The Semenyo Thread - Now a Bournemouth Player. Deal Confirmed

[italian dave]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Depends how much we paid him initially doesn’t it?  If we gave him £10k p.w. as an 18 year old…is he now deserving of more than Andi Weimann for example?  I guess context is everything…I’ve no idea what he’s on or what he’s been offered.  Poor old Andi had to take a 50% cut (we know from Nige it was a cut).  It would not surprise me if we “overpaid” at the time and the reality of the current contract deal is more aligned to his ability / experience / performance levels.  As you say the world has moved on.

I think he’s experiencing what lots of other pros are…existing contract terms might be better than future contract terms.

In this scenario, you can play the field a bit, but he also needs to be reminded that he can’t walk for free in the summer, compensation is due under FA or FIFA regs.

Depends if money is the driver.  I don’t expect him to play for buttons either.  It’s a complex dynamic in a worsening market.  I rate him though, and would be trying to get him to sign, but there are wage structures in place….for a reason.  I think he’s playing well (in the main) at the moment too.

Smudger….Semenyo (sorry, ooops).

100% Dave. As you say, all conjecture as we have no idea, but Weimann coming from what he could command at the peak of his career and now nearing the end of it is going to be very different to HNM from the very start of his career and having established himself. I think we agree, he just feels he may have options and who can blame him. Lie you, I’d like to think we’ll do all we reasonably can to keep him.

[REDOXO]

1 hour ago, Lord Northski said:

I would counter your point, by suggesting that there’s been speculation about his likely departure for months, and rather than undermine team moral, he’s playing better than he has done since his arrival, I would add that his personal level of commitment at least matches everyone in the team. Plus, the whole team’s playing more entertaining football than it has for years. As such, I would like him to stay.
Football as they say is a game of opinions.

 

Yes it is. I like your response but by and large disagree. 
 

He has had a couple maybe four decent games since the turn of the year, which show his ability, but he is as inconsistent as Callum O Dowda and is often picked due to injuries or fitness issues of other players rather than his own value. That I think is shown by Mr Pearson’s preferred selections.  
 

Either way I wish the kid every success either here or somewhere else. But I’ve had enough of this contract saga. The only difference between this and the Maynard fiasco is at least Massengo and his people are not misleading anyone. 

[The Bard]

10 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

Yes it is. I like your response but by and large disagree. 
 

He has had a couple maybe four decent games since the turn of the year, which show his ability, but he is as inconsistent as Callum O Dowda and is often picked due to injuries or fitness issues of other players rather than his own value. That I think is shown by Mr Pearson’s preferred selections.  
 

Either way I wish the kid every success either here or somewhere else. But I’ve had enough of this contract saga. The only difference between this and the Maynard fiasco is at least Massengo and his people are not misleading anyone. 

I get the impression we won't be fooled now.  Probably not the case previously.

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

Read a little earlier that he's having a medical at WBA.

[redpole]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Read a little earlier that he's having a medical at WBA.

I’ve said in previous posts that he would have been top of my list for a striker we should have been looking at if Wells went, unfortunately we were never going to be able to compete with our current situation. @Davefevs looked at his numbers and he was very good. The sort of gamble we should have been taking if the timing was right. 

[Engvall’s Splinter]

4 hours ago, Simon bristol said:

I agree, he hasnt done anything wrong, but leaving like that leaves a bitter after taste. We just need to secure a sell on clause if he does go! Its a shame too cause the supporter base in general have really taken to him and to wind his contract down like that kinda throws that back in peoples faces.

 Wind his contract down or honour it? 

[AshtonRobin21]

Here's an interesting one:

Burnley are interested in signing Michael Obafemi (Swansea). The clubs are in talks and Swansea reportedly want £10m. 

Source: Stuart James (Swansea reporter - The Athletic)

Obafemi is not a regular source of goals at all. So we should definitely be looking for a minimum of £18m-£20m for Semenyo in my opinion. 

[Lanterne Rouge]

Were Leeds reportedly interested? If so. Rodrigo`s just done his shoulder and looks like he may be out for a while.

[Ian M]

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

agree…post mainly for the benefit of others who think we have to sell a “big-un”!

Before the start of the season I estimated we were somewhere in the region of being £2.5m shy of complying.  @Mr Popodopoloushas a slightly wider range, think he’s in the £2-4m ballpark.

We’ve since had a number of “transactions” in and out and I think we’ve brought that deficit down, but not by a huge amount.  We have to comply by the end of this season, although projections submitted in March might prompt action from the EFL.  So we’ve got 6 months to sort things out…we still have January window, hence why no panic.

That deficit might be covered by additional Covid allowances, and therefore we are currently satisfying EFL.  If Stoke and Forest were putting in tens of millions in, surely we can exempt enough?

Hence why I think we are complying, but with a very prudent outlook until the EFL formally confirm the “rules” and also new rules from next season onwards.  We don’t want to do something now that will hamstring us in future.

Its very much guesswork, and I can re-baseline my figs when 21/22’s accounts come out.  They might come out earlier this year by the sounds of it.

 

Dave, in your £2.5m shortfall projection, did you account for increased attendances?

So far we are 2k up on last season and if we could maintain that by challenging higher up the table with attractive,  attacking football, it could be good for £1m extra revenue through ticket sales then add a bit for matchday spend, replica shirts etc. We also went out of both Cup competitions at the first attempt so could bring a little extra through that too. 

 

A little saving here, a little allowance there and a sprinkling of additional revenue and we could get very close to meeting our target?

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Dave, in your £2.5m shortfall projection, did you account for increased attendances?

So far we are 2k up on last season and if we could maintain that by challenging higher up the table with attractive,  attacking football, it could be good for £1m extra revenue through ticket sales then add a bit for matchday spend, replica shirts etc. We also went out of both Cup competitions at the first attempt so could bring a little extra through that too. 

 

A little saving here, a little allowance there and a sprinkling of additional revenue and we could get very close to meeting our target?

I did…basically adjusted for increased revenue.

But don’t take it too seriously, it’s just a set of guesstimates.

As I said earlier, my estimates are for both 21/22 and 22/23…so two years, probably got lots of differences in them.

They can be refined once 21/22 accounts are published.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Were Leeds reportedly interested? If so. Rodrigo`s just done his shoulder and looks like he may be out for a while.

As well as the Palace links, I think Semenyo could suit Leeds and their high pressing game. I could also see him at Brentford in their fluid front 3 but I don't know how into last minute business they are. London connection there too as with Palace.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I did…basically adjusted for increased revenue.

But don’t take it too seriously, it’s just a set of guesstimates.

As I said earlier, my estimates are for both 21/22 and 22/23…so two years, probably got lots of differences in them.

They can be refined once 21/22 accounts are published.

I certainly agree with this Dave, my models also have a range of scenarios.

One bit I would ask, what kind of wages do you think the new signings might be on? My best guess for Wilson, Naismith, Sykes was £8k per week as an average. What of Bajic a bit less?

My extrapolations are trying to estimate savings them add back the new wages to try and work out the overall position. Assuming yours are similar?

Possible too I am double counting loss on disposal of Palmer vs the amortisation costs he'd have incurred anyway.

Otoh we can all relax and will reveal why in a mo...

Edited August 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

The sage of Forever Bristol City reckons we have lost only £10m in 2021-22?? @Davefevs

We're saved!!

I'd love to see his workings, would give us all a relaxing season.

To be fair I was a little harsh but I would love to see the workings and I would really like them to be accurate. We're basically safe from FFP this year if he is.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Port Said Red]

52 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I certainly agree with this Dave, my models also have a range of scenarios.

One bit I would ask, what kind of wages do you think the new signings might be on? My best guess for Wilson, Naismith, Sykes was £8k per week as an average. What of Bajic a bit less?

My extrapolations are trying to estimate savings them add back the new wages to try and work out the overall position. Assuming yours are similar?

Possible too I am double counting loss on disposal of Palmer vs the amortisation costs he'd have incurred anyway.

Otoh we can all relax and will reveal why in a mo...

Are you including signing on fees amortised into the wages for those three? I believe £8000 PW would be greater than our major signing last season which seems unlikely? Naismith I could see an argument for being on the top wage target (10k?). But Sykes was a bit of a punt and I don't believe there was much competition for him and Wilson was in League 2 so wouldn't have needed a silly wage offer to stay in the area and have a crack at the Championship.

[Mr Popodopolous]

40 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Are you including signing on fees amortised into the wages for those three? I believe £8000 PW would be greater than our major signing last season which seems unlikely? Naismith I could see an argument for being on the top wage target (10k?). But Sykes was a bit of a punt and I don't believe there was much competition for him and Wilson was in League 2 so wouldn't have needed a silly wage offer to stay in the area and have a crack at the Championship.

Maybe, haven't considered those.

Was a bit of a stab in the dark wages wise, perhaps overestimating the market but £8k by Championship standards feels quite modest? Thought a few sides were in for Wilson or was that paper talk.

Signing on fees are iirc amortised over length of contract.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I certainly agree with this Dave, my models also have a range of scenarios.

One bit I would ask, what kind of wages do you think the new signings might be on? My best guess for Wilson, Naismith, Sykes was £8k per week as an average. What of Bajic a bit less?

My extrapolations are trying to estimate savings them add back the new wages to try and work out the overall position. Assuming yours are similar?

Possible too I am double counting loss on disposal of Palmer vs the amortisation costs he'd have incurred anyway.

Otoh we can all relax and will reveal why in a mo...

Although I will have a “Fevs” estimate for each players wage and I will track every in and out, I tend to work in more ballpark figures, because wages are really the biggest guesswork out there, ie. It’s gone up or down a bit / lot.

Naismith will undoubtedly be the biggest earner of the 4.

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The sage of Forever Bristol City reckons we have lost only £10m in 2021-22?? @Davefevs

We're saved!!

I'd love to see his workings, would give us all a relaxing season.

To be fair I was a little harsh but I would love to see the workings and I would really like them to be accurate. We're basically safe from FFP this year if he is.

You’re forgetting the £8m we are getting for Andi Weimann

40 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Are you including signing on fees amortised into the wages for those three? I believe £8000 PW would be greater than our major signing last season which seems unlikely? Naismith I could see an argument for being on the top wage target (10k?). But Sykes was a bit of a punt and I don't believe there was much competition for him and Wilson was in League 2 so wouldn't have needed a silly wage offer to stay in the area and have a crack at the Championship.

I do a player by player amortisation model….without knowing exact fees, on a circa £35m total asset value, I’m £150k out (less than 0.5% out).  I’ll take that as an amateur!!!  In the last year I’ve moved my calculations from an annual amortisation cost to a monthly one, so if a player extends mid year I can factor in the correct residuals.

Overall, I put a fair bit of effort into it, but it really isn’t meant to be exact.  If I’m within £3m either way when the accounts come out, I’ll be dead chuffed.  Of course the Ashton Gate / Holdings stuff really is an unknown for me.  Got no idea how much Elton helps!

[Port Said Red]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Although I will have a “Fevs” estimate for each players wage and I will track every in and out, I tend to work in more ballpark figures, because wages are really the biggest guesswork out there, ie. It’s gone up or down a bit / lot.

Naismith will undoubtedly be the biggest earner of the 4.

You’re forgetting the £8m we are getting for Andi Weimann

I do a player by player amortisation model….without knowing exact fees, on a circa £35m total asset value, I’m £150k out (less than 0.5% out).  I’ll take that as an amateur!!!  In the last year I’ve moved my calculations from an annual amortisation cost to a monthly one, so if a player extends mid year I can factor in the correct residuals.

Overall, I put a fair bit of effort into it, but it really isn’t meant to be exact.  If I’m within £3m either way when the accounts come out, I’ll be dead chuffed.  Of course the Ashton Gate / Holdings stuff really is an unknown for me.  Got no idea how much Elton helps!

I agree, I would love to see a breakdown of where the money goes from the concerts. I wonder if it's as simple as "you keep the ticket money Reg and we will have the f&b money and the rental for the stalls around the ground? 

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I agree, I would love to see a breakdown of where the money goes from the concerts. I wonder if it's as simple as "you keep the ticket money Reg and we will have the f&b money and the rental for the stalls around the ground? 

Our little way of taking money off Watford

[ExiledAjax]

9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The sage of Forever Bristol City reckons we have lost only £10m in 2021-22?? @Davefevs

We're saved!!

I'd love to see his workings, would give us all a relaxing season.

To be fair I was a little harsh but I would love to see the workings and I would really like them to be accurate. We're basically safe from FFP this year if he is.

The bloke knows as much about our 21/22 losses as he does about Andi Weimann's transfer. Mug.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

The bloke knows as much about our 21/22 losses as he does about Andi Weimann's transfer. Mug.

For avoidance of doubt, I don't actually believe we lost £10m last season haha...more than double is my guess, low to mid £20s.

Weimann sale will save...oh wait.

[robin_unreliant]

No news is good news I feel. Don't want him to go personally and it seems unlikely now as we are so close to the deadline and there is nothing new being reported. 

[Super]

1 minute ago, robin_unreliant said:

No news is good news I feel. Don't want him to go personally and it seems unlikely now as we are so close to the deadline and there is nothing new being reported. 

is it tomorrow 11pm it closes?

[LondonBristolian]

28 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

No news is good news I feel. Don't want him to go personally and it seems unlikely now as we are so close to the deadline and there is nothing new being reported. 

I agree. Pearson was pretty clear in his press conference we were only selling players on our terms and part of that was time to get someone in. Plus, by all accounts, Semenyo does not come across as someone who is going to be a dick about a potential move.

Theoretically we could still agree a deal with a loan back until January or Tuesday the end of the season but that kind of deal is mooted by fans far more often than it actually happens in reality.

My guess is the transfer window is essentially closed from our perspective.

[downendcity]

14 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The sage of Forever Bristol City reckons we have lost only £10m in 2021-22?? @Davefevs

We're saved!!

I'd love to see his workings, would give us all a relaxing season.

To be fair I was a little harsh but I would love to see the workings and I would really like them to be accurate. We're basically safe from FFP this year if he is.

Happy to oblige Mr P! 

[Logical-City]

2 hours ago, robin_unreliant said:

No news is good news I feel. Don't want him to go personally and it seems unlikely now as we are so close to the deadline and there is nothing new being reported. 

Wait to see if he is on the bench tonight that will tell you all you need to know

[W-S-M Seagull]

2 hours ago, robin_unreliant said:

No news is good news I feel. Don't want him to go personally and it seems unlikely now as we are so close to the deadline and there is nothing new being reported. 

We all know by now that one transfer can set off a whole chain of transfers so it wouldn't surprise me if that were to happen. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

I saw Pearsons comments around clubs having all summer differently to others. 

I saw it as him saying "look we have two players lined up but we can't bring them in unless we sell so if you're going to buy one of our players you need to do it now so we can complete those deals" 

[Hxj]

1 hour ago, downendcity said:

Happy to oblige Mr P! 

@downendcityCorrected that for you below -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sleepy1968]

1 hour ago, Logical-City said:

Wait to see if he is on the bench tonight that will tell you all you need to know

Quite. If I knew we were going to win tonight I'd ask NP to leave him out just to troll otib for the evening. No doubt there will be a favoured rumour that picks up traction tonight.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Sleepy1968

[Victory Park Reds]

I’m not a great lover of the geezer it must be said.

The way he always taunts us when he has scored against us is bizarre.As far as I’m aware he came on loan didn’t play and then started being Ronaldo against us ? Why his hate - bizarre .A bit like Cunningham as well from that era.Very weird.

However it’s better to be pissing out of the tent than in and if Semenyo is off then he is a good replacement and my love for Callum will grow as much as love for Cheddar Valley,well not that much.

Over the yrs we’ve had bull and much,Tommy tynan ,Dave ******* kelly, who use to score with abandon against us so apart from Bully the others were at various time at our level.

Again I wish we keep our attack BUT if the lure of the prem comes knocking my new hero CB isn’t bad imho.

coyr and see u at the Wedlock’s Bar later