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20/1 to finish in the play offs


And Its Smith

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I’m a big fan of picking up points / staying unbeaten to keep things ticking over, but…the way to move up the table in sequences of wins. We’ve managed to back up a win with another win 3 times this season. If we could somehow manage to make this 4 wins on the spin, ie. win our next 2, the likelihood is that 7 points gap will be more like 4 or 5.

 

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps yeah.

Not sure I fancy us to win at Sunderland but I could certainly see us getting 4 from 2, ie win Wednesday and draw Saturday. Then perhaps win the next two League games v Hull and Cardiff is it. That said if we are counter attacking that in turn helps us in the road at a play-off rival.

Plus think the underlying numbers underpinning our performances though strong aren't too 6 yet so that's another secondary consideration- will lesser underlying numbers than a typical play-off side catch up with results again.

One game at a time anyway for me- see where it takes us and very much enjoying it atm!

When I outlined our path to glory earlier in the thread (pre-Norwich), it was predicated on us having to win our next three games.

One game gone and a win in the bag, Wigan next.

But yep that Sunderland game looks really tricky and really is crucial to us catching ground.

We don't need to win it pretty. Any kind of wins will do now. But we need wins.

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13 hours ago, mozo said:

 

When I outlined our path to glory earlier in the thread (pre-Norwich), it was predicated on us having to win our next three games.

One game gone and a win in the bag, Wigan next.

But yep that Sunderland game looks really tricky and really is crucial to us catching ground.

We don't need to win it pretty. Any kind of wins will do now. But we need wins.

Sunderland's away record is better than their home record.

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6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Watford winning at Burnley is a massive coupon buster!

Millwall losing is welcome but others not so much- problem is that Millwall v Luton from December still needs rescheduling so a game in hand on either it isn't.

?boom

8 points off 6th

2 games in hand

Cheers Burnley

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This is one time i'd be very happy to be wrong - but it's not happening.

We've gone on a lovely (much needed) run in the league - 3 wins 3 draws since last game of December.

But I'm not fooled by the league table, string some results together at the bottom and you can see quick progress up the table - but that slows down the higher you get as everyone around you is picking up points. It's VERY hard to make up an 8 point difference to the team in 6th whilst also overtaking all 8 teams in between us and them. 

For me the good run has also been in part due to the way the fixture list ebbs and flows - All teams not in either the playoffs or bottom 3.

The most notable wins vs Norwich home (8th in league and 9th in form table) and Preston away (14th in league and 17th in form table) - as good as they were, not exactly 'statement wins'.

The next 6/7 games sees us playing teams fighting for lives or in top 6 (except Hull) - so will be a tougher test in a way.

I think as the fixtures even themselves out we'll be nicely placed upper mid table. 

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24 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

But I'm not fooled by the league table, string some results together at the bottom and you can see quick progress up the table - but that slows down the higher you get as everyone around you is picking up points. It's VERY hard to make up an 8 point difference to the team in 6th whilst also overtaking all 8 teams in between us and them. 

This guy gets it.

It's those teams in between us and the team in 6th that people forget about. We have to not only be better (ie have a better points per game rate) than the team in 6th, but also better than every team between us and that team in 6th. 

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12 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

?boom

8 points off 6th

2 games in hand

Cheers Burnley

The trouble is Millwall are 1 point off with 2 games in hand, Blackburn 2 points, WB 3 points both with 2 games in hand, we also have a horrendous run nearer the end of the season. I'd be amazed if we finish within 6 points of 6th, would love to be wrong but just cannot see it as we would need so many things to align. Just hoping for some more decent, consistent performances and a few youngsters get given some League experience when we are totally safe, and a Cup Final...

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2 hours ago, johnbytheriver said:

Ifs,buts,and maybe's,if my auntie had balls,she would be my uncle!

Surely that just makes your auntie a hermaphrodite?! You should really be more sensitive to her condition, bless her! 

25 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

This guy gets it.

It's those teams in between us and the team in 6th that people forget about. We have to not only be better (ie have a better points per game rate) than the team in 6th, but also better than every team between us and that team in 6th. 

But, but, but... those sides aren't that many points above us so across the remainder of the season we don't have to be that much better ppg. Really, it's about winning the six-pointers which makes this such a difficult task. Norwich is ticked off which brings them within reach (we potentially only need one more win than them from now on). Sunderland will be must win, as will Watford in April. 

It's nice to dream!

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4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

What are we thinking for Watford v West Brom- would we rather home win, draw or away win?

Table as it stands. I'd say top six looks beyond us, top half or perhaps with some luck top 10 (ie 10th) more realistic as a goal.

Screenshot_20230220-204032_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3e1adff8665273e96eb19dad93a50eca.jpg

Even I'm not entertaining the idea of a playoff push now :fear:

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5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

What are we thinking for Watford v West Brom- would we rather home win, draw or away win?

Table as it stands. I'd say top six looks beyond us, top half or perhaps with some luck top 10 (ie 10th) more realistic as a goal.

Screenshot_20230220-204032_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3e1adff8665273e96eb19dad93a50eca.jpg

West Brom win would seem to be the best result for us. We have played them twice in the league already and a win now might revive their own promotion hopes, whereas a loss for Watford puts them at risk from everyone behind, even including us.

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2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Even I'm not entertaining the idea of a playoff push now :fear:

To stand any chance of making the playoffs, we would have to win pretty much every match between now and playing Middlesbrough, because there don’t appear to be many wins likely in April. So the playoffs are not impossible but highly unlikely. And certainly more than 20/1.

However, if we were to fail to reach the playoffs by 3 points or less, that first game refereeing debacle at Hull becomes even more important.

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