Mr Popodopolous

We went into hardline cutbacks in summer 2021 and these begun then, Nottingham Forest sacked Hughton, hired Cooper, and their baseline wage bill didn't fall, rose a bit actually. I'm not at all convinced they were within the 3 year limit to 2022. The 3rd year Covid loss which was a nonsense maybe tipped the balance. For context they not unreasonably argued that they lost about £8m in 2019-20 and the same again in 2020-21. They then Projected a Covid loss of £12m or so in 2021-22 when there were zero restrictions! Bit of impact sure but not 50 pct higher than the 2 genuine Covid seasons.. They sold nobody of note, apart from the Carvalho to Olympiakos which was a likely couple of million profit.

https://www.therandompundit.com/post/are-forest-digging-themselves-into-a-financial-hole-ffp-analysis This could be interesting. About to read it. Hmm?? If Year 1 was an £18.7m loss for FFP they FAILED. Failed. To 2022. Pre-tax position and remember Covid years aggregated and halved, some of the Covid add-backs. £39m limit. 2018-19..-£25m 2019-20..-£22m 2020-21..-£22m Obviously debt write offs in the Profit and Loss account don't offset FFP or actual losses. Think there was one or two in that period of £5m but disregarding this. 2021-22..-£47m Think their starting point prior to deductions was £94m in losses. Clearly-£20.9m but their third year Covid number projected was very dubious. £12m in 2021-22??

Agreed. The last time we tried to cut costs while remaining afloat and the FFP issue was less acute then we steadily declined, before finishing bottom. By a distance! On top of that, NP has blooded lots of young players and has been tactically flexible.

Been otherwise engaged this weekend but found snippets online. Sounds encouraging. No knocks I hope, that is key. The changes shows the depth and didn't seem albeit text commentary via Twitter only like we were too stretched even when younger players came on?

Edit. Not really too relevant to it tbh.

How long does Lavia have on his contract? I expect Lavia, Liverpool will try and lever that price down from £50m too.

From the fans certainly. From the club? Think we've been a bit slow but now we are improving ie the AG8 will be an annual event. The marking of the 1998 promotion team v Watford back in November.

I mean I did suspect that many PL clubs would deem him overpriced. Clearly an element of higher and lower, no problem he'll stay another year or at least we will see come January if he's doing really well or if we're bottom third say.

Ideally my view and finances or worries or a bloated squad can get in the way. Baker, Kalas we think and Klose gone (Moore and Low I can discount as not in first team contention). Dickie in. Feels one light to me, especially as injuries and suspensions occur over a season. As we know Atkinson is out for a few months still. We could use the young players in thst position as a combination for 4th CB but I'm unsure. Naismith and Roberts can play it, maybe even McCrorie and to a lesser extent Tanner and Pring but this is very much shoe-horning in some cases.

Was partially tongue in cheek given how things have a tendency to go against us. Lack of penalties plus some of the other officiating was scandalous last season. I digress, my- not entirely serious- thinking was that a goal down and behind the game they make it bitty, niggly and time added on as a result. That fatigue can certainly kick in and make it a bit more of a lottery if only a goal up. Aspect of a holding tactic too, staying within the game. Perhaps the opposition will get frustrated and get a cheap 2nd booking or red card.

In other words, Everton got lucky that their case wasn't heard in 2022-23 as it should have been. This rule specifically appears to mitigate against that happening again. If they could between them bring forward some kinda rule whereby points can he docked there and then off basis of 3rd year forecast and 2 year actual, then appeal or maybe have the deduction pending ready to be removed if put right by end of May/June. That would be great.

In respect of PL Profit and Sustainability I found this interesting as far as a new addition goes. Up to the EFL to keep up with this bit, not fully read it myself yet.

Think they're okay although it's hard to tell. They lost £40 odd million before tax in 2021-22 iirc but this will have included a £40-45m survival bonus. Phillips and Raphinia the following year will have generated a large profit but at the same time, players were added, managers came and went which adds cost base. The £40-45m survival bonus was not.applixaboe to 2022-23 as, well they did not survive so that surely all things being equal sees £40-45m of Operating costs disappear. Whether Survival Bonuses would count against FFP anyway I really am unsure- they definitely should. Like Leicester and Southampton they're on the £83m but surely coming down with less accumulated losses than Leicester e.g.

The overpriced thesis has been reported in various circles and would explain plenty. Yes agree with Darragh, we will not be bounced into letting Scott go on the cheap this summer.

The idea that SL makes money out of the Bristol Sport, AGL etc venture seems crazy to me. To mainly echo EA, as and when he sells up there may well be a large amount but until such time as he does sell up and there are ways. He could sell the sport, keep and rent the facilities- money flowing back both at point of sale and over time while keep f all of the non matchday events revenue thst would take some time however. I know someone who was adamant he was, but they came up with little evidence when I suggested they analyse the accounts over time. You may be able to claw back a bit via headline losses but thst is merely reduction of losses a bit, not breakeven let alone gain.

Whatever happened to the 10 yard rule anyway? Dissent or probably not retreating the full distance quickly enough had the free kick brought forward, why did they abolish it just stop using it?

I just don't see the upside for us in such a scenario. I understand the underlying principle behind it, I get how it can be mutually beneficial but don't see why it would be for us in this instance.

How it will happen is: We will be a goal up and playing well. Team B will waste time, shithouse, niggle etc. We will be the ones who lose out, drop 2 points through a last minute fluke screamer/deflected scrappy goal/dodgy penalty probably hit on the break in the extra time despite it being brought about by their time wasting. If they literally stop the clock for these points, then that would rather negate this. 15-20 minutes stoppage time in a half would not be uncommon- but there we go.

Looks like there will be a new approach to timekeeping in matches in the EFL, along with PGMOL etc. Perhaps along the lines of or similar to the World Cup in November-December. https://www.efl.com/news/2023/july/match-officials-adopt-new-approach-for-202324-season/

The last one is a journo who perhaps was only relaying the clubs view but I do agree. I mean, I've only really engaged on Twitter but another line I often see is that because they spent fees for x windows they can't possibly be in breach. In relatively modern times they've been cushioned in a way. Rich owners ore FFP ie Hammam onwards and then PL and a Parachute Payments, following a couple of yoyos. The test will be March I guess when club's projections go in or perhaps next summer at the latest.

Shock! Shock! Cardiff fans speak about FFP on Twitter. A journo too. Apparently they are well within FFP rules and or have plenty of budget left. Does this stack? Then again maybe the new rules have changed things, if there are any..EFL Handbook seems not to be out yet. ?? @Davefevs @W-S-M Seagull

Best guesses here. Leicester City seem to be to be most of interest from the 3 year rule of the relegated sides but that said have sold Maddison into last season's accounts and Barnes into this. Barnes was £38-39m. Pure profit, think Hirst was £1-1.5m, probably also pure profit. Maddison was £40m minus remaining Book Value and sell on to Norwich, Schmeichel £1m and Fofana £75m minus remaining Book Value and anything to his original club in sell on. Wages down and a big amortisation saving in terms of those who left on a free. I estimate £20m and £25m respectively. Maybe a fall of £80m in existing wages from PL and £10m year on year 2021-22 to 2022-23. On the debit side: European income non existent, £20-25m falls off last year. Parachute Payments and EFL money combined probably rise to £50-60m. £129,284,000 in 2021-22. Cost of additions- amortisation alone 2022-23: Faes- £15m/5, £3m. Souttar- £15m/5.5...£1.36m roughly in 2022-23, double thereafter £2.72m. Kristansen- £17m/5.5, £1.54m roughly in 2022-23, double thereafter £3.08m. 2023-24: Hermansen- £5m/5=£1m. Coady- £7.5m/3, £2.5m Winks- £10m/3, £3.33m. Doyle is cheap as chips reportedly, £500k for the season on loan. For a player of his level. Sacking Rodgers will have cost. Small cost to be added with Smith and Maresca. Oh and Mavididi- £6.9m/4..about £1.725m. I can't say with certainty despite sale of Barnes, Parachute Payments and some wage falls that they are on course to comply as it stands to 2023-24. £83m adjusted Upper Loss Limit.

Is that certain Dave, would we book the Profit now if it was a loan with obligation? Or is this area flexible between clubs ie clubs can arrange it to suit.

For balance, should point out that some Wolves fans are calling BS on FFP problems claims across varied forums although it varies. Some seem to think journos are just parroting the club line, however I looked and you can extrapolate to some extent from added amortisation last season, the post season events Profit on Disposal of Players and TV money in 2021-22 to 2022-23 gap. I'd be surprised if the media reports are far wrong.

The pressure on Wolves does make me question why certain other mid to lower mid ranking PL clubs aren't feeling the heat in the same way. I'll stick to the relevant thread but I wonder why a few others don't seem all that concerned.