Where does this leave us?

[cityexile]

40 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

This is how our January shook out then. 3 in and 7 out. 

Initially I'm expecting Cornick to be first XI pretty soon, with Mehmeti and Haikin in the 18 but not necessarily getting loads of minutes in the next few weeks.

Outgoings are really good imo. An academy success story in Towler getting a contract at an EFL club. A big book for the club getting Semenyo out for a good fee. Shifting Bentley, Massengo, Martin and Klose off the wage bill (plus presumably small fees for Bentley and Massengo). Bajic getting minutes at Valenciennes.

Edit: forgot Kadji - and so have transfermarkt - I guess because he's not officially a first team player? Anyway, that's another nice local loan where he should get some good minutes.

I think O'Brien would have been the icing on the cake but overall the squad looks good.

Really nice summary.

It may be we have saved a little on the seasons wages for Martin and Klose. I am sure they would have wanted the vast majority of their contract paid up. Equally I would think we saved a little by offering to do this now so that Martin is a free agent and Klose can get back home now. Also for reasons I understand Nathan Baker gets missed in all this. Quite rightly we are paying him I believe to the end of his contract this season. In terms of wages that is another relatively big one that will then drop out. 

 

 

 

[Shuffle]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

Not sure he has.

I’m more relaxed about it because the Palace centre back we were after (& didn’t get) was surely a project, rather than a definite option based on his career so far, so wouldn’t have added much this season.

We are paying Kalas a huge sum & so hopefully if needed he can return to his best. I don’t see Idehen featuring in the squad so if we were really stretched then Tanner could do a job at CB with Wilson back, Williams (more likely in a back four) or King would step in.

I appreciate Naismith is currently a first choice in midfield but if you include him we now have 8 senior defenders, all of whom are fit (Wilson maybe not enough to start) that seems ok to me.

I think the one disappointment for me is that throughout this season NP has said he needed a CB but we didn’t get one. I think Pring would play CB if Atkinson out. There’s lots who could do a job out of position but that’s too big a risk for me.  Kalas is covering two positions if we don’t move Naismith & just a personal opinion but is it a risk worth taking. Time will tell I guess but on a positive with new signings we have lots of pace and energy. Where does Weimann fit in is a great problem to have

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, James54De said:

Really? Surely we were not on course for a 22 million pound loss this season?

We still have stupidly high “other costs” that drags it down.  Nige is doing his bit on the pure football side, other parts of the business need to do their bit too.

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

When we book Scott changes things as you say. Booking him earlier also means he drops out of that 3 year cycle earlier. IIRC we had that issue with Kelly. We booked him in May of 2019 which meant that we ran into problems a year earlier down the line. COVID aggregation saved us that time, but probably won't next time.

I do lean towards your reasoning of smoothing the "profit" out over more years. However if people want to spend, spend, spend this summer there is a short term benefit to booking Scott's money this financial year. I believe we could do that if we agreed the contract and received money in May, with his registration then transferring in June once the window opens. I think that's what we did with Kelly. @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous can probably correct me.

As said.

The important thing is to get to a point where if we sold no-one we stay within the £13m per year…and a player sale becomes a bonus.  I can’t believe we become so reliant on sales, and big ones at that.  Foolish strategy.

54 minutes ago, italian dave said:

I know it’s your nature Dave, and not knocking it, but I think you’re being exceptionally generous to NP here!

It’s already way more ‘his’ squad than is the case for most managers at this level. As @Harry said initially, all bar two are players he’s brought in or brought through from the academy. 

It goes with the territory of football management that you have to work with what you inherit and very few managers get the time to make changes to the extent NP has had.

Whether it’s his ‘chosen’ players is always going to be a matter of compromise. Unless you’re a Chelsea or a Man City then financial constraints alone are huge for anyone and it’s just a question of degree.

If NP was reporting to me then I’d certainly not be accepting any ‘it’s not my squad’ excuses! 

I wouldn’t say “exceptionally”, but that’s me splitting hairs.  You are right about getting time.  But the mess was so big, if you don’t give it time you never sort it out, or have to sort it out in Lg1…or even worse spiral further down the leagues.  Decision made for “P&L” not football.

It is definitely more his squad, it is his squad (that’s actually what I said), so not sure why you’re suggesting I said different.  The point I’m making is that it’s not the squad he’d have chosen had he had 2 years to spend freely, like others had…and we should remain cautious.

 

 

[Davefevs]

44 minutes ago, italian dave said:

Indeed, and that’s where I’d accept that @Davefevs is right to sound that note of caution. Financially, we are more constrained than we were 5 years ago, and those compromises mean that we can’t compete for either experienced Czech internationals or for young star prospects from Monaco! 

What we don’t know is what expectations SL has set (or whether he dares tell NP!). It was very clear that the expectation on LJ his final season was top 6 and nothing less. That’s clearly not the target expected of NP this season, and probably won’t be next either. 

[Davefevs]

46 minutes ago, NorthBris_Southstand said:

I'm afraid that's not the way it'd work. The sale is accounted for in the P/L in the year it happens, therefore staging payments impacts cashflow but not the ffp calculations currently.

It’s quite possible that the new FFP rules will change this, and actually release transfer profit into the “turnover” column as and when it is received….but you are right as it stands.  

8 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

I think the one disappointment for me is that throughout this season NP has said he needed a CB but we didn’t get one. I think Pring would play CB if Atkinson out. There’s lots who could do a job out of position but that’s too big a risk for me.  Kalas is covering two positions if we don’t move Naismith & just a personal opinion but is it a risk worth taking. Time will tell I guess but on a positive with new signings we have lots of pace and energy. Where does Weimann fit in is a great problem to have

Yes, me too…but probably also shows we won’t just buy anyone.

I think Naismith will be the “mover” if we get injuries at the back.  We have enough midfielders even if means tweaking how we play.

[Atyeo's Love Child]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think Naismith will be the “mover” if we get injuries at the back.  We have enough midfielders even if means tweaking how we play.

Do you think we'd move Naismith back into defence ahead of starting Kalas?

[Henry]

27 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

It's a good window.

Semenyo is a big loss but it was an inevitable loss and the much needed cash softens the blow. Scott stays, for now.

Gould's exceptional work at balancing Ashton's books took another huge step forward - we're can't be far off where we need to be now, financially at least. I am VERY glad the hear the reports on Currie's negotiation - under Ashton we'd have just paid the asking price and worried later. 

The squad? We've got options. It's young and exciting which is the route we should go. I don't think we'll struggle for goals.

CB is the main area of concern, one injury and we're back to considering King at CB and we can all remember the team's league trajectory when that was happening.

January on the pitch was a very good one, confidence returning, momentum building, opportunities taken, injured players closer to the side again. 

A good solid mid-table push would set us up nicely for the summer now. COYR.

Are we though?

Right now, first choice is Zak and Rob. If Zak gets injured, Kalas comes in. If Rob is injured, Naismith drops back. 

I don’t remember Zak ever being injured. CB is not a position you tend to rest or rotate. I’m comfortable with our position in defence.

We were heading into the window with the defence being strengthened. It’s a huge credit to the defence, and Nigel, that it was no longer a priority and we could add to our attack and creativity. 

[Selred]

28 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

we don't know how long before Kalas will be fit again

Been on the bench the last 2 games

28 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

we don't know how long before Kalas will be fit again

Been on the bench the last 2 games

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, Atyeo's Love Child said:

Do you think we'd move Naismith back into defence ahead of starting Kalas?

No

[And Its Smith]

3 minutes ago, Henry said:

Are we though?

Right now, first choice is Zak and Rob. If Zak gets injured, Kalas comes in. If Rob is injured, Naismith drops back. 

I don’t remember Zak ever being injured. CB is not a position you tend to rest or rotate. I’m comfortable with our position in defence.

We were heading into the window with the defence being strengthened. It’s a huge credit to the defence, and Nigel, that it was no longer a priority and we could add to our attack and creativity. 

We targeted two defenders and got neither of them. I’m not criticising not getting them as we shouldn’t overpay but defence is clearly an area that Pearson wants to strengthen and we haven’t done it.  Again, for clarity, I’m not saying we should have paid what they want but not strengthening has to be a concern as we wanted to strengthen. Numbers wise we are one player short of where we wanted to be 

Edited February 1, 2023 by And Its Smith

[awbb]

Talk of expectations of top 10 is optimistic. The issue, as I see it, is that we will still need to control the wage bill.

Theoretically, this January we have improved, or at least given ourselves a higher ceiling in the future and we have reduced our player wage expenditure again, though I wouldn't think we are quite at the target level yet. Squad make-up is still not perfect. Needing an extra CB and not getting one is a bit of a facer but ultimately we have to stay up this year and ideally get the majority of the 2023/24 squad plenty of experience in the way we want to play next year. I fully accept that this is "perfect world" stuff though.

What happens in the summer? It's still hard to have any expectations, but, on a simplistic level, I would imagine we probably have 2-3 million to play with as far as money available to spend, which is the remainder of the Semenyo deal (a chunk of which was used for Mehmeti, Cornick and paying up Martin and Klose's contracts) with hopefully a fair bit kept back, if not for a rainy day then at least to keep the auditors at the EFL happy for FFP. On that note, I suspect saving a little, however small, on paying up Martin and Klose is something we can show the EFL as positive attempts to meet the rules if they decide we warrant extra attention.

Assuming we need to cut the wage bill further, Dasilva is fully expected to be released and any replacement will almost certainly be on considerably less than Jay's expiring contract. I also expect Kalas to walk at this point, though I'm perfectly content to be proven wrong. I imagine his replacement (and another to fill out the need at CB) will probably be a push as far as salary goes, even if Kalas were to stay. Just so we don't forget, Kalas and Dasilva leaving at the end of this season represent an estimated £10.5 million in transfer fee's leaving for nothing.

The big "if" is Scott. We all know that it is unlikely for him to remain a Bristol City player beyond the 2023 summer transfer window and if he does go, he will generate a transfer fee that would cover even our most egregious single season outlays over the last few years and then some. The issue with large sales made under Mark Ashton was that they were seen as an excuse to massively increase the wage bill. COVID has put the stoppers on Championship club wage inflation somewhat and we are clearly focusing heavily on that expenditure so it is unlikely we will spend a lot of it. Which, of course, means we should do everything in our power to keep Scott!

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by awbb

[James54De]

27 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

We still have stupidly high “other costs” that drags it down.  Nige is doing his bit on the pure football side, other parts of the business need to do their bit too.

What are these other cost? Service payments on our debt? 

[Alessandro]

5 minutes ago, Henry said:

Are we though?

Right now, first choice is Zak and Rob. If Zak gets injured, Kalas comes in. If Rob is injured, Naismith drops back. 

I don’t remember Zak ever being injured. CB is not a position you tend to rest or rotate. I’m comfortable with our position in defence.

We were heading into the window with the defence being strengthened. It’s a huge credit to the defence, and Nigel, that it was no longer a priority and we could add to our attack and creativity. 

IMO yes. Let's put this into context. Are we happy with where we are in the league and are we happy with our performances?

1) Yes we're looking a little 'safer' now, but only 1 month ago we'd slipped to 3 points and 3 places off the relegation zone.

2) Only 5 teams have conceded less goals than us vs only 7 have scored more than us - that suggests creativity isn't the issue.

3) Zak has been excellent (and a good injury record doesn't mean he won't get one), Rob has a mistake in him. How fit it Kalas? How long will he stay fit? Naismith is now very important (and arguably better) in our midfield. King has had to play at least 5 times at CB.

One injury or red card suspension could unbalance the team in the short/medium run. Yes we're probably fine, but an upgrade or more cover would have been very helpful IMO to avoid shifting fullbacks and CM's into CB if needed.

 

[Rocking Red Cyril]

11 hours ago, James54De said:

Squad looks like this:

GK

Max O’Leary

Niki Haikin

RB

George Tanner

Kane Wilson

CB

Zak Vyner

Rob Atkinson

Tomas Kalas

Kal Naismith

LB

Cam Pring 

Jay Dasilva

MID

Matty James

Alex Scott 

Joe Williams 

Andy King

Mark Sykes

(Kal Naismith)

Ayman Benarous

FWD

Nahki Wells

Tommy Conway

Andi Weimann

Sam Bell

Harry Cornick

Anis Mehmeti

 

We’re a little weak at centre half, very week in fact.

 

Dasilva gone 

[Gert Mare]

9 hours ago, Harry said:

I dunno. There’s only 2 remaining players (academy aside) left in the squad from the LJ/Ashton period, and both will be gone in 18 games time (Kalas, Dasilva). 

Those 2 aside, plus Williams (signed by Holden), this is Pearson’s squad now. 

What pleases me Har is the shift in mentality. Pearson has been firm (to some fans displeasure) but fair and you can see the team performing now as more of a solid unit. The West Brom game should have given the players the belief that they can more than just compete at this level when they do what they need to do.

I'm happy with the window signings because we're now attacking at pace, beating people and getting balls into the box with defenders facing the wrong way. It's old fashioned but still bloody effective. 

For years I have been pulling my hair out watching slow build up possession play, allowing the opposition to get as many men behind the ball as possible and watching us pass it backwards and forwards across the 18 yard box, failing to find a slight gap and then retreating to the half way line.

Much better football now. Pearson has had to have teflon shoulders and fair play to him. I'm more than happy that he's in charge, but would love to see him have the level playing field that his predecessors had when it comes to being able to spend to get exactly who you want.....with at least 3 transfer windows of it!

[Rocking Red Cyril]

11 hours ago, James54De said:

Looks like Kadji is off on loan, also. 

Good game time needed

[Rocking Red Cyril]

10 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

It certainly looks like a much changed , more risky squad than a month ago. We have lost a lot of experience but brought in some excitement if you include Bell coming through.

A little light in defence and a player too many in attacking areas perhaps 

Will we be expecting to get Currie and O'Brien in the summer?

[Rocking Red Cyril]

10 hours ago, Sturny said:

I think we’ve come out of this window stronger, it’s a shame the defence wasn’t addressed but can’t have everything. 
 

Kalas coming back could help, but not counting on it. 

Surely as we are light at the back with our defense signings not getting through. Kalas will be a big part of the defensive set up for the rest of the season . Which I am cool with 

[James54De]

4 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Dasilva gone 

No, he hasn’t. 

[ExiledAjax]

2 hours ago, James54De said:

Really? Surely we were not on course for a 22 million pound loss this season?

I think we're going to be in the high teens, even with Semenyo's £10m. The basic balance sheet for BCFC Holdings Ltd (the company that reports for FFP purposes) shows our £28.2m loss for last season, and the £38m loss the season before. Wages are listed as "Staff costs" and came down from £35.3m in 2020/21 to £30.3m in 2021/22 (a 14% reduction). Amortisation dropped by about £3.5m (down 23%). Player trading was £6m profit in 2020/21 and £1.2m profit in 2021/22. 

Very rough fag-packet pub sketch of this seasons balance sheet, with assumptions, is as follows. Let's assume the same % reduction for wages and amortisation. That takes the wage bill down to £26m, saving £4.3m. Amortisation comes down to £9m, saving £2.7m (@Davefevs will have a more accurate amortisation forecast). So we can generously give ourselves a further £7m savings. Semenyo's £10m plus the £1-2m spent on Mehmeti and Cornick, means maybe a £8m profit. So our net gain over last season is something like £15m.

Add that to last year's losses and you're looking at a £13m loss for 2022/23.

So yeh, before Semenyo's sale we were probably on course for a low £20m's loss this season.

We might see some extra income somewhere (for example we have about £300k coming from FIFA for Semenyo and Diedhou's time in Qatar), and maybe some other savings here and there, and it's a pretty rough formula just using the same % reductions as last season. But conversely any further free agent signings or payouts for add-ons to Cornick or Mehmeti will change that.

Edited February 1, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Red-Robbo]

2 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Surely as we are light at the back with our defense signings not getting through. Kalas will be a big part of the defensive set up for the rest of the season . Which I am cool with 

 

Depends, doesn't it, how the injury and long period out affects him. Some players are never as good again. Some have even come back better however. 

[Rocking Red Cyril]

5 minutes ago, James54De said:

No, he hasn’t. 

Just rechecked  and yes he has not gone. Sorry thought that went through last nite . My mistake . Well good cover for pring . I expect he on reduced contract now then ?

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Just rechecked  and yes he has not gone. Sorry thought that went through last nite . My mistake . Well good cover for pring . I expect he on reduced contract now then ?

Dasilva? No he'll be on the same contract, runs until the end of the season then he's a free agent. Nothing changed with him.

[Davefevs]

17 minutes ago, James54De said:

What are these other cost? Service payments on our debt? 

It’s the big unknown that isn’t really broken down in the accounts.  Undoubtedly costs incurred by Ashton Gate Ltd and Bristol Sport, charged to Football, but lord knows what else.

[bcfcredandwhite]

39 minutes ago, Selred said:

Been on the bench the last 2 games

Been on the bench the last 2 games

I'd not noticed that. That's good news. 

[Mad Cyril]

10 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

@Davefevs

Might see some extra income somewhere (for example we have about £300k coming from FIFA for Semenyo and Diedhou's time in Qatar).

Why would FIFA send us money for Diedhou when he isn't our player. Is this a bung or just dodgy money laundering?

[Rocking Red Cyril]

10 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Dasilva? No he'll be on the same contract, runs until the end of the season then he's a free agent. Nothing changed with him.

Okies ta 

[soultrader]

11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It’s the big unknown that isn’t really broken down in the accounts.  Undoubtedly costs incurred by Ashton Gate Ltd and Bristol Sport, charged to Football, but lord knows what else.

Not having that .... a post based on actual checkable facts.

Whatever happend to wild conjecture?

 

 

[And Its Smith]

53 minutes ago, Percy Pig said:

Late to this but "academy aside" is actually the main bulk of the squad! 

And does Weimann and Wells being offered renewed terms negate who brought them in? 

This is still some way off being "Pearson's squad" imo, after the summer we will be most of the way to him having his first turn of having his own squad where nobody is here who he doesn't want to be. But even then, squad building is a process and we are trying to change things patiently.

Still, plenty to like about what's going on. If we can have a good summer I'm confident we've got a good chance of marked improvement in results next season.

If we don't scrape playoffs this time anyway  

I’m not sure there is a manager in the 92 clubs who would have signed every player in their squad.  Who bought Wells or Weimann in isn’t that relevant when you consider that Pearson wants them here and kept them here rather than moving them on. Two good decisions I would say.  After this summer Pearson will have either signed or given a contract to our first XI and a majority of our first team squad.  Kalas, Scott and Dasilva will leave and I would imagine a LB, 2 x CB and a CM will be signed.  That will certainly then be his squad.   Personally, I like to give a manager one year too long than one year too short so next season I would hope for mid table, positive goal difference,  defensive stability on the whole and better consistency in performance.  Play off push 2024/5

[Red-Robbo]

2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

I’m not sure there is a manager in the 92 clubs who would have signed every player in their squad. 

 

Well, maybe Gareth Ainsworth