Merrick's Marvels Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Even the complete Manning haters can’t believe it’s huge regression really. Name me one poster who has said they hate Manning. You can't, so wind your neck in. As for a father figure - it's Bristol City that needs that. History tells us so or have you not been paying attention? Edited March 8 by Merrick's Marvels 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltons Army Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Nobody has said it is positive. It has been argued it’s not huge regression. Even the complete Manning haters can’t believe it’s huge regression really. Pearson was a father figure to some fans who maybe need one. Manning isn’t. But going over the top wiry criticism isn’t necessary Uhmmmm You wanted him sacked Immediately the other day On 03/03/2024 at 00:19, Leabrook said: People have called me a Bristol sport employee just because I didn’t rate Pearson has highly as others! Manning tipped me over the edge today. He’s got to go now Edited March 8 by Sheltons Army 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said: Uhmmmm You wanted him sacked Immediately the other day There’s a difference between that and WANTING him to fail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) What would you call it @Kid in the Riot Genuinely what gives you the hope that we will trend in a better direction. Manning is one problem, the bigger issue is Jon Lansdown and Tinnion but.. PPG down Win rate down Relative League position down as well as actual. Closer to the drop zone and further from the playoffs in respect of absolute points, relative points, absolute and relative League positions. XG (as @Davefevs mentioned elsewhere) also regressing. GD down a little. Doesn't even feel like we are standing still let alone progressing. Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrizzleRed Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 32 minutes ago, Fjmcity said: Strong similarities in baggage too, LJs due him dividing opinion after his playing days and LM having to follow Jesus Christ himself. underwhelming is a good summation for sure and we are certainly at cross roads and we are potentially facing the sunk cost fallacy. Yes, totally agree in the divided opinion. Wouldn’t it be great if we actually found something we generally agreed on someday? Never gonna happen though! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltons Army Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 4 minutes ago, Leabrook said: There’s a difference between that and WANTING him to fail The ‘Wanting him to fail’ claims are complete fiction and nonsense Made up and used in some weird desperate deflection from those who were NP critics and wanted change Good to know that you don’t want him to fail but want him sacked right now though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) Also just checked... Under NP we had an XGD of -1.6 from his 14. Under Fleming it was +0.3, so -1.3 from 15. Under Manning it is -3.5 from 21. Penalties count for 0.8 each of course but I haven't bothered to count those in terms of splitting into with and without. They cancel out somewhat under Manning..3 For, 4 Against- 3 apiece converted and conceded, 1 saved. 1 Against under NP. I don't know how saved penalties count for it but scored penalties is still -3.5 under Manning, -0.8 under NP and -0.5 by the Fleming game. Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, Sheltons Army said: The ‘Wanting him to fail’ claims are complete fiction and nonsense Made up and used in some weird desperate deflection from those who were NP critics and wanted change Good to know that you don’t want him to fail but want him sacked right now though Do you want him sacked ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fjmcity Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 5 minutes ago, BrizzleRed said: Yes, totally agree in the divided opinion. Wouldn’t it be great if we actually found something we generally agreed on someday? Never gonna happen though! I am sure even if we hired pep some would doubt his record Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) 6 minutes ago, BrizzleRed said: Yes, totally agree in the divided opinion. Wouldn’t it be great if we actually found something we generally agreed on someday? Never gonna happen though! Totally divided views,.Manning, or rather less him more the rationale behind the change. It seems a pretty split fanbase IMO. Which is a shame. Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cidre Monita Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 37 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: I'll hold my hands up, maybe huge regression is overplaying it but the direction of travel is alarming. No you’re right mate, stand by your guns. Unfortunately I think things are only going to get worse. Remember we have only got 2 fit centre backs and god help us if we lose one/both to injury. I think a lot of our fan base will only ‘wake up’ when we’re playing the Gas next year in a league derby and I don’t think they’ll get promoted! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltons Army Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Do you want him sacked ? At this moment no But alarm bells ringing and definitely a decision to be made in the last gasps of the season with regards to the summer window and next season Needs to be far more positive indicators for me by then 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 Just adding some context that typically the gap between top-6 and bottom-3 is circa just 0.50 points per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrizzleRed Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 14 minutes ago, Fjmcity said: I am sure even if we hired pep some would doubt his record Could be right there, but that’s one theory that sure as hell won’t get put to the test 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 17 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said: At this moment no But alarm bells ringing and definitely a decision to be made in the last gasps of the season with regards to the summer window and next season Needs to be far more positive indicators for me by then Fair enough. I don’t think those that want him sacked necessarily want him to fail. There are a few fans though that post on here all day long every day that seem like they do 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 18 minutes ago, Cidre Monita said: No you’re right mate, stand by your guns. Unfortunately I think things are only going to get worse. Remember we have only got 2 fit centre backs and god help us if we lose one/both to injury. I think a lot of our fan base will only ‘wake up’ when we’re playing the Gas next year in a league derby and I don’t think they’ll get promoted! You think we will go down? Can’t tell if you are serious or not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrizzleRed Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 18 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Totally divided views,.Manning, or rather less him more the rationale behind the change. It seems a pretty split fanbase IMO. Which is a shame. A recurrent theme at City unfortunately. It amazes me sometimes that we all actually follow the same club. You just know that if we ever did get someone good enough for us to all get behind, they’ll be gone in a flash, as they get head-hunted by by a bigger club!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, BrizzleRed said: A recurrent theme at City unfortunately. It amazes me sometimes that we all actually follow the same club. You just know that if we ever did get someone good enough for us to all get behind, they’ll be gone in a flash, as they get head-hunted by by a bigger club!!! The last manager we had who left us for bigger things was Joe Jordan wasn’t it? 1990 ish. Unless I’ve forgotten someone that is an incredibly bad record that I cannot imagine being beaten! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Just adding some context that typically the gap between top-6 and bottom-3 is circa just 0.50 points per game. Seems a bit higher to date..38 from 36 for Stoke in 22nd, 57 from 36 for Hull in 6th. How long there will be a higher bar at the bottom end who knows. We based on trajectory should have another 5-6 pts probably, 7 even? Top 6 no, realistic chance of 10th or 11th yeah. 7 minutes ago, Leabrook said: The last manager we had who left us for bigger things was Joe Jordan wasn’t it? 1990 ish. Unless I’ve forgotten someone that is an incredibly bad record that I cannot imagine being beaten! A certain Pulis went a bit higher albeit it was to the delight of us fans... Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrizzleRed Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 8 minutes ago, Leabrook said: The last manager we had who left us for bigger things was Joe Jordan wasn’t it? 1990 ish. Unless I’ve forgotten someone that is an incredibly bad record that I cannot imagine being beaten! JJ was certainly the only successful one we had pinched off us for decades. Unbelievably I think Pulis was also nicked, rather than sacked, though City fans were so relieved to see the back of him, it felt like a massive positive. I completely agree with you, it’s a really horrific indictment of our bleedin awful choices of managers and head coaches over many years. It’s happened way too often to be just bad luck and to me, points to the underlying problem at this club and it won’t be cured by just getting rid of Manning. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, Fjmcity said: It seemed likely it would come to an end, great job done by NP but there wasn’t much to signal (in my opinion) that he would take us to the next level.. I should also add LM has not provided any indication of that either we would be fighting for playoffs Based on what? the capitulation based on the same data set from last season seems to suggest we wouldn’t be So what we can deduce from these stats is that neither Manning nor Pearson performed particularly well, but Pearson performed slightly less bad than Manning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 29 minutes ago, BrizzleRed said: A recurrent theme at City unfortunately. It amazes me sometimes that we all actually follow the same club. You just know that if we ever did get someone good enough for us to all get behind, they’ll be gone in a flash, as they get head-hunted by by a bigger club!!! We just got rid of one. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrizzleRed Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, AshtonGreat said: So what we can deduce from these stats is that neither Manning nor Pearson performed particularly well, but Pearson performed slightly less bad than Manning The team morale, work ethic, fitness levels and various other factors were very different. Far too nuanced to be directly comparing both records. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, Galley is our king said: Well it certainly doesn't show anything remotely positive does it? I cannot agree with the way @Harry has worked this. If you went back to that moment in time and did the same calculation for all the teams in the league no one would have changed positions! Some teams in the relegation places would probably now be on mimus points! Ppg is the only real barometer and yes, we HAVE regressed! Funny now we want " context" now but lots poo pood the injuries under Pearson eh? Sorry @Harry looks like you are trying to spin Mannings stats higher than they actually are. I’ve not said it’s a positive by any means but I also don’t think you can actually argue with my stats. If after 15 games we were 4 points off the playoffs, then, if the next set of 15 games carried on the same trend then you’d be a further 4 points off, equals 8 points off after 30. So on the same trend after 38 games you’d be 10 points off. There’s nothing to dispute - it’s just mathematics. We are currently 13 points off. So presently we are 3 points behind the trend set after 15 games. Is that good? Nope. Am I defending Manning? Nope. But the math is the math. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merrick's Marvels Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, Harry said: I’ve not said it’s a positive by any means but I also don’t think you can actually argue with my stats. If after 15 games we were 4 points off the playoffs, then, if the next set of 15 games carried on the same trend then you’d be a further 4 points off, equals 8 points off after 30. So on the same trend after 38 games you’d be 10 points off. There’s nothing to dispute - it’s just mathematics. But football ain't mathematics! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Harry said: I’ve not said it’s a positive by any means but I also don’t think you can actually argue with my stats. If after 15 games we were 4 points off the playoffs, then, if the next set of 15 games carried on the same trend then you’d be a further 4 points off, equals 8 points off after 30. So on the same trend after 38 games you’d be 10 points off. There’s nothing to dispute - it’s just mathematics. We are currently 13 points off. So presently we are 3 points behind the trend set after 15 games. Is that good? Nope. Am I defending Manning? Nope. But the math is the math. Agree on the basic maths point albeit let's say for arguments sake we continue on 1.4 PPG. We are on 50 points. We are 6 better off and 7 off 6th which is actually slightly better than the trend. Safe, steady. Looking alright for a top half finish. Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slack Bladder Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 3 hours ago, Harry said: I guess what I’d say (and this is no defence of Manning by the way), is that you haven’t really factored in the relativity. Relatively speaking, if we were 4 points off the playoffs after 15 games, then under the same trends we’d be 8 points off the playoffs after 30 games. Now on 36 games, under the same trends, we’d be roughly 9.5 to 10 points off the playoffs (well, 10 would be after 37.5 games in that 15 game model). So we are currently 13 points off the playoffs, so the relative regression is only 3 points. I like this theory. If only we could win our first five games. Then we should win the league without dropping a point. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 27 minutes ago, BrizzleRed said: The team morale, work ethic, fitness levels and various other factors were very different. Far too nuanced to be directly comparing both records. Yes true - and Pearson had longer to work with the players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fjmcity Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 38 minutes ago, AshtonGreat said: So what we can deduce from these stats is that neither Manning nor Pearson performed particularly well, but Pearson performed slightly less bad than Manning Exactly, although there is still time for manning to be less badder in a direct comparison on these stats adjusted for season end. I can’t see sky covering the race for mid table anytime soon tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 (edited) If we were to compare purely on NP then yes we were 15th and 15th but 4 points off the playoffs. NP- 5 wins in 14 games. Manning- 6 wins in 21 games. Proportionately NP 25% better off. NP- 18 pts, 14 games. Manning- 23 pts, 21 games. Proportionately, NP 17.39% better off. Even had Manning maintained the baseline excluding Fleming, we would have 4 more points than we do now. On track for 59 points. 60-61 if we include the Fleming game. We will need to go some now to even hit high 50s. Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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