Recruitment : Nige v LJ

[Merrick's Marvels]

12 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Why such an emphasis on finding a “gem” and that being the measure of success?  What qualifies as a gem?

As @cidercity1987 states, the models are completely different, the dynamics of the markets are completely different.

I stand to be corrected but the title "Nige v LJ" might be a bit misleading as I think the gist of the OP's question might be - now that the owner has turned the taps off, how does Nige recruit the quality necessary to get us promoted? 

Any comparison to LJ is kind of irrelevant as we're all well aware of the differing circumstances.

Perhaps the title should be - "What does Nige do now then?"

Nige's own answer might be - the quality's already here, we need to work harder, stay fitter, play better. Simples!

And if someone did actually ask him that question, I can just hear him start with "Luton were lucky, apparently... "

Mike drop!

Edited September 7, 2023 by Merrick's Marvels

[mozo]

One of the many issues with this comparison is that we have the full benefit of hindsight when we assess LJ, whereas Nige is still ongoing.

Certainly, a fair few of the players bought and developed during LJ's era have gone on to better things, some in the Prem.

I think the summer 2019 will be a defining one for LJ and Mark Ashton, because they bought players like kids at the pic n mix stand. Some of those players were really good, but many of them had difficult careers at City, such as Massengo, Nagy and Szmodics.

Signing Wells was an interesting one too, because the prevailing feeling at the time was that we were a natural goalscorer away from a playoff push. But we didn't seem prepared for what we got with Wells, and the side in general just withered.

I do think people over state the blame on LJ for the state of things when Nige took over, and none of us really know if he could have got us playing again in what became the Holden season.

[W-S-M Seagull]

I don't think Nige has made a bad signing. Maybe there were a few stop gaps like Simpson and Klose but they didn't break the bank. 

Nigels recruitment seems very measured. Jury is still out on Cornick and Mehmeti but there is a long way to go to be able to call them bad signings.

But so far so good. 

Unlike with LJ who made numerous bad costly signings.

 

[Davefevs]

42 minutes ago, mozo said:

Signing Wells was an interesting one too, because the prevailing feeling at the time was that we were a natural goalscorer away from a playoff push.

It’s a classic “bad piece of recruitment” imho.  Not blaming the player either, or saying Wells is crap, fwiw I’ve been a fan of Wells since his Bradford days.

We’d found a way of winning games (quite ugly in fact) playing a sort of 4141, Diedhiou on his own.

So the need for a natural goalscorer - was that as a replacement for an un-natural goalscorer in Diedhiou?  That might’ve made sense, to me at least.

However it felt a bit like - “shit, I pleaded with Steve that this was the signing to get us into the play-offs and now I’ve realised that if I want to pair him with Fammy, I’ve got to lose a player somewhere else and change my current winning system to do that”.

That’s pretty farcical isn’t it?  Now I doubt it’s as black and white as I paint it, but the evidence is that this was just like a number of other signings made around that time.

Anecdotal it may be, but if you’ve gone in and said Wells is the man to get you over the line and then form drops off and your must-have striker isn’t starting, then the owner is left with a decision to make.

[NcnsBcfc]

4 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Forget Beckham. I get where you're coming from now. 

And you have a higher opinion of Sykes than I, or the OP I suspect. 

We'll get value from him - he was a free transfer! But I don't believe someone higher up the food chain will pay us money for him. I think he'll stick around here for a few years, then go back the way he came. So, in that sense, he is comparable to Cornick (except, unbelievably, we paid money for the latter).

To be fair to Sykes, at times I've looked at him and thought He's definitely a L1 player. But he's really kicked on in the last 9 months.

A number of goals in the second half of last season, allied to a reasonably strong start to this one (culminating in a goal and assist last weekend).

Not bad for a free transfer from L1 at all and of course he's got himself into the ROI squad as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him offered a new contract at the end of this season, as he's not going to be on the much money coming from our feeder club in L1.

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, NcnsBcfc said:

To be fair to Sykes, at times I've looked at him and thought He's definitely a L1 player. But he's really kicked on in the last 9 months.

A number of goals in the second half of last season, allied to a reasonably strong start to this one (culminating in a goal and assist last weekend).

Not bad for a free transfer from L1 at all and of course he's got himself into the ROI squad as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him offered a new contract at the end of this season, as he's not going to be on the much money coming from our feeder club in L1.

IMO Sykes was in the conversation for player of the season last season with one of the best debut seasons we've seen in a while. He ended up as our joint 5th highest goalscorer (4th if it's just league goals) scoring 50% of the number of goals that our golden boot winner scored. 42 appearances for 2,868 minutes and bar the red card against Luton he actually has a decent disciplinary record (just 5 yellow).

I love him and think he's up there as one of Pearson's top signings so far.

[tin]

2 hours ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

But his two major recruitment successes were from the Championship, one of them not an established player. Nige does buy from this level as well as having to dip into L1 and 2. And perhaps his greatest "find" was from non-league, albeit not a cheap one.

Nige has been here 2.5 years and so far, most of the "interest" - unless I'm missing someone - has been in players he has not brought here. There's lots of "ifs" and "mights" about Sykes, Knight, but ....

So, again, to have a chance here, does he need to unearth a gem, a Josh Brownhill, himself? Has the well run dry?

Who’s the non-established player you refer to? LJ’s two most successful signings were Brownhill (free) and Webster (£3.5m). There was a LOT of dross among that. 

The point @Kid in the Riot makes about a pre-COVID market is a valid one, as Nige has had nowhere near the resources (transfer fees, wages etc) available to LJ. But part of that was the pandemic, part of that was profligacy. I actually think the pandemic exacerbated the mistakes of LJ/MA. 

[Merrick's Marvels]

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

IMO Sykes was in the conversation for player of the season last season with one of the best debut seasons we've seen in a while. He ended up as our joint 5th highest goalscorer (4th if it's just league goals) scoring 50% of the number of goals that our golden boot winner scored. 42 appearances for 2,868 minutes and bar the red card against Luton he actually has a decent disciplinary record (just 5 yellow).

I love him and think he's up there as one of Pearson's top signings so far.

Red at Swansea also

[Merrick's Marvels]

4 minutes ago, tin said:

Who’s the non-established player you refer to? LJ’s two most successful signings were Brownhill (free) and Webster (£3.5m). There was a LOT of dross among that. 

The point @Kid in the Riot makes about a pre-COVID market is a valid one, as Nige has had nowhere near the resources (transfer fees, wages etc) available to LJ. But part of that was the pandemic, part of that was profligacy. I actually think the pandemic exacerbated the mistakes of LJ/MA. 

I don't believe the OP's point is about a comparison of resources. We all know they're totally different.

What does Nige have to do to recruit the quality necessary for a promotion push?

Unearth another Vardy?

Sell to buy? 

Hope Guernsey sees sense and loosens the purse strings?

The thread title is misleading. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by Merrick's Marvels

[Davefevs]

10 minutes ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Red at Swansea also

Retrospectively awarded.

[Merrick's Marvels]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Retrospectively awarded.

Thank you. I wasn't sure as I typed it - was tempted to go with a ? at the end - but decided to go "all in".

And lost!

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Retrospectively awarded.

 

1 minute ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Thank you. I wasn't sure as I typed it - was tempted to go with a ? at the end - but decided to go "all in".

And lost!

Doesn't count imo

Anyway, he was still brilliant and seems to be getting back into the groove this season.

[Merrick's Marvels]

10 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

 

Doesn't count imo

Anyway, he was still brilliant and seems to be getting back into the groove this season.

Been excellent last couple of games. Fingers crossed he keeps that level up. 

A lot to like about him but any time we get into good attacking  areas and then pick out the first defender seriously gets on my wick. He's not the only one tbf. And, like I say, has been excellent last 2 games (away games - a co-incidence??). Just needs to be more consistent with that delivery. That's where he's still a bit L1 imo. But if any of our statto geeks have data to prove otherwise - that's cool! 

Edited September 7, 2023 by Merrick's Marvels

[Red Billy]

If you’re shopping on a budget you have to cut your cloth accordingly.  You think more wisely about what you put in your trolley and you make sure you eat it.  Johnson in the transfer market was like the big shop on an empty belly and he never really worried about if what he put in the basket he would use.  Nice to have it in the cupboard in case I fancy it was the way he looked at it.  Most of it went out of date and was rotten and the rest was too fatty and was bad for our health! 

[mozo]

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bristol-city-transfers-lee-johnson-2228745?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

Here's the LJ list of you'd like a look.

A few rotters in there. 

A few that had potential but didn't deliver.

A few that racked up lots of games with us and others that did well elsewhere after they left.

[tin]

1 hour ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

What does Nige have to do to recruit the quality necessary for a promotion push?

Unearth another Vardy?

Sell to buy? 

Hope Guernsey sees sense and loosens the purse strings?

The thread title is misleading. 

Fair point; I don’t disagree.

What’s he got to do for a genuine promotion push? Be backed by an ambitious board. By backed, I mean give him enough of the Scott cash to get one or two players of real quality in and try to keep your best players for a little while longer. Nothing wild like the spending sprees under LJ. Nige has signed enough players who have improved us to warrant that IMO. 

My early season optimism of a top-10 finish was based on the increasing likelihood of Scott staying until January or there being funds to replace him, borne out of “what football makes, football can spend”. 

I definitely think Nige would’ve spend the vast sums afforded to LJ a heck of a lot better, but we will never know. 

 

[Merrick's Marvels]

20 minutes ago, tin said:

Fair point; I don’t disagree.

What’s he got to do for a genuine promotion push? Be backed by an ambitious board. By backed, I mean give him enough of the Scott cash to get one or two players of real quality in and try to keep your best players for a little while longer. Nothing wild like the spending sprees under LJ. Nige has signed enough players who have improved us to warrant that IMO. 

My early season optimism of a top-10 finish was based on the increasing likelihood of Scott staying until January or there being funds to replace him, borne out of “what football makes, football can spend”. 

I definitely think Nige would’ve spend the vast sums afforded to LJ a heck of a lot better, but we will never know. 

 

Amen 100%. Totally agree with all of that 

He won't be backed though, will he? Hence this thread, I guess. 

Crazy when you think about it.

He backed a 100-1 chancer like LJ to the hilt. But a manager who's already delivered what the owner says he wants - promotion to Premier League - so in betting odds relative to LJ might be a 10-1 shot, he's decided not to back him!!!!!!!

I hope for his sake, the owner isn't partial to a flutter. If he is, the evidence suggests he's a serial loser and Mr William Hill's best friend.  

Edited September 7, 2023 by Merrick's Marvels

[Lrrr]

It’s an impossible discussion to start with, as others have pointed out ours and everyone else’s financial positions were a lot different but also with Ashton around you can’t say with certainty which signings Lee wanted and which Ashton lumped him with whereas you can almost guarantee that every signing atm has Nige’s seal of approval. 

[robinforlife2]

The thing is, money doesn't equal success, and often it has an adverse effect.

LJ gets a lot of criticism for his recruitment, but he bought it some good players, some turned a profit, and I would say, he was unfortunate that Covid meant we could never move on players like Fammy, who could have offset some losses. Johnson improved Reid, and done good business with Webster, Flint, Bryan and Kelly and if you wont credit Johnson with Bryan and Flint, then you can't credit Nige with Semenyo and Scott, as these were players already at the club when Nige arrived.

Regardless of budgets, I would look at both managers on what they spent and what they got back from players they recruited. Johnson may have spent a lot, but he also sold Webster, a player he purchased. Yes it would be a loss, but not a single player Nige has recruited has been sold yet.

Players from the academy do not count, these weren't purchased by either manager and were partially developed by coaches prior to breaking into the first team. If anything, it's Tinnion who should be praised for these players.

For me, it's worth noting, a number of players Johnson purchased made a profit, broke even, or some even served the club well for years before being released. I would also say, that Johnson signed 6/7 players who looked very good, but were let down by injury. 

[Shauntaylor85]

13 minutes ago, robinforlife2 said:

The thing is, money doesn't equal success, and often it has an adverse effect.

LJ gets a lot of criticism for his recruitment, but he bought it some good players, some turned a profit, and I would say, he was unfortunate that Covid meant we could never move on players like Fammy, who could have offset some losses. Johnson improved Reid, and done good business with Webster, Flint, Bryan and Kelly and if you wont credit Johnson with Bryan and Flint, then you can't credit Nige with Semenyo and Scott, as these were players already at the club when Nige arrived.

Regardless of budgets, I would look at both managers on what they spent and what they got back from players they recruited. Johnson may have spent a lot, but he also sold Webster, a player he purchased. Yes it would be a loss, but not a single player Nige has recruited has been sold yet.

Players from the academy do not count, these weren't purchased by either manager and were partially developed by coaches prior to breaking into the first team. If anything, it's Tinnion who should be praised for these players.

For me, it's worth noting, a number of players Johnson purchased made a profit, broke even, or some even served the club well for years before being released. I would also say, that Johnson signed 6/7 players who looked very good, but were let down by injury. 

Come on! Johnson had nothing to do with Semenyo and Scott. All Johnson did was spend spend spend and loan out our talent. I am sorry I know I’m negative so if him but I had issues with the ongoing selection as a player and the management appointment, well, I couldn’t even think straight at Charlton away when it was announced. Spent the whole game feeling like we had made a massive mistake. No doubt Webster and Brownhill were successes but on the whole his signings and development of players was average if not poor. 

[Cityboy1954]

8 hours ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

... or, Nige's recruitment team v LJ's. Did LJ unearth or bring in more lucrative talent than Nige has thus far?

LJ was "backed" way more than Nige, this much we know, but did Lee generate more funds himself for himself with for example Brownhill and Adam Webster? He also might be credited with turning Bobby Reid from an ok attacking midfielder (who can't shoot or score from outside the box) into a £10 mill fox-in-the-six-yard-box?

Yes, yes, he brought in loads of shite, we know this too, we've been over that, it was bus loads of 'em, but has Nige's recruitment been a bit underwhelming? A bit? From the point of view of generating his own transfer kitty with some buying low, selling high? 

Can Nige do it (whatever SL wants from him) without unearthing another Jamie Vardy? Or a gem or two of his own recruitment network? It doesn't look at this point (what might happen in future, I cannot say) that Tanner, Sykes, Cornick etc will be sold on for huge sums to give him the chance to strengthen again.

LJ was lucky with Flint, Bryan, Kodjia, Lloyd, maybe Reid; Nige has been fortunate with Alex Scott, Antoine and maybe Tommy Conway. As far as inherited talent to sell. Looks like LJ was a bit luckier, this far (although there was more dosh sloshing around back in his time in the game).

But during his second spell at Leicester, Nige signed Vardy in his first year (joined in November, Vardy signed the following summer). They were promoted 2 years after this.

 

Without this sort of inspired recruitment (ok, not a future England forward, but someone somewhere between that and Sykes/Cornick level), has he got a chance here? Just asking, for a friend  ....

 

 

Bit of a difference johnson had loads of money nige hasnt so can only bring in league 1an 2 players .

[ExiledAjax]

2 hours ago, mozo said:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bristol-city-transfers-lee-johnson-2228745?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

Here's the LJ list of you'd like a look.

A few rotters in there. 

A few that had potential but didn't deliver.

A few that racked up lots of games with us and others that did well elsewhere after they left.

Pearson has a shorter list of incoming players (18 according to transfermarkt) but already has a couple of full on duds in Wilson and Haikin, some that are pretty much duds like Simpson, and maybe Klose* and some where the full tale is yet to be told such as Bajic, McRorie, and in my opinion Tanner, Mehmeti and Cornick.

Not saying those last four are bad signings  - McRorie is unknown right now and the other three have their good moments certainly - but they're at a crossroads imo and each currently has the potential to be viewed either as a success or a failure when they leave/retire.

I'll grant that right now he's got more successes than failures, but if those named above fall off or fade then he's looking at a circa 50% failure rate.

Not that there's much unusual in that btw, many, many transfers don't work out in the long run. Obviously it's hard to tell the exact figure but I generally expect 1 out of 3 to be "bad" when I look at our transfers each window. Anecdotally that seems to bear itself out.

*Very arguable, Klose was decent enough initially but faded fast.

Edited September 7, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Fuber]

8 hours ago, mozo said:

Worth clarifying that LJ didn't get us into the financial mess. The accounts weren't his responsibility. The owners and CEO take the flak for that.

Although LJs clubs in bag and tactical approach is as much to blame for the wage budget issue - SL refusing to stop the coffers for a 'friend'.

[Davefevs]

59 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Pearson has a shorter list of incoming players (18 according to transfermarkt) but already has a couple of full on duds in Wilson and Haikin, some that are pretty much duds like Simpson, and maybe Klose* and some where the full tale is yet to be told such as Bajic, McRorie, and in my opinion Tanner, Mehmeti and Cornick.

Not saying those last four are bad signings  - McRorie is unknown right now and the other three have their good moments certainly - but they're at a crossroads imo and each currently has the potential to be viewed either as a success or a failure when they leave/retire.

I'll grant that right now he's got more successes than failures, but if those named above fall off or fade then he's looking at a circa 50% failure rate.

Not that there's much unusual in that btw, many, many transfers don't work out in the long run. Obviously it's hard to tell the exact figure but I generally expect 1 out of 3 to be "bad" when I look at our transfers each window. Anecdotally that seems to bear itself out.

*Very arguable, Klose was decent enough initially but faded fast.

Haikin a full-on dud?  On what basis are you making that call?  Imho, he was a cheap as **** cover on a 5 month deal to allow us to save money on getting rid of Bentley and allow Bajic to get some minutes back home.  We then moved him on to save 3 months wages when he signed elsewhere and Max even more established as no1.

I thought it was a great use of “resources” in a tight climate.  One where him not playing has bugger all bearing on recruitment imho.  No issues if you / others disagree.

Thats the only one I feel worth the debate, as it’s all about opinion.

I really think there needs context, e.g, when / why they were signed / money for each signing.  Even Danny Simpson.

Here are the 4 signings who’ve come and gone:

3 free transfers, one on a tribunal (circa £150-250k).  The free transfers were all short term initially.  Klose and Simpson re-contracted.  In Simpson’s case that season extra was too much, but he was extended as cover for Zak Vyner at RB, who didn’t take his chance.

Here are the ones still here:

If you’re starting to speculate that some might fade away, and hit rate drop, then you should speculate that some might pick-up too and hit rate improve.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Davefevs

[shelts]

Has our football on the pitch improved under Nigel ?

 

[Fuber]

1 hour ago, Lrrr said:

It’s an impossible discussion to start with, as others have pointed out ours and everyone else’s financial positions were a lot different but also with Ashton around you can’t say with certainty which signings Lee wanted and which Ashton lumped him with whereas you can almost guarantee that every signing atm has Nige’s seal of approval. 

For the bold - I'm not certain.

He certainly directs the kind of player he wants, but as far as I'm aware NP has always kept a certain distance from the recruitment side of things. It's why he's bigger on the analytics, methodology, and management.

Theoretically - that's the whole reason Tinns is moving in the recruitment focused direction I'd have thought will Ghillespy as lead scout/analyst.

Some pre Tinns moving up signings (King, Simpson, James, Tanner) you can see his influence as early doors he was working without a scouting team that all left with MA as part of the latter's 'consultancy' and seemed to bring in people he felt he could trust. Others I can see Alexander's influence (Mehmeti). God knows whose idea Cornick was.

It's the reason why he had Walsh working with him at Hull/Leicester. The reason for Man Utd U21 poaching that went on appears to be Gordon McQueen, who worked alongside David Mills who is the current, and was under Nige, Head Scout at Leicester and Hull respectively that Walsh bought with him to both clubs following NP along with Shakespeare.

He's seemingly what LJ preached he was, but without the bluster and analogies.

[ciderwithtommy]

Pretty certain when Nige arrived he openly advised that the incumbent strategy of selling your best players every year meant success, I.e. promotion was impossible. With that logic I would assume  he and SL had hatched a cunning new plan that didn’t include selling our best players unless we needed to. Roll on 24 months and we are in fact, selling our best players when strictly we don’t need to (LJ did). I would imagine that is why contracts are running down in our management, as simply the strategy has changed, which is the owners right. Comparing the 2 is always skewed by the difference in backing they have received. 

 

[glynriley]

35 minutes ago, shelts said:

Has our football on the pitch improved under Nigel ?

 

From when? 
When he took over. Yes

From Holden? Yes

From LJ’s last season Yes

From Cotts double winners? No

Random question. 

[Lrrr]

41 minutes ago, Fuber said:

For the bold - I'm not certain.

He certainly directs the kind of player he wants, but as far as I'm aware NP has always kept a certain distance from the recruitment side of things. It's why he's bigger on the analytics, methodology, and management.

Theoretically - that's the whole reason Tinns is moving in the recruitment focused direction I'd have thought will Ghillespy as lead scout/analyst.

Some pre Tinns moving up signings (King, Simpson, James, Tanner) you can see his influence as early doors he was working without a scouting team that all left with MA as part of the latter's 'consultancy' and seemed to bring in people he felt he could trust. Others I can see Alexander's influence (Mehmeti). God knows whose idea Cornick was.

It's the reason why he had Walsh working with him at Hull/Leicester. The reason for Man Utd U21 poaching that went on appears to be Gordon McQueen, who worked alongside David Mills who is the current, and was under Nige, Head Scout at Leicester and Hull respectively that Walsh bought with him to both clubs following NP along with Shakespeare.

He's seemingly what LJ preached he was, but without the bluster and analogies.

I’d be pretty certain we don’t sign players without putting video packages etc of them infront Nigel, Tins would be there with Ghillespy to go through the ones we like but don’t get to Nigel. There surely would he some kind of sign off from Nigel without him needing to go through too much 

[Superjack]

1 hour ago, shelts said:

Has our football on the pitch improved under Nigel ?

 

From Holden and the last season of Johnson, yes.

And from most of the rest of Johnson.