Table based on games played

[Shuffle]

If there wasn’t  point deductions for both Derby & Reading we would be 3 points clear of drop zone with 6 to play. I certainly wouldn’t be confident of us picking up enough points to stay up as at best can see us picking up a max of 6.

Would the goodwill that Pearson still carries with quite a few still prevail if the table was based on games played?  All hypothetical as points deductions have been made but would otib be as calm and considered as it is ? 

[DaveF]

No.

[GrahamC]

You’re right on 2 accounts mate.

It is hypothetical but also if we were sailing that close to the wind it would be less calm on here, not that personally I always think it is..

You could argue though it has also impacted Pearson’s decision making, although he would deny it I do think playing Bell, giving Cundy a run, Kalas dropping out is being done with next season in mind & in the knowledge that realistically we have been safe for about a month now.

Need to tell you an interesting story on Saturday when I see you just before KO, too

[Waconda]

5 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

If there wasn’t  point deductions for both Derby & Reading we would be 3 points clear of drop zone with 6 to play. I certainly wouldn’t be confident of us picking up enough points to stay up as at best can see us picking up a max of 6.

Would the goodwill that Pearson still carries with quite a few still prevail if the table was based on games played?  All hypothetical as points deductions have been made but would otib be as calm and considered as it is ? 

Yes because of the "there is literally no one who could coach these players any better." narrative that is constantly being spouted as an excuse.

 

[Super]

9 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

If there wasn’t  point deductions for both Derby & Reading we would be 3 points clear of drop zone with 6 to play. I certainly wouldn’t be confident of us picking up enough points to stay up as at best can see us picking up a max of 6.

Would the goodwill that Pearson still carries with quite a few still prevail if the table was based on games played?  All hypothetical as points deductions have been made but would otib be as calm and considered as it is ? 

Not sure Pearson would still be here tbh.

[Taz]

I've actually just posted this in response to a topic in the transfer forum about Han Noah, Scott and Semenyo being sold, and Pearson possibly walking if it were to happen. It's actually quite relevant for here as well so I'll copy it below: 

At least one will likely be going, and I agree that if all 3 are sold he could walk. 

Whilst I'm not a Pearson must stay, nor a Pearson must go person, I'm conflicted about him going. 

On the one hand, he's come in, assessed what the issues are, and after seeing/hearing his interviews and chats, I'm under no illusions that he will have spoken directly to SL and told him how things are, what the problems are, and solutions to said problems. Along with Gould in place, that side of things doesn't bother me.

On the other hand, he's now had plenty of time to implement his style, plans, and get to know the players and staff here. Yes his hands have been tied somewhat with the financial issues, and he hasn't been able to maybe make as many changes as he would have liked/needed, and certain players have been unlucky with injuries (Baker, King and James first come into my head). However, we still make schoolboy errors, still concede late, and still need at least 2 goals per game to get anything from it (on average). Him and Fleming were defenders at the top level in England, so it worries me deeply that we are so inept at the back, especially so late on in games.

If, selling all three meant that we get £50-60m (up front to be used immediately, ignore sell on fees and clauses for now), and at least half would be made available for Pearson to reinvest, then he may stick, and replace them, along with a few other vital missing cogs. Here's the kicker though, after seeing him bring in James (admittedly playing with an injury) King (unlucky with injury?) and Simpson, do I trust him with that amount of money?

If Pearson were to walk, would it be such a disaster? He has made it quite clear that he has a 3 year plan, and to  not expect too much too soon. 

I think along with those 3 young players initially mentioned (sorry for going off on a bit of a tangent), I would actually be more concerned with Wiemann being sold.....

It's a difficult scenario, because we've been told not too expect much. That being said though, we don't seem to be much better off than we were last year, and Pearson by the end of the season will have had more than a season in charge.

If he were to go (for whatever reason), then I would worry that we would be taking a huge step backwards once again, but also that the next man would be either Fleming (promotion) or another Johnson-like project (up and coming younger guy). Pearson I think is Steve's final throw of the "experienced" appointment, of which the last one (Coppell) ended before it had started really. He felt badly burned, however you could argue that it was partly his fault for becoming too involved in signing players "allegedly".

For me, I think that Pearson stays, until at least October, to see what happens in this upcoming transfer window, and to see how the start of next season pans out. If by mid October we are looking much like we do now, or worse, then maybe it's best for all to change things up.

This was always going to be a hard slog though, no matter who was appointed, and expectations should be low because we've been crippled financially (even before Covid). It is a tough one, but unless Pearson actually wants out himself, then October is the earliest that we should be thinking of making a change.

[grifty]

20 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

If there wasn’t  point deductions for both Derby & Reading we would be 3 points clear of drop zone with 6 to play. I certainly wouldn’t be confident of us picking up enough points to stay up as at best can see us picking up a max of 6.

Would the goodwill that Pearson still carries with quite a few still prevail if the table was based on games played?  All hypothetical as points deductions have been made but would otib be as calm and considered as it is ? 

Hypothetically if we had won all our games, we would be top of the league.

[Shuffle]

11 minutes ago, Taz said:

I've actually just posted this in response to a topic in the transfer forum about Han Noah, Scott and Semenyo being sold, and Pearson possibly walking if it were to happen. It's actually quite relevant for here as well so I'll copy it below: 

At least one will likely be going, and I agree that if all 3 are sold he could walk. 

Whilst I'm not a Pearson must stay, nor a Pearson must go person, I'm conflicted about him going. 

On the one hand, he's come in, assessed what the issues are, and after seeing/hearing his interviews and chats, I'm under no illusions that he will have spoken directly to SL and told him how things are, what the problems are, and solutions to said problems. Along with Gould in place, that side of things doesn't bother me.

On the other hand, he's now had plenty of time to implement his style, plans, and get to know the players and staff here. Yes his hands have been tied somewhat with the financial issues, and he hasn't been able to maybe make as many changes as he would have liked/needed, and certain players have been unlucky with injuries (Baker, King and James first come into my head). However, we still make schoolboy errors, still concede late, and still need at least 2 goals per game to get anything from it (on average). Him and Fleming were defenders at the top level in England, so it worries me deeply that we are so inept at the back, especially so late on in games.

If, selling all three meant that we get £50-60m (up front to be used immediately, ignore sell on fees and clauses for now), and at least half would be made available for Pearson to reinvest, then he may stick, and replace them, along with a few other vital missing cogs. Here's the kicker though, after seeing him bring in James (admittedly playing with an injury) King (unlucky with injury?) and Simpson, do I trust him with that amount of money?

If Pearson were to walk, would it be such a disaster? He has made it quite clear that he has a 3 year plan, and to  not expect too much too soon. 

I think along with those 3 young players initially mentioned (sorry for going off on a bit of a tangent), I would actually be more concerned with Wiemann being sold.....

It's a difficult scenario, because we've been told not too expect much. That being said though, we don't seem to be much better off than we were last year, and Pearson by the end of the season will have had more than a season in charge.

If he were to go (for whatever reason), then I would worry that we would be taking a huge step backwards once again, but also that the next man would be either Fleming (promotion) or another Johnson-like project (up and coming younger guy). Pearson I think is Steve's final throw of the "experienced" appointment, of which the last one (Coppell) ended before it had started really. He felt badly burned, however you could argue that it was partly his fault for becoming too involved in signing players "allegedly".

For me, I think that Pearson stays, until at least October, to see what happens in this upcoming transfer window, and to see how the start of next season pans out. If by mid October we are looking much like we do now, or worse, then maybe it's best for all to change things up.

This was always going to be a hard slog though, no matter who was appointed, and expectations should be low because we've been crippled financially (even before Covid). It is a tough one, but unless Pearson actually wants out himself, then October is the earliest that we should be thinking of making a change.

Good post and reflects exactly where I am with Pearson.

[DaveF]

19 minutes ago, Waconda said:

Yes because of the "there is literally no one who could coach these players any better." narrative that is constantly being spouted as an excuse.

 

Is there? For the most part people seem pretty realistic. Pearson has a tough job on his hands and he has done an OK if a slightly underwhelming job so far.

Obviously other managers may have done better, they also may have done worse.

Barnsley finished 5th last season, if they lose on Saturday they're as good as down so it could be worse...

[Mendip City]

I feel the point deductions have done SL and NP a massive favour. They mask the true extent of our footballing failings this year - as said above, ongoing issues with lack of identity, simple mistakes being made again and again, injury record little better than last year, lack of true investment in the squad. 
SL appears to be keeping his head down and NP holding the fort.
Forget  3 year plans, where’s the required investment in the squad going to come from? NP’s role will just be firefighting and trying to keep us where we are for the foreseeable. 
One of the problems now is turning around the psychological rut of a club struggling, used to losing going back years now (remember all of LJ’s awful runs?). History tells me that the next stop is likely to be League 1 (unfortunately). 
It needs some impetus- either from SL or outside investment and I think should that happen it will also need a change of team management to get a positive winning mindset back into the place. 

[Waconda]

8 minutes ago, DaveF said:

Is there? For the most part people seem pretty realistic. Pearson has a tough job on his hands and he has done an OK if a slightly underwhelming job so far.

Obviously other managers may have done better, they also may have done worse.

Barnsley finished 5th last season, if they lose on Saturday they're as good as down so it could be worse...

Fair comment. We will never know is the answer.

Barnsley is a great example of where a coach got more out of less last season. 

[Taz]

9 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

I feel the point deductions have done SL and NP a massive favour. They mask the true extent of our footballing failings this year - as said above, ongoing issues with lack of identity, simple mistakes being made again and again, injury record little better than last year, lack of true investment in the squad. 
SL appears to be keeping his head down and NP holding the fort.
Forget  3 year plans, where’s the required investment in the squad going to come from? NP’s role will just be firefighting and trying to keep us where we are for the foreseeable. 
One of the problems now is turning around the psychological rut of a club struggling, used to losing going back years now (remember all of LJ’s awful runs?). History tells me that the next stop is likely to be League 1 (unfortunately). 
It needs some impetus- either from SL or outside investment and I think should that happen it will also need a change of team management to get a positive winning mindset back into the place. 

That I think is the concern for most people. It's what we do - get promoted, flirt with promotion and/or a very promising cup run, have a few years slipping down the table, get relegated, reset, and build again.

If we can avoid the bit where we get relegated again, then we're not doing too badly. Form over the past 2 years though would suggest a relegation is/could be on the cards. Personally I think we will avoid that bit, but if Pearson is the man to change history repeating itself, then he needs to start next season a hell of a lot better. Goodwill only lasts a short time, people will soon change their tune if we start next season in a similar form to this one - even if there was another 2 clubs below us on points deductions.

[Mendip City]

4 minutes ago, Taz said:

That I think is the concern for most people. It's what we do - get promoted, flirt with promotion and/or a very promising cup run, have a few years slipping down the table, get relegated, reset, and build again.

If we can avoid the bit where we get relegated again, then we're not doing too badly. Form over the past 2 years though would suggest a relegation is/could be on the cards. Personally I think we will avoid that bit, but if Pearson is the man to change history repeating itself, then he needs to start next season a hell of a lot better. Goodwill only lasts a short time, people will soon change their tune if we start next season in a similar form to this one - even if there was another 2 clubs below us on points deductions.

Agree and yes he does need to improve things next season… he’ll just sound like broken record if not. The truth is the without the point deductions we’d have  been in a relegation battle his entire tenure. That’s not good for the health of the club. 
 

I hope we don’t get relegated but equally don’t want years more relegation form - it’s just not enjoyable! 
Trouble is, bouncing back would not be easy - League One is strong! 

[SydneyCity]

I’d like to think Nige wouldn’t have made the same decisions if there were no points deductions.

I was supportive of the “LJ is here so long as we’re improving in the league” stance that the club took - despite not liking his personality and having zero connection with the clubs in the bag that he was assembling. Hindsight shows that just focussing on the league position was a bit stupid of me.

Despite our position, I have seen some of the most entertaining football I’ve seen in years this season (yes there have been some shockers too) and I’m genuinely invested and interested in our crop of young players coming through and the resurgent Andi Weimann. I’m even going to go as far as saying the whole WSM strike force.

Roll on next year under Nige. It’s not perfect, sometimes it’s not even good, but it is Bristol City.

 

[Show Me The Money!]

@Taz Can’t see us getting anywhere near £50-£60 million. No chance. £15 million tops for all 3.

[steveybadger]

6 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

@Taz Can’t see us getting anywhere near £50-£60 million. No chance. £15 million tops for all 3.

Between the 2 I suspect, but hopefully zero !

[Roger Red Hat]

2 hours ago, Waconda said:

Yes because of the "there is literally no one who could coach these players any better." narrative that is constantly being spouted as an excuse.

 

You say that with the knowledge, a)our owners would appoint the correct option and, b)that person would want to come here! And c)who is it?

[Steve Watts]

19 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

@Taz Can’t see us getting anywhere near £50-£60 million. No chance. £15 million tops for all 3.

There is absolutely no chance in hell that we would accept an average of £5m for each of those players.  With our selling record over the last few years that simply sounds ludicrous.  Unless you meant £15m each for them, in which case yes, we may accept with hefty sell-ons added.

[Taz]

25 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

@Taz Can’t see us getting anywhere near £50-£60 million. No chance. £15 million tops for all 3.

 

4 minutes ago, Steve Watts said:

There is absolutely no chance in hell that we would accept an average of £5m for each of those players.  With our selling record over the last few years that simply sounds ludicrous.  Unless you meant £15m each for them, in which case yes, we may accept with hefty sell-ons added.

Agree with what @Steve Watts said.

Of course all hypothetical figures, but somebody (can't remember who - apologies) gave the Lloyd Kelly transfer as an example with regards to any potential transfer involving Scott. Firstly, Scott is not a defender, which in itself should result in a bigger starting position for a transfer fee. Secondly I think the potential  ceiling for Scott is higher than Kelly (in the respect that a bigger club than Bournemouth come in for him).

Semenyo slightly different as he hasn't been consistently scoring until this season, however the further forward you go in the team, the higher the fees become, so let's just say for arguments sake we get £20m for Scott, and £10-15m for Semenyo, because this is his best season. Han Noah, potentially the same as Antoine, so all three potentially between £40-50m. Of course that all depends on how much more active clubs are in the market this year, as well as how much they want our assets.

Let's not forget if a few of the "rumoured" clubs that are interested in any of the three get involved in a bidding war, then who knows what fee(s) we may get. We've set ourselves a precedent though when it comes to dealing with transfer fees, so any potential buyers need to be aware that we aren't pushovers.

I really hope we don't sell all 3, however they are the more likely to be on clubs wish lists.

For what it's worth, I think Bentley will be moved on in the summer as well. Just a feeling I have.

[Mendip City]

1 minute ago, Taz said:

 

Agree with what @Steve Watts said.

Of course all hypothetical figures, but somebody (can't remember who - apologies) gave the Lloyd Kelly transfer as an example with regards to any potential transfer involving Scott. Firstly, Scott is not a defender, which in itself should result in a bigger starting position for a transfer fee. Secondly I think the potential  ceiling for Scott is higher than Kelly (in the respect that a bigger club than Bournemouth come in for him).

Semenyo slightly different as he hasn't been consistently scoring until this season, however the further forward you go in the team, the higher the fees become, so let's just say for arguments sake we get £20m for Scott, and £10-15m for Semenyo, because this is his best season. Han Noah, potentially the same as Antoine, so all three potentially between £40-50m. Of course that all depends on how much more active clubs are in the market this year, as well as how much they want our assets.

Let's not forget if a few of the "rumoured" clubs that are interested in any of the three get involved in a bidding war, then who knows what fee(s) we may get. We've set ourselves a precedent though when it comes to dealing with transfer fees, so any potential buyers need to be aware that we aren't pushovers.

I really hope we don't sell all 3, however they are the more likely to be on clubs wish lists.

For what it's worth, I think Bentley will be moved on in the summer as well. Just a feeling I have.

I agree on Bentley - I’m also wary that some of the bigger Championship players might fancy Weimann… could be a massive rebuild needed if everyone goes. I can see HNM going but fee won’t be as high as some would hope - he’s still very much stop/start in his progress. Semenyo, if any Prem offers come in will be gone. I reckon the most likely to still be here is Scott, another year or two to develop - or if someone wants him now, we should look to agree a loan back to us… he’s not going to be a Prem regular next season.  
 

I’m almost of the mindset that we’d be better losing them all and starting again than losing one and only being able to clear a bit of debt and tinker with the existing squad.  

The challenge then is, can NP work some magic with a healthy war chest…. Or will losing players become next season’s reason/excuse for another struggle. 
 

 

[pongo88]

2 hours ago, grifty said:

Hypothetically if we had won all our games, we would be top of the league.

True, but that ignores the point being made by @Shuffle. - i.e. the points deductions are hiding the fact that City has slipped from a team pushing for the playoffs to a relegation standard team in less than 2 seasons. 

[Taz]

20 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

I agree on Bentley - I’m also wary that some of the bigger Championship players might fancy Weimann… could be a massive rebuild needed if everyone goes. I can see HNM going but fee won’t be as high as some would hope - he’s still very much stop/start in his progress. Semenyo, if any Prem offers come in will be gone. I reckon the most likely to still be here is Scott, another year or two to develop - or if someone wants him now, we should look to agree a loan back to us… he’s not going to be a Prem regular next season.  
 

I’m almost of the mindset that we’d be better losing them all and starting again than losing one and only being able to clear a bit of debt and tinker with the existing squad.  

The challenge then is, can NP work some magic with a healthy war chest…. Or will losing players become next season’s reason/excuse for another struggle. 
 

 

Can't argue with any of that. Han Noah is the one where we will get the least money for though I think.

[Ivorguy]

Better to regroup mid table in league 1 or struggle again at bottom of Championship?

I know which would give supporters something to cheer and give realistic hopes of promotion.

Only once in my over 70 years of following City have we ever been promoted from Championship level.  If my father, lifelong City supporter, were alive today he would be 105, and would still only have seen one promotion!

How will we ever get back to the Wedlock days when we competed at top level and reached FA Cup Final?  To do this we need a whole new mindset. I still believe NP has that mindset.

[Sir Geoff]

If, if, if we hadn't conceded so many late goals we would be comfortably in mid table, even looking at play offs. All hypothetical..To quote a well known football manager, It is what it is.

[The Journalist]

4 hours ago, Waconda said:

Yes because of the "there is literally no one who could coach these players any better." narrative that is constantly being spouted as an excuse.

 

Who said that?! Not being facetious, genuine question.

[Waconda]

6 minutes ago, The Journalist said:

Who said that?! Not being facetious, genuine question.

Dozens of times on threads on here. 

Don't a have list of who and when but can assure you I have read that nonsense multiple times over the last year.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Waconda

[LondonBristolian]

5 hours ago, Shuffle said:

If there wasn’t  point deductions for both Derby & Reading we would be 3 points clear of drop zone with 6 to play. I certainly wouldn’t be confident of us picking up enough points to stay up as at best can see us picking up a max of 6.

Would the goodwill that Pearson still carries with quite a few still prevail if the table was based on games played?  All hypothetical as points deductions have been made but would otib be as calm and considered as it is ? 

I think there are two considerations with hypothetical scenarios

1) The points deductions aren't random. Derby and Reading were deducted points to compensate for them gaining an unfair advantage by operating outside the spending restrictions that apply to other clubs. Therefore this hypothetical table is not necessarily fairer or more accurate than the real one.

2) Different outcomes produce different psychological responses. You could argue that Derby's results have been influenced by an "us against the world" mentality and that they may not have picked up as many points without a point to prove stemming from the points deduction. Similarly - as @GrahamCpoints out - our team selections and our own mentality may have been impacted by a belief we are essentially safe and planning for next season. If we actually were in the midst a relegation scrap, we would have approached the games differently (which could have been for better or worse).

I think my point is that - whilst I know you are being hypothetical - it is very likely that, had the points deductions not happened, the table would look quite different to the table you get when you remove the impact of the points deductions that have happened. Some clubs might have got better results and some might have got worse but I think the impact of points deductions on everything else means that - without those deductions - the table would be substantively different and we would likely not be three points clear of relegation. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by LondonBristolian
Minor grammar correction.

[Mendip City]

1 hour ago, Taz said:

Can't argue with any of that. Han Noah is the one where we will get the least money for though I think.

Agree with that and also, Weimann won’t command much of a few if anyone wants him (age/length of contract). On current form he’s worth way more to us than his market value*
 

*unless this season is a one off… 

[LondonBristolian]

4 hours ago, Waconda said:

Yes because of the "there is literally no one who could coach these players any better." narrative that is constantly being spouted as an excuse.

 

To be honest, I think there are plenty of managers who could coach these players better. But I don't think that's the consideration with Pearson. I don't think he was appointed as the best person to do a good job with the players we had but due to a realisation the model we had was not working, the squad we had wasn't good enough and we needed someone who was willing to overhaul the club in terms of the personnel, the coaching and the culture. 

At the moment, I think the jury is definitely out on whether we are moving in the right direction and - when we look back in the next couple of years - whether his appointment will prove to be a good thing or a bad thing. But I also think it's unfair to judge him simply on the standard of "is the the best person to coach the players we have?" because, if we were happy with the players we had, I'm not convinced we'd have appointed Pearson in the first place. 

[Waconda]

21 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

To be honest, I think there are plenty of managers who could coach these players better. But I don't think that's the consideration with Pearson. I don't think he was appointed as the best person to do a good job with the players we had but due to a realisation the model we had was not working, the squad we had wasn't good enough and we needed someone who was willing to overhaul the club in terms of the personnel, the coaching and the culture. 

At the moment, I think the jury is definitely out on whether we are moving in the right direction and - when we look back in the next couple of years - whether his appointment will prove to be a good thing or a bad thing. But I also think it's unfair to judge him simply on the standard of "is the the best person to coach the players we have?" because, if we were happy with the players we had, I'm not convinced we'd have appointed Pearson in the first place. 

A very sensible and balanced post.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Waconda