Where does this leave us?

[One Team]

Where does it leave us? 

Having had probably the best January in recent memory I would suggest:

Unbeaten the whole month, several superb performances, a good sale of Semenyo, dead wood moved on, wage bill reduced, some excellent  signings and a plum 5th round FA Cup draw.

Perhaps light in one or two areas but overall the squad looks very exciting. 

”Pearson out” seems a very long month ago!

[steviestevieneville]

9 minutes ago, One Team said:

Where does it leave us? 

Having had probably the best January in recent memory I would suggest:

Unbeaten the whole month, several superb performances, a good sale of Semenyo, dead wood moved on, wage bill reduced, some excellent  signings and a plum 5th round FA Cup draw.

Perhaps light in one or two areas but overall the squad looks very exciting. 

”Pearson out” seems a very long month ago!

Totally agree, we’re in a much better place on & off the pitch now. It won’t stop the usual suspects crawling out the woodwork though if we get beat Saturday . 
Im looking forward to watching the new signings plus Sam bell & Scott  who’s been Superb. Stay up then build again in the summer. 

[One Team]

Just now, steviestevieneville said:

Totally agree, we’re in a much better place on & off the pitch now. It won’t stop the usual suspects crawling out the woodwork though if we get beat Saturday . 
Im looking forward to watching the new signings plus Sam bell & Scott  who’s been Superb. Stay up then build again in the summer. 

Yep, lose at Preston and Cornick and Mehmeti will be shite, even if they don’t play!

[glynriley]

41 minutes ago, One Team said:

”Pearson out” seems a very long month ago!

Don’t worry, it’s still lurking in the shadows. 
And in some cases, full view. 

[AshtonRobin21]

Where does it leave us?

It puts us 6 months ahead of schedule.

I would say it’s a very successful window. We generated funds from Antoine, and saw some big earners leave. 

Sad to see them all go, they all did very well and were fully committed during their time with us.

But we have made a big step forward in regards to shaping our future squad. Mehmeti and Cornick will offer quality at key times, as well as strengthening our wide options, which we previously lacked. 

The groundwork has been done for Currie (Wimbledon), and I think we will see him arrive in the summer. 

For the first time, in a long time, I would describe our situation as Healthy.

Great work from all involved. 

[James54De]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

On "healthy" finances this season. I suspect that even with the Semenyo income and further wage savings (mainly Bentley and Wells) we're still going to be looking at approximately a £15m loss. Now that's very good coming down from a £28m loss last season, but it's not exactly healthy.

There may therefore be some temptation to sell Scott before the financial year end on 31 May in order to push us into profit this season (assuming he goes for more than £15m).

Really? Surely we were not on course for a 22 million pound loss this season?

[Bodiesaffer]

Good window, added two solid players, we’ve been playing are best football this month. Saturday FA cup win was the best I’ve seen for along time. Keep that going and we will nearly make the playoffs, or just sneak in. We need to hit promotion form and keep that going til the end.   Taking that momentum into the next.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Bodiesaffer

[Shuffle]

The two wide players signed is very good business. As others have said, CB is massively exposed & we are an injury or suspension away from disaster. Out of interest has Naismith ever played in a 2? 

[Galley is our king]

8 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

It certainly looks like a much changed , more risky squad than a month ago. We have lost a lot of experience but brought in some excitement if you include Bell coming through.

A little light in defence and a player too many in attacking areas perhaps 

Well 2 attackers left and 2 joined.

They tried to address the defence issues but it didn't happen. Glad to see we didn't just get a body in to make the numbers up.

So, better squad I think plus circa 7 to 8 million in the bank.

Not a bad window...

 

[Northern Red]

58 minutes ago, One Team said:

Yep, lose at Preston and Cornick and Mehmeti will be shite, even if they don’t play!

If they don't play it'll be "why didn't they start?"

[cityexile]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

On "healthy" finances this season. I suspect that even with the Semenyo income and further wage savings (mainly Bentley and Wells) we're still going to be looking at approximately a £15m loss. Now that's very good coming down from a £28m loss last season, but it's not exactly healthy.

There may therefore be some temptation to sell Scott before the financial year end on 31 May in order to push us into profit this season (assuming he goes for more than £15m).

It could be equally argued the other way about Scott.

As I understand it, our allowed losses are a rolling three year average. If we are now content that the three years including this one are now compliant (and the club believed they just were before the sale of AS) then there is every benefit to selling Alex in the next financial year. We then get the 'benefit' of that income for 3 years from then, an extra year. It would be almost be accounting vanity to get his sale in this year (not that I think we can now anyway?).

Completely right of you to point out it does not make us sustainable yet without SLs support. Its fine being allowed to lose £x'm over three years, but somebody has to fund that.

Edited February 1, 2023 by cityexile

[Northern Red]

Just now, cityexile said:

It could be equally argued the other way about Scott.

As I understand it, our allowed losses are a rolling three year average. If we are now content that the three years including this one are now compliant (and the club believed they just were before the sale of AS) then there is every benefit to selling AS in the next financial year. We then get the 'benefit' of that income for 3 years from then, an extra year. It would be almost be accounting vanity to get his sale in this year (not that I think we can now anyway?).

Completely right of you to point out it does not make us sustainable yet without SLs support. Its fine being allowed to lose £x'm over three years, but somebody has to fund that.

Which is exactly what happened with Lloyd Kelly, causing a major headache 3 years down the line.

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, cityexile said:

It could be equally argued the other way about Scott.

As I understand it, our allowed losses are a rolling three year average. If we are now content that the three years including this one are now compliant (and the club believed they just were before the sale of AS) then there is every benefit to selling AS in the next financial year. We then get the 'benefit' of that income for 3 years from then, an extra year. It would be almost be accounting vanity to get his sale in this year (not that I think we can now anyway?).

Completely right of you to point out it does not make us sustainable yet without SLs support. Its fine being allowed to lose £x'm over three years, but somebody has to fund that.

When we book Scott changes things as you say. Booking him earlier also means he drops out of that 3 year cycle earlier. IIRC we had that issue with Kelly. We booked him in May of 2019 which meant that we ran into problems a year earlier down the line. COVID aggregation saved us that time, but probably won't next time.

I do lean towards your reasoning of smoothing the "profit" out over more years. However if people want to spend, spend, spend this summer there is a short term benefit to booking Scott's money this financial year. I believe we could do that if we agreed the contract and received money in May, with his registration then transferring in June once the window opens. I think that's what we did with Kelly. @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous can probably correct me.

3 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

Which is exactly what happened with Lloyd Kelly, causing a major headache 3 years down the line.

As said.

[GrahamC]

9 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

The two wide players signed is very good business. As others have said, CB is massively exposed & we are an injury or suspension away from disaster. Out of interest has Naismith ever played in a 2? 

Not sure he has.

I’m more relaxed about it because the Palace centre back we were after (& didn’t get) was surely a project, rather than a definite option based on his career so far, so wouldn’t have added much this season.

We are paying Kalas a huge sum & so hopefully if needed he can return to his best. I don’t see Idehen featuring in the squad so if we were really stretched then Tanner could do a job at CB with Wilson back, Williams (more likely in a back four) or King would step in.

I appreciate Naismith is currently a first choice in midfield but if you include him we now have 8 senior defenders, all of whom are fit (Wilson maybe not enough to start) that seems ok to me.

[Redrascal2]

There seemed to be a lot of defenders signed on loan from Premiership teams last night. I am surprised if we couldn't get the lad from Crystal Palace we could not have moved on and got someone else in.

[Sir Geoff]

9 minutes ago, cityexile said:

It could be equally argued the other way about Scott.

As I understand it, our allowed losses are a rolling three year average. If we are now content that the three years including this one are now compliant (and the club believed they just were before the sale of AS) then there is every benefit to selling Alex in the next financial year. We then get the 'benefit' of that income for 3 years from then, an extra year. It would be almost be accounting vanity to get his sale in this year (not that I think we can now anyway?).

Completely right of you to point out it does not make us sustainable yet without SLs support. Its fine being allowed to lose £x'm over three years, but somebody has to fund that.

Or you sell him for £30 million and accept 3 x £10 million in staged payments. Therefore still able to use the last payment for accounting ffp in 5 years time.

[The hand of RO'D]

Have I dreamt this up or did I see a post on here claiming Pearson to have 20m to spend next season?

[Northern Red]

1 minute ago, Redrascal2 said:

There seemed to be a lot of defenders signed on loan from Premiership teams last night. I am surprised if we couldn't get the lad from Crystal Palace we could not have moved on and got someone else in.

They obviously didn't think it was essential. We're no longer going to be signing people just for the sake of it and, as mentioned above, the Palace lad was obviously going to be a long term thing whereas anyone coming in on loan from the PL would be expecting to be first choice straight away, with costs to reflect that.

[Super]

It leaves us in a good position to avoid relegation.

[italian dave]

8 hours ago, Davefevs said:

It is….but it’s a compromised squad, a squad “developed” out of necessity in the main.  It is not his chosen squad.  That starts to happen in the summer.  So let’s recognise that before we get too carried away!

I know it’s your nature Dave, and not knocking it, but I think you’re being exceptionally generous to NP here!

It’s already way more ‘his’ squad than is the case for most managers at this level. As @Harry said initially, all bar two are players he’s brought in or brought through from the academy. 

It goes with the territory of football management that you have to work with what you inherit and very few managers get the time to make changes to the extent NP has had.

Whether it’s his ‘chosen’ players is always going to be a matter of compromise. Unless you’re a Chelsea or a Man City then financial constraints alone are huge for anyone and it’s just a question of degree.

If NP was reporting to me then I’d certainly not be accepting any ‘it’s not my squad’ excuses! 

[Johnny Musicworks]

The contrast between our optimism after a mostly successful window can be contrasted with the gloom over at Swansea who failed to bring in any of their targets because of financial constrictions. Those constrictions were the same as we were under prior to the Semenyo deal. We will all miss Semenyo but it really has given us a financial security that has been absent during Nigel’s reign. We really should have enough now to maintain better form over the rest of the season and start to line up summer targets (even without a potential Scott sale). I suspect a good few of our rivals will be casting envious eyes over our situation going forward. 

[ExiledAjax]

This is how our January shook out then. 3 in and 7 out. 

Initially I'm expecting Cornick to be first XI pretty soon, with Mehmeti and Haikin in the 18 but not necessarily getting loads of minutes in the next few weeks.

Outgoings are really good imo. An academy success story in Towler getting a contract at an EFL club. A big book for the club getting Semenyo out for a good fee. Shifting Bentley, Massengo, Martin and Klose off the wage bill (plus presumably small fees for Bentley and Massengo). Bajic getting minutes at Valenciennes.

Edit: forgot Kadji - and so have transfermarkt - I guess because he's not officially a first team player? Anyway, that's another nice local loan where he should get some good minutes.

I think O'Brien would have been the icing on the cake but overall the squad looks good.

Edited February 1, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[NewquayRed]

5 minutes ago, italian dave said:

I know it’s your nature Dave, and not knocking it, but I think you’re being exceptionally generous to NP here!

It’s already way more ‘his’ squad than is the case for most managers at this level. As @Harry said initially, all bar two are players he’s brought in or brought through from the academy. 

It goes with the territory of football management that you have to work with what you inherit and very few managers get the time to make changes to the extent NP has had.

Whether it’s his ‘chosen’ players is always going to be a matter of compromise. Unless you’re a Chelsea or a Man City then financial constraints alone are huge for anyone and it’s just a question of degree.

If NP was reporting to me then I’d certainly not be accepting any ‘it’s not my squad’ excuses! 

Expectation levels both from the club and fans next season are likely to be off the scale, rightly so with the progress being made. 

[italian dave]

6 minutes ago, NewquayRed said:

Expectation levels both from the club and fans next season are likely to be off the scale, rightly so with the progress being made. 

Indeed, and that’s where I’d accept that @Davefevs is right to sound that note of caution. Financially, we are more constrained than we were 5 years ago, and those compromises mean that we can’t compete for either experienced Czech internationals or for young star prospects from Monaco! 

What we don’t know is what expectations SL has set (or whether he dares tell NP!). It was very clear that the expectation on LJ his final season was top 6 and nothing less. That’s clearly not the target expected of NP this season, and probably won’t be next either. 

[NorthBris_Southstand]

35 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Or you sell him for £30 million and accept 3 x £10 million in staged payments. Therefore still able to use the last payment for accounting ffp in 5 years time.

I'm afraid that's not the way it'd work. The sale is accounted for in the P/L in the year it happens, therefore staging payments impacts cashflow but not the ffp calculations currently.

[ExiledAjax]

16 minutes ago, NewquayRed said:

Expectation levels both from the club and fans next season are likely to be off the scale, rightly so with the progress being made. 

Off the scale? Is that fair? It's been a good window but it's not like we've signed Premier League level players by the bucketload. I think we could be on for a top ten finish next season assuming the summer goes well, but I still think we are a few signings and a new manager away from promotion.

39 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Or you sell him for £30 million and accept 3 x £10 million in staged payments. Therefore still able to use the last payment for accounting ffp in 5 years time.

Staging payments works when buying a player due to the accounting principle of amortising an asset. However, when you sell you book all certain income right then and there. Uncertain future payments such as add-ons come later, but you cannot stage the initial payment over a number of years, even if that is how it is in the contract.

Edited February 1, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[GrahamC]

22 minutes ago, Johnny Musicworks said:

The contrast between our optimism after a mostly successful window can be contrasted with the gloom over at Swansea who failed to bring in any of their targets because of financial constrictions. Those constrictions were the same as we were under prior to the Semenyo deal. We will all miss Semenyo but it really has given us a financial security that has been absent during Nigel’s reign. We really should have enough now to maintain better form over the rest of the season and start to line up summer targets (even without a potential Scott sale). I suspect a good few of our rivals will be casting envious eyes over our situation going forward. 

Cardiff too only brought in one player on loan in the entire month.

It has been a really strange month, the likes of Wigan & Rotherham (added by the Barlaser sale) have brought in a lot of players, whereas others haven’t.

Huddersfield have also done a lot of deals, so will be fascinating to see who improves & who doesn’t.

We have played a game more than a few but go into the latter part of the season 7 points clear of the bottom three, with a superior goal difference to everyone down there & on a 7 game unbeaten run.

[NewquayRed]

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Off the scale? Is that fair? It's been a good window but it's not like we've signed Premier League level players by the bucketload. I think we could be on for a top ten finish next season assuming the summer goes well, but I still think we are a few signings and a new manager away from promotion.

Staging payments works when buying a player due to the accounting principle of amortising an asset. However, when you sell you book all certain income right then and there. Uncertain future payments such as add-ons come later, but you cannot stage the initial payment over a number of years, even if that is how it is in the contract.

This was based on the manager we have, his growing influence on this team and the players I hope he will attract in the summer with some money to spend. Its gonna be new territory form NP as far as were concerned, FFP pressures should have eased, and I expect there to be a real buzz about the place.  Even better if we can end this season and get that top 10 this year.  Feels like we are slowly getting the balance of academy, young hungry players and experience about right.

Bring it on !

[Alessandro]

It's a good window.

Semenyo is a big loss but it was an inevitable loss and the much needed cash softens the blow. Scott stays, for now.

Gould's exceptional work at balancing Ashton's books took another huge step forward - we're can't be far off where we need to be now, financially at least. I am VERY glad the hear the reports on Currie's negotiation - under Ashton we'd have just paid the asking price and worried later. 

The squad? We've got options. It's young and exciting which is the route we should go. I don't think we'll struggle for goals.

CB is the main area of concern, one injury and we're back to considering King at CB and we can all remember the team's league trajectory when that was happening.

January on the pitch was a very good one, confidence returning, momentum building, opportunities taken, injured players closer to the side again. 

A good solid mid-table push would set us up nicely for the summer now. COYR.

[bcfcredandwhite]

Pleased with the new signings but feel we should have focussed more on strengthening at the back, where we've needed to strengthen for some time. Now we haven't even got the option of Klose - and we don't know how long before Kalas will be fit again. 

I really hope there are some good freebies out there that we are looking at.