Reining in the Positivity

[downendcity]

Pesimism comes naturally to Bristolians -its in our DNA - so reigning in positivity should not be too difficult!

Under LJ I think we became acclimatised to him taking us from sublime to ridiculous, so that a run of promotion form would invariably be followed by an equal run of relegation form 

It's unlikely that we wil sustain the current run, and at some point our goalscoring will likely dry up and if our defensive frailty continues then results will go against us.

However, I'm hoping that under Pearson that drop off in results will not be the slump that LJ would regularly produce . The type of football we are playing us much more positive and if we keep playing that way it will keep teams under pressure and creating chances. 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheReds]

1 hour ago, gl2 said:

30th Dec 2017 we were in 3rd place behind Wolves, Wolves on 58pts us on 47pts; the season finished with Wolves 1st on 99pts and we fell away ending 11th on 67pts. Point being we managed only a further 20pts after xmas after a good first half and not for the first time either.

So yes we have a great young team/squad and things are great atm BUT its only Sept so lets not get to high up the ladder just yet, sorry but we have form........for falling away after xmas.

Lets also go for the top 2 rungs by April if we are going for it as we dont have great form in play off finals either.

Dont mean to p on our undoubted great form and hopes but this season is far from over, just yet.

But back then we were playing a different game. The high press was gradually burning out players back then and it wasn't a huge surprise to see a slump. I'd be very surprised if we don't gain a fair few more points than that after Christmas. Different style and more experienced manager - on the basis we don't have a massively depleted squad with injuries.

[The Journalist]

I’m not reigning anything in. That doesn’t mean I’m going to be shouting from the rooftops that we’re going to win the league, but after several seasons of mediocrity and then decline we absolutely should be excited by what’s happening. Life’s too short.

We’ve got a genuine chance - no more, no less, let’s enjoy it!

[Sheltons Army]

4 minutes ago, TheReds said:

But back then we were playing a different game. The high press was gradually burning out players back then and it wasn't a huge surprise to see a slump. I'd be very surprised if we don't gain a fair few more points than that after Christmas. Different style and more experienced manager - on the basis we don't have a massively depleted squad with injuries.

I never felt the high press , exhausted theory was correct 

I felt the players lost belief that they were in with a serious chance of promotion and a couple or more were starting to make plans to be elsewhere and , nowhere near down tooled , but lost a bit of focus , and more importantly belief and momentum

Not helped by adding Kent and Diony either on the pitch or I’d suggest in terms of squad togetherness 

[TheReds]

4 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

I never felt the high press , exhausted theory was correct 

I felt the players lost belief that they were in with a serious chance of promotion and a couple or more were starting to make plans to be elsewhere and , nowhere near down tooled , but lost a bit of focus , and more importantly belief and momentum

Not helped by adding Kent and Diony either on the pitch or I’d suggest in terms of squad togetherness 

Even if it wasn't the high press and the game we played, and we agree to cross that off as part of an excuse/theory.

Looking at the rest of your post and mine - and it's all down to the manager. If players lost belief, minds elsewhere, momentum, togetherness etc etc, it is down to the manager and coaches to change all of that. From memory our football after that Wolves game was poor. I just don't see any of that happening with the players, coaches and more importantly the manager we now have. We may well have a poorer second half to the season if we are anywhere near the top 8 at Xmas, but I'd wager we won't have one where we fall off a cliff like back then, as long as we have a near fully fit squad and don't sell all the top players in January. Even last season we got 28 points from Jan 1st.

[Sheltons Army]

17 minutes ago, TheReds said:

Even if it wasn't the high press and the game we played, and we agree to cross that off as part of an excuse/theory.

Looking at the rest of your post and mine - and it's all down to the manager. If players lost belief, minds elsewhere, momentum, togetherness etc etc, it is down to the manager and coaches to change all of that. From memory our football after that Wolves game was poor. I just don't see any of that happening with the players, coaches and more importantly the manager we now have. We may well have a poorer second half to the season if we are anywhere near the top 8 at Xmas, but I'd wager we won't have one where we fall off a cliff like back then, as long as we have a near fully fit squad and don't sell all the top players in January. Even last season we got 28 points from Jan 1st.

Yes , I agree

I think or anticipate ‘dips’ and the odd bloody nose and I just hope that everyone doesn’t react with knee jerk reactions in disappointment and critque

Im not sure where, just really really intrigued , where this season will go , ( my head tells me depths quality wise in squads will tell and benefit some other teams , and make life difficult for us )

My sole ‘interest’ is Bristol City not any individual

I was intrigued and pleased by Pearson’s appointment , I’ve always liked his straightforward and honest approach , and I can honestly say I think he’s actually exceeded any of my expectations in a number of aspects , and impressed me far more than I thought he would.

I think we have a really good genuine leader , with a staff he’s assembled and seems happy with , a set of hungry players who are playing for him , and a feel good factor , it would appear around the whole club.

That means for me that , finances aside , and we are getting there too, we are in a really good place and on a good progressive trajectory

Losing one of the young stars or injuries could disrupt us for a period , but we won’t go completely off the rails , and , if we maintain patience will be back on track relatively quickly

Theres a lot of phraseology in modern football , much of which I hate

But there’s one that’s very apt for me and made for us atm 

‘Trust the process’ (Under the current management)

I certainly do 

[bearded_red]

Another reason we dived so pathetically in the second half of that season is as soon as Diedhiou was fit he was straight back in the team and we never played that system with Reid and Paterson ‘upfront’ again.

I mean there were even a couple of games towards the end of the season that it was Diedhiou and Djuric up top, with Reid shoved out on the left, just aimlessly belting the ball towards them from all angles. Just a couple of months after we were playing great football with no centre forwards on the pitch. Madness.

[Mr Popodopolous]

12 hours ago, Ian M said:

Last season we finished 17th, gotta do a lot better than improve if we are to meet the players’ objectives this season. As long as we beat Preston, I’d then be happy with 1 draw/1 defeat from the two aways though.

Oh I don't disagree, we definitely need to be aiming higher than 17th.

However the away record vs clubs with parachutes was awful. Literally any kind of improved points return from that would represent an improvement. Think we may get a draw from one of those 2.

Burnley have drawn a few at home..vs Luton, Hull and Blackpool so far.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[cidered abroad]

On 25/08/2022 at 14:01, Sheltons Army said:

Great Post @Nogbad the Bad

 

The more I digest NPs work and the current ups (and downs) the more I think back over the 5 decades  of supporting ,and it may sound a bit of a wild statement ,   .......But  it’s not been much better than now during that time (Save for those few giddy years in Div 1)

Ive said a few times , in my time , we’ve never been a serious force or close to promotion favourite at this level, or even an ‘attractive’ club to players

Alan Dicks did a fantastic job to get us promoted , but it wasn’t expected , no obvious signs in the build up to it , and it was a completely different times in so many ways  

Gary Johnson did a fantastic job , got us to a play off final with a side , that in paper had no real right to be anywhere near there , and we were never fancied to be up there - He over achieved 

Other than those two anomalies we’ve huffed and puffed at this level , sometimes playing some bright football , often struggling .

So , it might not be ground shattering , but in terms of the brighter performance s at least , and our overall ‘standing’ , it’s probably as good now as it’s been , in my years , save  for those two seasons and the few Div 1 years 

Thats not to say we should have achieved more in that time , or don’t have the potential as a Club to do better in the future  , but , the fact we hardly have in the last 5 decades or so ,  puts things into some perspective.

Add in the obvious enjoyment and delight in seeing the likes of Semenyo, Scott , Conway breakthrough and deliver at this level and I’m struggling to argue when things have been brighter , or potentially brighter at least 

Watching Pearson get rid of the wasters and try to build and mould something , with ‘old fashioned values’ is something I’m enjoying , ...... and appreciating, especially considering the car crash he inherited

Our views , expectations , frustrations I accept change over time / as we get older , and if I was of a different age group I’d probably crave ‘quicker progress’ and more immediate achievement 

 

But for those who have recently posted about how dire and dreadful things are , some wanting Pearson’s head on a platter ..... take a deep breath , and suggest when things were so much rosier

I mean in no way to suggest we’ve ‘cracked it’ and are on our way to romping into the Prem , but playing some decent stuff at this level , being competitive , with some decent pros , and our own young players pushing in and delivering ,  is not the ‘norm’ historically 

I can’t see us regressing under NP (There will be a few bumps still to come) so it’s actually a time to enjoy , IMHO 

 

COYR

I couldn't have put it better. Thank you.

[TheReds]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Oh I don't disagree, we definitely need to be aiming higher than 17th.

However the away record vs clubs with parachutes was awful. Literally any kind of improved points return from that would represent an improvement. Think we may get a draw from one of those 2.

Burnley have drawn a few at home..vs Luton, Hull and Blackpool so far.

I'd love to beat Preston and get a point at Norwich with a free shot at Burnley as no expectations (from me anyway). Norwich are starting to score freely and look a very decent outfit without it all fully clicking yet. Burnley are still learning to play the passing game and they also tried a few balls over the top when I watched them, hopefully we don't play too high and get caught for pace at the back.

I can see the Burnley game being a loss for us after the Norwich game being on a Weds and Burnley playing on the Tuesday, travelling etc. I can just see a "we've not turned up" performance coming. Hopefully I am way off. If we can get 4+ points from the next 3 games we will still be in a very decent position after nearly quarter of the season gone.

[Carey 6]

23 minutes ago, bearded_red said:

Another reason we dived so pathetically in the second half of that season is as soon as Diedhiou was fit he was straight back in the team and we never played that system with Reid and Paterson ‘upfront’ again.

I mean there were even a couple of games towards the end of the season that it was Diedhiou and Djuric up top, with Reid shoved out on the left, just aimlessly belting the ball towards them from all angles. Just a couple of months after we were playing great football with no centre forwards on the pitch. Madness.

I see this mentioned quite a bit but as far as I remember, many of our fans couldn't wait for Diedhiou to get back. We looked weak in the last few games leading up to Derby away. We had only won 1 of the last 5 before he came back in.

Johnson and his teams tend to follow a similar pattern every season, not sure Diedhiou returning was the main factor. 

[Ian M]

40 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Oh I don't disagree, we definitely need to be aiming higher than 17th.

However the away record vs clubs with parachutes was awful. Literally any kind of improved points return from that would represent an improvement. Think we may get a draw from one of those 2.

Burnley have drawn a few at home..vs Luton, Hull and Blackpool so far.

"Reign in the positivity thread"  

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Sheltons Army said:

Yes , I agree

I think or anticipate ‘dips’ and the odd bloody nose and I just hope that everyone doesn’t react with knee jerk reactions in disappointment and critque

Im not sure where, just really really intrigued , where this season will go , ( my head tells me depths quality wise in squads will tell and benefit some other teams , and make life difficult for us )

My sole ‘interest’ is Bristol City not any individual

I was intrigued and pleased by Pearson’s appointment , I’ve always liked his straightforward and honest approach , and I can honestly say I think he’s actually exceeded any of my expectations in a number of aspects , and impressed me far more than I thought he would.

I think we have a really good genuine leader , with a staff he’s assembled and seems happy with , a set of hungry players who are playing for him , and a feel good factor , it would appear around the whole club.

That means for me that , finances aside , and we are getting there too, we are in a really good place and on a good progressive trajectory

Losing one of the young stars or injuries could disrupt us for a period , but we won’t go completely off the rails , and , if we maintain patience will be back on track relatively quickly

Theres a lot of phraseology in modern football , much of which I hate

But there’s one that’s very apt for me and made for us atm 

‘Trust the process’ (Under the current management)

I certainly do 

Nige has really come in as “Football Consultant” hasn’t he, it just so happens he’s playing the role of first team manager too.

He’s really like Sir John Harvey-Jones or Gerry Robinson from the BBC series “Troubleshooter”, where they go into a failing business and help turn it around.  Often it was a family business where the original driving force has gotten too old, died or lost the desire, and a family member (or members) have taken it on without the prerequisite skills, but also not the desire either.  You could easily draw parallels with Bristol City / SL.

Unfortunately SL initially turned to “Swiss Tony”, thinking it was a “the business side of football” man he needed in, but football (although a business) is more than a business and is so heavily influenced by what happens on a Saturday (or Tuesday / Wednesday) that being a good football administrator (I believe Ashton was that) is not enough, especially when boosting ego seems to be his priority.  Many of us will see crap consultants come into their work, and it’s just re-hashed PowerPoint presentations with a different company logo inserted.  That’s how I viewed MA.  A one-trip pony cashing in on an inflationary market, where even poor recruits didn’t lose too much money, or hidden beneath a Webster or a Kelly.

I’m pretty critical of SL’s football decisions (not of his investment / commitment to investment though) but he has either got lucky, or has reflected on the Ashton mistake and saw that he needed a hybrid:

• someone to run the football business
• someone to run the football team
• someone to link the two together

He’s appointed the least egotistical CEO imaginable, Richard Gould.  A man with excellent business acumen (my view of his past), who has excelled in the world of cricket, but who has knowledge of football (both family and prior roles)…who seems happiest when the lights are being shone at the HPC, to walk around the perimeter, picking up golf balls.  His hard work is done during different hours to when the fan is present.

Re the second two roles, he got 2 for 1…Nigel Pearson.  It’s possibly a bit sub-optimal, a bit compromised / conflicting in interest, but it allows the foundation building to happen with total clarity.  No batting against a DoF with a different agenda / objective.  I think it will change in time though, e.g. Nige goes upstairs and Euell becomes first team manager (just one option, there are others).

I still have no idea whether it will succeed (promo to PL), but this club is already in a much better position than it was 18 months ago, and that’s not really taking the current league table into account….that’s a bonus.

Lots of work to do, I’m happier that the club is in a better place, the football side will follow on.

[Tin Soldier]

I have always backed NP on this forum, quite frankly all the idiots calling for Nige to be sacked a few weeks ago, look like fools now. Amazing how they all suddenly “vanish” from OTIB. Assume, quite a few are fake City fans on here for a windup?
My view is that RG and SL are going to have to try and keep this team together in order to threaten the playoffs, which will be hard. But enjoy it whilst it lasts.
COYRs.

[The Swan and Cemetery]

Same as others have said, strong underlying progress is the key - great that we’re 4th and scoring lots, but won’t be too worried if we head into the international break off the back of some more disappointing results. Away to two parachute teams, with limited rest and both Norwich and Burnley having an extra day to prepare than us, is a big challenge with a relatively small squad. 12th was my pre season prediction and remain happy with that, whilst hoping for better. Fixing the finances, develop a way of playing that aligns to our strengths (and it’s entertaining), bring the youngsters through etc - lots of praise deserved for NP/RG and plenty of others. Still loads to do, but the foundations are so far removed from the state we were in a couple of years ago, it’s pretty significant progress. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Ian M said:

"Reign in the positivity thread"  

Oh I can do better. Okay challenge it is!

Picture the scene, while not top 2 material we are in a tight playoff race. Sell nobody in Jan because positivity. Margins are tight on and off the pitch.

Webster, Kelly and Brownhill all stay put. No, the transfer add-back is not approved.

March comes around and when the numbers for this season go in, we are over spending limits. EFL: "Aha! You failed FFP- as projected!" Points deduction applied instantly maybe 3-4, 2 at best then one back for cooperation and maybe another 3 although this is is debatable and Birmingham aside would be unprecedented- but the principle of rejecting a firm offer when you know you are set to breach...you never know.

In the Spring in the midst of a tight play-off race, top 2 push or relegation battle, this could easily derail a side. A bit of a worst case scenario I'll concede. Not an entirely serious post either.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Oh I can do better. Okay challenge it is!

Picture the scene, while not top 2 material we are in a tight playoff race. Sell nobody in Jan because positivity. Margins are tight on and off the pitch.

Webster, Kelly and Brownhill all stay put. No, the transfer add-back is not approved.

March comes around and when the numbers for this season go in, we are over spending limits. EFL: "Aha! You failed FFP- as projected!" Points deduction applied instantly maybe 3-4, 2 at best then one back for cooperation and maybe another 3 although this is is debatable and Birmingham aside would be unprecedented- but the principle of not selling when you know you are set to breach...you never know.

In the Spring in the midst of a tight play-off race, top 2 push or relegation battle, this could easily derail a side. A bit of a worst case scenario I'll concede.

But why would our T-2 to T+2 submission in March 2023 (T-2, T-1 actuals, T, T+1, T+2 projections) show a FFP failure predicted at T if we’ve promised to sell a Semenyo or Scott?  If we’ve projected to sell them (any time before 31st May 2023) then our T-2 to T projection will show compliance.  So no immediate points deduction.  Season ends.

Birmingham’s case was very different, they were punished for a reporting period ending summer 2018 (end of season 17/18) just that decision took until March 2019.  They didn’t sell Che Adams in the next year (2018/19 season) they sold him in 2019/20 season having made commitments to sell him in 18/19.  They had offers, they declined to sell.  They could easily be deemed to have had the benefit of Adams all season, reneging on their commitment.

Back to City, we miss promotion, we either try to flog Semenyo as per our plan, or we renege and say “oops EFL, we lied” when the monitoring team question why we haven’t now got a £15m transfer income in our books.

Of course Gould might submit projections based on not selling Semenyo (or Scott, or whoever), but if that’s the case it’s because we are close enough to compliance, we’ve been given green light anyway, or EFL would see us as being 100% transparent and there would be no “frivolous” bending of the rules and therefore no extra points deducted.  Otherwise he just puts a future transfer (pre 31st May 2023) in the T projection, and quotes Lloyd Kelly as a May-precedent and of a large incoming.  There is absolutely no way we get additional points deducted for non-Co-operation.  Personally I don’t think we get any points deductions!

No reigning in here!

 

[The Swan and Cemetery]

Don’t have anywhere near the FFP knowledge of Mr P/Dave, but aren’t we getting close to a positive self fulfilling prophecy for our finances, ie either:

- we get promoted; or

- we don’t and therefore are bound to sell a starlet or two? 

Ie the development of Scott/Semenyo/Conway has solved our financial problems (along with lots of other judicious work by RG/NP).

Realise probably overly simplistic (they could all get injured, go downhill etc), but way off the mark @Mr Popodopolous @Davefevs? 

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

But why would our T-2 to T+2 submission in March 2023 (T-2, T-1 actuals, T, T+1, T+2 projections) show a FFP failure predicted at T if we’ve promised to sell a Semenyo or Scott?  If we’ve projected to sell them (any time before 31st May 2023) then our T-2 to T projection will show compliance.  So no immediate points deduction.  Season ends.

Birmingham’s case was very different, they were punished for a reporting period ending summer 2018 (end of season 17/18) just that decision took until March 2019.  They didn’t sell Che Adams in the next year (2018/19 season) they sold him in 2019/20 season having made commitments to sell him in 18/19.  They had offers, they declined to sell.  They could easily be deemed to have had the benefit of Adams all season, reneging on their commitment.

Back to City, we miss promotion, we either try to flog Semenyo as per our plan, or we renege and say “oops EFL, we lied” when the monitoring team question why we haven’t now got a £15m transfer income in our books.

Of course Gould might submit projections based on not selling Semenyo (or Scott, or whoever), but if that’s the case it’s because we are close enough to compliance, we’ve been given green light anyway, or EFL would see us as being 100% transparent and there would be no “frivolous” bending of the rules and therefore no extra points deducted.  Otherwise he just puts a future transfer (pre 31st May 2023) in the T projection, and quotes Lloyd Kelly as a May-precedent and of a large incoming.  There is absolutely no way we get additional points deducted for non-Co-operation.  Personally I don’t think we get any points deductions!

No reigning in here!

 

I do like that approach better Dave!

Yes 2-3 at worst IMO and if we're in good form with key assets still here that's just one win extra to find.

Of course as you say "Semenyo sale lined up by end of May 2023"...projected compliance achieved, no inarsnt deduction! Or Scott sale.

That's true, Birmingham was a 2nd charge that arrived at a weird time for the Adams one- should have been attached to the initial case in March 2019 I think but is that a precedent in our favour that it wasn't? I think I should forget about the extra 3 risk.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, The Swan and Cemetery said:

Don’t have anywhere near the FFP knowledge of Mr P/Dave, but aren’t we getting close to a positive self fulfilling prophecy for our finances, ie either:

- we get promoted; or

- we don’t and therefore are bound to sell a starlet or two? 

Ie the development of Scott/Semenyo/Conway has solved our financial problems (along with lots of other judicious work by RG/NP).

Realise probably overly simplistic (they could all get injured, go downhill etc), but way off the mark @Mr Popodopolous @Davefevs? 

Would agree with this though the caveat might be that if we don't go up, a sale needed by 31st May 2023 to count in this year's figures. Otherwise if after, it'd count towards 2023-24.

Could always extend accounting period to 30th June to get best possible price if it was needed.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Leveller]

I may not know much about football, but I DO know it’s “reining in” not “reigning in”. It’s a horse riding metaphor, not a ruling thing.

Lets get the important things right, chaps.

[PHILINFRANCE]

15 minutes ago, Leveller said:

I may not know much about football, but I DO know it’s “reining in” not “reigning in”. It’s a horse riding metaphor, not a ruling thing.

Lets get the important things right, chaps.

Many (many ) years ago, I won a class prize in school for knowing three different spellings/meanings of words that sounded similar - rain, rein and reign, where we also had to explain what each word meant.

One further example was there, their and they’re, which is why it often annoys me when I see such words used inappropriately on here (and elsewhere).

[downendcity]

20 minutes ago, Leveller said:

I may not know much about football, but I DO know it’s “reining in” not “reigning in”. It’s a horse riding metaphor, not a ruling thing.

Lets get the important things right, chaps.

However, If we breach ffp  will we then discover that it never rains but it pours?

[Ian M]

54 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Would agree with this though the caveat might be that if we don't go up, a sale needed by 31st May 2023 to count in this year's figures. Otherwise if after, it'd count towards 2023-24.

Could always extend accounting period to 30th June to get best possible price if it was needed.

Say we do miss out on promotion this season and have to sell a starlet for say £20m that saves our reporting period, with our wage bill reduced and presumably standing better without sales, during which pre-season do we lose our mega-losses and benefit from that £20m sale in the new reporting period?

 

[Guest]

Top with Best attack stats in the championship and also top with the worst at conceeding in 2nd half of games, now how does that work? is our defence too attack minded? but if they hold back then our attack stats may suffer.

We only need to score 1 if we could rely on our defence but we cant, not even into injury time. So why is this? on paper I think we have one of the best defences around, do we tire? no-one wants us to try and shut up shop after a goal or 2 but we definately need to sort out this late/2nd half goal thing, if indeed we are to be serious contenders.

 

[Port Said Red]

51 minutes ago, Leveller said:

I may not know much about football, but I DO know it’s “reining in” not “reigning in”. It’s a horse riding metaphor, not a ruling thing.

Lets get the important things right, chaps.

I know @gornagain pointed this out to me, I have no excuse and it's very unlike me to get something like that wrong. Too late to correct it now though, so I guess it may be brought up come judgement day.

[Ian M]

6 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I know @gornagain pointed this out to me, I have no excuse and it's very unlike me to get something like that wrong. Too late to correct it now though, so I guess it may be brought up come judgement day.

Unless a friendly admin comes along and spares your future blushes 

[Port Said Red]

Just now, Ian M said:

Unless a friendly admin comes along and spares your future blushes 

[Port Said Red]

32 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Unless a friendly admin comes along and spares your future blushes 

[Ian M]

36 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Oh I already had