Patience vs itchy trigger fingers

[Mr Popodopolous]

4th best defence for Goals Conceded? However using one model or site (FBREB) we are 9th for Shots Allowed. Which is still frankly not bad.

10th for xG against. However we have conceded a lot of penalties which skews it a bit. We are 8th without.

Our average weighted ranking there albeit basic stats is 7.75.

Otoh we are 17th for Goals Scored, 15th for Shots For, 18th for xG and 19th for non Penalty xG.

Ranking 17.25.

Average weighted across all 8 is 12.5, about as middling as you can get.

Think some of our underlying was better pre the change.

Edited April 2 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

52 minutes ago, Super said:

What about the ones who compare to criticize Manning?

Yep, and that’s where there’s a nuance of evaluating against the point he took over and expectations at that point.  It’s a subtle difference, but there’s good reason for doing it that way, and that’s to avoid it becoming Liam v Nige.

There are bound to be inferences back to Nige, but it shouldn’t be the main thrust.

I can quite happily sit here and give my side of the debate and it be about Manning.  He’s been here 29 games (25+4) and that’s enough to build a picture of Manning, it won’t be a constant one, it’s ever changing.

I can even compare Manning to Manning because 25 league games is enough to do so. I can see trends, trends within trends (sometimes because of opponents).

You may disagree, because I suspect you think that because I was a huge advocate of Nige, I must be anti-Liam.  But you probably scrolled on by any criticism of Nige by me!

[Davefevs]

56 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

4th best defence for Goals Conceded? However using one model or site (FBREB) we are 9th for Shots Allowed. Which is still frankly not bad.

10th for xG against. However we have conceded a lot of penalties which skews it a bit. We are 8th without.

Our average weighted ranking there albeit basic stats is 7.75.

Otoh we are 17th for Goals Scored, 15th for Shots For, 18th for xG and 19th for non Penalty xG.

Ranking 17.25.

Average weighted across all 8 is 12.5, about as middling as you can get.

Think some of our underlying was better pre the change.

data source: The Analyst / Opta

[Mr Popodopolous]

Manning had two particularly bad League spells.

1 win in 5, 0 wins in 6 albeit the first of these was a draw to bookend an unbeaten run.

His others are okay..5 wins in 10 is suddenly decent! Another issue is we have lost 5 of those 10 too.

We got 11 from 5 mid to late December but 1 win in 5 before that. Well technically 1 win and 5 points in 6 then 10 from 4 put another way.

Then 2 points from 5 games January 1st to Leeds at Home..5 wins from 10 as I say from Middlesbrough away to present.

Taking underlying numbers and performances out of the picture for a second, there are some wild divergences here.

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Manning had two particularly bad League spells.

1 win in 5, 0 wins in 6 albeit the first of these was a draw to bookend an unbeaten run.

His others are okay..5 wins in 10 is suddenly decent! Another issue is we have lost 5 of those 10 too.

We got 11 from 5 mid to late December but 1 win in 5 before that. Well technically 1 win and 5 points in 6 then 10 from 4 put another way.

Then 2 points from 5 games January 1st to Leeds at Home..5 wins from 10 as I say from Middlesbrough away to present.

Taking underlying numbers and performances out of the picture for a second, there are some wild divergences here.

 

[BrizzleRed]

9 hours ago, Sandhurst Red said:

Do some forget that NP was given more time than many managers at other clubs would have been allowed? On 2 occasions there were consistent calls from the fanbase he should go... And yet he was stuck by; until the 3rd time. 

Irrespective of the fact he was doing a rebuilding phase during some of this period, the lack of consistency was alarming. Also, so many seem to forget the football was woeful to watch at times.

I struggle to understand some of our fans who have allowed Manning less than 20% of the time NP had and yet want him gone. Give the bloke at least a preseason and the first 15 matches of the 24/25 season to judge him. 

For one thing, if they’d dumped NP earlier, how many potential managers would have been crazy or brave enough to take on the shambles that Pearson was tasked to sort out?

As for lack of consistency, did you really expect anything else, with our injury crisis and small squad, meaning a number of young, inexperienced players having to be thrown in the deep end, hoping they would be able to swim, rather than sink??

The last two games under Manning have thankfully shown a bit of promise, but nobody is going to convince me that NP’s sacking was anything other than for personal reasons by those above.

[The chief]

4 minutes ago, BrizzleRed said:

For one thing, if they’d dumped NP earlier, how many potential managers would have been crazy or brave enough to take on the shambles that Pearson was tasked to sort out?

As for lack of consistency, did you really expect anything else, with our injury crisis and small squad, meaning a number of young, inexperienced players having to be thrown in the deep end, hoping they would be able to swim, rather than sink??

The last two games under Manning have thankfully shown a bit of promise, but nobody is going to convince me that NP’s sacking was anything other than for personal reasons by those above.

Yep, good to have cause for optimism with improved performances and good use of subs and tactics last 2 games. Perhaps a ray of light for manning at least. 

Fundamental issue is the total lack of experience, contacts, vision and know how in those above Manning. No football club leadership nouse whatsoever with JL, BT and GM, which means that we’re still likely to suffer with poor decisions and strategy- likely this will impact recruitment , contract extensions and even minor annoyances like communications,  the splat robin and kit debacles .
Gonna be stuck with this in the short and longer term. Can’t see how this will change either. 

 

 

[BrizzleRed]

2 minutes ago, The chief said:

Yep, good to have cause for optimism with improved performances and good use of subs and tactics last 2 games. Perhaps a ray of light for manning at least. 

Fundamental issue is the total lack of experience, contacts, vision and know how in those above Manning. No football club leadership nouse whatsoever with JL, BT and GM, which means that we’re still likely to suffer with poor decisions and strategy- likely this will impact recruitment , contract extensions and even minor annoyances like communications,  the splat robin and kit debacles .
Gonna be stuck with this in the short and longer term. Can’t see how this will change either. 

 

 

Absolutely with you Chief and just trying to see some positives in the shit situation we’ve been put in by SL, as we are where we are

My own opinion is we’ve dumped a vastly experienced and qualified manager for a complete rookie and if that isn’t bad enough, we’ve been saddled with a right pair of jokers for Chairman and Teckie Director, so not a great combo.  Hopefully Manning grows into the job, as that’s probably the only hope we have.

In the long term, I’m convinced this club is going nowhere until we get an owner who values experience and ability, over yes men who won’t question him and his massive ego.

Feels like we’re stuck in limbo at the moment and sadly, my sights are set on just  surviving in the Championship next season and we should really be looking for higher than that.

Wouldn’t it be great to actually support a professionally run club, rather than some extraordinarily wealthy but delusional blokes part-time plaything?!!!

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 hours ago, cotswoldred2 said:

Since when back to back wins become meaningless? And to diminish the Leicester win due to them being on a poor run was in my book even more credible, if anything knowing us it was a better achievement than Saints. 

You seem to have dug a deep hole for yourself and forgotten a rope, the better we do the deeper you dig, it really is ludicrous, but very entertaining for me at least.

The facts are in all the games under Liam we have out performed Nige, and given the set of early season easier games that is pretty good evidence we are improving under him.

Of course if we replaced our two most valuable assets then we might have challenged top 6, but as mentioned our defence is up there with the best in the division, so 1-0 wins are probably the best we can achieve, so more credit to Liam for that.

''1-0 To The Arsenal'' didn't do them much harm did it?

Hopefully you will see this as just a transition and with a couple of strikers we can challenge next season, but if you honestly believe we will be relegated you better get a bigger shovel.

 

 

Meaningless because our season is over. Its just basically a bunch if friendlies now for us. 

Dug myself in a hole?

Sorry mate but it was just a few weeks ago that we were on a terrible run of form, playing horrendous football. 2 wins does not put me in a hole mate. 

In all the games under Manning we have out performed Nige? What the hell are you on about? What a bizarre thing to say. I remember us beating a good Plymouth 4-1 under Nige. Yesterday we beat a very poor Plymouth 1 nil. 

As you've mentioned Nige, let's not forget who built that defence. 

Yes I'm looking forward to new strikers also not being provided with any service. 

 

Edited April 2 by W-S-M Seagull

[Malago]

What triggered the sacking of Nige was the sacking of Phil Alexander.  All the subsequent events cascaded from the removal of PA and SL allowing his son to take charge.

Say No to nepotism.

[CHAZ MICHAELS]

3 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Meaningless because our season is over. Its just basically a bunch if friendlies now for us. 

Dug myself in a hole?

Sorry mate but it was just a few weeks ago that we were on a terrible run of form, playing horrendous football. 2 wins does not put me in a hole mate. 

In all the games under Manning we have out performed Nige? What the hell are you on about? What a bizarre thing to say. I remember us beating a good Plymouth 4-1 under Nige. Yesterday we beat a very poor Plymouth 1 nil. 

As you've mentioned Nige, let's not forget who built that defence. 

Yes I'm looking forward to new strikers also not being provided with any service. 

 

Certainly not meaningless to Plymouth or Leicester who were desperate for the points.

The fact we won both games against opposition with a lot more to play is a positive isn't it ? 

Also, not sure you can see it was a 'good' Plymouth team at Ashton Gate. They'd made a bunch of changes that night including resting Hardie, Whittaker, Aziz etc.

And they had 2 or 3 starting their first Championship game that night.

It was a good performance by us though, and definitely one of the more entertaining games in Nige's 100+ match tenure.

[fisherrich]

3 hours ago, Malago said:

What triggered the sacking of Nige was the sacking of Phil Alexander.  All the subsequent events cascaded from the removal of PA and SL allowing his son to take charge.

Say No to nepotism.

Spot on. Lansdowns just used the situation to get Nige P out. The sooner they are gone, the better IMO. They have not got Bristol City FC best interests at heart, just their friggin egos. Get em out.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, CHAZ MICHAELS said:

Certainly not meaningless to Plymouth or Leicester who were desperate for the points.

The fact we won both games against opposition with a lot more to play is a positive isn't it ? 

Also, not sure you can see it was a 'good' Plymouth team at Ashton Gate. They'd made a bunch of changes that night including resting Hardie, Whittaker, Aziz etc.

And they had 2 or 3 starting their first Championship game that night.

It was a good performance by us though, and definitely one of the more entertaining games in Nige's 100+ match tenure.

They were in better form, more enterprising under Schumacher but they also made changes and had their difficulty away from home.

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 hours ago, CHAZ MICHAELS said:

Certainly not meaningless to Plymouth or Leicester who were desperate for the points.

The fact we won both games against opposition with a lot more to play is a positive isn't it ? 

Also, not sure you can see it was a 'good' Plymouth team at Ashton Gate. They'd made a bunch of changes that night including resting Hardie, Whittaker, Aziz etc.

And they had 2 or 3 starting their first Championship game that night.

It was a good performance by us though, and definitely one of the more entertaining games in Nige's 100+ match tenure.

This isn't the Plymouth or Leicester forum. It was meaningless for us. 

You're trying to frame this as Leicester and Plymouth are battling to win every single point and giving their all so that makes them impressive victories but the reality is both are/were in poor form and Leicester have huge off the field issues. 

Plymouth were in far better form when they came to Ashton Gate and if I remember rightly they had quite a few good chances. 

[E.G.Red]

23 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

This isn't the Plymouth or Leicester forum. It was meaningless for us. 

You're trying to frame this as Leicester and Plymouth are battling to win every single point and giving their all so that makes them impressive victories but the reality is both are/were in poor form and Leicester have huge off the field issues. 

Plymouth were in far better form when they came to Ashton Gate and if I remember rightly they had quite a few good chances. 

No game is meaningless. We need to build momentum and get some of the confidence back in the team . 

[Swede]

I remain cautiously optimistic.  These were two games we could easily have lost on paper.

Manning set his team up and had a game plan for Leicester. I saw him coaching his way through the match. He made positive, not reactive subs. This carried over to Plymouth where he was not afraid to change something he didn't like tactical wise and was quick to point out that it wasn't performance issues that led to the changes.

This is what I want to see a lot more of. We have a good chance of making it three wins on the spin so let's go for it, be bold!

 

[Robbored]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

This isn't the Plymouth or Leicester forum. It was meaningless for us. 

You're trying to frame this as Leicester and Plymouth are battling to win every single point and giving their all so that makes them impressive victories but the reality is both are/were in poor form and Leicester have huge off the field issues. 

Plymouth were in far better form when they came to Ashton Gate and if I remember rightly they had quite a few good chances. 

They played several young and inexperienced players when they came to AG and got stuffed 4-1 iirc. Their manager admitted post match that he’d got it wrong.

Its surprising that he lasted for as long as he did.

[Silvio Dante]

6 hours ago, Robbored said:

They played several young and inexperienced players when they came to AG and got stuffed 4-1 iirc. Their manager admitted post match that he’d got it wrong.

It’s surprising that he lasted for as long as he did.

I’m also surprised Foster lasted as long as he did after making decisions like that at AG.

Except, of course, that was Schumacher.

[redsquirrel]

7 hours ago, Swede said:

I remain cautiously optimistic.  These were two games we could easily have lost on paper.

Manning set his team up and had a game plan for Leicester. I saw him coaching his way through the match. He made positive, not reactive subs. This carried over to Plymouth where he was not afraid to change something he didn't like tactical wise and was quick to point out that it wasn't performance issues that led to the changes.

This is what I want to see a lot more of. We have a good chance of making it three wins on the spin so let's go for it, be bold!

 

are these the first two times he has changed tactics during the games? it reads like it from post match talk and highlight that ive seen. previous games have felt like  'thats the plan and we are sticking with it' 

if it is the first two times,what has taken so long for the penny to drop and think something else might work?  its going to  be a tough journey if hes learning on the job and it takes this long to grasp something so glaringly obvious

[Robbored]

1 hour ago, Silvio Dante said:

I’m also surprised Foster lasted as long as he did after making decisions like that at AG.

Except, of course, that was Schumacher.

Was it? Shows now much notice I take of who the opposition manager is…………

[Jeez]

We all know the sacking was very harsh but this time it really, really pissed off the most prolific & respected contributors on here. 

Just like social media influencing that sentiment spreads & keeps being reinforced by a wider community. 

Credit to Manning coming into that maelstrom created for him & digging his way through it. 

I would have preferred NP saw out the contract & left with dignity but change was made & it would be odd to not give Manning next season to see the project through.

Its rare an L1 player hits the ground running in 1st season in championship so why are we expecting the same from a L1 coach?

[exAtyeoMax]

34 minutes ago, Jeez said:

We all know the sacking was very harsh but this time it really, really pissed off the most prolific & respected contributors on here. 

Just like social media influencing that sentiment spreads & keeps being reinforced by a wider community. 

Credit to Manning coming into that maelstrom created for him & digging his way through it. 

I would have preferred NP saw out the contract & left with dignity but change was made & it would be odd to not give Manning next season to see the project through.

Its rare an L1 player hits the ground running in 1st season in championship so why are we expecting the same from a L1 coach?

The club were at the time of his employment.

[Mr Popodopolous]

45 minutes ago, Jeez said:

We all know the sacking was very harsh but this time it really, really pissed off the most prolific & respected contributors on here. 

Just like social media influencing that sentiment spreads & keeps being reinforced by a wider community. 

Credit to Manning coming into that maelstrom created for him & digging his way through it. 

I would have preferred NP saw out the contract & left with dignity but change was made & it would be odd to not give Manning next season to see the project through.

Its rare an L1 player hits the ground running in 1st season in championship so why are we expecting the same from a L1 coach?

Blame the hierarchy for the expectations they laid out and the hype, the spin.

It felt a needless swing in direction mid course that could derail us in respect of minimum a transitional period.

Reports on the game by national papers on Friday referred to the Pearson issue and a certain discord with fans and I assume they were not just referring to OTIB.

Edited April 3 by Mr Popodopolous

[cellist]

54 minutes ago, Jeez said:

We all know the sacking was very harsh but this time it really, really pissed off the most prolific & respected contributors on here. 

Just like social media influencing that sentiment spreads & keeps being reinforced by a wider community. 

Credit to Manning coming into that maelstrom created for him & digging his way through it. 

I would have preferred NP saw out the contract & left with dignity but change was made & it would be odd to not give Manning next season to see the project through.

Its rare an L1 player hits the ground running in 1st season in championship so why are we expecting the same from a L1 coach?

I think this bold bit hits the nail on the head. How different the whole atmosphere would be if Nige had seen us safely to 9th-12th, he'd been properly thanked and given a good send off at the end of the season, and then a new coach brought in for the next "phase of the project". Lots of justifications for this. Some might still have disagreed and thought that Pearson deserved an extension, but it the atmosphere wouldn't have been nearly as toxic.

Regards to your last point in italics, that too is the club's doing. LM was brought in not to tear it all apart and rebuild, nor to learn on the job as a coach with good potential but little experience. He was explicitly, very clearly brought in at expense of perhaps the most experienced and respected manager we've ever had to get more out of this current group this season. Most of the frustration on the forums as I see it is directed at the owners for this reason, and for me at least I don't feel confident in our decision making, our recruitment, the general running of the club.

Manning really hasn't helped himself in my book with his coaching newspeak, his general demeanour, and several very poor performances that seemed like a backwards step. He has work to do to convince me that he's the right man to succeed Pearson next season. He's already proved not to be the right man to get more out of the current squad this season which is what he was brought in for. Some performances have been better, many have been worse. I've seen a lot of arguing over different stats and what they prove/disprove - PPG at the moment at least seems to me to suggest we're pretty much where we might have expected to be anyway.

I'm not anti LM forever - I don't think anyone is really despite what many are saying. I'm seeing a lot of "credit where credit is due" - LM does deserve credit for this weekend - but it's too early to say we've turned a corner, or even that he is delivering on what he was brought in to do as we've been here before during his tenure. Again to his credit he seems to realise this. Here's hoping for a few more good performances towards the end of the season to generate some positivity about next season. I want to see a few more good performances in the final few games to give me some belief that he can be a successful manager for us. I want a bit of hope to at least dream! I don't want next season to be like this - never felt as emotionless after a win as I did against Swansea a few weeks ago. That's not what supporting a football team should be like. 

 

[Davefevs]

10 hours ago, Swede said:

I remain cautiously optimistic.  These were two games we could easily have lost on paper.

Manning set his team up and had a game plan for Leicester. I saw him coaching his way through the match. He made positive, not reactive subs. This carried over to Plymouth where he was not afraid to change something he didn't like tactical wise and was quick to point out that it wasn't performance issues that led to the changes.

This is what I want to see a lot more of. We have a good chance of making it three wins on the spin so let's go for it, be bold!

 

3 hours ago, redsquirrel said:

are these the first two times he has changed tactics during the games? it reads like it from post match talk and highlight that ive seen. previous games have felt like  'thats the plan and we are sticking with it' 

if it is the first two times,what has taken so long for the penny to drop and think something else might work?  its going to  be a tough journey if hes learning on the job and it takes this long to grasp something so glaringly obvious

Both of these posts resonate.

I hope that both of the last two games are gonna be the “new norm”.

But….i do wonder when he’s gonna stop talking about “the game-plan” as the default reason for gaining results / performances.

I would rather “game-plan” becomes “identity”, because as it stands, “game-plan” implies its specific for that game, and something a bit different than the norm.

Whilst many of you don’t like the use of “behaviours” and “emotional” (which I think he misused btw), i’m seeing “game-plan” as LM’s way of congratulating himself first over the players when we win, and using it as defection, ie (paraphrased) “the players didn’t execute my game-plan” when we lose.

Most good “managers” prefer to let the players take credit for a win, and then support them when losing.  LM needs to tweak the balance.

There has to become a point when the players just go out there and play, and it’s “identity” shining through, not individual game-plans.  Don’t get me wrong, it is still needed, but the importance LM is placing on it is being over-egged.

And I think it’s been doubled-down on himself with the bit about Sam Bell, and then Matty James’s interview went further.

If I take last 30 v Swansea, last 20 v West Brom, and both of Leicester and Plymouth, one can only conclude that we saw a very different Bristol City to the opening 70 v West Brom, the opening 60 v Swansea and several games before and over his time here.  That’s not game-plan for me, that’s a change in direction.  I don’t really care if it’s been player instigated or Manning’s realisation, but I’d like it to continue.  Leicester felt different to Southampton.  The way we beat Southampton was the way you beat Southampton, and probably only works against them.  The way we beat Leicester will work against lots of teams.  It relies on execution, so won’t be consistent, because we have an inconsistent bunch.  Can you imagine had we played Plymouth playing block, slow build-up style?

Please let this be the start of Manningball v2.0, not just game-plans!  
 

++++

just read @cellist post, that resonated too.

Edited April 3 by Davefevs

[mozo]

12 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Plymouth were in far better form when they came to Ashton Gate and if I remember rightly they had quite a few good chances. 

That spell of games under Nige said everything you need to know about this Bristol City squad.

There was the exciting, rampaging win v Plymouth where we also rode our luck.

Then the resilient and dignified effort in a narrow defeat away at Leicester. 

Then...we give away a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 to an very ordinary Stoke team at Ashton Gate!

Should we judge Nige on these games? Or does it just tell us more about what he was working with? I'd say the latter and that applies to Manning too.

[Swede]

6 hours ago, redsquirrel said:

are these the first two times he has changed tactics during the games? it reads like it from post match talk and highlight that ive seen. previous games have felt like  'thats the plan and we are sticking with it' 

if it is the first two times,what has taken so long for the penny to drop and think something else might work?  its going to  be a tough journey if hes learning on the job and it takes this long to grasp something so glaringly obvious

I quite agree. I must confess its the first times I can recall. That shows progress! Or that he avidly reads OTIB.

[KingHillRed]

On 01/04/2024 at 14:47, marmite said:

My money my club. 

And what is wrong with that statement exactly?  I know what I would do if it was my money too - I'd do as I see fit

[exAtyeoMax]

2 hours ago, KingHillRed said:

And what is wrong with that statement exactly?  I know what I would do if it was my money too - I'd do as I see fit

yet they want us to stump up our hard earned cash for tickets and merchandise each season. 

I suppose, he can't blame us for any of the shitstorms of the last few seasons though. It's his club and it's all on him.

[Superjack]

4 hours ago, KingHillRed said:

And what is wrong with that statement exactly?  I know what I would do if it was my money too - I'd do as I see fit

Even if it didn't work for over twenty years?

Even if in that time, what 'you see fit' and kept on trying to go back to failed. Every. ****ing. Time?

Even if you knew **** all about football?

Edited April 3 by Superjack