Hypothetical

[spudski]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Mmmm, was chatting to someone last night who mentioned he (MA) was heaviliy involved in recruitment before Cotts arrived, and that was disastrous.  He may we’ll be the weak (bullshitting) link.

Not a lot wrong with that team.  I always though the 17/18 Reid would be a better partner for Kodjia than Reid and Tammy.  I saw glimpses of Reid / Kodjia in 15/16 (MKD 1st half, where he played behind JK) and we “battered them” drawing 1-1 . We just didn’t take our chances.

No agenda, I started the thread and it’s had some decent, sensible comments.  As you’ll see from Bob and Allesandro it’s stayed on track.  I thought it was an interesting topic.

Never thought you had an Agenda mate...but others do, and will latch on to threads like this to make points...to knock LJ and make out SC was much better etc. The Freeman of today...to when we had him etc...remember all the threads about no end product when he was here.

I guess... if you take the players for what they were at the time, rather than for what they are now, or before those periods, it would make sense as a fun thread...but nothing more, as it serves no purpose other than that....I'm sure you'd agree.

[spudski]

5 minutes ago, RumRed said:

None of this is real unless we can bring the two teams together, might prove tricky! 

For what it's worth...the team we have now, compared to the team we had back then, at those exact levels of development, not as they are now as players, or before in their careers, would piss all over the SC side on average.

SC was relegation fodder in this league.

All hypothetical....as a one off...who knows...SC when he as smashing league 1 could win...LJ when he was beating Man Utd could win. It's a won off hypothetical game...similar to round 3 of the FA Cup :laugh:

[RumRed]

3 minutes ago, spudski said:

For what it's worth...the team we have now, compared to the team we had back then, at those exact levels of development, not as they are now as players, or before in their careers, would piss all over the SC side on average.

SC was relegation fodder in this league.

All hypothetical....as a one off...who knows...SC when he as smashing league 1 could win...LJ when he was beating Man Utd could win. It's a won off hypothetical game...similar to round 3 of the FA Cup

Exactly, a one off between the two could be any result.  SCs team in their pomp I reckon would have enough to take on our current team where we are now.

The Man U LJ team would beat ‘em squarely.

The only thing I’m glad of is that I don’t have to watch this team now vs Cotts at the end of his reign.  Snooze fest.

[bcfcredandwhite]

The other thing to take into consideration is that the Bryan, Flint and Reid under Cotts, whilst solid players, were nowhere near the top players that they became under LJ. In fairness I accept that they MIGHT have done the same under Cotts - we will never know, but they DID under Lee. 

So, if the SC team of this thread contains those 3 AS THEY WERE back then under Cotts then LJs team would beat them comfortably. That team back then was headed back to L1 at a rate of knots  

 

[Davefevs]

5 hours ago, Alessandro said:

 

Out of interest - what is the amounts of 1 and 3? I see you put the loss in for 2 - do you have the other figures to hand?

Ok, banged out a spreadsheet tonight.  Thanks to @1960maaan on another thread for reminding me of Lucic, Ekstrand etc.  There will be a few anomalies in the data where undisclosed fees, sell-on percentages etc.  It won’t include loan fees / fines, signing on fees, mutual contract cancellations which will’ve cost us too. 

Summary:

1)

Johnson has spent £34.35m since arriving here.  Doesn’t include Adelakun tribunal fee yet tbc.

Johnson has received £36.25m since arriving here (net of sell-on money due to Swindon-Flint and Angers-Kodjia)

So he’s £1.90m up on pure transfers.

2)

In terms of players he’s bought and sold within his time here £7.60m out / £5.55m in (£2.05m down)

If anyone wants the Excel, DM me.

3)

just add £9m to 2)....so £6.95m up.

4)

I also did a very subjective view of the current squad’s value if we were to transfer them in this coming January Window and reflective of how long they have left on their contract, e.g. Pisano OOC is summer is not gonna receive a fee in January.  In some cases where I’m undecided, e.g. Eliasson (£1.8m) / Paterson (£0.5m), I’ve plumped for us getting the same back.  This is probably the best unbiased evaluation of LJ’s transfer business i could do imho

as per 1) spent £34.35.

My valuation is of current squad together with the players bought and sold by LJ is £29.15.

So he’s £5.2m down.

The two best signings are Webster and Brownhill, although with Webster we may have to pay Ipswich a sell-on percentage and any other clauses reached....possibly none base on selling him in January.

5)

if you take an increased wage bill and other expenses against turnover, and an annual gap of £15m, we need to be better in our overall recruitment a) if we aim to be fully sustainable or b) at least inside FFP.

Where we can of course cover this gap is by bringing players through the Academy.  The values of the key ones:

- O’Leary

- Kelly

- Vyner

and possibly 

- Semenyo

- McCoulsky

arent included in the above, but like Reid you can start to attribute credit to LJ for their development.

 

[spudski]

8 minutes ago, RumRed said:

Exactly, a one off between the two could be any result.  SCs team in their pomp I reckon would have enough to take on our current team where we are now.

The Man U LJ team would beat ‘em squarely.

The only thing I’m glad of is that I don’t have to watch this team now vs Cotts at the end of his reign.  Snooze fest.

Interesting the 'snooze fest' comment.

If we were playing the same way under SC and in the relegation zone approx. after 4 seasons up...would you feel the same?

The first and second seasons up after promotion for any team...seem to be exciting.

After that...it becomes the norm. The excitement has waned...

What we are seeing right now...is pretty much what every team in the championship does week in week out.

Not many teams in this league have the fans out of their seats every week. It's become a mini prem...where it's a win at all costs regime, where entertainment often goes out of the window.

The feeling around the Club at the moment is a reflection of an average Championship side, that won't go up and won't go down.

We've become what Ipswich were for many years.

[RumRed]

3 minutes ago, spudski said:

Interesting the 'snooze fest' comment.

If we were playing the same way under SC and in the relegation zone approx. after 4 seasons up...would you feel the same?

The first and second seasons up after promotion for any team...seem to be exciting.

After that...it becomes the norm. The excitement has waned...

What we are seeing right now...is pretty much what every team in the championship does week in week out.

Not many teams in this league have the fans out of their seats every week. It's become a mini prem...where it's a win at all costs regime, where entertainment often goes out of the window.

The feeling around the Club at the moment is a reflection of an average Championship side, that won't go up and won't go down.

We've become what Ipswich were for many years.

I’m not particularly pro SC (He had to go when he did).  I’m not anti LJ as a person (though think he should have been gone a while ago). But as is constantly mentioned who’d do a better job, I certainly don’t know.

I don’t know whether the signings are poor, the management is poor or whether it’s the structure from the top down.  New stadium bounce fading too.  

Something just feels ‘beige’ about the whole thing.  Quality of the football is lacklustre and feels like we’re treading water.  Maybe I just prefer the excitement of either nearly drowning or doing a Phelps, boggo doggy paddling not doing it for me.

 

The grand statements from SL (expect better than last season, not getting any younger etc etc) and the bullsh@t from LJ post match also doesn’t help matters.

[Alessandro]

@Davefevs - thanks for that. 

No doubt money has been wasted - I wonder how much the 'wasted' money balance sheet is effected by the early foreign splurges they made? I imagine, take a few of those out and it would balance out a bit more? I say that only to highlight to the club, seems at least, to have learned and moved away from that approach in the last window.

4) Is an interesting one because we've seen how one good season for one player can add multi-millions to their value in no time in this current market.

Also, more importantly for me....buying and selling football players isn't a business in itself. They're not all investments, some may be, many won't be. Ultimately we buy players to come and play football, if we sell them on to make money, great, bonus. But the minimum requirement is they play football for us.

Take Magnússon for example, bought and sold for a similar amount or less but ultimately he played 52 games for us in that time too. 

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

@Davefevs - thanks for that. 

No doubt money has been wasted - I wonder how much the 'wasted' money balance sheet is effected by the early foreign splurges they made? I imagine, take a few of those out and it would balance out a bit more? I say that only to highlight to the club, seems at least, to have learned and moved away from that approach in the last window.

4) Is an interesting one because we've seen how one good season for one player can add multi-millions to their value in no time in this current market.

Also, more importantly for me....buying and selling football players isn't a business in itself. They're not all investments, some may be, many won't be. Ultimately we buy players to come and play football, if we sell them on to make money, great, bonus. But the minimum requirement is they play football for us.

Take Magnússon for example, bought and sold for a similar amount or less but ultimately he played 52 games for us in that time too. 

Ta.  Your final two paras in bold are very true, and that is where Amortisation of the fees helps too.

Yes, I ought to do a bit more work of just those players bought cheaper and hopefully developed to sell at a significant profit.  In its simplest notion, Brownhill is the stand-out and Engvall the worst, Djúric was my Toyah - It’s a mystery - signing!!

[Wolf Island]

If Cotts had got his way you could swap Williams and Wilbs for Maguire and Gray. Could tip it 15/16’s way. 

Havent posted on here since start of the season due to all the happy clapper abuse. Dismayed with what’s happening at the club.

[spudski]

2 minutes ago, RumRed said:

I’m not particularly pro SC (He had to go when he did).  I’m not anti LJ as a person (though think he should have been gone a while ago). But as is constantly mentioned who’d do a better job, I certainly don’t know.

I don’t know whether the signings are poor, the management is poor or whether it’s the structure from the top down.  New stadium bounce fading too.  

Something just feels ‘beige’ about the whole thing.  Quality of the football is lacklustre and feels like we’re treading water.  Maybe I just prefer the excitement of either nearly drowning or doing a Phelps, boggo doggy paddling not doing it for me.

 

The grand statements from SL (expect better than last season, not getting any younger etc etc) and the bullsh@t from LJ post match also doesn’t help matters.

Same here mate...in many ways.

The only reason I'm still sticking with LJ...is because I think he's the only one to be trusted to implement everything SL wants to put into place.

He wanted SoD to do it...he started it, but then fell foul as it was too much for one man to do...and first team results suffered.

SC agreed to do it...then went ferral...the rest is history.

LJ got courted over many years...to put in the infrastructure to run this Club professionally, to create stability...and more importantly someone who could agree to work with SL.

Once that is all created and we have a great foundation...a new manager/coach can come in seamlessly. Right now imo...we have problems. In the recruitment of players and too much influence by MA. This in turn has had a negative knock on effect to the first team. Other parts of the Club are growing in a positive manner...of which Ma has had influence. So it's a bit of a catch 22.

We lack imo...an influential figurehead on match day.

As each week goes by...I'm starting to think LJ is a good Coach, but not someone who will inspire on match day.

We have a Coach in LJ and a 'manager' in MA.

What we don't have is that man that can inspire...man manage or get emotions high.

LJ maybe level headed...unfortunately he grates with many fans because of his 'beige' mono tone persona...it's one level, whether we win, lose or draw. Very little passion is shown when it's needed.

That photo of LJ hugging the ball boy when we beat Man Utd meant so much...yet seems a lifetime away.

I actually don't think it's all LJ's fault...but a culmination of things in the background.

 

[RumRed]

@spudski  LJ with the ball boy was probably the 1st time I got properly emotional about football in quarter of a century or so.  I guess we were spoilt, he needs to channel some of that and drop the bull.  Maybe he can win some back, even if it’s at the wrong end of the table and backs against the wall blood and thunder.

 

I genuinely hope he can, just not convinced.  There was nothing from the technical area against Millwall apart from the mothers meeting about the subs.

[BS4 on Tour...]

1 hour ago, JamesBCFC said:

Bit dishonest to classify a half British, dual nationality person as non-British...

Dishonest???!!!!  He’s got an Italian father and plays for Italy...but dishonest???!!!! Quite an overreaction there.....

[spudski]

1 minute ago, RumRed said:

@spudski  LJ with the ball boy was probably the 1st time I got properly emotional about football in quarter of a century or so.  I guess we were spoilt, he needs to channel some of that and drop the bull.  Maybe he can win some back, even if it’s at the wrong end of the table and backs against the wall blood and thunder.

It's that memory I have of that 'moment' and how special it was, that I go back to when things are poor.

Deep down I know LJ wants to do well...he has the Club at heart.

He's far from perfect...as is SL and the rest of the staff.

Most want the best for the Club and regardless of results...it's nice to know everyone is fighting to get us better.

The only one I can't warm too is MA...not just his personality...but what I've heard about how he operates.

It should in theory feel like a family Club...a Bristolian owner wanting the best for the Club and a Coach and assistants that are fighting for us. The likes of Scott Murray, Jamie Mac...you see their emotion on match day. Holden...looks like he's gonna take lumps out of anyone near him.

LJ just comes across as meh!!!

Just wish he had a personality and some fire in his belly that showed outwardly.

I'd love him to lose it in public for a change...I think he would actually gain support if he did.

It just comes across in interviews like a Bank Manager saying you can't have a loan because of Brexit...you don't need to hear it...give us some fire and passion.

For all his faults SC got emotions running high...fans passions raised. And this is from me who detests SC.

Right now...we need some passion injected.

Going to Ashton Gate feels like a trip to the shopping Mall or Cinema on match day...something needs to change for the positive.

[RumRed]

@spudski  let’s get Joe in for a few hours to put some fire in his belly!  I’d pay for a three hour ‘session’ for LJ to have some behavioural coaching from him!

 

 

 

[spudski]

10 minutes ago, RumRed said:

@spudski  let’s get Joe in for a few hours to put some fire in his belly!  I’d pay for a three hour ‘session’ for LJ to have some behavioural coaching from him!

 

 

 

It definitely needs something...the one obvious...is that the Aston Gate faithful don't warm to 'grey' personalities...Coppell, SoD, LJ...all good coaches...but don't inspire the right way when results and performances are poor.

 

[RumRed]

Football fans in the main just want entertainment, flashes of skill and a touch of theatre.  It’s the ‘Don’t lose at all costs’ approach that’s killing the game.

[JamesBCFC]

29 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Dishonest???!!!!  He’s got an Italian father and plays for Italy...but dishonest???!!!! Quite an overreaction there.....

He's got a British mother, was born in England and is eligible to play for the England senior squad, but you're saying he isn't British...

Yes, that is dishonest as you deliberately ignored that he has dual nationality.

Not an overreaction.

[BobBobSuperBob]

38 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Dishonest???!!!!  He’s got an Italian father and plays for Italy...but dishonest???!!!! Quite an overreaction there.....

 

4 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

He's got a British mother, was born in England and is eligible to play for the England senior squad, but you're saying he isn't British...

Yes, that is dishonest as you deliberately ignored that he has dual nationality.

Not an overreaction.

Genetically his right side was Italian

He was right footed 

 

He was Italian

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, spudski said:

It's that memory I have of that 'moment' and how special it was, that I go back to when things are poor.

Deep down I know LJ wants to do well...he has the Club at heart.

He's far from perfect...as is SL and the rest of the staff.

Most want the best for the Club and regardless of results...it's nice to know everyone is fighting to get us better.

The only one I can't warm too is MA...not just his personality...but what I've heard about how he operates.

It should in theory feel like a family Club...a Bristolian owner wanting the best for the Club and a Coach and assistants that are fighting for us. The likes of Scott Murray, Jamie Mac...you see their emotion on match day. Holden...looks like he's gonna take lumps out of anyone near him.

LJ just comes across as meh!!!

Just wish he had a personality and some fire in his belly that showed outwardly.

I'd love him to lose it in public for a change...I think he would actually gain support if he did.

It just comes across in interviews like a Bank Manager saying you can't have a loan because of Brexit...you don't need to hear it...give us some fire and passion.

For all his faults SC got emotions running high...fans passions raised. And this is from me who detests SC.

Right now...we need some passion injected.

Going to Ashton Gate feels like a trip to the shopping Mall or Cinema on match day...something needs to change for the positive.

Wish he’d lose it with MA, and then we’d finally see everyone’s true colours.  Get Cindi Lauper in!

2 hours ago, RumRed said:

@spudski  let’s get Joe in for a few hours to put some fire in his belly!  I’d pay for a three hour ‘session’ for LJ to have some behavioural coaching from him!

 

 

 

JJ with Tommy Docherty Wannabe and Lookalike!!!

[Olé]

2 hours ago, spudski said:

LJ just comes across as meh!!!

Just wish he had a personality and some fire in his belly that showed outwardly.

I'd love him to lose it in public for a change...I think he would actually gain support if he did.

I agree that LJ appears to lack leadership of his players, and you would therefore imagine is not an inspirational figure on match days, but having read you on a couple of threads this past week complaining about the treatment that he gets on here, I want to challenge the above point as I think it distorts the criticism somewhat and therefore is a little contradictory. 

I've never been bothered by LJ's demeanour, in fact I don't agree he doesn't show any fire - I see him lose it with the fourth offficlal regularly, more so than many City managers, perhaps he doesn't do so with players, but that's a good thing, I'm not sure there are many managers who do anything other than give their players encouragement, which LJ also seems to do.

So on that basis LJ's emotion is and never was front and centre for my concerns, which have been solely about how uninspiring the football is, how unclear the strategy is, and how confusing the team selection and post match debriefs are. That all reflects on him as manager of course, but it's not the same thing as saying that he has some specific character flaw.

I only mention it as I do think it distorts your message when in one breath you deplore the hard time he gets on here, yet which I think in many cases stem only, quite reasonably, from poor football he produces, while in another breath you highlight personality faults. Not sure why those are more valid, or any less personal or unfair, than everything else he is accused of?

[spudski]

8 hours ago, Olé said:

I agree that LJ appears to lack leadership of his players, and you would therefore imagine is not an inspirational figure on match days, but having read you on a couple of threads this past week complaining about the treatment that he gets on here, I want to challenge the above point as I think it distorts the criticism somewhat and therefore is a little contradictory. 

I've never been bothered by LJ's demeanour, in fact I don't agree he doesn't show any fire - I see him lose it with the fourth offficlal regularly, more so than many City managers, perhaps he doesn't do so with players, but that's a good thing, I'm not sure there are many managers who do anything other than give their players encouragement, which LJ also seems to do.

So on that basis LJ's emotion is and never was front and centre for my concerns, which have been solely about how uninspiring the football is, how unclear the strategy is, and how confusing the team selection and post match debriefs are. That all reflects on him as manager of course, but it's not the same thing as saying that he has some specific character flaw.

I only mention it as I do think it distorts your message when in one breath you deplore the hard time he gets on here, yet which I think in many cases stem only, quite reasonably, from poor football he produces, while in another breath you highlight personality faults. Not sure why those are more valid, or any less personal or unfair, than everything else he is accused of?

I'm not going to give the bloke a hard time because of his personality and demeanour mate...he can't help that, he was born with it.  Just wish it bigger and he had that passion that connected on match day, especially in interviews after a game. No doubt he has passion for the club...but his personality imo doesn't warm to the fans in many respects.

In context of the conversation I was having with Rumred it makes sense.

[Chivs]

14 hours ago, spudski said:

For what it's worth...the team we have now, compared to the team we had back then, at those exact levels of development, not as they are now as players, or before in their careers, would piss all over the SC side on average.

SC was relegation fodder in this league.

All hypothetical....as a one off...who knows...SC when he as smashing league 1 could win...LJ when he was beating Man Utd could win. It's a won off hypothetical game...similar to round 3 of the FA Cup

That's #GasTalk (and spelling).  Our Round 3 game is real.