Time Since Last Bristol City Penalty

[firstdivision]

11 hours ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

The latest Reading pen was soft for a push on Shane long and typifies the penalties we don't get. 

I didn’t think it was a penalty. It was actually a foul on the Watford defender. Or play on.  Long is very clever though. He’s just ahead of the defender and moves deliberately towards him to force contact - the defender collides with him as a result. Ref will think it’s an easy decision to give but I think he hasn’t worked out what happened. 

As for the Brum penalty at Swansea - total joke. Cardiff’s penalty was clear cut but they missed it - just as we will when we get one. Probably. 

[firstdivision]

On 22/01/2023 at 17:37, Mr Popodopolous said:

A tale of two penalties. Others can put the clips back together again but that Sunderland account deleted it for some reason.

Now personally I don't think ours was and the same with Sunderland's, but if one is both are.

The one that tbh was maybe maybe maybe not v Watford in November. No penalty.

Set against Sunderland's today. Fry was the last man so the straight red makes sense but the penalty calls are remarkably similar. One was given...

Free kick outside the box. Send off the defender. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

21 minutes ago, firstdivision said:

Free kick outside the box. Send off the defender. 

As Fry was last man I concur, yet a penalty and red was awarded whereas for us v Watford...although I think the high boot on Wells was the actual main claim for us.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[hertsexile]

Can you imagine the cheer at the gate on Saturday if we get one against Norwich. 
we can only live in hope 

[Ring]

We won’t get “as many penalties” this season as Man City. 

[Homer Simpson]

6 minutes ago, Ring said:

We won’t get “as many penalties” this season as Man City. 

We won't get as many penalties this year as I'm going to have birthdays.

[Lanterne Rouge]

You just know we`ll get one five minutes before the end of the game where we would have broken the record with the score at 0-0.

And miss it.

Seriously though, who would want to be the player that has to take it when we finally do get one?

[italian dave]

I wonder how many of our designated penalty takers over the past 450 days (or whatever) have moved on without ever getting the chance to take one!

[downendcity]

3 hours ago, Homer Simpson said:

We won't get as many penalties this year as I'm going to have birthdays.

Mrs Downend says we won't get as many penalties this as times I get lucky - so the same thing really! 

P.S. She did add, that's if I'm very lucky!!

P.P.S. If we get 20 penalties between now and the end of the season, I might be absent from this forum for a while!!!

P.P.P.S. I will be seeing you all on here regularly through until the end of the season.

[Olé]

On 06/02/2023 at 06:48, richwwtk said:

The all time record run with no penalty, so far as these things are recorded, appears to be Port Vale's 72 matches, but I can't tell if this is league matches only or not.

Either way we are closing in.....

Port Vale's record was in all competitions - and keep in mind that before their run of 72 matches (which started very late in the 2020-21 season) they had received 5 penalties that season, 5 penalties the season before, 6 penalties the season before that (16 in 3 seasons).

So while WE are "only" on 65 matches without a penalty (7 short of the record), there is no comparison because we're also 111 league games with just 1 penalty, and 5 seasons with just 8 penalties. So if Port Vale was an anomaly, we are something much, much worse.

http://nopen.co.uk

[Taz]

On 06/02/2023 at 18:01, Lanterne Rouge said:

You just know we`ll get one five minutes before the end of the game where we would have broken the record with the score at 0-0.

And miss it.

Seriously though, who would want to be the player that has to take it when we finally do get one?

Sam Bells son probably at this rate.

[Malvern Red]

On 06/02/2023 at 08:20, downendcity said:

Samuel Pepys reported our last penalty in his diary!

If we ever get one again Wikipedia will have to update The Book Of Revelations 

[Merrick's Marvels]

On 06/02/2023 at 13:16, harrys said:

Reading will always win plenty of penalties with Shane Long & Tom Ince in the team

The one Long manufactured last Saturday was ridiculous.

He altered his line of running not to get the ball but to make sure he ran across the defender's line.  Cute play. 

[elhombrecito]

24 minutes ago, Olé said:

Port Vale's record was in all competitions - and keep in mind that before their run of 72 matches (which started very late in the 2020-21 season) they had received 5 penalties that season, 5 penalties the season before, 6 penalties the season before that (16 in 3 seasons).

So while WE are "only" on 65 matches without a penalty (7 short of the record), there is no comparison because we're also 111 league games with just 1 penalty, and 5 seasons with just 8 penalties. So if Port Vale was an anomaly, we are something much, much worse.

http://nopen.co.uk

Didn't realise we were that close to the record.

God I'm going to be annoyed if we get a penalty in the next seven games (unless it's a last minute winner against Man City, I'll begrudgingly accept that...)

[Mr Popodopolous]

I will leave others who contributed or whose work contributed to share it  @Pezza or @Olé or whoever.

[Port Said Red]

On 06/02/2023 at 18:01, Lanterne Rouge said:

You just know we`ll get one five minutes before the end of the game where we would have broken the record with the score at 0-0.

And miss it.

Seriously though, who would want to be the player that has to take it when we finally do get one?

I thought we would get one when we were 3-0 up against WBA, that's the most likely scenario, the game will be all but over one way or the other and then  we will finally get one.

[Mr Popodopolous]

When we get one the pressure, the nerves, the anticipation- especially if it's at a meaningful part of the game. Football being football it...

Will be skied into Row Z, out the ground or disturb sleeping seagulls etc on the stand roof! We'll get one some day, somehow but not a chance it'll be scored!

[elhombrecito]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/10/sports/soccer/bristol-city-penalty-kicks.html

Just got sent this by @The turtle

[elhombrecito]

LONDON — Maybe it’s bad luck. Maybe it’s unconscious bias. Maybe it’s subpar skill. Maybe it’s conscious bias. Maybe a new strategy is needed. Maybe it’s a far-reaching conspiracy. Maybe the fates are cruel and unknowable.

The maddening streak currently playing out for Bristol City, a mainstay of English soccer’s second-tier league, the Championship, since 2015, has defied explanation for everyone involved, and the sense of grievance stacks higher with each passing game.

It has left the team and its fans wondering: Will Bristol City ever earn a penalty kick again?

Though every team and its supporters can point to injustices they believe referees should have corrected with the award of a penalty, that surest of soccer’s goal-scoring opportunities, Bristol City’s drought has long passed inexplicable and is nearing record-setting. It has been 65 games, or 461 days, since Nov. 6, 2021, the last time a Robins player lined up to take a penalty kick.

The team’s mystified manager has complained to the board that oversees referees. Fans have assembled videos of questionable calls. Amateur statisticians have created charts to demonstrate how ludicrous the streak has become. For a team  that  hasn’t been in the Premier League since 1980, and which is currently 17th of 24 teams in the tightly packed Championship standings, the statistical anomaly has become, somehow, a new form of pain to endure.

Championship teams are typically awarded a penalty kick about once every nine games, according to Rob Fernandes, a Bristol City fan who crunched the numbers on a website dedicated to tracking the drought. Even before the current streak, Bristol City had lousy penalty luck: The Robins had a 46-game streak immediately before the current one, meaning they have been awarded only one penalty kick in their last 111 games.

Fernandes said that his research shows the team isn’t out of the ordinary on metrics that might be associated with penalty kicks — it is in the middle of the statistical pack in touches in the area and fouls awarded, for example — but for whatever reason, whistles have stayed silent when it most counts.

“I still don’t believe there’s something untoward going on,” he said. “It’s just statistically ridiculous.”

How statistically ridiculous?

No official statistics are kept on the subject, but in 2018, The Guardian uncovered a 72-game streak by the Irish team Galway United. Since then, Port Vale, a team in England’s third tier, played 73 games without a penalty kick in 2021 and 2022.

In October, the CIES Football Observatory, a research group in Switzerland, ranked Bristol City dead last among hundreds of teams in 31 European domestic leagues, averaging 1,834 minutes played per penalty kick since 2018.

Marton Balazs, an instructor at the University of Bristol’s school of mathematics, approached the question as a matter of probability. If teams can expect a penalty in one out of every nine games, the odds of going 65 games without one are one in 2,113, he said.

Now imagine you watched a soccer team’s first match, and you wondered how many games you would have to watch before seeing them play 65 games without a penalty kick. You would be waiting on average 19,009 games for the feat, he said.

The staggering numbers give credibility to the sense of bafflement from Bristol City supporters, but Balazs said the statistical event itself is not unexpected.

“There are lots of clubs out there, and there are lots of games played every year,” he said. “The fact that somewhere in the world something like this happens is not that unlikely, because these games are going on all the time, everywhere.”

That is likely to be little comfort at Bristol City, where fans are waiting impatiently for the big moment. The next chance comes Saturday, when Bristol City hosts Norwich City.

Ryan Morgan, who runs the team’s social media accounts, said he has had the tweets for when the penalty finally arrives written and saved for months, with a few different possibilities, depending on the game situation.

The team’s fans have been mostly lighthearted about the phenomenon, he said, but they are “very, very aware of it.”

Paul Binning, a 45-year-old fan in Cardiff, said Bristol City fans already had plenty of reasons to feel aggrieved. A four-decade absence from the top tier of English soccer will do that: Being a Bristol City supporter, Binning admitted, requires a certain sense of gallows humor.

“There’s an element of feeling that these things go against us, and these things just don’t happen to us for whatever reason,” he said.

About 130 miles north of Bristol in Stoke-on-Trent, there’s a fan base that understands the feeling.

Mark Porter, the chairman of the Port Vale Supporters Club, was in the stands on Oct. 8, 2022, when his seemingly cursed team ended its 73-game streak with not one, but two penalty kicks. Even though the team was successful during its penalty kick drought, earning a promotion to League One, “the longer it goes on, the worse it becomes,” he said.

When the referee whistled for a penalty to end the streak, “the fans were overjoyed,” he said. But, deep down, everyone knew what was coming: The penalty kick sailed wide.

So when the second penalty came in the second half, a lot of the fans couldn’t bear to watch, Porter said. Some dug their face in their hands, while others turned around completely.

When Ellis Harrison put his shot in the back of the net, “you could see the relief” among the players, Porter said. Asked what advice he would give Bristol City fans as their excruciating wait goes on, he said they should do their best to stay calm, for the team’s sake.

“Whatever will be will be, that’s it,” he said. “The more you worry about it, the more you stress about it, the more the players pick that up.”

[Curr Avon]

10 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/10/sports/soccer/bristol-city-penalty-kicks.html

Just got sent this by @The turtle

[Sir Geoff]

Pretty sure our last home penalty was on 31st October 2020 against...........Norwich. Nahki Wells panenked it over the bar.

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

Has anyone enquired from a bookie what odds they would offer on usnot getting a penalty this season. Placing a bet might be the only way of ensuring we get one. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Pretty sure our last home penalty was on 31st October 2020 against...........Norwich. Nahki Wells panenked it over the bar.

Correct. Had one v Swansea at home a couple of games before.

Last with fans present at home was final game of 2019 v Luton. 29th December 2019 maybe?

Edited February 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

It's not new.

https://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2021/wp364/en/

However I wonder what we are at now- for this only went up to Jan 10th 2022. Am assuming was League only?

[Mr Popodopolous]

A very quick calculation suggests that if League only...it was.

1 penalty per 1,834 mins.

Now it's and I'm not including stoppage time in this.

1 penalty per 2,396.50 mins.

Put another way it was 1 per 20.3778 games whereas now it's 1 per 26.625 games.

Won't even try to bother with any other clubs!

8 in 163 games became 8 in 213 games in layman's terms.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[SydneyCity]

As per title:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/10/sports/soccer/bristol-city-penalty-kicks.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

[joe jordans teeth]

Can’t read it 

[Robbored]

8 minutes ago, joe jordans teeth said:

Can’t read it 

Nor can I.

[Jeez]

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Birmingham who were next to us at this level have had 18 in 214 games including tonight set against our 8.

1 per 1,070 mins assuming League only whereas 1 per 2,396.50 for us.

A fair next stage of analysis then is those sides who were ever present at the level from 2018-19 to now and these are- League only.

1) Birmingham City- 18 or 19 but sources wise it is certain which.

2) Blackburn- 30

3) US- 8

4) Middlesbrough- 24

5) Millwall- 21

6) Preston- 30

7) QPR- 22

8. Reading- 32

9) Stoke City- 20

10) Swansea City- 25

Edited February 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous