Alleged takeover chat

[Ska Junkie]

Over the weekend, a few respected posters intimated that a take over may well be in the offing.

I know bugger all, as usual, so wanted to give those that know / have heard stuff, the chance to share info / rumours with us mere mortals.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I will leave the stage to others but would ask.

A) What sort of price for a takeover or B) Even a seat on the board?

Takeover of clubs seems to vary vastly cost wise. Hull cost £20m reportedly,  Millwall would cost £80m- these are both the club, lock, stock and barrel.

Coventry there was a price reported I am sure but anyway 85 pct has been sold, subject to approval. Birmingham £30m and included the stadium/stadium  company although that seems not to be happening now...wasn't for 100 pct anyway, was a staged deal- £5.4m for 21.64 pct in October 2020.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Harry]

It’s been publically known that Steve has wanted “investment” for at least a year, and news was first broken by @Kid in the Riotthat the club was up for sale around 2.5 years ago. 

[OliOTIB]

You would think the club would be valued at more than that taking into account the assets and structure

[Kid in the Riot]

Wants investment but doesn't want to relinquish full control of the club. There's the problem and why a "takeover" is possibly still a way off. I wonder if part of the reason Alexander has been brought in though is to help make a deal more likely. He's worked with American owners at Palace and Wycombe.

The Jordanians want out of Rovers too, by the way. There was interest from an American consortium, but that has cooled for now due to uncertainty regards the fruit market site, which has (like all potential building projects) been impacted on by the cost of living crisis/recession. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Of course an elephant in the room is, it's one thing wanting new owners or even to some extent Investors but...and some of these are unknowable until euch time as they have been here for a while.

1) Would they be responsible custodian both in the short and long term?

2) US owners like Leveraged buyouts. Not all by any stretch but there habe been at least two- for a Championship club this can be a highly risky business.

3) In a similar vein, if we are not a yoyo or PL club then a secured loan by MSD or similar, well it could be okay but it could be a significant issue.

4) Would they try to disregard or work round FFP? This could be considered a part of the EFL Owners and Directors Test and the Test itself, has been increasing in criteria in the last 2-3 years.

5) How likely are they to get EFL approval? Sort of follows on from Point 4 but Henry Mauriss and Erik Alonso for example spring to mind as two who would not have, did not. As in how credible are they.

6) The cost question. How much is a Championship club worth especially one with a lack of scope to spend right now? In 12 to 18 months this picture may look much healthier. Feeding into that is how much would they consider a fair prce to pay and how much debt/equity if any would be repayable by dint of the purchase price.

7) Are they happy to work under the kind of restrictions that clubs are bound by? Cost limits, 2 year financial projections, the right for the EFL to impose such restrictions as they deem necessary to uphold the rules, something that prospective new owners especially must agree to?

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, OliOTIB said:

You would think the club would be valued at more than that taking into account the assets and structure

Maybe, although Bournemouth went for £120m I read and they're PL, or have been PL for 6 and top end Championship for the remainder of 2013-14 to present!

Much less infrastructure however, let alone the multi sports model.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Barrs Court Red]

One of the Sunday papers had a story that Millwall were likely to be bought by American investors. 

[Bris Red]

Call me pessimistic and I’m sure @Mr Popodopolous or @Davefevs would be able to shed more info on this than me but from what I can see and with the current FFP rules would new investment/owners actually make a blind bit of difference in terms of what we actually would have available to spend on new players?

If the club is bought by a new owner surely we are still going to be hampered by our FFP situation but also with the added concern of not 100% knowing the intentions of said owners.

For as much as i feel SL has taken the club as far as he can i worry that new ownership wouldn’t actually leave us in any better of a situation then we currently find ourselves in. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Bris Red

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, Bris Red said:

Call me pessimistic and I’m sure @Mr Popodopolous or @Davefevs would be able to shed more info on this than me but from what I can see and with the current FFP rules would new investment/owners actually make a blind bit of difference in terms of what we actually would have available to spend on new players?

If the club is bought by a new owner surely we are still going to be hampered by our FFP situation but also with the added concern of not 100% knowing the intentions of said owners.

For as much as i feel SL has taken the club as far as he can i worry that new ownership wouldn’t actually leave us in any better of a situation then we currently find ourselves in. 

Initially no we'd be no better of FFP-wise. A new owner inherits the club's current FFP status, and SL already puts the maximum equity investment (when he does his annual debt/equity swap) in every year in order to keep the club afloat.

However, if SL's attitude and motivation to continue doing that is failing, then a new shareholder could be needed in order to keep treading water. 

So short term it would do nothing, but long term (ie 2024/25/26) it could be what's needed.

IMO a fresh approach to governance, board structure, and corporate structure are needed. That can be achieved either through a new investor or through a complete sale/takeover. Personally I would welcome a new investor coming on for something like a 20% stake. Fresh ideas and views but with SL retaining control. Allows us to test out that investors motives and modus operandi.

[Clutton Caveman]

8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Of course an elephant in the room is, it's one thing wanting new owners or even to some extent Investors but...and some of these are unknowable until euch time as they have been here for a while.

1) Would they be responsible custodian both in the short and long term?

2) US owners like Leveraged buyouts. Not all by any stretch but there habe been at least two- for a Championship club this can be a highly risky business.

3) In a similar vein, if we are not a yoyo or PL club then a secured loan by MSD or similar, well it could be okay but it could be a significant issue.

4) Would they try to disregard or work round FFP? This could be considered a part of the EFL Owners and Directors Test and the Test itself, has been increasing in criteria in the last 2-3 years.

5) How likely are they to get EFL approval? Sort of follows on from Point 4 but Henry Mauriss and Erik Alonso for example spring to mind as two who would not have, did not. As in how credible are they.

6) The cost question. How much is a Championship club worth especially one with a lack of scope to spend right now? In 12 to 18 months this picture may look much healthier. Feeding into that is how much would they consider a fair prce to pay and how much debt/equity if any would be repayable by dint of the purchase price.

7) Are they happy to work under the kind of restrictions that clubs are bound by? Cost limits, 2 year financial projections, the right for the EFL to impose such restrictions as they deem necessary to uphold the rules, something that prospective new owners especially must agree to?

One thing is for sure, a championship club is worth more than a league 1 club, so I think some action in Jan is likely

[exAtyeoMax]

32 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Initially no we'd be no better of FFP-wise. A new owner inherits the club's current FFP status, and SL already puts the maximum equity investment (when he does his annual debt/equity swap) in every year in order to keep the club afloat.

However, if SL's attitude and motivation to continue doing that is failing, then a new shareholder could be needed in order to keep treading water. 

So short term it would do nothing, but long term (ie 2024/25/26) it could be what's needed.

IMO a fresh approach to governance, board structure, and corporate structure are needed. That can be achieved either through a new investor or through a complete sale/takeover. Personally I would welcome a new investor coming on for something like a 20% stake. Fresh ideas and views but with SL retaining control. Allows us to test out that investors motives and modus operandi.

Hopefully the new CEO will bring some new life into the club.

[Port Said Red]

Part of the issue must be what is for sale? Is it BCFC, BCFC Holdings, Bristol Sports? It's become a very complex set up, and you would need to know whether you are going to end up tenants in a stadium complex or owning the site and planning permission for development for example. 

@Kid in the Riot mentioning the Rovers being up for sale doesn't surprise me either, the man with a nice watch doesn't have anywhere near the finance required in his own, but the infrastructure of the club stops them being at all viable. He and his family only bought in to the club because they thought the ground was imminent at UWE, now they have to convince any new investor that the Fruit Market is a goer.

 

[CyderInACan]

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

[ExiledAjax]

22 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Part of the issue must be what is for sale? Is it BCFC, BCFC Holdings, Bristol Sports? It's become a very complex set up, and you would need to know whether you are going to end up tenants in a stadium complex or owning the site and planning permission for development for example. 

 

The main decision that SL needs to make is whether he takes investment/sells Bristol City Football Club Ltd or Bristol City Holdings Ltd. The current structure is as below, and it really isn't that complex when compared to other company structures. As you can see, Bristol Sport Ltd is actually a sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd. Despite what many fans will tell you Bristol Sport does not own any part of Bristol City Football Club. There will be contractual agreements between the Club company and Bristol Sport, but that does not constitute ownership. Likewise the Rugby club owns no part of the football club or Ashton Gate.

Basically, does SL want to keep hold of the stadium - owned by Ashton Gate Ltd., or does he want to sell the whole lot and take a clean break? I have no idea, but it would make a huge difference to both the potential valuation of the sale/investment and to the future stability of the club. I'd guess that the stadium would add £40-50m to any valuation(a guess of a figure). 

As fans we should want SL to take investment or sell the whole package, stadium company and club company. Doing this keeps the stadium packaged with the club and so provides any new owner with control of the three main assets that make up our club - membership of the EFL, player contracts (which are with Bristol City Football Club Ltd), and the stadium. That's what you buy, and that's where the value is. That means selling the Holding company, or more likely setting up a new company, and selling Bristol City Football Club Ltd and Ashton Gate Ltd to that NewCo. The women's club company would go with it as a subsidiary of Bristol City Football Club Ltd.

Rugby would continue to be a tenant of Ashton Gate Ltd - and that should cause no issue if the new owner is honest and in good faith. Likewise the Club could easily continue to licence or rent things from Bristol Sport Ltd under its current contracts. In terms of structuring the deal the existence of Bristol Sport, and the relationship that the Football Club has with Bristol Sport and the Rugby Club should have very little negative impact on any new investor.

[jj77]

29 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

Especially one as an investment.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Barrs Court Red said:

One of the Sunday papers had a story that Millwall were likely to be bought by American investors. 

Already have a US owner so it would be selling to new ones, but interesting can you link?

I saw an asking price of £80m mentioned.

[Port Said Red]

6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The main decision that SL needs to make is whether he takes investment/sells Bristol City Football Club Ltd or Bristol City Holdings Ltd. The current structure is as below, and it really isn't that complex when compared to other company structures. As you can see, Bristol Sport Ltd is actually a sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd. Despite what many fans will tell you Bristol Sport does not own any part of Bristol City Football Club. There will be contractual agreements between the Club company and Bristol Sport, but that does not constitute ownership. Likewise the Rugby club owns no part of the football club or Ashton Gate.

Basically, does SL want to keep hold of the stadium - owned by Ashton Gate Ltd., or does he want to sell the whole lot and take a clean break? I have no idea, but it would make a huge difference to both the potential valuation of the sale/investment and to the future stability of the club. I'd guess that the stadium would add £40-50m to any valuation(a guess of a figure). 

As fans we should want SL to take investment or sell the whole package, stadium company and club company. Doing this keeps the stadium packaged with the club and so provides any new owner with control of the three main assets that make up our club - membership of the EFL, player contracts (which are with Bristol City Football Club Ltd), and the stadium. That's what you buy, and that's where the value is. That means selling the Holding company, or more likely setting up a new company, and selling Bristol City Football Club Ltd and Ashton Gate Ltd to that NewCo. The women's club company would go with it as a subsidiary of Bristol City Football Club Ltd.

Rugby would continue to be a tenant of Ashton Gate Ltd - and that should cause no issue if the new owner is honest and in good faith. Likewise the Club could easily continue to licence or rent things from Bristol Sport Ltd under its current contracts. In terms of structuring the deal the existence of Bristol Sport, and the relationship that the Football Club has with Bristol Sport and the Rugby Club should have very little negative impact on any new investor.

I would have thought that one of the temptations to get involved is the new development, a real ROI possibility with the apartments, hotel and conference centre income, so where does that sit in the grand scheme of things?

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I would have thought that one of the temptations to get involved is the new development, a real ROI possibility with the apartments, hotel and conference centre income, so where does that sit in the grand scheme of things?

I understand that the Sporting Quarter is being done under the company "Esteban Investments Ltd" rather than any Club company. That is the company listed as the one putting in the planning permission application. Esteban Investments Ltd is on my chart (furthest to the right), as another sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd and Bristol Sport Ltd. However it is not in any way owned by either of those.

So any sale or investment of/in the football club or stadium doesn't directly involve that company or the development that it is doing. The stadium and sporting quarter are, I bleieve, on different titles at the land registry. Therefore, so long as SL was comfortable that he would have the correct access easements and contractual relationships with Bristol Sport or Bristol City football Club then as I understand things it doesn't affect it at all really.

Alternatively yes they could include Esteban Investments or the Sporting Quarter as part of the sale - and yes that would increase the valuation again.

It all depends on how much SL and any new owner/investor wants to control the entire site/package, or whether they are happy buying just the football club part and having an ongoing contractual relationship with the bits that SL retains.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

13 hours ago, Ska Junkie said:

Over the weekend, a few respected posters intimated that a take over may well be in the offing.

I know bugger all, as usual, so wanted to give those that know / have heard stuff, the chance to share info / rumours with us mere mortals.

I'm pleased to be able to shed some light on this.

A consortium have grouped together and are due to have high level talks at the club. They are first meeting at the Three Lions for takeover discussions and will then march directly for further discussions at Ashton Gate.

 

[archie andrews]

51 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

Money launderers...... 

[Kodjias Wrist]

1 minute ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

I'm pleased to be able to shed some light on this.

A consortium have grouped together and are due to have high level talks at the club. They are first meeting at the Three Lions for takeover discussions and will then march directly for further discussions at Ashton Gate.

 

Then sign up at the Mardyke

[Kid in the Riot]

1 hour ago, Port Said Red said:

 

@Kid in the Riot mentioning the Rovers being up for sale doesn't surprise me either, the man with a nice watch doesn't have anywhere near the finance required in his own, but the infrastructure of the club stops them being at all viable. He and his family only bought in to the club because they thought the ground was imminent at UWE, now they have to convince any new investor that the Fruit Market is a goer.

UWE wasn't the reason the Al-Qadi's bought Rovers. It was for a very specific reason which I'd rather not say now, as I haven't seen it in the media at any point. Correct that with their current infrastructure any owner of them is just going to hemorrhage money. That's why any takeover would be dependent on guarantees on the fruit market stadium site. Bristol City Council are fully on board with it, so again it just comes down to money. 

29 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I understand that the Sporting Quarter is being done under the company "Esteban Investments Ltd" rather than any Club company. That is the company listed as the one putting in the planning permission application. Esteban Investments Ltd is on my chart (furthest to the right), as another sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd and Bristol Sport Ltd. However it is not in any way owned by either of those.

Ah, good old "Steve Investments Ltd". Esteban of course being Spanish for Stephen. The in-joke here presumably being that Steve isn't listed as a director of Esteban. The directors are: Jon, Gavin Marshall and Martin Griffiths. However, little doubt "Esteban" is providing all the investment! Very good.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Kid in the Riot

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Ah, good old "Steve Investments Ltd". Esteban of course being Spanish for Stephen. The in-joke here presumably being that Steve isn't listed as a director of Esteban. The directors are: Jon, Gavin Marshall and Martin Griffiths. However, little doubt "Esteban" is providing all the investment! Very good.

Yep, although Marshall is the Secretary rather than a Director. But yeh, Maggie and Steve are the only persons with significant control, and the company is 100% owned through Pula.

[Jeez]

54 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The main decision that SL needs to make is whether he takes investment/sells Bristol City Football Club Ltd or Bristol City Holdings Ltd. The current structure is as below, and it really isn't that complex when compared to other company structures. As you can see, Bristol Sport Ltd is actually a sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd. Despite what many fans will tell you Bristol Sport does not own any part of Bristol City Football Club. There will be contractual agreements between the Club company and Bristol Sport, but that does not constitute ownership. Likewise the Rugby club owns no part of the football club or Ashton Gate.

Basically, does SL want to keep hold of the stadium - owned by Ashton Gate Ltd., or does he want to sell the whole lot and take a clean break? I have no idea, but it would make a huge difference to both the potential valuation of the sale/investment and to the future stability of the club. I'd guess that the stadium would add £40-50m to any valuation(a guess of a figure). 

As fans we should want SL to take investment or sell the whole package, stadium company and club company. Doing this keeps the stadium packaged with the club and so provides any new owner with control of the three main assets that make up our club - membership of the EFL, player contracts (which are with Bristol City Football Club Ltd), and the stadium. That's what you buy, and that's where the value is. That means selling the Holding company, or more likely setting up a new company, and selling Bristol City Football Club Ltd and Ashton Gate Ltd to that NewCo. The women's club company would go with it as a subsidiary of Bristol City Football Club Ltd.

Rugby would continue to be a tenant of Ashton Gate Ltd - and that should cause no issue if the new owner is honest and in good faith. Likewise the Club could easily continue to licence or rent things from Bristol Sport Ltd under its current contracts. In terms of structuring the deal the existence of Bristol Sport, and the relationship that the Football Club has with Bristol Sport and the Rugby Club should have very little negative impact on any new investor.

Thanks for breaking this down, with that structure in place I would suggest a sale of Bristol City Holdings is the most likely possibility of any.

Bristol Bears as a tenant until SL builds them their own stadium, although he’ll bankrolling that in perpetuity as there is zero money in Rugby, so maybe they stay as a tenant & it’s pitched as an income stream.

[ExiledAjax]

38 minutes ago, Jeez said:

Thanks for breaking this down, with that structure in place I would suggest a sale of Bristol City Holdings is the most likely possibility of any.

Bristol Bears as a tenant until SL builds them their own stadium, although he’ll bankrolling that in perpetuity as there is zero money in Rugby, so maybe they stay as a tenant & it’s pitched as an income stream.

I agree. If I'm an investor or buyer I want the stadium and everything. I don't want to buy a football club and then rent from the old owner. I'd be happy to be a landlord to the old owner's rugby club, but I want control of the main bricks and mortar asset.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

I understand that the Sporting Quarter is being done under the company "Esteban Investments Ltd" rather than any Club company.

I've been told there is to be a physical link/walkway from the new arena/hotel to the Stadium. So I imagine the whole package would be held by Ashton Gate Ltd when completed, and I guess it would work on the same lines as the Stadium and City. 

[Numero Uno]

14 hours ago, Ska Junkie said:

Over the weekend, a few respected posters intimated that a take over may well be in the offing.

I know bugger all, as usual, so wanted to give those that know / have heard stuff, the chance to share info / rumours with us mere mortals.

Only thing I've heard is that the club is being given back to 25 or so lads from the Lions on Saturday lunch time, Pearson will be fired, POTD will be a tenner, pints £3, pies £1 and we have £25m of incoming by next Thursday................

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Numero Uno said:

Only thing I've heard is that the club is being given back to 25 or so lads from the Lions on Saturday lunch time, Pearson will be fired, POTD will be a tenner, pints £3, pies £1 and we have £25m of incoming by next Thursday................

I heard two legs are bad and four legs are good.

[Negan]

I get the feeling we are just pretty much impossible to buy? We’ve lumped ourself in to Bristol sport so whoever wants to buy us would also have to buy the rugby, basketball and women’s team as well. Along with I’m assuming the stadium and the future redevelopment? Seems a bit weird for Steve to ask for investors, who would want too? If you’ve got that sort of money surely you want to have as much control of what goes on as possible? Not just put millions in to something and let, what has currently been for god knows how long, a club that has failed to achieve anything handle it?
 

The last interview SL had regarding all this, to me anyway, came across like he was coming to an end with everything regarding us and the BS model. Yet some are saying he doesn’t want to lose full control over it? Everything just seems very weird to me. Either sell it all to someone and just become a fan, or continue as you are. If he’s been looking for 2.5 years and there’s still nobody wanting to invest, then there never will be. Sounds like he needs to have a rethink about the way forward. Can’t just hold on to the club if he isn’t 100% committed anymore.