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We are worse under Johnson....

Andy082005

By Andy082005
in Football Chat

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NickJ

NickJ

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We've been tonked twice under LJ against Hull and Brighton (both 4-0) but in SC's last 6 games we got beaten 4-0 against both Burnley and Derby so not sure where the justification comes from that we are now 'worse against the top teams'?

 

Because statistically we are. Take the top 10 teams, compare points per game under SC and points per game under LJ - I haven't done it, but confident SC will work out better.

Equally I'm also confident that points per game against lower tier teams will work out better under LJ.

Hence why I say in some ways we are better and worse under LJ. Early days, just an observation.

 

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AshtonGreat

AshtonGreat

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, spudski said:

I really don't understand how anyone expects any manager, let alone LJ, to work miracles and promotion type form with the squad he inherited.

Yes he's brought in some decent loans...but any manager would struggle inheriting such a small squad...low on numbers and quality at this level.

We are in the position we are, purely down to the absolute mess of a pre season and shocking management of LJ's predecessor.

Hopefully our 'Loans' are up for the fight...which is always a worry.

 

You really have it in for Steve Cotterill don't you. You won't even refer to him by his name. I don't think SC's management was 'shocking'. He made mistakes this season but he also had a lot of bad luck, not to mention - I suspect - a lot of internal politics to deal with behind the scenes. He's clearly a good manager, otherwise we wouldn't have run away with the league last season. 

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Major Isewater

Major Isewater

Posted
Posted
On 3 avril 2016 at 10:16, Craven arms said:

No worse off but would of been better under Warnock. again City and the cheap option back in league 1.

Please stop with this " cheap option " line , do you think Barnsley just let us take their boss for nothing ? 

The cheap option would have been an unemployed manager and there were plenty to choose from so you  are quite simply wrong .

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BigAl&Toby

BigAl&Toby

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, AshtonGreat said:

You really have it in for Steve Cotterill don't you. You won't even refer to him by his name. I don't think SC's management was 'shocking'. He made mistakes this season but he also had a lot of bad luck, not to mention - I suspect - a lot of internal politics to deal with behind the scenes. He's clearly a good manager, otherwise we wouldn't have run away with the league last season. 

Last season was superb and down to SC. That was though last season.

This season under SC was desperate. We needed a change and thank Christ it came. We'll never know what he had to manage off the pitch but on it the contrast between last season and this couldn't have been more stark.

If he'd have remained I genuinely believe we'd be in a very precarious position. I smiled when this thread re-emerged after an anticipated defeat at Hull. That result hardly mattered. The ones that do are Rotherham, Brentford and Huddersfield. 

Hopefully by the end of this month the result against Huddersfield won't matter. And for what it's worth, I'm confident we'll be in this division next season.

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CityCity

CityCity

Posted
Posted

It's all relative to current form i guess

Steve Cotterill was a Great manager when we were winning league 1

Steve Cotterill was a Terrible manager when we were struggling in the championship

 

Not really he was exactly the same guy just performing against better sides

Cotts let himself down by being too stubborn in his formation and substitutions, but we dont really know what happened in the summer regarding player recruitment and if it was his fault or not

 

Have to say i was very dubious when LJ came in and he was not necessarily the bigger name i was hoping for(i really wanted Pearson) but i have been fairly impressed so far. There is so much to being a manager, not just the footballing side on match days and training there is the transfer dealings,media etc

 

I really like the way he comes across in interviews and seems to be very relaxed and knowledgeable about football.

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Jack Dawe

Jack Dawe

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Shtanley said:

But we clearly weren't "doomed" as we are 6 points clear of the drop?

Rather than 2, as we were the night we lost at Wolves. And we are 19th now rather than 20th. We've also made ground on Huddersfield, Brentford and Forest. Plus our GD is 3 goals better than that night.

The OP is flapping though because we can't afford to go back to our form under Cotts, we have to maintain our WLWLW for another couple of weeks yet.

And Rotherham seem unstoppable right now.

I am flapping too and can understand the OP's uncomfortable feelings on this. I'd prefer it if he laid off LJ though, because we are in a better position than we were in January, or after Wolves away. Why not try laying into the sags coming on here instead, OP, that's how I've tried to cope since Saturday?!

 

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Shtanley

Shtanley

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said:

Rather than 2, as we were the night we lost at Wolves. And we are 19th now rather than 20th. We've also made ground on Huddersfield, Brentford and Forest. Plus our GD is 3 goals better than that night.

The OP is flapping though because we can't afford to go back to our form under Cotts, we have to maintain our WLWLW for another couple of weeks yet.

And Rotherham seem unstoppable right now.

I am flapping too and can understand the OP's uncomfortable feelings on this. I'd prefer it if he laid off LJ though, because we are in a better position than we were in January, or after Wolves away. Why not try laying into the sags coming on here instead, OP, that's how I've tried to cope since Saturday?!

 

We have more points than Rotherham in our last 10. 

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Jack Dawe

Jack Dawe

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Shtanley said:

We have more points than Rotherham in our last 10. 

One more. I suppose it suggests a draw tomorrow, which I would not be unhappy with, unless we are a goal or two up and lose the lead.

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BCFC_Dan

BCFC_Dan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NickJ said:

Because statistically we are. Take the top 10 teams, compare points per game under SC and points per game under LJ - I haven't done it, but confident SC will work out better.

Equally I'm also confident that points per game against lower tier teams will work out better under LJ.

Hence why I say in some ways we are better and worse under LJ. Early days, just an observation.

 

You're right but LJ's lack of games against the top 10 so far goes against him. Though he's not won a single point against a side in the top 10 he's only played 3 so it's statistically insignificant.

The numbers are as follows:

SC

Top 10: P11 W1 D4 L6 = 7pts / 11 games = 0.63ppg

Bottom 14: P15 W3 D5 L7 = 14pts / 15 games = 0.93 ppg

Total: 21pts / 26 games = 0.8ppg

JP

Top 10: P2 W1 D1 L0 = 4 pts / 2 games = 2ppg

Bottom 14: P1 W0 D0 L1 = 0 pts / 1 games = 0ppg

Total: 4pts / 3 games = 1.33ppg

LJ

Top 10: P3 W0 D0 L0 = 0 pts / 3 games = 0ppg

Bottom 14: P7 W6 D0 L1 = 18pts / 7 games = 2.6ppg

Total: 18pts / 10 games = 1.8ppg

If you combine Pemberton and Johnson you get 4pts from 5 games against the top 10 which, although not great, is better than Cotterill managed. 5 games is still fairly insignificant over a season, though.

If you use the stats to imagine Johnson had managed all of Cotterill's games as well we end up 32 points better off at this point and we'd be contesting a top 2 spot. I have to admit that seems unlikely, though.

Ultimately there are a lot of things that can be read into the numbers. My feeling is that some improvement would have occurred anyway post-Xmas as the team has settled into the division but that Cotterill's adherence to the tactics that worked last season and failure to recruit (I don't know if that's his fault but the problem went away when he did) held the team back massively in the first half of the season.

 

 

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BCFC_Dan

BCFC_Dan

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, 29AR said:

@BCFC_Dan Good work. But for an A* is that the respective top 10's and bottom 14's as at the time of the fixture or based upon today's league table? :shutup::fish:

It's based on today's league table. I'm not prepared to give up more than 10 minutes of my lunch break to this kind of nonsense.

Arguably that's a better one to use anyway as league position now is a better reflection of a team's strength than it was in the early weeks of the season.

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Andy082005

Andy082005

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Posted
3 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

Rather than 2, as we were the night we lost at Wolves. And we are 19th now rather than 20th. We've also made ground on Huddersfield, Brentford and Forest. Plus our GD is 3 goals better than that night.

The OP is flapping though because we can't afford to go back to our form under Cotts, we have to maintain our WLWLW for another couple of weeks yet.

And Rotherham seem unstoppable right now.

I am flapping too and can understand the OP's uncomfortable feelings on this. I'd prefer it if he laid off LJ though, because we are in a better position than we were in January, or after Wolves away. Why not try laying into the sags coming on here instead, OP, that's how I've tried to cope since Saturday?!

 

Lay in to the sags?

My parents always told me not to pick on the weaker, less fortunate ones in life. Let alone the mentally retarded 

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NickJ

NickJ

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Posted
3 hours ago, BCFC_Dan said:

You're right but LJ's lack of games against the top 10 so far goes against him. Though he's not won a single point against a side in the top 10 he's only played 3 so it's statistically insignificant.

The numbers are as follows:

SC

Top 10: P11 W1 D4 L6 = 7pts / 11 games = 0.63ppg

Bottom 14: P15 W3 D5 L7 = 14pts / 15 games = 0.93 ppg

Total: 21pts / 26 games = 0.8ppg

JP

Top 10: P2 W1 D1 L0 = 4 pts / 2 games = 2ppg

Bottom 14: P1 W0 D0 L1 = 0 pts / 1 games = 0ppg

Total: 4pts / 3 games = 1.33ppg

LJ

Top 10: P3 W0 D0 L0 = 0 pts / 3 games = 0ppg

Bottom 14: P7 W6 D0 L1 = 18pts / 7 games = 2.6ppg

Total: 18pts / 10 games = 1.8ppg

If you combine Pemberton and Johnson you get 4pts from 5 games against the top 10 which, although not great, is better than Cotterill managed. 5 games is still fairly insignificant over a season, though.

If you use the stats to imagine Johnson had managed all of Cotterill's games as well we end up 32 points better off at this point and we'd be contesting a top 2 spot. I have to admit that seems unlikely, though.

Ultimately there are a lot of things that can be read into the numbers. My feeling is that some improvement would have occurred anyway post-Xmas as the team has settled into the division but that Cotterill's adherence to the tactics that worked last season and failure to recruit (I don't know if that's his fault but the problem went away when he did) held the team back massively in the first half of the season.

 

I like the bolded bit, but also have to correct you, LJ has won 3 points from the top 10, namely Ipswich. Although thinking about it, not sure why I said top 10, top half of the table would make more sense which brings in the defeat at Wolves.

So if you could just adjust all your statistics to reflect 3 points from a possible 15 against the top half........

Its a long time since I studied statistics but what I do recall is that statistically reliable results are obtained from surprisingly small samples, so I would suggest that a sample of 5 results or even 4 or even 3 from a population of 23 is more reliable than you might think.

I agree with your final paragraph, I do think we would have improved had SC remained, to suggest otherwise would be to suggest that SC would have been stupid as well as stubborn, plus our bad luck - I don't think it could be denied we had more than our fair share of that before SC left - would have continued for the remainder of the season. It would also have to assume that we would have continued with the same squad, ie no Tomlin for example.

There is another post which suggests that it will be more important to pick up points against Rotherham, Brentford, Huddersfield and Blackburn, than the others. I disagree, I don't see any of those 4 teams as being our rivals to beat relegation. Bolton and Charlton are already down, we just have to make sure we get enough points to stay ahead of Milton Keynes, who we get those against (probably no more than 2 wins at most) doesn't really matter. My point is that I think our only realistic hope, on results since LJ took over, is against those 4.

Now watch us beat Sheffield Wednesday and Derby and I have to eat my words.......

 

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ChippenhamRed

ChippenhamRed

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Shtanley said:

We have more points than Rotherham in our last 10. 

You can make the statistics fit any argument you want to make.

We might have more over the last 10, but Rotherham have W5 D1 in their last six. That's phenomenal form - no point pretending otherwise.

Ultimately over 39 games there is a mere one point between us - that suggests we are very closely matched.

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Alessandro

Alessandro

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, NickJ said:

I like the bolded bit, but also have to correct you, LJ has won 3 points from the top 10, namely Ipswich. Although thinking about it, not sure why I said top 10, top half of the table would make more sense which brings in the defeat at Wolves.

So if you could just adjust all your statistics to reflect 3 points from a possible 15 against the top half........

Its a long time since I studied statistics but what I do recall is that statistically reliable results are obtained from surprisingly small samples, so I would suggest that a sample of 5 results or even 4 or even 3 from a population of 23 is more reliable than you might think.

I agree with your final paragraph, I do think we would have improved had SC remained, to suggest otherwise would be to suggest that SC would have been stupid as well as stubborn, plus our bad luck - I don't think it could be denied we had more than our fair share of that before SC left - would have continued for the remainder of the season. It would also have to assume that we would have continued with the same squad, ie no Tomlin for example.

There is another post which suggests that it will be more important to pick up points against Rotherham, Brentford, Huddersfield and Blackburn, than the others. I disagree, I don't see any of those 4 teams as being our rivals to beat relegation. Bolton and Charlton are already down, we just have to make sure we get enough points to stay ahead of Milton Keynes, who we get those against (probably no more than 2 wins at most) doesn't really matter. My point is that I think our only realistic hope, on results since LJ took over, is against those 4.

Now watch us beat Sheffield Wednesday and Derby and I have to eat my words.......

 

Not sure what your argument is here Nick, you say "since LJ took over" - our results against the top 10 teams have been worse, or we are less likely to win against top 10 teams under LJ than under SC?

And yet you've agreed SC won 1 from 11 and LJ won 1 from 3 against the top 10. So that's the same, right?

You mentioned top half - SC won 2 from 12, LJ 1 from 4. SC 17% win ratio - LJ 25% win ratio?

So we are, statically, more likely to win against a top half team under LJ than SC.

Yes, obviously, we are more likely to pick up points against Rotherham, Brentford, Huddersfield and Blackburn, than against Wednesday or Derby, but to suggest we would have been more likely to have picked up points against the latter two if SC were still here is, frankly, tenuous at best. Your loyalty to SC is admirable, but I think it's plain to see, that opinion flies in the face of reason and fact.

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Fordy62

Fordy62

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, samo II said:

This is in danger of becoming a thread of 'Matt Smith is Awful' proportions.

That said; has some serious competition from the 'I will Booo' thread - close run thing.

'I will Booo' is the one that always makes me laugh a little more. This thread is a little like Tottenham's Premier League season, very good, but not quite good enough. 

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Unan

Unan

Posted
Posted
On 8 March 2016 at 22:11, Andy082005 said:

Sorry but that was pathetic. The worst Wolves team I have ever seen and we could barely string a pass together.

Absolutely no ideas whatsoever on how to break a team down. Our play was pointless and aimless. We created nothing apart from the goal. 

Can't cross a ball to save their lives. Pretty much every cross was scuffed or put straight into the keepers hands. 

In the final third we really are dreadful and the fact we have not bought in a striker is pure negligence  and incompetence.

Bryan, Kodjia, Pack...awful. Wagstaff starting = laughable. Freeman....speechless.

Most worrying thing is the team spirit seems totally gone. Weak and soft....just like our manager was as a player.

Appointing Lee Johnson was a huge, huge mistake. I've watched enough football down the years to know this team has relegation written all over it. Truely woeful from City and if we go down...I've said it before, will be no more then Lansdown deserves.

 

:whistle:

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