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20/1 to finish in the play offs

And Its Smith

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Ian M

Ian M

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The longer this unbeaten run goes on, the more confident our squad gets and the less difficult that run in becomes. If (and it’s still a big if) we had put ourselves in the picture for the play-offs ahead of those final 6 games, we would go into them as the form side in the division and may even be the favourites to win ?

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mozo

mozo

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8 hours ago, Ian M said:

The longer this unbeaten run goes on, the more confident our squad gets and the less difficult that run in becomes. If (and it’s still a big if) we had put ourselves in the picture for the play-offs ahead of those final 6 games, we would go into them as the form side in the division and may even be the favourites to win ?

Norwich on Saturday will be a good yardstick and this thread might disappear from sight if we get stuffed!

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ExiledAjax

ExiledAjax

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23 minutes ago, shelts said:

Until it’s impossible it’s still possible.  As long as we keep looking upwards and keep trying to improve  then we can enjoy the rest of the season . What is the magic mark for safety this season ?

To be safe the minimum you need (without going too far down the list of rules deciding league position) is equal points and better goal difference than the team in 22nd.

Currently that team is Huddersfield and they have 27 points from 28 and GD of -10. So if they stay at that rate they'll end on 44 points and GD of about -19. So 44 points and GD of -18 or better would see you safe if current form continues. 

Now Huddersfield'd current form probably won't continue precisely, so maybe add a couple of points and say that 46 should get you safe. Are we going to get 10 points from the last 17 games? Almost certainly.

The two teams below them have played equal or more games, so they if they continue their form they will also go down.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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headhunter

headhunter

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1 hour ago, mozo said:

Norwich on Saturday will be a good yardstick and this thread might disappear from sight if we get stuffed!

I agree with this.

68 points [Leicester under Pearson 2013/14] is the lowest total for 6th with the average being 73. Take the high side of mid-point at 71 then from the 17 fixtures remaining it needs to go something like this 11-2-4 = 35 points + what we have = 71.

Doable? Pearson doesn't even need to match what he did at Leicester 2014/15 with the final 17 games yielding 10-6-1 as they romped away with the title.

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mozo

mozo

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37 minutes ago, shelts said:

Until it’s impossible it’s still possible.  As long as we keep looking upwards and keep trying to improve  then we can enjoy the rest of the season . What is the magic mark for safety this season ?

Too early to say but I'll stick with the magic 50 for now until that seems  unlikely.

Even with a major wobble I'm confident we'll get at least 1ppg, which would leave us on 53.

For us to have a chance of play offs, beating both Norwich and Sunderland this month is almost necessary. 

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mozo

mozo

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Okay, I'm thinking this through way too much (IT WON'T HAPPEN!) But...

Watford's playoff place is up for grabs. We need to outperform and catch them.

Fortunately, winning our game in hand would bring us within 6 points of them, and our goal difference is only 3 fewer than theirs. We also play them in April which in this scenario could be a huge 6 pointer.

Of course we also need to outperform the chasing pack, such as Norwich and Sunderland, both of whom we play (must beat) in February, also, notably Blackburn who have been up there all season.

Well... Watford play Blackburn next, and a draw might suit us (supposing we get on a winning streak - the hard part).

Watford actually then play Burnley, West Brom and Shef Utd so they're up against it this month.

Blackburn play West Brom after Watford before their fixtures get easier.

So, the path to contention is clear; win our next 3 games, hope the chasing pack drop points in the best way in these crucial fixtures, and at that point we're in the race with a good run of fixtures to come in March.

Just beating Norwich sounds hard enough mind... ?

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cidered abroad

cidered abroad

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24 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Especially as Norwich have a superb away record over City at Ashton Gate going back to 1955.

@mozo

Their record at City is Won 8, Drawn 3, Lost 4.

Oh yes another stat that means we, the Robins lag well behind the Canaries in that they have won promotion to First/Premier a staggering 6/7 times since 1945 and how many times have Bristol City achieved it?

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Wanderingred

Wanderingred

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23 hours ago, mozo said:

When was the last time we had a late surge of form to get us in contention?

I remember with LJ it was always a late collapse, but don't recall many seasons where we did the opposite?

I love these kind of questions! Here goes!

In February 2006, after a 1-0 home defeat to Brentford, we sat 22nd in the League 1 table with 35 points from 32 games. 
 

We then won 9, Drew 2 and lost only 1 of our next 12 games to put us in contention for a playoff place with two games to go. We only Drew with Swindon, then lost to champions Southend so we missed out eventually but I think that’s the biggest end of season turnaround I can remember.

We also made a mad dash to the playoffs in 1997 after replacing Joe Jordan with John Ward… six straight wins taking us from around 10th-11th to the playoffs. 

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mozo

mozo

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3 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

I love these kind of questions! Here goes!

In February 2006, after a 1-0 home defeat to Brentford, we sat 22nd in the League 1 table with 35 points from 32 games. 
 

We then won 9, Drew 2 and lost only 1 of our next 12 games to put us in contention for a playoff place with two games to go. We only Drew with Swindon, then lost to champions Southend so we missed out eventually but I think that’s the biggest end of season turnaround I can remember.

We also made a mad dash to the playoffs in 1997 after replacing Joe Jordan with John Ward… six straight wins taking us from around 10th-11th to the playoffs. 

Great answer!

Was 2006 Gary Johnson's second season?

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GrahamC

GrahamC

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5 hours ago, mozo said:

Ah, so we had endured the 8 or 9 consecutive defeats, the grenades had been launched, and GJ finally got the dressing room on side and we went on a run.

Exactly this.

Not a “proper” manager though, he got promoted in his first full season, then playoff final in his second full one..

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mozo

mozo

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37 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Exactly this.

Not a “proper” manager though, he got promoted in his first full season, then playoff final in his second full one..

I really hope I don't start a debate now, but I'm always surprised when people talk disrespectfully about Gary and Lee Johnson. They both led City to something special in their time here, and whilst they weren't perfect (what manager is?!), they at the very least deserve respect.

 

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mozo

mozo

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On 07/02/2023 at 09:39, mozo said:

Well... Watford play Blackburn next, and a draw might suit us (supposing we get on a winning streak - the hard 

...

Just beating Norwich sounds hard enough mind... ?

We won...

Watford drew...

Mission Impossible is on track!

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mozo

mozo

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3 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I'm not so concerned about Watford or Blackburn. It's Millwall and Luton that we might not yet be on a level with 

I'm not now including them in my thinking. Only teams from 6th and down are of interest atm...

Sunderland we play in a week. And Watford have tough games...

In literally 7 days, we could be right in the mix.

.

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Cornick

Cornick

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Seems likely that by the time we play  Burnley and Sheffield U their seasons will already be all but over, secure in 1st and 2nd place respectively. 

Rather than writing those games off as some seem to be doing, surely it's fair to think we've been smiled on by Lady Luck, and that it's the very best time of the season to stand a chance of getting points from them.

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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Posted (edited)

Hmm, I'm still thinking no unfortunately. Yet to catch up with the last 2-3 post and pre game stuff but.

It's a major ask. After the round of fixtures on and just after Boxing Day we were 8 points off the play9ffs. 24 games (6th place Millwall had played 23). 

After a League only run of 12 pts from 6 games, GD +4 the gap is 7 pts. In effect we've had top two or three PPG and still only cut the gap by one point although unlike after Boxing Day it is us with the game in hand as opposed to the game more.

Doubt it though- top 2 are gone, Middlesbrough look strong, very strong, WBA dip or slump- time will tell, Sunderland look strong albeit Simms out Geldhardt in plus crucially Stewart out, hmm. Hull don't lose often under Rosenior although we could be closing on them, Millwall have a game in hand and given they play Luton one or both may benefit.

Blackburn, Norwich, Watford and Preston all stalling however.

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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10 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hmm, I'm still thinking no unfortunately. Yet to catch up with the last 2-3 post and pre game stuff but.

It's a major ask. After the round of fixtures on and just after Boxing Day we were 8 points off the play9ffs. 24 games (6th place Millwall had played 23). 

After a League only run of 12 pts from 6 games, GD +4 the gap is 7 pts. In effect we've had top two or three PPG and still only cut the gap by one point although unlike after Boxing Day it is us with the game in hand as opposed to the game more.

Doubt it though- top 2 are gone, Middlesbrough look strong, very strong, WBA dip or slump- time will tell, Sunderland look strong albeit Simms out Geldhardt in plus crucially Stewart out, hmm. Hull don't lose often under Rosenior although we could be closing on them, Millwall have a game in hand and given they play Luton one or both may benefit.

Blackburn, Norwich, Watford and Preston all stalling however.

I’m a big fan of picking up points / staying unbeaten to keep things ticking over, but…the way to move up the table in sequences of wins. We’ve managed to back up a win with another win 3 times this season. If we could somehow manage to make this 4 wins on the spin, ie. win our next 2, the likelihood is that 7 points gap will be more like 4 or 5.

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’m a big fan of picking up points / staying unbeaten to keep things ticking over, but…the way to move up the table in sequences of wins. We’ve managed to back up a win with another win 3 times this season. If we could somehow manage to make this 4 wins on the spin, ie. win our next 2, the likelihood is that 7 points gap will be more like 4 or 5.

Perhaps yeah.

Not sure I fancy us to win at Sunderland but I could certainly see us getting 4 from 2, ie win Wednesday and draw Saturday. Then perhaps win the next two League games v Hull and Cardiff is it. That said if we are counter attacking that in turn helps us in the road at a play-off rival.

Plus think the underlying numbers underpinning our performances though strong aren't too 6 yet so that's another secondary consideration- will lesser underlying numbers than a typical play-off side catch up with results again.

One game at a time anyway for me- see where it takes us and very much enjoying it atm!

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Plus think the underlying numbers underpinning our performances though strong aren't too 6 yet so that's another secondary consideration

Totally agree.

It’s a shame we didn’t get a few more points we deserved earlier this season.  We could easily be 3,4,5 points better off.

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Malago

Malago

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The run against the bottom four clubs plus Hull and Reading are crucial.  
The other thing to bear in mind is we play Burnley and Sheff Utd very late in the season, when both may well already be promoted.  Whilst games against already relegated sides are dangerous, already promoted sides tend to turn up to their remaining games with the sun tan oil and deck chairs at the ready.  

 

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Totally agree.

It’s a shame we didn’t get a few more points we deserved earlier this season.  We could easily be 3,4,5 points better off.

The 3 home games v Sheffield United, Watford and Stoke certainly spring to mind for me.

1 point and 1 goal was all we got...merited 5-7 pts I thought.

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