Fair Targets for Manning

[Numero Uno]

I hear a lot of comments saying "he needs more time", "what can he do with these players" (despite being brought in to improve "these players") plus some complete and utter dribbling mess by the Tekkers Dictator about everyone being happy after Southampton etc. etc. Surely there has to be a common ground of targets that he needs to hit WITH THESE PLAYERS over the last nine games otherwise the club need to be ruthless and say thanks Liam but you ain't doing it and we can't risk giving you £6m and failing. For me:

MINIMUM 59 Points (same as last season)

Two wins MINIMUM out of Huddersfield, Blackburn and Rotherham

A MINIMUM of five of our remaining nine games where people come away generally having enjoyed the football on offer

13K MINIMUM Season Tickets Sold (otherwise it's clear too many fans aren't on board with him)

Anything less than the above and I think it's fair to fire him. Anything unfair in the above?

Edited March 11 by Numero Uno

[LondonBristolian]

Realistically the club aren’t going to make any kind of change unless our form is utterly disastrous. (Unlike other posters, I actually think his job would have been in genuine jeopardy if we had performed worse at Ipswich and then lost to Swansea). So I think - bar failing to win another game - any discussion of what would see Manning sacked is ultimately fruitless.

In terms of what would reassure me he was the right man, I see no reason why we shouldn’t be targeting 16 points from our remaining 9 fixtures.
From memory, there are 5 games I would make us favourites for and others we are capable of getting results from so I see no reason why that is not a reasonable target.

I also want to see players who are tangibly improving under Manning and some evidence he wants to develop our young players and keep the pathway to the first team intact.

Others may disagree but I’m not so worried about the quality/attractiveness of the football as long as we are getting results. However, if we are underperforming slightly on results but are genuinely competitive and enjoyable to watch then I would be less rigid on that 16 point target. But ultimately - whilst I know Manning will be there for the start of next season bar a complete disaster - quite a bit needs to happen before I feel any optimism or enthusiasm about that prospect.

Edited March 11 by LondonBristolian

[INCRED]

The only thing missing is consistency of performance 

This squad can produce moments of excellence countered by moments of mediocrity 

On their day they can beat anyone as well as lose to anyone 

We know we are missing a goal scoring No9 as what we have at the club currently isn’t good enough

We also lack that creativity to unlock low block defences which needs addressing 

Has BT and the board got a solution in place for the summer as they appear to be saying that is the priority?

Is Manning & his assistant able to coach us into a style and winning team that will challenge next season - who knows but throwing him under the bus so soon is not going to happen with this board & owner until Manning has had a pre season with new players and next season to put into practice what they saw in him 

If he fails miserably and we are fighting for our lives near the lower end of the league then someone will open the trap door and wave LM goodbye 

 

[Philly The Kid]

I don't think he'll get the sack this season (Unless we were in real danger of relegation) simply because the pressure all goes back on the owners and Tins who've led us down this road. They won't admit failure.

I think they'll say that he deserves a full pre season with some new faces specifically recruited to suit his style of play (Whatever that is) and he'll then get 10 games.
There will be be exits and incomings, I don't think Conway will stay and I'd be surprised if there aren't 3 or 4 out the door also. The incomings (In addition to those already planned) are the key.
If he loses the first 5 he's gone and if he gets us off to a good start then confidence will grow and who knows what could happen.
My worst fear is we win a couple lose a couple a draw a few, that doesn't do anything for progression and leaves us back where we are. Bit like the Chinese water torture.
FWIW, I don't think he's the right fit here, he possibly could be with an experienced director of football who knows what he's doing but the tri party structure of JL, tins and Manning doesn't work. There's very little proper football experience there. Coaching is one thing, running a championship club is quite another.

[Dr Balls]

In simplistic terms, the barest minimum expectation for Manning should be 63 points at the end of the season, on the basis that we we had 21 for 15 when he took over, and a top half finish, as that’s where we were in the league table when he was appointed. Anything else would suggest a regression even if you ignore the shockingly bad and boring way he has the team set up and playing, where the scoring of goals seems to have been forgotten somewhere along the line.

And no I don’t accept the “it’s not his players” argument. Good managers and coaches can use the players they have and amend their tactics accordingly and successfully. Bad ones blame the players!

[Dr Balls]

1 minute ago, INCRED said:

The only thing missing is consistency of performance 

This squad can produce moments of excellence countered by moments of mediocrity 

On their day they can beat anyone as well as lose to anyone 

We know we are missing a goal scoring No9 as what we have at the club currently isn’t good enough

We also lack that creativity to unlock low block defences which needs addressing 

Has BT and the board got a solution in place for the summer as they appear to be saying that is the priority?

Is Manning & his assistant able to coach us into a style and winning team that will challenge next season - who knows but throwing him under the bus so soon is not going to happen with this board & owner until Manning has had a pre season with new players and next season to put into practice what they saw in him 

If he fails miserably and we are fighting for our lives near the lower end of the league then someone will open the trap door and wave LM goodbye 

 

I accept we don’t have a traditional centre forward but we don’t lack goal scoring strikers. But as I have said before, playing Manning’s system, any striker would struggle to get more than 10 goals a season. It’s the tactics and set up more than the players and that’s on him.

[Robbored]

34 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

13K MINIMUM Season Tickets Sold (otherwise it's clear too many fans aren't on board with him)

Anything less than the above and I think it's fair to fire him. Anything unfair in the above?

Whilst it’s only a small number of fans but those I’ve spoken with are still very pissed of with Nige’s sacking and several are saying that they won’t renew their SCs as a protest so if true to their word I’d be surprised if City reach 13k of SC sales - one said to me that his frustration with the Lansdowns combined and a likely hike in SC prices will deter him from renewing.

[ashton_fan]

To get to the 59 points from last season we need 4 wins from the last 12 which we should achieve fairly easily. In all the stats quoted on here the 4 cup games against Premier League opposition aren't taken into account, they show what we're now capable of but also they must have had a detrimental effect on our league form through the resulting fixture congestion, so it will be interesting to see if our league form picks up now we haven't got that additional burden.

[Silvio Dante]

44 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

I hear a lot of comments saying "he needs more time", "what can he do with these players" (despite being brought in to improve "these players") plus some complete and utter dribbling mess by the Tekkers Dictator about everyone being happy after Southampton etc. etc. Surely there has to be a common ground of targets that he needs to hit WITH THESE PLAYERS over the last nine games otherwise the club need to be ruthless and say thanks Liam but you ain't doing it and we can't risk giving you £6m and failing. For me:

MINIMUM 59 Points (same as last season)

Two wins MINIMUM out of Huddersfield, Blackburn and Rotherham

A MINIMUM of five of our remaining nine games where people come away generally having enjoyed the football on offer

13K MINIMUM Season Tickets Sold (otherwise it's clear too many fans aren't on board with him)

Anything less than the above and I think it's fair to fire him. Anything unfair in the above?

With the caveat that I’d get rid now (I don’t think even if he gets his players it stops his fatal flaw of game management) I’m less concerned about results than I am about performance. Your third bullet is the key here because points can easily be gained by performances like yesterday and all that will happen is that regression will occur, as we’ve seen to date.

I get the points being a tangible but for me it’s broader.

The clincher for the board however will be the last point. It’s one thing us venting on a forum - it’s completely another to see people starting to rattle around a ground like yesterday.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Numero Uno said:

I hear a lot of comments saying "he needs more time", "what can he do with these players" (despite being brought in to improve "these players") plus some complete and utter dribbling mess by the Tekkers Dictator about everyone being happy after Southampton etc. etc. Surely there has to be a common ground of targets that he needs to hit WITH THESE PLAYERS over the last nine games otherwise the club need to be ruthless and say thanks Liam but you ain't doing it and we can't risk giving you £6m and failing. For me:

MINIMUM 59 Points (same as last season) it's already pretty unlikely that we hit 59. Extrapolate either Manning's overall ppg (1.18) or the ppg from the last set of games (it doesn't really matter how many games you select), and we fall short of 59. Even taking Pearson/Flemings rate of 1.4ppg over the first 15 and applying that to the next 9 only gets us to 60. Our best 10 game block of form this season is 1.7 ppg, apply that and we get to 62. So setting 59 as a presumably realistic target would be setting him up to fail at this point.

Two wins MINIMUM out of Huddersfield, Blackburn and Rotherham does it matter where we get our points? What if we lost all 3 of these but won all the other games? Is that still failure? What if we lost all three because in each one the referee gives two egregious penalties to the opposition? Results alone, especially against specific teams, should not be a barometer of success.

A MINIMUM of five of our remaining nine games where people come away generally having enjoyed the football on offer this cannot be measured. Targets should be measurable. How many "people"? Which "people"? Is there a minimum level of enjoyment that is acceptable?

13K MINIMUM Season Tickets Sold (otherwise it's clear too many fans aren't on board with him) what's the cut off date for this level of ST sale? 1st August? 

Anything less than the above and I think it's fair to fire him. Anything unfair in the above?

I might have been a bit harsh here and I'll give some alternative KPIs.

1. Over the final 9 games I want to see:

1.a. an average of 13 shots per game (current average is 11.5);

1.b. an average of 4 shots on target per game (current average is 3.6); and

1.c. average xG from open play of 0.9 per game (current average is 0.71)

2. Name a full subs bench in every game. The season's done in terms of competition, so let's blood some youngsters.

3. Let's target 3 clean sheets in the final 9 games. 

As I say, this season is gone, done, all but finished, so let's focus on improving and finishing on an upward trajectory. That will lay good groundwork for whoever is in charge in 2024/25.

Edited March 11 by ExiledAjax

[Silvio Dante]

Just now, ashton_fan said:

To get to the 59 points from last season we need 4 wins from the last 12 which we should achieve fairly easily. In all the stats quoted on here the 4 cup games against Premier League opposition aren't taken into account, they show what we're now capable of but also they must have had a detrimental effect on our league form through the resulting fixture congestion, so it will be interesting to see if our league form picks up now we haven't got that additional burden.

For the last time.

At this level, teams will expect to get through the FA Cup third round, and play an average of 50-52 games a season. If you’re being generous, he had two more games tops. It wasn’t congestion - it was a schedule you’d expect more often than not. It is not a valid excuse under any metric.

And the performance against Forest and West Ham, although good, have to be tempered against the former having also drawn and gone to ET with Blackpool and the latter having all their attackers injured or sent off.

[ashton_fan]

1 minute ago, Silvio Dante said:

For the last time.

At this level, teams will expect to get through the FA Cup third round, and play an average of 50-52 games a season. If you’re being generous, he had two more games tops. It wasn’t congestion - it was a schedule you’d expect more often than not. It is not a valid excuse under any metric.

And the performance against Forest and West Ham, although good, have to be tempered against the former having also drawn and gone to ET with Blackpool and the latter having all their attackers injured or sent off.

"For the last time" - you sound like one of my old schoolmasters, I would have replied but it's obviously not allowed!

[Dr Balls]

3 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

To get to the 59 points from last season we need 4 wins from the last 12 which we should achieve fairly easily. In all the stats quoted on here the 4 cup games against Premier League opposition aren't taken into account, they show what we're now capable of but also they must have had a detrimental effect on our league form through the resulting fixture congestion, so it will be interesting to see if our league form picks up now we haven't got that additional burden.

You do realise that our last 3 wins in 13 games have all been when we have played teams that have had 70% possession? If you can find 4 more teams out of the ones we are due to play in the next 9 games that will have that much possession good luck!

The only home game that I am in anyway confident about is Rotherham because by then they will be relegated anyway. Leicester will need a win to maintain their push to win the league, so will come on strong, while Blackburn and Huddersfield will both be scrapping for a points. I would be amazed if we get more than 10 points from the remaining 9 games based on recent form.

[Silvio Dante]

1 minute ago, ashton_fan said:

"For the last time" - you sound like one of my old schoolmasters, I would have replied but it's obviously not allowed!

Sorry - just get frustrated with that argument when the schedule was far from unusual. However, even if for arguments sake we say it was, we’ve been worse since we came out of the “congestion” so it kind of nullifies the point!

[ExiledAjax]

24 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

In terms of what would reassure me he was the right man, I see no reason why we shouldn’t be targeting 16 points from our remaining 9 fixtures.

16 from 9 would mean we finished in the best form we've shown all season. Add yesterday's win and it's 19 from the final 10 - whisper it but that is top 6 form! I don't see how we can reasonably expect us to do that given recent performances. 

I think you're asking for an overnight revolution that has almost no chance of happening.

[ashton_fan]

4 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

Sorry - just get frustrated with that argument when the schedule was far from unusual. However, even if for arguments sake we say it was, we’ve been worse since we came out of the “congestion” so it kind of nullifies the point!

It doesn't nullify the point because the injuries we've picked up to Bell, Pring (although back now) and James might well not have happened without those extra matches

[Silvio Dante]

Just now, ashton_fan said:

It doesn't nullify the point because the injuries we've picked up to Bell, Pring (although back now) and James might well not have happened without those extra matches

Granted - however as @GrahamC often correctly points out our injury level is no worse than the average club so that doesn’t really get him out of jail either!

[LondonBristolian]

17 minutes ago, INCRED said:

The only thing missing is consistency of performance 

This squad can produce moments of excellence countered by moments of mediocrity 

On their day they can beat anyone as well as lose to anyone 

We know we are missing a goal scoring No9 as what we have at the club currently isn’t good enough

We also lack that creativity to unlock low block defences which needs addressing 

Has BT and the board got a solution in place for the summer as they appear to be saying that is the priority?

Is Manning & his assistant able to coach us into a style and winning team that will challenge next season - who knows but throwing him under the bus so soon is not going to happen with this board & owner until Manning has had a pre season with new players and next season to put into practice what they saw in him 

If he fails miserably and we are fighting for our lives near the lower end of the league then someone will open the trap door and wave LM goodbye 

 

This is what worries me though.

I feel Manning inherited a team that was pretty consistent in terms of performances (if not results) and solid defensively but with a lack of quality in attack and my honest assessment to date is that he's undone those two strengths without addressing the weaknesses.

And the board and Technical Director stated at the time of Manning's appointment that the goal was to get someone in who could get the best out of our existing players. And, whilst it was obviously silly to suggest we had a top six squad, I do think we have the nucleus of a good squad of players.

I accept that it is near inevitable that Manning is going to stay until the start of next season but, at the moment, my honest feeling is that the most likely result of Manning being in charge for an extended period is going to be yet another rebuild (this time one that is completely unnecessary), a significant drop-off in opportunities to develop young talent and a bloated squad as we try to get players in that work for Manning's system but find it hard to shift players whose confidence and performance levels have dropped since he took charge. All of which seems utterly contrary to the interests of the club, irrespective of performances on the pitch. 

[SecretSam]

Bizarrely, if I move to Bristol I might be tempted to get a ST for the first time 

[Numero Uno]

14 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I might have been a bit harsh here and I'll give some alternative KPIs.

1. Over the final 9 games I want to see:

1.a. an average of 13 shots per game (current average is 11.5);

1.b. an average of 4 shots on target per game (current average is 3.6); and

1.c. average xG from open play of 0.9 per game (current average is 0.71)

2. Name a full subs bench in every game. The season's done in terms of competition, so let's blood some youngsters.

3. Let's target 3 clean sheets in the final 9 games. 

As I say, this season is gone, done, all but finished, so let's focus on improving and finishing on an upward trajectory. That will lay good groundwork for whoever is in charge in 2024/25.

Like it. Alternative targets and fair ones too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Fwiw we got from the following fixtures last year..

WBA (A)- W

Sunderland (A)- D

Blackburn (H)- D

Huddersfield (H)- W

Norwich (A)- L

Rotherham (H)- W

Stoke (A)- W

The unknowns are Leicester (H), Plymouth (A). Last year we gained 1 win and 2 losses at home v the 3 who went up and 2 draws and 1oss away to the 3 who went down.

Under NP we had +3 or +5 from the equivalent games, Fleming made sure it was +5.

[Davefevs]

19 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

I accept we don’t have a traditional centre forward but we don’t lack goal scoring strikers. But as I have said before, playing Manning’s system, any striker would struggle to get more than 10 goals a season. It’s the tactics and set up more than the players and that’s on him.

Out of interest, do you think if we had a traditional centre-forward, LM would’ve played any different?

I don’t!

And I’m not holding my breath on the target for the summer…trying to get the forward they describe is likely to be hard and against serious competition.  There wasn’t one to be found in January.

And as you say we don’t lack goal-scoring strikers….and to add….we lack service.

[RedRock]

We seem a Club in turmoil yet again.

Frankly, I don’t trust the Board, Technical Director or Coaches to make the right calls. We’ve reverted to go for the easy life. Jon has appointed a non-threatening technical director and coaching staff, rather than people who challenge and push boundaries. We’ve adopted the lame ‘jam tomorrow’, rather than the more difficult to achieve and easier to be judged on ‘here and now’ transfer strategy. Reverted back to passive play on the pitch, lacking adventure, excitement and risk. It’s all very much back to the ‘comfy club’ of days of past. 

So, given the ‘don’t rock the boat’ approach, I suspect  Manning will be here for 2024/25, bar a disastrous end of season set of results - which, admittedly, isn’t beyond him. 

Question for me is will SL let us drift back to mediocracy, or will he intervene and appoint a CEO overseer with football expertise that will crack rather whip. That could be the most important signing of the next few months, together with a medical expert and chief scout. Time for the Club’s ‘continuous improvement’ mantra to become action rather than just words methinks. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

Granted - however as @GrahamC often correctly points out our injury level is no worse than the average club so that doesn’t really get him out of jail either!

Ipswich ironically get a lot less.

[Numero Uno]

22 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Whilst it’s only a small number of fans but those I’ve spoken with are still very pissed of with Nige’s sacking and several are saying that they won’t renew their SCs as a protest so if true to their word I’d be surprised if City reach 13k of SC sales - one said to me that his frustration with the Lansdowns combined and a likely hike in SC prices will deter him from renewing.

The person I meet at the ground is done, confirmed it yesterday and buggered off literally five minutes after half time he was that pissed off with it!! I do fear, for the first time in years where we have had had empty threats, that people will follow through with their threats not to renew on this occasion.

[LondonBristolian]

23 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

16 from 9 would mean we finished in the best form we've shown all season. Add yesterday's win and it's 19 from the final 10 - whisper it but that is top 6 form! I don't see how we can reasonably expect us to do that given recent performances. 

I think you're asking for an overnight revolution that has almost no chance of happening.

I felt someone would come back and say that. My counter to it would be that I also think the run-in - once we get past the next two - is the most favourable run of fixtures we have had all season.

My calculation is as follows:

West Brom (A) - Not impossible to get a result but I'd not expect one. 0

Leicester (H) - ditto. Except far less likely to get a result. 0

Plymouth (A) - Currently 22nd in the form table. We should be targeting a win. 3

Sunderland (A) - 23rd in form table but admittedly better than the form table exists so put this down as a draw. 1

Blackburn (H) - home game against a team just outside the relegation zone who are, again, below us in the form table. We should target a win. 3

Huddersfield (H) - home game against a team in the bottom 3. We should target a win 3

Norwich (A) - Not impossible but a tough game. I don't necessarily expect any points. 0

Rotherham (H) - bottom of the table and the form table. We should target a win. 3

Stoke (A) - struggled all season. Reasonable to target a win. 3

 

That gets us to 16. I agree it is a better return than the rest of the season but I struggle to see why we shouldn't be setting a target of winning the 3 home games against Blackburn, Huddersfield & Rotherham and getting 7 from 9 at Sunderland, Huddersfield and Stoke. 

Edited March 11 by LondonBristolian

[Silvio Dante]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fwiw we got from the following fixtures last year..

WBA (A)- W

Sunderland (A)- D

Blackburn (H)- D

Huddersfield (H)- W

Norwich (A)- L

Rotherham (H)- W

Stoke (A)- W

The unknowns are Leicester (H), Plymouth (A). Last year we gained 1 win and 2 losses at home v the 3 who went up and 2 draws and 1oss away to the 3 who went down.

Under NP we had +3 or +5 from the equivalent games, Fleming made sure it was +5.

I’m not sure this really tells us anything though - just as we’re a different proposition (for better or worse) under Manning 5 of those teams (I think) have changed managers since last season. I’m not sure comparing (for example) a solid Sunderland under Mowbray is akin to that challenge now.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

I’m not sure this really tells us anything though - just as we’re a different proposition (for better or worse) under Manning 5 of those teams (I think) have changed managers since last season. I’m not sure comparing (for example) a solid Sunderland under Mowbray is akin to that challenge now.

Agree to an extent, we aren't the only ones to change but it tracks where we are heading. If we finish on <59 pts come May it'll have more relevance.

All of them have actually  certainly from the Home/Away split.

Edited March 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[lenred]

12 minutes ago, SecretSam said:

Bizarrely, if I move to Bristol I might be tempted to get a ST for the first time 

Nothing bizarre about that at all.  It’s your team that you support, whatever the current management team like to think about it being ‘theirs’!

[TDarwall]

15 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

Granted - however as @GrahamC often correctly points out our injury level is no worse than the average club so that doesn’t really get him out of jail either!

This is true, however, it's also true that due to our lack of sqaud depth, if we get a "normal" amount of injuries, it impacts us more. For our model to work, we need fewer injuries than the norm, however it's a vicious circle as being short on no's means players probably get overplayed & are more likely to get injd.

Had Dickie picked up a 3 month hammy, we'd have been well & truly screwed.