Ashton gate halt and the Portishead rail line (Merged)

[WarksRobin]

41 minutes ago, pillred said:

Yes it's at least double the original estimate, which is why the current estimate of the cost of the Portishead line should be ignored as it will almost certainly be at least double by 2026. And very few large projects ever come in on budget, can you name me one?

The original was an estimate based on a route alignment. It needed design work, environmental assessment and consultation to work out the budget cost for the full scheme, which it is now in line with

Heathrow Terminal 2, almost all recent major road schemes on the Strategic Road Network, Birmingham Airport runway extension were delivered on time and budget

Of course there are failures - Crossrail / Elizabeth Line for one . I'm not in denial but to claim it always happens is incorrect

[pillred]

1 hour ago, WarksRobin said:

The original was an estimate based on a route alignment. It needed design work, environmental assessment and consultation to work out the budget cost for the full scheme, which it is now in line with

Heathrow Terminal 2, almost all recent major road schemes on the Strategic Road Network, Birmingham Airport runway extension were delivered on time and budget

Of course there are failures - Crossrail / Elizabeth Line for one . I'm not in denial but to claim it always happens is incorrect

I never said it always happens; I said very few there is a difference.

[Lanterne Rouge]

Just for a bit of info re reopening closed lines the Okehampton - Exeter service has had 120,000 journeys on it since it started, twice what was expected.

If you build (reopen) it, they will come.

[italian dave]

I've heard it suggested several places recently that big cuts to railway capital projects is one of the places that Sunak and Hunt are looking to fill some of the £50bn black hole.

I don't know how far the Portishead line is in terms of being irreversible, but it feels like possibly not far enough.

I hope that Liam Fox has ensured his support for Sunk is as royally rewarded as Braverman.

[pillred]

3 hours ago, italian dave said:

I've heard it suggested several places recently that big cuts to railway capital projects is one of the places that Sunak and Hunt are looking to fill some of the £50bn black hole.

I don't know how far the Portishead line is in terms of being irreversible, but it feels like possibly not far enough.

I hope that Liam Fox has ensured his support for Sunk is as royally rewarded as Braverman.

From where I'm standing (living) apart from clearing a few brambles and a lot of meetings and talks and having had a good look along the proposed line myself then you are right nothing much has been done at all, it's all pie in the sky, the cost is escalating by the day and more and more people are working from home and now the bus fares have come down to more affordable levels in my humble opinion the project is dead in the water as should HS2 be as well as that will turn out to be the biggest white elephant since the Brabazon.

[Bedred31]

Bit of (admittedly tangential) context. In my area, Luton airport has just finished the Luton Dart- a monorail between the station and airport. It’s only 1.4 miles long. It replaces an efficient existing bus service. It cost £210m ( that was the 2017 budget- final costs are not confirmed yet). And it’s sole purpose is to reduce the journey time for passengers ( essentially EasyJet) by 4mins. This, I’m told, is ‘levelling up’- not helping people in Portzed to commute to work in the docks or the city.

[italian dave]

7 hours ago, pillred said:

From where I'm standing (living) apart from clearing a few brambles and a lot of meetings and talks and having had a good look along the proposed line myself then you are right nothing much has been done at all, it's all pie in the sky, the cost is escalating by the day and more and more people are working from home and now the bus fares have come down to more affordable levels in my humble opinion the project is dead in the water as should HS2 be as well as that will turn out to be the biggest white elephant since the Brabazon.

It’s clearly not ‘dead in the water’ and in fact seems about as close as it’s possible to get to becoming reality without being irreversible. That was really my thought: it’s still not quite at that point and may suffer as a result. 

HS2 on the other hand is - at least for the main sections - past that stage. It’s actually being built. And probably won’t be cut as a result. 

56 minutes ago, Bedred31 said:

Bit of (admittedly tangential) context. In my area, Luton airport has just finished the Luton Dart- a monorail between the station and airport. It’s only 1.4 miles long. It replaces an efficient existing bus service. It cost £210m ( that was the 2017 budget- final costs are not confirmed yet). And it’s sole purpose is to reduce the journey time for passengers ( essentially EasyJet) by 4mins. This, I’m told, is ‘levelling up’- not helping people in Portzed to commute to work in the docks or the city.

I believe the more recent assessments have suggested that the benefits will be two way: people travelling from Bristol to Portishead for work too. Portishead is a much bigger place now than it was when this was first discussed! 

[Port Said Red]

3 minutes ago, italian dave said:

It’s clearly not ‘dead in the water’ and in fact seems about as close as it’s possible to get to becoming reality without being irreversible. That was really my thought: it’s still not quite at that point and may suffer as a result. 

HS2 on the other hand is - at least for the main sections - past that stage. It’s actually being built. And probably won’t be cut as a result. 

I believe the more recent assessments have suggested that the benefits will be two way: people travelling from Bristol to Portishead for work too. Portishead is a much bigger place now than it was when this was first discussed! 

It's not just work though, looking at the traffic too and from the Gate the last couple of months has been depressing. When the Conference Centre project is up and running it's only going to get worse. Somehow we also need to persuade them to reconsider Ashton Gate Halt, it would be convenient for sport, but it's almost a 'must have' for the Conference crowds.

If you are suited and booted or carrying display equipment, you don't want to be walking from Temple Meads or even Parsons St, you want the most convenient route in.

[East End Old Boy]

53 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

It's not just work though, looking at the traffic too and from the Gate the last couple of months has been depressing. When the Conference Centre project is up and running it's only going to get worse. Somehow we also need to persuade them to reconsider Ashton Gate Halt, it would be convenient for sport, but it's almost a 'must have' for the Conference crowds.

If you are suited and booted or carrying display equipment, you don't want to be walking from Temple Meads or even Parsons St, you want the most convenient route in.

I remember when the Ashton Gate halt was used for football “special” trains in the 70’s. The problem I see is that the scheduled service will be a two carriage train once an hour, getting home after an evening game maybe an issue, unless they have the brains to accommodate sporting and other events?

[Port Said Red]

8 minutes ago, East End Old Boy said:

I remember when the Ashton Gate halt was used for football “special” trains in the 70’s. The problem I see is that the scheduled service will be a two carriage train once an hour, getting home after an evening game maybe an issue, unless they have the brains to accommodate sporting and other events?

I don't think its about the brains as you put it, the problem with increasing frequency as I understand it is the lack of passing places on what is mostly a single track line. Others might have more detail?

[pillred]

3 hours ago, TomF said:

 Nothing at all! No just somewhere in region of £25m spent so far! Maybe just maybe you should have a good look through the DCO portal for the project to see what actually has been done 

You've never been for this project anyway so guess you’ll be delighted when it gets chopped 

£25m on what? a load of meetings proposals hot air I have been along the entire line from pill to Portishead not one thing has been done nothing, they should build a park and ride at Portbury and pick up the line there it would save at least half the budget and yes I am not keen on the whole idea as I see it for the white elephant it will become with trains running half empty at best most of the day. 

[TonyTonyTony]

2 minutes ago, pillred said:

£25m on what? a load of meetings proposals hot air I have been along the entire line from pill to Portishead not one thing has been done nothing, they should build a park and ride at Portbury and pick up the line there it would save at least half the budget and yes I am not keen on the whole idea as I see it for the white elephant it will become with trains running half empty at best most of the day. 

Do you commute into Bristol? If you did, i suspect you might think differently. 

[pillred]

1 minute ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Do you commute into Bristol? If you did, i suspect you might think differently. 

Not any more luckily, look I know it is a nightmare but I'm just not sure unless they are going to stop at convenient places that many people would use it, of course there are people that work at Temple Meads my wife did and it will be great for tourists as well which might be the best way to sell the whole project out of the usual commuting times I see it as being underused I think my idea of picking up the train at just off the Portbury hundred at say Gordano might be another option and would halve the cost of the entire project. 

[East End Old Boy]

31 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I don't think its about the brains as you put it, the problem with increasing frequency as I understand it is the lack of passing places on what is mostly a single track line. Others might have more detail?

You’re correct about the frequency, as there would have to be additional infrastructure costs to accommodate a more regular service.

My (negative) thinking would be that trains may not run to Portishead after 10pm!

[archie andrews]

45 minutes ago, East End Old Boy said:

I remember when the Ashton Gate halt was used for football “special” trains in the 70’s. The problem I see is that the scheduled service will be a two carriage train once an hour, getting home after an evening game maybe an issue, unless they have the brains to accommodate sporting and other events?

Brains and bristol city council never known to be in the same sentence ever.... 

[James54De]

3 minutes ago, pillred said:

Not any more luckily, look I know it is a nightmare but I'm just not sure unless they are going to stop at convenient places that many people would use it, of course there are people that work at Temple Meads my wife did and it will be great for tourists as well which might be the best way to sell the whole project out of the usual commuting times I see it as being underused I think my idea of picking up the train at just off the Portbury hundred at say Gordano might be another option and would halve the cost of the entire project. 

I don’t understand how one can be anti reopening much needed train lines. This line most certainly won’t be a ‘white elephant’, and is more likely to have the problem of demand much outstripping capacity. 

[pillred]

9 minutes ago, TomF said:

The cost of the line from Portbury Dock Jnc to Portishead is the least expensive part of it it. 

How about you read the portal and see the amount of work has been done? 

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-west/portishead-branch-line-metrowest-phase-1/?ipcsection=overview

 

Had a quick look where does it list any actual work done on any infrastructure? 

[22A]

9 hours ago, East End Old Boy said:

I remember when the Ashton Gate halt was used for football “special” trains in the 70’s. The problem I see is that the scheduled service will be a two carriage train once an hour, getting home after an evening game maybe an issue, unless they have the brains to accommodate sporting and other events?

I remember Huddersfield away by train a few years back. Wakefield - H'field was a a 2 coach train. After the game even the locals were surprised and dismayed to find Northern had provided just a single carriage back to Wakefield and many fans had to stand around waiting for the next one.

[winsaw]

9 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

I don't think its about the brains as you put it, the problem with increasing frequency as I understand it is the lack of passing places on what is mostly a single track line. Others might have more detail?

That's exactly the issue there will not be the capacity on the line for more than one train a hour,

The line is being reopened to the most simple spec possible, Pill will only have one platform reopened so trains will not be able to pass there means the train will need to able to get from temple meads to Portishead and back in a hour, 

Opening a station at Ashton gate would add 3 minutes in each direction which they don't want to do, 

The station at Ashton gate can't be reopened on it past site as you can't build a new station on a curve so it would need to be somewhere near the level crossing but it's unclear if there is the land here to do it ,

Also the line would need to be double from parson st to a new Ashton gate station adding a lot of cost also as having Ashton gate open would see the need for 2 units on the line increasing the cost, plus the line between temple meads and parson st would need to be put back to 4 track more extra cost,

So at the moment there is zero chance of a station at Ashton gate, 

[italian dave]

4 hours ago, 22A said:

I remember Huddersfield away by train a few years back. Wakefield - H'field was a a 2 coach train. After the game even the locals were surprised and dismayed to find Northern had provided just a single carriage back to Wakefield and many fans had to stand around waiting for the next one.

They need something like this….

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/10/31/4550-seats-and-7-drivers-switzerland-set-to-run-the-longest-passenger-train-in-the-world

[22A]

the line that was reopened in Scotland from Edinburgh to Tweedbank. That was built as single line.

Now the authorities wish they had doubled it throughout to allow more frequent trains.

[pillred]

6 hours ago, 22A said:

the line that was reopened in Scotland from Edinburgh to Tweedbank. That was built as single line.

Now the authorities wish they had doubled it throughout to allow more frequent trains.

Hindsight, if everybody had it Specsavers would go bankrupt. 

[Port Said Red]

1 minute ago, TomF said:

Granted full approval, at last

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-west/portishead-branch-line-metrowest-phase-1/?ipcsection=docs

 

The cynic in me says just in time for the £50bn in Gov spending seeing it shelved.

Slash and burn economics at its best.

[italian dave]

5 minutes ago, TomF said:

Granted full approval, at last

https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-west/portishead-branch-line-metrowest-phase-1/?ipcsection=docs

 

That’s good news.

Now we just have to keep fingers crossed that Thursday doesn’t bring it all crashing down again with cuts to rail capital funding.

Edit: you beat me to pressing the submit button @Port Said Red. I think there’s good reason for our cynicism about this in Portishead! 

Edited November 15, 2022 by italian dave

[italian dave]

1 hour ago, TomF said:

Nah I do get your cynicism (is that the right word!) but I'm little bit encouraged by the fact they didn't have to approve it yesterday.  NSC very clearly asked for it to be made no later than 14th Nov so it didn't incur anymore costs.  They could have just let it run out to dry all way into Feb next year so doing it now would suggest that they're perhaps pushing forward.  That combined with the fact its now a DfT project gives me hope.   A lot of the money isn't central government either.. but they will have to surely accept that some construction projects have to help try and reverse the negative growth pattern we're in..   awaiting Thursday with trepidation. 

Sceptical is probably the right word. 

I’m hopeful too that all this points in the right direction. But I’ve just read/heard several times recently that rail specifically may be a target for infrastructure investment cuts. 

Anyway, not long to wait, so fingers crossed. 

[italian dave]

6 minutes ago, TomF said:

I can see HS2 2A/2B phases getting kicked into touch. That could bring in upward of £10bn cuts. On the face of the Portishead line £30m was already budgeted back in 2017 and £15m recently.. neither are exactly going to make a dent in the deficit. 

I’m not sure that me paying an extra 1% tax would make a big dent either, but doesn’t mean it won’t happen!

I assume it would be a cut to the overall budget that the Portishead line forms part of. So Thursday would just be an announcement of a cut to that budget. I don’t imagine Portishead will get a specific mention. That would come later. 

But let’s hope! 

[archie andrews]

Would sum this area up for development if they give us good news today and shoot us all down in flames thursday or whenever.... Bet the cycle and scooter mob get what they want mind.... 

[Ska Junkie]

2 hours ago, TomF said:

I can see HS2 2A/2B phases getting kicked into touch. That could bring in upward of £10bn cuts. On the face of the Portishead line £30m was already budgeted back in 2017 and £15m recently.. neither are exactly going to make a dent in the deficit. 

I would imagine the 'pie in the sky' Bristol underground would be, erm, grounded! 

It was never gonna happen anyway. 

[TonyTonyTony]

Great news! Im travelling on trains quite a lot now, and its nearly impossible to get a taxi from N&B so find my self getting a taxi to Parkway at 40 quid a pop.

I will believe it, however, when i see the diggers. Phoenix way is going to be a total nightmare

[Slippin cider]

It won’t happen in my lifetime…..