL/FA/UEFA will issue rules/guidance that allow us to mitigate the losses of the last two seasons. In particular we are hoping the EFL allow the "lost potential transfer revenue" that we and Stoke have put forward. 

If either I) a big sale, or II) the potential losses allowed happens, then we will likely be ok.

As to press releases etc, well we're trying to be diplomatic with the authorities and coy with our competitors, which is why there might be some mixed messaging.

17 minutes ago, BCFCGav said:

We should sell Scott or Semenyo, much as it pains me.

It's one solution, but we are waiting to see if further rules come out to assist us. If they don't then yes I'd expect a sale either this summer or in January.

[Oh Louie louie]

Well let's hope a regular club starts bidding on what we need soon mr p! Not many will chance the dough we need quick

[Mr Popodopolous]

11 minutes ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Well let's hope a regular club starts bidding on what we need soon mr p! Not many will chance the dough we need quick

I have several different figures for the size of the overspend- hopefully it's towards the lower end as the lower the overspend, the lower the deduction.

Seen between 1-4 points suggested in varied bits online in recent months. Only the club and the Football League would know for sure of course.

Example anyway- Keane Lewis Potter went for £15-20m didn't he- he had a similar record to Semenyo last season when factoring in goals and assists.

In fact, when weighted and perhaps in absolute terms Semenyo's record is superior- although he is a year older.

KLP- 46 starts, 12 goals and 3 assists.

AS- 31 appearances, of these 24 starts- 8 goals and 12 assists.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Oh Louie louie]

Mr pop lot of clubs already done their business I just hope we can get that sort of dough. 

[Oh Louie louie]

In a nutshell nobody is snapping our hand off for anybody this worries me

[Port Said Red]

34 minutes ago, BCFCGav said:

We should sell Scott or Semenyo, much as it pains me. We have the 4th highest xG in the league (understood it's a small sample size, but it's consistent with last season really), we can afford to lose one or the other. It'd be so nice to only have the league table to worry about, not the finances too! Plus a significant windfall would allow us to strengthen where we actually need to, defense. 

Dream scenario is we make the money from Han-Noah or Kalas or maybe Bentley, but those offers ain't coming. 

It depends, how many point will we be deducted V how many point having those two in our team will bring us. That's an equation that rarely gets mentioned.

[Super]

I'm guessing if we are deducted points we won't be the only club?

[BCFCGav]

10 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

It depends, how many point will we be deducted V how many point having those two in our team will bring us. That's an equation that rarely gets mentioned.

I've been a staunch fighter in team 'we won't be relegated this season' and I still am. But with our defense starting the season so in line with last seasons showings (2.5 goals per game, nervous when we lead, 1 90+ goal already), I just have this horror scenario in my head of a points deduction in L1 and where that would put us. 

It won't come to that - I know it won't - but it's nagging me. 

[Oh Louie louie]

In this climate all we are going to get is thief's, last few days off window. That's my prediction 

[Mr Popodopolous]

14 minutes ago, Super said:

I'm guessing if we are deducted points we won't be the only club?

I'd have thought not but it sounds like there is nobody else being mentioned at the moment which makes me a little nervous in this respect.

Few I can think of in terms of candidates but one of them has tbh brought in £20-30m of transfer profit (Middlesbrough- Spence and Tavernier- fee minus net book value of zero=full fee as profit), Stoke seem to not even countenance that they could have breached and indeed are still complaining loudly every so often- some cynical and creative accounting there needs proper scrutiny. Reading must be candidates but if signings there are actively approved by the Football League then surely that keeps them the right side, Birmingham maybe their issues would arise in 2023/24, see also Cardiff- other category, any or all of Bournemouth, Fulham or Nottingham Forest would have been candidates but promoted?? Might also be interesting to see what happens with WBA IF they stay down, but again 2023/24 not now.

OTOH if Everton- PL- are permitted £170m in Covid costs and add-backs and Stoke £55-60m in the 3 seasons how on earth can we be punished severely in light of that? Makes no sense. Yes Everton are PL but the system- save for loss limits tied to equity and one or two other small bits- is still the same.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Oh Louie louie]

Im looking at signings in the prem.

Where there is money.

Nowhere near as much money flying about.

[Davefevs]

7 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

As to press releases etc, well we're trying to be diplomatic with the authorities and coy with our competitors, which is why there might be some mixed messaging.

Exactly.

The wording from RG (on @3 Peaps In A PodCast) was deliberately opaque imho, and the headlines from Bristol Online deliberately “sensational”.

If you listen to the podcast, I think for the EFL to be 6-9 months away from knowing how they’ll handle it, leaves me less worried.  The financial data is known both from actual actual account (2021), yet to be published accounts (2022) and projected accounts (2023).  All of this in it’s various submissions to the EFL is in place / known.  I think RG is more commenting on the new unknown UEFA stuff, whilst trying to be coy re our commercial position.

Its a bit of a double edged sword.  It will attract suitors looking for a cheap deal for Scott, Semenyo, etc, but it will also show clubs we want to recruit from that we can’t afford much.

No disrespect to 3PIAP, but I don’t think RG is so open on a podcast if he has genuine financial concerns.

[Davefevs]

8 hours ago, BCFCGav said:

We should sell Scott or Semenyo, much as it pains me. We have the 4th highest xG in the league (understood it's a small sample size, but it's consistent with last season really), we can afford to lose one or the other. It'd be so nice to only have the league table to worry about, not the finances too! Plus a significant windfall would allow us to strengthen where we actually need to, defense. 

Dream scenario is we make the money from Han-Noah or Kalas or maybe Bentley, but those offers ain't coming. 

We don’t need £10m / £15m / £20m…it’s not a big hitter we need to sell, just a “bit” to keep us in line.  Selling Scott or Semenyo, is overkill for the financial situation.  We won’t turn down a bid that meets our selling point, but we don’t need to sell one to balance against FFP per se.