Is promotion likely?

[Jack Dawe]

1 hour ago, reformed_red said:

Forget 'not ready'.

Forgot '4 windows...'

Forget 'more points already than last season'.

Forget 'Magnusson is God'.

Forget etc. etc. etc.....

REMEMBER: This season, is arguably one of the hardest line ups of Championship promotion contenders. I won't list teams as we all know who is in our league, but we'd have to have on hell of a season to even think about playoffs / promotion. The league is insanely strong, and will be a real tough fight at the top. 

Not this season for me. Although it will be nice to sit and enjoy some mid-table security without looking the other way!

It was three windows, not four. Three windows, four at the back, five pillars.

[spudski]

19 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Bournemouth are one example but then there are clubs like Burnley, Norwich, Cardiff etc who have been relegated quickly. Bournemouth are a bit of an anomaly with an exceptional manager but could easily go down this season.

Spudski's point is being made pragmatically, not necessarily with the optimism of a fan. Of course we all want us to win every game, but the reality is that the club probably aren't ready for the prem yet. We're only just becoming competitive in all areas (especially off the pitch) in this league.

very eloquently put Foggy...and is exactly my point

[One BCFC]

What excites me is that all the players we have bought and had already will only get better and already we have beaten relegated Aston Villa 3-1. 

No, we are far from promotion this season but give us 2/3 years and we will be a force in this league I believe.

[Jack Dawe]

2 minutes ago, downendcity said:

six geese a laying, seven swans a swimming and David Partridge in a pear tree.

Tottenham nine nil!

[downendcity]

4 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said:

It was three windows, not four. Three windows, four at the back, five pillars.

...six geese a laying, seven swans a swimming and David Partridge in a pear tree.

[Robbored]

Like others have said a couple of seasons consolidation in the SBC would give us a more realistic chance of promotion. That's said pushing for a pray-off place makes the season more interesting but personally I wouldn't be hugely disappointed not to make it or even losing in the pray-offs.

Numerous promoted teams don't survive in the PL largely because the step up is vast in terms of quality and unless a club has money and a decent manager ( like B'muff ) they come down again. 

City my or may not have another like Eddie Howe in LJ but even if LJ turns out to be a wonder manager he may not have the required skills to establish City in the promised land. 

I know a Baggies fan whose club at the time were yoyoing between the Championship and the PL and he hated it. One season was terrific and the next a huge disappointment. Eventually they became established in the PL.

if/when City reach the Promised Land I'd hope we'd have a good chance of staying there.

[The Coach]

1 minute ago, Robbored said:

Like others have said a couple of seasons consolidation in the SBC would give us a more realistic chance of promotion. That's said pushing for a pray-off place makes the season more interesting but personally I wouldn't be hugely disappointed not to make it or even losing in the pray-offs.

Numerous promoted teams don't survive in the PL largely because the step up is vast in terms of quality and unless a club has money and a decent manager ( like B'muff ) they come down again. 

City my or may not have another like Eddie Howe in LJ but even if LJ turns out to be a wonder manager he may not have the required skills to establish City in the promised land. 

I know a Baggies fan whose club at the time were yoyoing between the Championship and the PL and he hated it. One season was terrific and the next a huge disappointment. Eventually they became established in the PL.

if/when City reach the Promised Land I'd hope we'd have a good chance of staying there.

 

Much like Norwich are now, and potentially Burnley.

Blimey I remember how much of a yoyo West Brom were. Way they are going, could happen again.

 

[Sir Colby-Tit]

4 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Like others have said a couple of seasons consolidation in the SBC would give us a more realistic chance of promotion.

Personally, I reckon a top two finish this season will give us a much better chance.

 

[Robin Ashton]

Imagine we have a fantastic season and are on course for promotion, would you be wanting the wheels to come off so we fail to go up? Or we make the play off final, will you be hoping we lose? Do you think SL would say to LJ ease up, we don't want to go up too soon?

[Jack Dawe]

3 minutes ago, Robin Ashton said:

Imagine we have a fantastic season and are on course for promotion, would you be wanting the wheels to come off so we fail to go up? Or we make the play off final, will you be hoping we lose? Do you think SL would say to LJ ease up, we don't go up too soon?

No. No. And no. Or, as Flinty would put it: "No, no, no."

[Guest]

How ready does one need to be to get up there, take £100m and reinvest and go again? If we don't grow at the same pace as our best players then we risk losing them and struggling to replace with similar quality - see Kodjia. After Kodjia then next window or summer comes Flint, or perhaps Bryan, if he keeps his pace of progression then Reid, Magnusson (potentially), O Donnell must be impressing a few.

I get the sentiment you need to have the infrastructure in place but I respectfully disagree. £100m can buy you the infrastructure for your next punt. West Brom were delighted to yo-yo and build each time no doubt. Watford have not done badly out of it and you have to question are they being run well... crap ground, chopping changing managers etc; and when they first went up no better infrastructure or run than we were.

I can see coming up from League One to the Championship you might want to be ready for it, but not the Prem. The riches are good enough now that you can come down and make yourself ready for it. Not the Championship, you'll get booted out with little but a thanks for participating. In the Prem you get booted out with a thanks for participating and here's £100m to prop you up. It's literally the league that rewards failure and failure is an option.

[Murraysrightplum]

Not likely but possible. I think there are too many really good teams in this league and it will be very very tough. Whoever gets promoted will deserve it without doubt.

top 10 would be great with an outside chance of the play offs. Keep the key player fit and maybe sign one or two in January and we should do ok

[Alessandro]

You can be as prepared as you like, but it won't guarantee you success. Either in going or staying up.

I'm not saying don't plan, but I think in football there is no 'end game', there is always next year. Planning is forever changing and evolving, as football is itself.

Football is full of enough disappointment, whether you like it or not there is more disappointment than satisfaction.

So grab the good times with both hands, whenever they come. At worse case scenario, you get £100m. £100m.

Can we go up? Stay injury free and build some momentum, the signs look like we can challenge the play offs. 

[Murraysrightplum]

Imagine if we had this team and club structure in the play off final season! We'd still be in the prem now!!!

shame it's taken until now for the club to sort itself out and the league is a lot tougher due to parachute payments etc

[ExiledAjax]

There's a chance.

I've looked at some stats from last season (this is a bit of a repeat post from another thread).

After 5 games last season we'd scored 6 and conceded 10.

Now, after 5 games we have scored 7 and conceded 5.

So, on this very solid basis I am going to say we will score 16.6% more goals than last year and concede only half of what we conceded.

This gives a projected final tally of 63 goals scored and 36 conceded. That is roughly what Hull (69, 35) and Boro (63, 31) got last year.

Now, if you look at the records of the teams that were 5th, 6th and 7th at this time last year (Cardiff, Boro and Birmingham respectively) they had scored/conceded 8/5, 7/3 and 7/4 respectively.  They finished 8th, 2nd and 10th respectively.

So, on this very solid statistical basis I am going to go with a solid prediction that we will finish in the top half and have a half decent chance of losing the play-off final again. 

Science.

[EnderMB]

2 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Really??? How do you work this out?

Quite easy, actually. We've sold a 20+ goal a season striker, and it's still the start of the season. We finished near the bottom last season, so it's only logical that we're not suddenly favourites. The league is also much stronger this year, at the top and at the bottom.

2 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Where does Tammy Abraham fit in to this damage? Currently looking as good as Kodjia if not better. Having brought in several new players who have a record of notching a goal or two and having Tomlin for the whole season not just a dozen or so games we are considerably stronger than last season.

Again, it's still early days. He could get injured, or his form could drop. Give him ten games, and we'll see where we go from there.

Also, he's a loanee, so if he does break Kodjia's record at 18 there's no way in hell he'll be back next season. He'll be on loan in the Premier League, or sold for £20m+.

2 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

They don't all have to start in the same line up. O'Neil and Magnusson have slotted straight in.

O'Neil has experience on his side. I'd say that rest still have some time to go before they're playing in LJ's vision. If they're good now, then we should assume that they'll only continue to improve as they learn how LJ wants them to play.

2 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

As far as Promotion is concerned- we are no where near ready and would definitely come to soon for any sustainability but as long as we're improving as a club and as a team then we're going in the right direction to challenge for the step up. Failure will not live with the Lansdown's persistence.

Absolutely. We're in a much better position than we were last season, but I'd go as far as to say that LJ's vision of three transfer windows to be competitive is too ambitious. I reckon we'd need another three from now to be a threat, Even then, if LJ manages to get us near the top of the table he deserves every plaudit coming his way.

[JamesBCFC]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

see my next post fella ;-) no point having a dream if it turns into a nightmare... Dream by all means...like Leicester

Were Leicester ready to win the league?

[spudski]

1 minute ago, JamesBCFC said:

Were Leicester ready to win the league?

Yes they were...they have a very solid infrastructure to their club. They have had people in place doing their jobs properly for some time...we have only just begun that journey. It's a disgrace how poorly this club has been run for well over 100 years. Nothing put in place to run properly.

The fact it's taken until approx.2014/15 to realise that, is quiet sobering.

If people are looking at Stats for promotion...to have a chance, we have to score approx. 12-15 more goals and concede approx. 35-40 less.

It's not the strikers we should be worried about, it's our overall defending, which tbf, I think we have addressed.

I still think our weakest part of the team is at RB. Little and Matthews ( injured ) aren't good enough at this level imo, and Korey is also injured still. Vyner out on loan as well.

I'd be looking for another RB. And if I were an opposition manager I'd be attacking down the left every time.

[ScottishRed]

2 hours ago, reformed_red said:

Forget 'not ready'.

Forgot '4 windows...'

Forget 'more points already than last season'.

Forget 'Magnusson is God'.

Forget etc. etc. etc.....

REMEMBER: This season, is arguably one of the hardest line ups of Championship promotion contenders. I won't list teams as we all know who is in our league, but we'd have to have on hell of a season to even think about playoffs / promotion. The league is insanely strong, and will be a real tough fight at the top. 

Not this season for me. Although it will be nice to sit and enjoy some mid-table security without looking the other way!

The reality is however that each season there will lots of "strong promotion contenders" three will go up in May - seriously doubt we will be one of them - to be replaced by three clubs coming the other way with £120m + in their pocket, so the difficulty factor is not going to decrease, in fact every season that passes its going to get harder.

The sooner we get promoted the better, we may become a bit of a 'yo-yo' club for a few seasons but every time we get relegated we get an incredible amount of money to help us go again. There is a very real risk the EPL will become a league of 24/25 with a variation of the 4/5 playing in the Championship for a year or two. Breaking into that 'club' is going to get harder with every passing year.

I am certain that all the players and staff are aiming for the play-off's realising that its unlikely but not impossible. I don't think we can view it as 'too early' we need to go for it and see where it takes us.

I would be content with mid-table mediocrity this season but I do hope going into March that we have a chance of the top six.

[spudski]

9 minutes ago, cynic said:

Thats exactly what was happening each game last season while Cotterill was here and Ayling was RCB as oppostion teams knew he'd go walkabout. Same when he was right back.

I've not seen much of it this season though...

Yes, they did when we played 352...and still did when we changed under LJ.

However...I've watched closely what teams are trying to do against us, and the most promising attacks and opportunities come down our right flank.

Worth watching highlights back to confirm this ;-)

[downendcity]

Well, if LJ wants Eurpoean football in 5 years, we'd better get our bl00dy finger out for promotion asap!

[chamlin_1]

I read the first ten comments and don't think I've ever seen more sense written on OTIB on any other thread. Promotion is the dream, but only if we have an excellent squad, well versed, with growth in the quality of additions in years to come. Thinking of Swansea and Palace of previous years. Saying this, I don't want to wait too long - perhaps next season please?...

[reformed_red]

Some interesting comments - thought I'd respond to them all in one hit @ScottishRed @cidered aboroad @cityboy @Jack Dawe @Fat Cigar.....

I think that we all agree - promotion is needed sooner rather than later, and I hear the arguments that the new TV money will only increase the competition. However....

How do we achieve that? I don't think spend big and gamble is the answer. Nor is hold onto players when we get insane bids. I think that buying and developing the talent in the way we have started is the answer. Interesting also that LJ has very publicly said he wants another senior coach, to fit with the structure. 

I don't disagree with anyone that promotion should be the aim, but I don't think it will be this year, as the league is too strong. Yes, it will get stronger but only for clubs looking to buy the best and most expensive players. Our model is different to that so in theory we can find an alternative route to promotion, eve as the league gets populated with more club with more money.

Our model will work, but will need time to be effective....

 

Anyway, I do hope we get promoted, but I don't think that we will, not this year anyway! Interest g perspectives from all mentioned though, sorry lads but couldn't be arsed to write individual replies to all.....

[Lorenzos Only Goal]

I'd like to see us competing in the top half of the table this season, we have an outside chance of sneaking the playoffs but I think thats about it, I would imagine we would finish ~ 11-13th

[ChippenhamRed]

3 hours ago, RightUpInCider said:

A good window but the loss of Kodjia without a replacement means I think a top ten finish is the best we can hope for.

Promotion needs goals and we have just lost a goal scorer. Tammy may bag us 20 but we at best need another goal scorer alongside him to push for promotion, but worst case we need cover in case on injuries and suspensions.

May be the Swedish guy is the unknown that could tip the balance. Someone clearly thinks high of him given the fee paid... let's hope they are proved right.

Also lets not forget that January will be here before we know it and if we are riding high in the table, with LJ stock increasing and playing a good style of football then we will hopefully start to see a higher quality of player attracted to our club.

One thing for sure... we are going in the right direction so surely a top 6 finishe is a matter of time if not this season?

 

Why is it commonly accepted on here that "we haven't replaced Kodjia"? We started the transfer window with three strikers plus Burns out on loan, and we finished it with three strikers plus Burns out on loan!

Tammy Abraham, for this season at least, IS the Kodjia replacement, and is already showing signs that he will score a similar number of goals. He had already ousted Kodjia in the central strikers role! And when Kodjia arrived, he was a relatively unknown striker bought for £2-3m from a foreign league - which is exactly what Engvall is.

If we'd signed Abraham AFTER Kodjia left, would people be more willing to accept him as the replacement? I know there is the perception that we needed a "proven" championship performer, but that comes with no guarantees. Kodjia wasn't proven when he arrived. I just don't understand why the players we've signed don't count as "replacements".

[WayOutWest]

3 hours ago, cityboy said:

 the financial gulf between the divisions widens ever further. £100m for finishing bottom, plus parachute payments? Not sure how the championship teams are meant to compete with that sort of financial power.

We are competing in the most unfair league in the world in any sport. The sooner we get out of it the better. Upwards of course!

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

1 hour ago, EnderMB said:

Quite easy, actually. We've sold a 20+ goal a season striker, and it's still the start of the season. We finished near the bottom last season, so it's only logical that we're not suddenly favourites. The league is also much stronger this year, at the top and at the bottom.

Again, it's still early days. He could get injured, or his form could drop. Give him ten games, and we'll see where we go from there.

Also, he's a loanee, so if he does break Kodjia's record at 18 there's no way in hell he'll be back next season. He'll be on loan in the Premier League, or sold for £20m+.

O'Neil has experience on his side. I'd say that rest still have some time to go before they're playing in LJ's vision. If they're good now, then we should assume that they'll only continue to improve as they learn how LJ wants them to play.

Absolutely. We're in a much better position than we were last season, but I'd go as far as to say that LJ's vision of three transfer windows to be competitive is too ambitious. I reckon we'd need another three from now to be a threat, Even then, if LJ manages to get us near the top of the table he deserves every plaudit coming his way.

Yes- we're talking about this season and Tammy has the same likelihood of being injured as Kodjia would have .He's already got 25% of Kodjia's total BCFC goal tally with some 42 League games to go. I would suspect that Gustav may be a slightly better deputy than Agard was and like I said- there's goals in our team all over now. I think everyone is fully aware that Tammy will depart but it gives BCFC almost a year to get replacements although I suspect sooner than this.

My point was based around your statement that we're 'more likely to get relegated than promoted'. I just don't think we're likely to do either this season and I'm fine with that so long as we're heading North.

 

[JamesBCFC]

13 minutes ago, WayOutWest said:

We are competing in the most unfair league in the world in any sport. The sooner we get out of it the better. Upwards of course!

When did we join La Liga?!*

*ignore this if they have done away with the rule that means Barca and Real Madrid get over 80% of the money.

[Son of Fred]

5 hours ago, Tuggin over Tomlin said:

Now when LJ first came in he said that he would need 3/4 transfer windows. Now judging by his first, come the 4th we'll be a force. I look at the team now and for the first time in our more recent championship days we look like a serious top 10 team. I honestly wouldn't swap Flint and Magnusson for any other teams central defenders. When Smith is back and 100% him and O'Neil arguably one of the best midfield duos in their positions. Obviously we would have liked that quality striker to replace Kodjia but Abraham looks as though he'll hit the 20 mark and Engvall could yet turn out to be a gem.

Now top 10 teams are promotion contenders. Do you reckon we can finish in the play offs this season? We're off to a cracking start and what seems like 3 of our hardest fixtures behind us, which we came out of with our heads held high, can we keep it up for the rest of the season?

I think we'll have a top half finish, be disappointing if we don't considering the amount of money we've spent. Which if we do, we then might be able to attract that next level of player which will boost us up and we can have a real go at it, if we did finish in the play offs it would be a season to early for us. I know some fans might want here and now success but I think this season we'll get top half and then next year LJ and co will really go for it. Certainly exciting ones ahead. 

Not really likely to be top half....a good solid season with no relegation worrys should be seen as a step forwards-though I know many here would be gutted with a12/15th place finish I would see steady progression.

[Alessandro]

58 minutes ago, spudski said:

Yes, they did when we played 352...and still did when we changed under LJ.

However...I've watched closely what teams are trying to do against us, and the most promising attacks and opportunities come down our right flank.

Worth watching highlights back to confirm this ;-)

Off the top of my head - This happened all afternoon against Newcastle, with Gouffran hugging that touch line. Ironically they didn't score from there though! 

Villa's goal and a clear chance for a second came down our right.