20/1 to finish in the play offs

[And Its Smith]

37 points from 17 games needed I reckon.  11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats…seems unlikely but what is life without hope

[pongo88]

8 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

37 points from 17 games needed I reckon.  11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats…seems unlikely but what is life without hope

I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.

[stephenkibby.]

5 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

37 points from 17 games needed I reckon.  11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats…seems unlikely but what is life without hope

4 of our last 5 games are Boro.Watford.Sheff Utd and Burnley. Lets get into the top six sharpish.

[Bris Red]

I Would still happily take top 10 at this point…

[mozo]

3 minutes ago, Bris Red said:

I Would still happily take top 10 at this point…

Top half for me would be a great effort and leave me wondering of next season we could push on.

[AppyDAZE]

No

[steveybadger]

No relegation, progress then next season challenge. That’s how we did second half of the seasons pre promotion in 07 and 15

[GrahamC]

Not a chance.

Avoid the bottom six & start planning for next season.

[And Its Smith]

2 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Not a chance.

Avoid the bottom six & start planning for next season.

There is a chance. A 20/1 chance!

[Kodjias Wrist]

Us football fans can be fickle. 2 consecutive defeats its doom and gloom and 2 consecutive wins its "up the football league we go!", but we could easily finish top 10. As silly as it sounds 7 points seperate 5th from 16th.

[steviestevieneville]

Way to much traffic in front of us. Hopefully we keep the momentum going , get rid of the rest of the dead wood in the summer . Unfortunately lose scotty but it’s going to happen . Nige got possibly 3-5 m to spend from the £45m we sold Alex for , to Bayern Munich .

Edited February 4, 2023 by steviestevieneville

[Rocking Red Cyril]

28 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

There is a chance. A 20/1 chance!

50/1 before today's game. Should of bet this morning 

[joe jordans teeth]

31 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

There is a chance. A 20/1 chance!

Got to be init to win it is the saying right 

[W-S-M Seagull]

I think a top 10 finish is certainly achievable. Play offs are a bit of a reach.

But there does seem to always be one team that makes a late run for them so why can't it be us? 

[RedinSpain]

Top 10 would be just fine and a very encouraging step forward in readiness for next season.

37 points from 17 games would be a level of form between Burnley and Sheff Utd for the rest of the season.

As much as we would like it, surely that's rather too much of an ask for the current squad?

[kit]

There's a lot of inconsistent teams in the play off mix currently and the current points total is slightly below par at the moment to be in the play off spots which is probably why there are so many teams in the mix right now. 

It relies on 4 teams not picking up their form to make the target points total too high to haul back. It also relies on us keeping the entire current back 4 injury free as I don't think we have alternatives to keep a solid back line playing and winning consistently every week. Also I think Matty James could be added to that has he keeps our shape so well, he has not been immune from injuries.

Scott is 1 booking away from a 2 match ban and could conceivably pick up enough for a further 3 matches which would be a big miss.

I think if luck is on our side we could go on the sort of run required but it would be asking a lot from us as so far we've had a mini run at the start of the season and the run we've had now in January. 

At the moment we're on the verge as lose to Norwich and it looks too big a task again, but beat them and we edge that bit closer to making it seem really possible and our odds probably drop a little further. 

[iamalagerdrinker]

Just enjoy the ride 

[INCRED]

There always seems to be one team that makes a late push and comes from nowhere, we would need a lot of luck with injuries and the majority of the team retaining the form they have shown as well as the new players hitting the ground running 

Its been done before but the odds are stacked against us - unless the refs start handing out Pens to us like confetti

[The Bard]

It's certainly a possibility but we would have to have top 2 form to do it and I doubt we're quite there yet.  I felt at the beginning of the season that position didn't really matter unless you're top 6 or bottom 3. A positive win/loss ratio, positive goal difference and 65 points would show clear improvement, make us more attractive to potential signings and raise expectations without people getting too carried away.

[mozo]

2 minutes ago, INCRED said:

There always seems to be one team that makes a late push and comes from nowhere, we would need a lot of luck with injuries and the majority of the team retaining the form they have shown as well as the new players hitting the ground running 

Its been done before but the odds are stacked against us - unless the refs start handing out Pens to us like confetti

Yeah it's probably achievable if we become the luckiest team in the league.

If, however, we beat both Norwich and Wigan in the next 10 days, then we may as well all get a bit excited ahead of a tough test away at Sunderland.

Two quick wins now could see us in touch with the top 6.

I really don't expect us to win the next two games though. Norwich has scored 4 goals in each of their past 2 away games!

[Super]

Just out of interest what are the odds on us to be relegated? Shorter than 20-1?

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Super

[weepywall]

15 minutes ago, Super said:

Just out of interest what are the odds on us to be relegated? Shorter than 20-1?

 

 

 

22/1 I've seen.

[AppyDAZE]

12 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

Realism.

[Portland Bill]

12 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

37 points from 17 games needed I reckon.  11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats…seems unlikely but what is life without hope

I think it’s probable, but also  winning the FA cup could mess the league form up

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

20/1 is miserly odds by the bookies but I suppose its better than no chance, which is what we have of making the play offs. Top 10 I might buy but the play offs? We'd have to leapfrog 11 teams just to finish 6th and not all those 11 teams are going to have a poor run for the next 17 games. I'm usually a half full rather than a half empty man but thus one is beyond my optimism. 

[cidercity1987]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Yeah it's probably achievable if we become the luckiest team in the league.

If, however, we beat both Norwich and Wigan in the next 10 days, then we may as well all get a bit excited ahead of a tough test away at Sunderland.

Two quick wins now could see us in touch with the top 6.

I really don't expect us to win the next two games though. Norwich has scored 4 goals in each of their past 2 away games!

Win those 3 games for 45 points howver unlikely, play off teams will be on about 49 points and then yes we would be in the conversion. Would need an unbelievable run over the next 10 or so games as our run in is extremely hard

[ExiledAjax]

Fivethirtyeight give us a 5% chance of relegation (ie 20/1), and a 3% chance of making the playoffs (ie about 33/1).

Neither of these things will happen.

[petehinton]

We’ll know where we really are after these block of games 

[cheddarwedlocker]

**** it were going on a wembley tour pack your bags and your zider

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, petehinton said:

We’ll know where we really are after these block of games 

That's where we need to get our points I guess. The final 6 games of the season are Boro, Watford, Sheff Utd, Burnley, QPR and Rotherham. We're pretty unlikely to get 2 points per game over those final 6.

It's why it's so unlikely we're going to make playoffs. Honestly we could be 8th going into those final 6 games and we'll fade. We just aren't yet at the level of the top teams in this division.

[Super]

1 hour ago, weepywall said:

22/1 I've seen.

So as likely to get into playoffs as relegated then

[Northern Red]

1 minute ago, Super said:

So as likely to get into playoffs as relegated then

As it stands we're 8 points from the playoffs and 9 from the bottom 3, so it's probably about right.

[ExiledAjax]

20 minutes ago, Super said:

So as likely to get into playoffs as relegated then

But actually likely to do neither.

[Open End Numb Legs]

Don't forget we are due about 25 penalties !!

Could make the difference.

Realistically though, I would be happy just to be on the top half and not have the stress of falling into trouble. We can relax and enjoy the football then.

[Davefevs]

 

[Elruliri]

What's the odds of a City v Luton final?

They would be mad as hatters if one of their former players scored the winner against them.

 

 

 

 

[TheReds]

Cannot see us finishing close to the top 6 purely on the run in, I agree with the post regarding our run in and probably fading. We could gain some serious points in the next 10/11 games if we stay consistent or even improve a little, but the run in is brutal and we will definitely be dropping points there.

I'd be over the moon to finish 12th, and get a decent amount of points in the next 5/6 games and hopefully pull right away from any relegation worry. Get safe, and also give a few more youngsters some more experience which will go a long way for the future.

Ps - I would love to see us beat the odds, just cannot see it happening, especially with another few FA cup games on the way.....

[Packman]

Before yesterday's games I got 40/1 to finish in the top 6 and 33/1 for rovers to get relegated. My £5 bet would pay me £6970 or something like that, you never know

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mozo]

3 hours ago, petehinton said:

We’ll know where we really are after these block of games 

It's the perfect run of games. Beat Wigan, Hull, Cardiff (as usual) and Blackpool, and that's 2 ppg right there.

That will require consistently high performances though, which we were unable to manage in 2022, but have achieved so far this year.

[E.J.Thribb]

I’ll happily take a top half finish. If we finish closer to the play offs or just miss out I’d be ecstatic  

In the meantime…..WE ARE GOING UP SAY WE ARE GOING UP

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Elruliri said:

What's the odds of a City v Luton final?

They would be mad as hatters if one of their former players scored the winner against them.

 

 

 

 

I assume you mean Kal Naismith….(Cornick is cup-tied)

[mozo]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I assume you mean Kal Naismith….(Cornick is cup-tied)

Was it play off final?

[ray savino]

Steady on everybody! A month ago we were nailed on for relegation after Boxing Day defeat to WBA, now play-off possibilities. To be fair it’s nice there’s a bit more positivity around and nothing is impossible, but I do think that it is pretty improbable!

After the ups and downs of the last few seasons I would be seriously happy if we could end up in the top ten, consistent signs of good results and performances, and plans in place to action over the pre-season to make us seriously competitive next season, to account for with or without Alex Scott’s presence in our team. That’s not a touch of the complacent “it’ll do” attitude. I certainly think we should approach every game with a play-off chasing attitude, aim high, etc., but just keeping my supporters feet on the ground after a few good and well deserved results.

Meanwhile I’ve felt more entertained by the action at Ashton Gate, can’t wait for matches again and hope it continues till the end of this season... and crowd and team spirit continues to grow together ready for next season.

[mozo]

When was the last time we had a late surge of form to get us in contention?

I remember with LJ it was always a late collapse, but don't recall many seasons where we did the opposite?

[TonyTonyTony]

Save your tenner - no chance. More like 50-1 odds. Anyone in the current top 10 can still make it in but we are too far behind and as others have said we have to play the better teams at the end.

Reckon we will end up with 60-65 points. +10/15 on last year which will be good and put us in the middle of the table.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 hours ago, mozo said:

When was the last time we had a late surge of form to get us in contention?

I remember with LJ it was always a late collapse, but don't recall many seasons where we did the opposite?

Sort of under Millen in 2010 although it sort if fizzled out.

Could argue under GJ in 2006, Cotts in 2014 albeit in League One we were pushing towards.

[Slack]

3 hours ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Save your tenner - no chance. More like 50-1 odds. Anyone in the current top 10 can still make it in but we are too far behind and as others have said we have to play the better teams at the end.

Reckon we will end up with 60-65 points. +10/15 on last year which will be good and put us in the middle of the table.

IF we win all remaining matches then surely we could in 'theory' do it ... Now not saying it's do-able BUT ... It is one of a million possibilities .. wierder things have happened... 

 

[Lanterne Rouge]

13 minutes ago, Slack said:

IF we win all remaining matches then surely we could in 'theory' do it ... Now not saying it's do-able BUT ... It is one of a million possibilities .. wierder things have happened... 

 

They certainly have. I seem to recall a club getting relegated out of the league due to three improbable results all coming to pass after not being in the bottom two all season. They had even celebrated survival the week before.

Funny old game innit Saint?

[cityexile]

Blackburn v Wigan tonight.

I immediately thought ‘want Blackburn to win’ cos bottom three. Not Wigan cos top six.

We are improving and battling away. Will take mid table all day long.

[Wrongagain]

On 05/02/2023 at 09:24, INCRED said:

 

Its been done before but the odds are stacked against us - unless the refs start handing out Pens to us like confetti

When is Stroud due to appear with us again? Inconsistent enough to turn the tide? 

[eardun]

10 hours ago, mozo said:

When was the last time we had a late surge of form to get us in contention?

I remember with LJ it was always a late collapse, but don't recall many seasons where we did the opposite?

The only season that comes to mind for me is 1987-88. Terry Cooper was sacked in March and Joe Jordan then took us into the playoffs (and, unfortunately, David Kelly).

[redkev]

I think if we do happen to beat Narrwich & Wigan we would be on a roll and there would be a few teams looking over there shoulders with us creeping up behind - HOWEVER.

City very rarely if at all win Saturday & midweek home games in a row 

Also Pukki is the new Steve Bull / David Connelly - for all you young uns Bull & Connelly just used to love scoring against us nearly always condemning us to defeat - pukki is very much the same and I must admit I do fear him saturday

[Sturny]

Not even thinking about playoffs tbh, just enjoying watching us play for the first time in a while 

[mozo]

1 hour ago, Slack said:

IF we win all remaining matches then surely we could in 'theory' do it ... Now not saying it's do-able BUT ... It is one of a million possibilities .. wierder things have happened... 

 

Don't need to win all the games.

Win 11, draw 4, lose 2 

Win all the games against other teams vying for top 6. Score plenty of goals to boost the goal difference. 

 

[TonyTonyTony]

6 minutes ago, mozo said:

Don't need to win all the games.

Win 11, draw 4, lose 2 

Win all the games against other teams vying for top 6. Score plenty of goals to boost the goal difference. 

 

Not much then

[mozo]

12 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Not much then

Nah. We may as well do the 11 wins first so that we can chill for the last 6 games. No problemo.

[Slack]

34 minutes ago, mozo said:

Don't need to win all the games.

Win 11, draw 4, lose 2 

Win all the games against other teams vying for top 6. Score plenty of goals to boost the goal difference. 

 

Out of interest what's the odds on winning every game until end of the season... Surely worth £1

[mozo]

41 minutes ago, Slack said:

Out of interest what's the odds on winning every game until end of the season... Surely worth £1

I'll tell you what, let's get as many forum users as we can to all send me £1 for a City to win every game bet, and I'll go and put the bet on... 

[The Bard]

2 hours ago, cityexile said:

Blackburn v Wigan tonight.

I immediately thought ‘want Blackburn to win’ cos bottom three. Not Wigan cos top six.

We are improving and battling away. Will take mid table all day long.

I always think draw as 2 points are gained by rivals rather than 3.

[Ian M]

The longer this unbeaten run goes on, the more confident our squad gets and the less difficult that run in becomes. If (and it’s still a big if) we had put ourselves in the picture for the play-offs ahead of those final 6 games, we would go into them as the form side in the division and may even be the favourites to win

[mozo]

8 hours ago, Ian M said:

The longer this unbeaten run goes on, the more confident our squad gets and the less difficult that run in becomes. If (and it’s still a big if) we had put ourselves in the picture for the play-offs ahead of those final 6 games, we would go into them as the form side in the division and may even be the favourites to win

Norwich on Saturday will be a good yardstick and this thread might disappear from sight if we get stuffed!

[shelts]

Until it’s impossible it’s still possible.  As long as we keep looking upwards and keep trying to improve  then we can enjoy the rest of the season . What is the magic mark for safety this season ?

[ExiledAjax]

23 minutes ago, shelts said:

Until it’s impossible it’s still possible.  As long as we keep looking upwards and keep trying to improve  then we can enjoy the rest of the season . What is the magic mark for safety this season ?

To be safe the minimum you need (without going too far down the list of rules deciding league position) is equal points and better goal difference than the team in 22nd.

Currently that team is Huddersfield and they have 27 points from 28 and GD of -10. So if they stay at that rate they'll end on 44 points and GD of about -19. So 44 points and GD of -18 or better would see you safe if current form continues. 

Now Huddersfield'd current form probably won't continue precisely, so maybe add a couple of points and say that 46 should get you safe. Are we going to get 10 points from the last 17 games? Almost certainly.

The two teams below them have played equal or more games, so they if they continue their form they will also go down.

Edited February 7, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[headhunter]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Norwich on Saturday will be a good yardstick and this thread might disappear from sight if we get stuffed!

I agree with this.

68 points [Leicester under Pearson 2013/14] is the lowest total for 6th with the average being 73. Take the high side of mid-point at 71 then from the 17 fixtures remaining it needs to go something like this 11-2-4 = 35 points + what we have = 71.

Doable? Pearson doesn't even need to match what he did at Leicester 2014/15 with the final 17 games yielding 10-6-1 as they romped away with the title.

[mozo]

37 minutes ago, shelts said:

Until it’s impossible it’s still possible.  As long as we keep looking upwards and keep trying to improve  then we can enjoy the rest of the season . What is the magic mark for safety this season ?

Too early to say but I'll stick with the magic 50 for now until that seems  unlikely.

Even with a major wobble I'm confident we'll get at least 1ppg, which would leave us on 53.

For us to have a chance of play offs, beating both Norwich and Sunderland this month is almost necessary. 

[cidered abroad]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Norwich on Saturday will be a good yardstick and this thread might disappear from sight if we get stuffed!

Especially as Norwich have a superb away record over City at Ashton Gate going back to 1955.

[mozo]

Okay, I'm thinking this through way too much (IT WON'T HAPPEN!) But...

Watford's playoff place is up for grabs. We need to outperform and catch them.

Fortunately, winning our game in hand would bring us within 6 points of them, and our goal difference is only 3 fewer than theirs. We also play them in April which in this scenario could be a huge 6 pointer.

Of course we also need to outperform the chasing pack, such as Norwich and Sunderland, both of whom we play (must beat) in February, also, notably Blackburn who have been up there all season.

Well... Watford play Blackburn next, and a draw might suit us (supposing we get on a winning streak - the hard part).

Watford actually then play Burnley, West Brom and Shef Utd so they're up against it this month.

Blackburn play West Brom after Watford before their fixtures get easier.

So, the path to contention is clear; win our next 3 games, hope the chasing pack drop points in the best way in these crucial fixtures, and at that point we're in the race with a good run of fixtures to come in March.

Just beating Norwich sounds hard enough mind... 

Edited February 7, 2023 by mozo

[Nathandao]

Caught the odds after the West Brom cup game. Fairly confident of a top half finish so that bet covers me and anything else is just a bonus.

[cidered abroad]

24 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Especially as Norwich have a superb away record over City at Ashton Gate going back to 1955.

@mozo

Their record at City is Won 8, Drawn 3, Lost 4.

Oh yes another stat that means we, the Robins lag well behind the Canaries in that they have won promotion to First/Premier a staggering 6/7 times since 1945 and how many times have Bristol City achieved it?

[Wanderingred]

23 hours ago, mozo said:

When was the last time we had a late surge of form to get us in contention?

I remember with LJ it was always a late collapse, but don't recall many seasons where we did the opposite?

I love these kind of questions! Here goes!

In February 2006, after a 1-0 home defeat to Brentford, we sat 22nd in the League 1 table with 35 points from 32 games. 
 

We then won 9, Drew 2 and lost only 1 of our next 12 games to put us in contention for a playoff place with two games to go. We only Drew with Swindon, then lost to champions Southend so we missed out eventually but I think that’s the biggest end of season turnaround I can remember.

We also made a mad dash to the playoffs in 1997 after replacing Joe Jordan with John Ward… six straight wins taking us from around 10th-11th to the playoffs.