Points lost from winning positions

[MC RISK77]

17 hours ago, Harry said:

I agree with all of the highlighted bits.  I’m very happy with the performances this season, the games have been entertaining, I’m behind Pearson and know he’s got a tough job. But I’m not happy at seeing Scott & Weimann playing wing back, and I’m not happy with our sluggish midfield 3. Last season it was semi-acceptable to play Scott, Weimann, Bell there as we had no other options. Not this season. I’m not having it. 
I just don’t see what any of that has to do with LJ. Move on. He left 3 years ago. And, for what it’s worth, if you really want to check through all of my posting history, you will 100% find posts questioning LJ’s tactical decisions too. But you don’t remember those, do you….

Haha looks like you are being stalked mate….very odd.

[Davefevs]

FWIW we’ve conceded 2 goals in the opening 15 mins of games and 2 in the final 15 mins (plus injury time).

We’ve conceded 3 in the 61-75 mins period.

Maybe we ought to be analysing why we haven’t scored in that last 15 min period.  Maybe that’s the outlier?

[ralphindevon]

T

7 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

FWIW we’ve conceded 2 goals in the opening 15 mins of games and 2 in the final 15 mins (plus injury time).

We’ve conceded 3 in the 61-75 mins period.

Maybe we ought to be analysing why we haven’t scored in that last 15 min period.  Maybe that’s the outlier?

That's interesting, I wonder if after last season and the start of this we're so concerned with not conceding that we stop doing the good things going forward? Maybe attack is the best form of defence, after all we are pretty good at that at the moment.

[spudski]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

FWIW we’ve conceded 2 goals in the opening 15 mins of games and 2 in the final 15 mins (plus injury time).

We’ve conceded 3 in the 61-75 mins period.

Maybe we ought to be analysing why we haven’t scored in that last 15 min period.  Maybe that’s the outlier?

Because we sit back and don't play with the same amount of energy as we do in first halves where score most of our goals.

You only have to watch with your eyes to see the intent isn't as explosive...

As I've said on numerous threads...play to our strengths in the second half. Keep doing what we do, like in the first half.

Keep making chances and kill off games. Don't sit back in one goal leads.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, spudski said:

Because we sit back and don't play with the same amount of energy as we do in first halves where score most of our goals.

You only have to watch with your eyes to see the intent isn't as explosive...

As I've said on numerous threads...play to our strengths in the second half. Keep doing what we do, like in the first half.

Keep making chances and kill off games. Don't sit back in one goal leads.

You could be right…I want to watch over a longer period.

Just throwing out a bit of “correlation not causation” out there, but both late goals conceded were away from home.

The two half time leads we had at home were held (to clean sheets).

Could this also be the perils of a smaller squad, ie generally we are bringing on subs who aren’t quite to the level of our starters?

I dunno, just gonna watch a bit more first.

[cidercity1987]

8 minutes ago, spudski said:

Because we sit back and don't play with the same amount of energy as we do in first halves where score most of our goals.

You only have to watch with your eyes to see the intent isn't as explosive...

As I've said on numerous threads...play to our strengths in the second half. Keep doing what we do, like in the first half.

Keep making chances and kill off games. Don't sit back in one goal leads.

Looking at our expected goal timeline from yesterday, we didn't have a single chance from scoring the third to the end of the game. Very disappointing not to push on again as we are always vulnerable to a late equaliser

[chinapig]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Could this also be the perils of a smaller squad, ie generally we are bringing on subs who aren’t quite to the level of our starters?

I think so in one sense.

Nigel says he likes to play with high energy but that dissipates when you introduce the likes of James and King who lack the intensity of those they replace.

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Looking at our expected goal timeline from yesterday, we didn't have a single chance from scoring the third to the end of the game. Very disappointing not to push on again as we are always vulnerable to a late equaliser

We had 1, Conway’s cut in and shot from the left.

 

 

its a good point though.  We also stopped them for 15-20 mins after we went 3-2 up…just that last 5 mins plus injury time.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Davefevs

[Rob k]

2 minutes ago, chinapig said:

I think so in one sense.

Nigel says he likes to play with high energy but that dissipates when you introduce the likes of James and King who lack the intensity of those they replace.

Hence the slug comment 

[Mad Cyril]

We have lead in 15 of our last 16 games, but won less than half of them......

[spudski]

5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

You could be right…I want to watch over a longer period.

Just throwing out a bit of “correlation not causation” out there, but both late goals conceded were away from home.

The two half time leads we had at home were held (to clean sheets).

Could this also be the perils of a smaller squad, ie generally we are bringing on subs who aren’t quite to the level of our starters?

I dunno, just gonna watch a bit more first.

 

2 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Looking at our expected goal timeline from yesterday, we didn't have a single chance from scoring the third to the end of the game. Very disappointing not to push on again as we are always vulnerable to a late equaliser

I've been impressed with our offensive play...and so NP...he's alluded to the fact we always look capable of scoring. Yet sees our deficiency in defence.

Why then sit back on leads...it makes no sense.

It's almost a psychological block that needs breaking. The ethos of sitting back defending leads seems ingrained. Fine if you are good at defending...but we aren't. 

[cidercity1987]

7 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

We had 1, Conway’s cut in and shot from the left.

 

 

its a good point though.  We also stopped them for 15-20 mins after we went 3-2 up…just that last 5 mins plus injury time.

I looked at the E365 timelines, funny how they had Blackpool 'winning' on expected goals. Any idea what the difference is between that and yours above?

Edited August 28, 2022 by cidercity1987

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, cidercity1987 said:

I looked at the E365 timelines, funny how they had Blackpool 'winning' on expected goals. Any idea what the difference is between that and yours above?

It’s not mine. They use different models. Wyscout had us 2.47 Blackpool 1.95.  Had it been Conway tapping in Wells header off the bar instead of an og ours would’ve been even higher. 

[Major Isewater]

21 hours ago, ralphindevon said:

I’m not sure why people are getting angry with Harry.

This is a football forum and when you’re at the top/bottom of any league of stats it’s worth discussing surely? 

I am just a little disappointed at the negativity of the thread considering our recent performances , clean sheets etc .

The players have given their all for the shirt and OK cocked up for the third goal( I am sure Harry never makes mistakes) but they more than deserve our support even so. 
It seems like certain posters can’t wait to stick the knife in and the negativity is a) very boring and b) unhelpful to the atmosphere around the club.

 

[ralphindevon]

3 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

I am just a little disappointed at the negativity of the thread considering our recent performances , clean sheets etc .

The players have given their all for the shirt and OK cocked up for the third goal( I am sure Harry never makes mistakes) but they more than deserve our support even so. 
It seems like certain posters can’t wait to stick the knife in and the negativity is a) very boring and b) unhelpful to the atmosphere around the club.

 

I can understand your point and would be disappointed if I heard fans venting anger at players at the game.

The place to have a moan is here and the fact is, it’s quite an extraordinary stat that sets us apart from every other team. A bit like the lack of penalties it’s quite odd and worth a discussion.

In this case it’s almost a good thing because so much else is going well. sort this problem out and we’re potential promotion contenders.

[spudski]

3 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

I am just a little disappointed at the negativity of the thread considering our recent performances , clean sheets etc .

The players have given their all for the shirt and OK cocked up for the third goal( I am sure Harry never makes mistakes) but they more than deserve our support even so. 
It seems like certain posters can’t wait to stick the knife in and the negativity is a) very boring and b) unhelpful to the atmosphere around the club.

 

I can't see any negativity...none at all.

This forum has a tendency to want people for or against a manager.

It's really weird.

It's a reflection of the world we live in now.

Constructive criticism seems to be the new evil. 

You can still be very supportive of a manager and be constructive in your criticism.

After all...this is exactly what the manager and staff will be doing...looking for ways of winning and not conceding when leading.

Why can't supporters do the same? Why is it seen as negative?

Everyone can see we are doing well...improving...going in the right direction. We are now a joy to watch again.

Yet there is still room for improvement. That can be debated surely?

No one is moaning.

No one is saying we are crap.

No one has an agenda to want NP gone.

The majority can see the improvement.

This isn't Facebook or tick toc. But sometimes you think it is...due to the reactions of people who don't seem to be able to comprehend constructive debate...positive or criticism. 

Why can't people see the OP has the best interest of the club at heart, isn't negative...supports the improvement, but enjoys talking about how we can improve even more?

That's exactly what managers do everyday.

 

 

 

 

[Monkeh]

On 27/08/2022 at 17:44, Harry said:

Is now up to 10. 
3 v Hull. 
3 v Sunderland. 
2 v Wigan. 
2 v Blackpool. 
 

I don’t have the stats, but I’d guess that’s the highest in the league. 

We were 1-0 down against Blackpool so it's a point gained

[Harry]

59 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

I am just a little disappointed at the negativity of the thread considering our recent performances , clean sheets etc .

The players have given their all for the shirt and OK cocked up for the third goal( I am sure Harry never makes mistakes) but they more than deserve our support even so. 
It seems like certain posters can’t wait to stick the knife in and the negativity is a) very boring and b) unhelpful to the atmosphere around the club.

 

Well, I think there’s a helluva lot of positivity on this thread too. I think it strikes a good balance. 
Not sure if you are only reading what you want to read but I’ve quite clearly stated that I’ve enjoyed how we’ve played this season, I’ve enjoyed the players now ‘buying in’, I’ve said I’m fully behind Pearson. I’ve said that I feel this bunch of players are now worthy of support and glad to be rid of the shite that have been calling themselves professional footballers the last few years. I’ve said lots of positives. But yes there is a major negative point to be discussed. Just because it’s a negative point it doesn’t mean I “can’t wait to stick the knife in” or am trying to create an “unhelpful atmosphere”. We’re discussing something that is a matter of fact, not an opinion. Fact is we’ve let 10 points slip from a winning position (and mostly quite late in games). Whilst there’s lots to be positive about, we’re far from perfect, so I don’t see the problem in being able to discuss those imperfections. 
I actually find the “can only be positive” stuff a bit sycophantic to be honest. Surely even the most positive of people can acknowledge that there is a significant imperfection here, wilfully ignoring it and not being allowed to discuss it is rather blind. 

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

We were 1-0 down against Blackpool so it's a point gained

Very true. So we’ve gained 1 point from a losing position this season and lost 10 points from a winning position. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

We were 1-0 down against Blackpool so it's a point gained

1-0 and 2-1 down.

Unsure we can include the Sunderland game either, it's a debatable one IMO.

Yes we turned it round to lead, but when conceding 1st...we went behind and we gained nothing. Hull and Wigan games without a doubt.

[Davefevs]

20 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

1-0 and 2-1 down.

Unsure we can include the Sunderland game either, it's a debatable one IMO.

Yes we turned it round to lead, but when conceding 1st...we went behind and we gained nothing. Hull and Wigan games without a doubt.

That was kinda my point of one of my earlier responses on this thread…how do you cater for multiple game-states within the same 90?

No issue with Harry raising it, just struggle with the pureness of the maths because of the above.  Not everyone has to worry about things like this, but I do…it’s a curse!

[Mr Popodopolous]

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That was kinda my point of one of my earlier responses on this thread…how do you cater for multiple game-states within the same 90?

No issue with Harry raising it, just struggle with the pureness of the maths because of the above.  Not everyone has to worry about things like this, but I do…it’s a curse!

Agreed on this.

It's subjective isn't it. My personal and perhaps simplistic stance is...

If you score 1st and don't win, it's points dropped.

If you concede 1st and still lose it's a net zero for each.

If you concede 1st and get something, it's a point, or points gained.

If you score 1st and win it's as expected.

A range of scenarios and fairly simplistic granted....statistical analysis probably would shred them a bit.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Swan and Cemetery]

Think fine to discuss ways of improving and clearly there are lots, but sometimes can be a hint of “here are the things NP must fix”, which if achieved, would make us unbeatable. Great to aspire to, but maybe not failure if not fully achieved. Not sure holding leads is super easy and the more you take the lead, statistically likely to be earlier in the game, meaning more time for opponents to come back. Overall, improving our defending does seem like a logical area for the whole team to be working on, including maintaining attacking intent, but very difficult when your opponents know they have to score and throw on attacking subs etc. Trick is probably to build two goal leads, which think we’ve done 3 times this season and won all? Also not easy. 

[spudski]

13 minutes ago, The Swan and Cemetery said:

Think fine to discuss ways of improving and clearly there are lots, but sometimes can be a hint of “here are the things NP must fix”, which if achieved, would make us unbeatable. Great to aspire to, but maybe not failure if not fully achieved. Not sure holding leads is super easy and the more you take the lead, statistically likely to be earlier in the game, meaning more time for opponents to come back. Overall, improving our defending does seem like a logical area for the whole team to be working on, including maintaining attacking intent, but very difficult when your opponents know they have to score and throw on attacking subs etc. Trick is probably to build two goal leads, which think we’ve done 3 times this season and won all? Also not easy. 

In this instance, the subject is losing games from winning positions.

We topped the league for that last season. 21 points dropped.

And we already top the league for the same thing this season...just a few games in.

So granted...as you say...certain things are easier said than done...and if it was happening to every other team, your logic makes sense.

However...as NP pointed out at the beginning of August in an interview...this ' habit' is happening way too often.

So it's very much a subject that needs to be addressed.

As you say...nothing is easy...but to become just average at losing winning starts would be a big step in the right direction.

 

[BCFC1959]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Very true. So we’ve gained 1 point from a losing position this season and lost 10 points from a winning position. 

Referring back to your original post. Agree we have lost far too many points from winning positions - that's a given. Whilst tactics can mitigate errors it seems that for whatever reason there are too many individual errors and bad decision making. Management and players need to take a collective responsiblity here and no doubt this is dicusssed/debated regularly within the club. Reading between the lines I think this is what you have been referring to and there is no reason that this cannot be debated as you have suggested. Not sure why other posters think that this may mean you have a hidden agenda. This forum is all about opinions and on occasion we need to agree to disagree.  

[The Swan and Cemetery]

4 minutes ago, spudski said:

In this instance, the subject is losing games from winning positions.

We topped the league for that last season. 21 points dropped.

And we already top the league for the same thing this season...just a few games in.

So granted...as you say...certain things are easier said than done...and if it was happening to every other team, your logic makes sense.

However...as NP pointed out at the beginning of August in an interview...this ' habit' is happening way too often.

So it's very much a subject that needs to be addressed.

As you say...nothing is easy...but to become just average at losing winning starts would be a big step in the right direction.

 

Think it would be a step towards likely promotion, which would be great. There’s something we’re very good at, which is to some extent the cause of what we’re less good at, ie you can’t be good or average at defending leads if you don’t take the lead, which presumably we’re above average at. 

[spudski]

16 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

You think you are saying anything new ?  We have the same players bar Naismith . I would say it is exceptional what they are doing with the same players 

I'm not quite understanding what you mean. Exceptional at what? We are still losing points after leading games with the same players?

6 minutes ago, The Swan and Cemetery said:

Think it would be a step towards likely promotion, which would be great. There’s something we’re very good at, which is to some extent the cause of what we’re less good at, ie you can’t be good or average at defending leads if you don’t take the lead, which presumably we’re above average at. 

You can see for yourself from this link...https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/punktenachfuehrung/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2021&spiele=alle

[Davefevs]

17 minutes ago, spudski said:

In this instance, the subject is losing games from winning positions.

We topped the league for that last season. 21 points dropped.

And we already top the league for the same thing this season...just a few games in.

So granted...as you say...certain things are easier said than done...and if it was happening to every other team, your logic makes sense.

However...as NP pointed out at the beginning of August in an interview...this ' habit' is happening way too often.

So it's very much a subject that needs to be addressed.

As you say...nothing is easy...but to become just average at losing winning starts would be a big step in the right direction.

 

The remedy is to stop taking the lead

Seriously though, a few more boring, potentially meaningless stats (league only):

Average Minutes Winning: 44

Average Minutes Drawing: 35

Average Minutes Losing: 11

I don’t include injury time, nor do proper sites either in the main.

I’m generally more comfortable with us taking the lead than trying to chase from being a goal time.  Over the years we get sucked into falling for shithousery and ended up playing an unfamiliar game.  We did of course have some great wind from behind, but although we buck the trend for “teams that score first, win more often”, at least it’s giving us a chance.

We’ve scored in every game this season too.

[The Swan and Cemetery]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The remedy is to stop taking the lead

Seriously though, a few more boring, potentially meaningless stats (league only):

Average Minutes Winning: 44

Average Minutes Drawing: 35

Average Minutes Losing: 11

I don’t include injury time, nor do proper sites either in the main.

I’m generally more comfortable with us taking the lead than trying to chase from being a goal time.  Over the years we get sucked into falling for shithousery and ended up playing an unfamiliar game.  We did of course have some great wind from behind, but although we buck the trend for “teams that score first, win more often”, at least it’s giving us a chance.

We’ve scored in every game this season too.

See that we’re the only team, along with free scoring PNE, to have played 6 and not been losing at half time in any game (Rotherham same, but only 5 games played). Arguable whether it’s hanging on to leads that’s the challenge vs playing better in the second half… plus the extent to which the two are cause and effect… or maybe they’re the same thing. Continue first half performances and start to draw the second half more often and play offs as a minimum… but those pesky opponents don’t make it easy, damn them. 

[spudski]

11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The remedy is to stop taking the lead

Seriously though, a few more boring, potentially meaningless stats (league only):

Average Minutes Winning: 44

Average Minutes Drawing: 35

Average Minutes Losing: 11

I don’t include injury time, nor do proper sites either in the main.

I’m generally more comfortable with us taking the lead than trying to chase from being a goal time.  Over the years we get sucked into falling for shithousery and ended up playing an unfamiliar game.  We did of course have some great wind from behind, but although we buck the trend for “teams that score first, win more often”, at least it’s giving us a chance.

We’ve scored in every game this season too.

11 minutes...is that all. How frustrating for all concerned.

I think I also heard we haven't won a 3 pm KO this season! Haven't checked. Free stat for ya