Fair Targets for Manning

[Dr Balls]

16 minutes ago, RedRock said:

We seem a Club in turmoil yet again.

Frankly, I don’t trust the Board, Technical Director or Coaches to make the right calls. We’ve reverted to go for the easy life. Jon has appointed a non-threatening technical director and coaching staff, rather than people who challenge and push boundaries. We’ve adopted the lame ‘jam tomorrow’, rather than the more difficult to achieve and easier to be judged on ‘here and now’ transfer strategy. Reverted back to passive play on the pitch, lacking adventure, excitement and risk. It’s all very much back to the ‘comfy club’ of days of past. 

So, given the ‘don’t rock the boat’ approach, I suspect  Manning will be here for 2024/25, bar a disastrous end of season set of results - which, admittedly, isn’t beyond him. 

Question for me is will SL let us drift back to mediocracy, or will he intervene and appoint a CEO overseer with football expertise that will crack rather whip. That could be the most important signing of the next few months, together with a medical expert and chief scout. Time for the Club’s ‘continuous improvement’ mantra to become action rather than just words methinks. 

Discussed on Saturday that our biggest loss recently in terms of personnel wasn’t even necessarily Nige, it was Richard Gould. The lack of a proper CEO is really what’s killing us, because basically all the footballing decisions at the club are now between just Jon Lansdown and Brian Tinnion. If that doesn’t worry you about the state of the club, nothing will!

[Numero Uno]

1 minute ago, Dr Balls said:

Discussed on Saturday that our biggest loss recently in terms of personnel wasn’t even necessarily Nige, it was Richard Gould. The lack of a proper CEO is really what’s killing us, because basically all the footballing decisions at the club are now between just Jon Lansdown and Brian Tinnion. If that doesn’t worry you about the state of the club, nothing will!

Don't forget "Gav" the clown who said we were looking to get promoted this season............................

[ashton_fan]

35 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

You do realise that our last 3 wins in 13 games have all been when we have played teams that have had 70% possession? If you can find 4 more teams out of the ones we are due to play in the next 9 games that will have that much possession good luck!

The only home game that I am in anyway confident about is Rotherham because by then they will be relegated anyway. Leicester will need a win to maintain their push to win the league, so will come on strong, while Blackburn and Huddersfield will both be scrapping for a points. I would be amazed if we get more than 10 points from the remaining 9 games based on recent form.

I'd have thought the next two against WBA and Leicester, wouldn't we expect them to attack us and have most of the ball?

[Dr Balls]

3 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Don't forget "Gav" the clown who said we were looking to get promoted this season............................

That really indicates why he should be kept as far away as possible from the footballing side of things!

Yes we were looking to get promotion this season from a financial and selling Bristol Sport point of view, but in no way was that related to anything that was happening on the pitch. A more realistic expectation would have been keeping the Women’s team in the WSL, but a lack of ambition and investment scuppered that as well. But then why treat the women any different to the men?!

[Street red]

48 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Whilst it’s only a small number of fans but those I’ve spoken with are still very pissed of with Nige’s sacking and several are saying that they won’t renew their SCs as a protest so if true to their word I’d be surprised if City reach 13k of SC sales - one said to me that his frustration with the Lansdowns combined and a likely hike in SC prices will deter him from renewing.

Mine is exactly that and also TV deal comes into play.

[Dr Balls]

3 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

I'd have thought the next two against WBA and Leicester, wouldn't we expect them to attack us and have most of the ball?

Not 70% of possession. Both teams look to hit quickly on the break so will be quite happy for us to keep the ball as they know we won’t threaten to score a goal against them. We have had the odd good result at the Hawthorns over the years, plus presumably Weimann won’t be able to play against us, so we might scrap a draw against West Brom but I can’t see us getting anything against Leicester as they will score goals, the same as Ipswich.

[Robbored]

21 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

The person I meet at the ground is done, confirmed it yesterday and buggered off literally five minutes after half time he was that pissed off with it!! I do fear, for the first time in years where we have had had empty threats, that people will follow through with their threats not to renew on this occasion.

Fans make threats not to renew pretty much every season but somehow it feels different this time. The frustration with Nige’s sacking still resonates amongst many.

it makes the summer wheeling and dealing even more crucial than usual - if Manning has a war chest and signs some marquee players (one would do) that could persuade some to renew.

Who knows?……….

[Dr Balls]

2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Fans make threats not to renew pretty much every season but somehow it feels different this time. The frustration with Nige’s sacking still resonates amongst many.

it makes the summer wheeling and dealing even more crucial than usual - if Manning has a war chest and signs some marquee players (one would do) that could persuade some to renew.

Who knows?……….

The most incredible part to me was how empty S82 was. Never seen it like that before with huge gaps. Also explains why the volume was down so much. Plus it’s not as if this was a late change like the Cardiff game. We knew for months that this was a Sunday lunchtime kick off

I know that we have such a supine set of fans that even throwing tennis balls on to the pitch would be beyond us as a protest, but could those who are going to renew their season tickets just leave it as late as possible to do so, just to make a point that we aren’t happy with the way the club is being run? If after 3 weeks, no one had signed up that would give the owners a scare and hopefully get the message across.

[Targeted by Mods]

Judging by some of the forum "veterans" anything less than 138 points next year is failure

[Targeted by Mods]

7 minutes ago, Travis said:

Judging by some of the forum "veterans" anything less than 138 points next year is failure

One Caveat some only want to be entertained they are not bothered about results

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, Travis said:

One Caveat some only want to be entertained they are not bothered about results

Multiple Home games have been fairly comatose style wise in this era, results have been bottom 3rd in terms of PPG under Manning. Rather getting the worst of all worlds aren't we, if this is our medium future even more so.

[Targeted by Mods]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Multiple Home games have been fairly comatose style wise in this era, results have been bottom 3rd in terms of PPG under Manning. Rather getting the worst of all worlds aren't we, if this is our medium future even more so.

How long would a replacement get 22 League Games as well?

[LondonBristolian]

24 minutes ago, Travis said:

Judging by some of the forum "veterans" anything less than 138 points next year is failure

You seem to have ignored literally everything anyone has actually posted and then invented a load of things nobody has actually said. I'm not entirely sure that rebutting arguments nobody is actually making is as constructive a contribution as you think it is. 

Edited March 11 by LondonBristolian

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Travis said:

How long would a replacement get 22 League Games as well?

If it doesn't work, it doesn't work.

I like the fact we aren't some crazy sacking club but Moore at Huddersfield patently wasn't working, Rooney and Edwards too.

It is sleep-inducing at times, the win ratio is mediocre at best..style, XG, Pts on the board and win rates are all down.

[ProfitInMyPocket]

Actually beat a team when we have more possession than them. 

Still hasn't happened yet I don't think.

[ExiledAjax]

51 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I felt someone would come back and say that. My counter to it would be that I also think the run-in - once we get past the next two - is the most favourable run of fixtures we have had all season.

My calculation is as follows:

West Brom (A) - Not impossible to get a result but I'd not expect one. 0

Leicester (H) - ditto. Except far less likely to get a result. 0

Plymouth (A) - Currently 22nd in the form table. We should be targeting a win. 3

Sunderland (A) - 23rd in form table but admittedly better than the form table exists so put this down as a draw. 1

Blackburn (H) - home game against a team just outside the relegation zone who are, again, below us in the form table. We should target a win. 3

Huddersfield (H) - home game against a team in the bottom 3. We should target a win 3

Norwich (A) - Not impossible but a tough game. I don't necessarily expect any points. 0

Rotherham (H) - bottom of the table and the form table. We should target a win. 3

Stoke (A) - struggled all season. Reasonable to target a win. 3

 

That gets us to 16. I agree it is a better return than the rest of the season but I struggle to see why we shouldn't be setting a target of winning the 3 home games against Blackburn, Huddersfield & Rotherham and getting 7 from 9 at Sunderland, Huddersfield and Stoke. 

I guess I'd just say that if this season has taught us anything it's that predicting us to lose to any team above us, beat any team below us, and draw with those sort of near us doesn't tend to bear out.

Just as a couple of examples I'd not be surprised at all to see us get points v Leicester (I know one of their physios and he says the camp is pretty unhappy and he has major concerns about them even getting promotion). Stoke are also putting up better numbers than their position in the table suggests. I think that final game will be a dead rubber between two safe teams. Could be anything but I'd not confidently give us 3 points right now.

Hence I go to ppg extrapolations rather than individual game predictions. And that method suggests that 10-12 points is a reasonable expectation from the final 9 games. That doesn't mean we should be happy with 10 from the last 9, but it's what this squad, under this coaching team, in this years division, is capable of.

It's a personal opinion but I think a "fair target" as OP asked for should be realistically achievable. I could agree that 16 from 9 works as a good stretch target, one that we can aim for, but we don't penalise Manning for failing to hit it.

[Sheltons Army]

Who let the out

 

[bearded_red]

Win a game while having the majority of possession, something he hasn’t managed yet.

[Sir Geoff]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

I might have been a bit harsh here and I'll give some alternative KPIs.

1. Over the final 9 games I want to see:

1.a. an average of 13 shots per game (current average is 11.5);

1.b. an average of 4 shots on target per game (current average is 3.6); and

1.c. average xG from open play of 0.9 per game (current average is 0.71)

2. Name a full subs bench in every game. The season's done in terms of competition, so let's blood some youngsters.

3. Let's target 3 clean sheets in the final 9 games. 

As I say, this season is gone, done, all but finished, so let's focus on improving and finishing on an upward trajectory. That will lay good groundwork for whoever is in charge in 2024/25.

Xg is fine to quote but what isn't represented is Quality of shot.

[ashton_fan]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Multiple Home games have been fairly comatose style wise in this era, results have been bottom 3rd in terms of PPG under Manning. Rather getting the worst of all worlds aren't we, if this is our medium future even more so.

Home games were pretty dire before Manning arrived, the only decent home win under Pearson was against Plymouth. The only other home game we won was against Coventry and that was extremely fortunate. We lost to Birmingham, Norwich, Stoke and Ipswich. Under Manning we've won 5 home games in the league, so I can't see how things have got much worse?

[ExiledAjax]

11 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Xg is fine to quote but what isn't represented is Quality of shot.

Agreed, xG measures quality of chance not shot. But our issue is creating chances rather than finishing them.

As a whole we've scored more than our xG suggests, and individually most of our players are within a tolerable range of their xG. Edit: this is true under both managers this season.

Suggests if we create more, we'll finish them, and so score more.

Edited March 11 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

Home games were pretty dire before Manning arrived, the only decent home win under Pearson was against Plymouth. The only other home game we won was against Coventry and that was extremely fortunate. We lost to Birmingham, Norwich, Stoke and Ipswich. Under Manning we've won 5 home games in the league, so I can't see how things have got much worse?

Performance was fine vs Stoke in many respects, not quite sure how we lost.

West Brom we possibly should've won but a well earned point. First half we were great however.

Ipswich was a spirited loss as our injured were mounting. Width of the post away perhaps and we had the momentum too that last half-hour.

Why are we counting Cup games with multiple changes per side. We lost to Norwich under Manning too albeit in one that mattered more and that was sleep-inducing.

Birmingham yeah, for sure. Coventry we rode our luck ie the sudden switch to a back 3 didn't help, Preston was a strange game.

It isn't all about the Home games though albeit that is what most fans see.

Edited March 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[Targeted by Mods]

17 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

You seem to have ignored literally everything anyone has actually posted and then invented a load of things nobody has actually said. I'm not entirely sure that rebutting arguments nobody is actually making is as constructive a contribution as you think it is. 

I think not.

[Lakeside Red]

I want to see the front foot football we were promised in last 9 games

[LondonBristolian]

13 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I guess I'd just say that if this season has taught us anything it's that predicting us to lose to any team above us, beat any team below us, and draw with those sort of near us doesn't tend to bear out.

Just as a couple of examples I'd not be surprised at all to see us get points v Leicester (I know one of their physios and he says the camp is pretty unhappy and he has major concerns about them even getting promotion). Stoke are also putting up better numbers than their position in the table suggests. I think that final game will be a dead rubber between two safe teams. Could be anything but I'd not confidently give us 3 points right now.

Hence I go to ppg extrapolations rather than individual game predictions. And that method suggests that 10-12 points is a reasonable expectation from the final 9 games. That doesn't mean we should be happy with 10 from the last 9, but it's what this squad, under this coaching team, in this years division, is capable of.

It's a personal opinion but I think a "fair target" as OP asked for should be realistically achievable. I could agree that 16 from 9 works as a good stretch target, one that we can aim for, but we don't penalise Manning for failing to hit it.

I totally get the results won't bear out in reality and it is very possible we'll get points where we don't expect and not get points where we do. That was why I originally just said 16 from 9 rather than putting my workings.

I think where we disagree is that I don't want to go off what Manning is actually doing but what I want us to achieve. Frankly what Manning is doing isn't good enough, which is why I'm not confident in him for next season.

Ultimately Manning will, likely as not,  be in charge next season. And I'll support the team, whoever the manager is. But, if I'm honest, 10 points or even 12 - whilst I agree a reasonable target on the face of it - would not assuage the significant doubts I have as to whether Manning is the right person to take us forward. 16 points is a big ask but not an impossible one and, after a run of generally poor form since Christmas, it would take that sort of return for me to genuinely go into next season with confidence. 

[Targeted by Mods]

16 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

Who let the out

 

Not sure but yours are not all barking Shelton is a good name for a dog Shelton the Sheltie

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I totally get the results won't bear out in reality and it is very possible we'll get points where we don't expect and not get points where we do. That was why I originally just said 16 from 9 rather than putting my workings.

I think where we disagree is that I don't want to go off what Manning is actually doing but what I want us to achieve. Frankly what Manning is doing isn't good enough, which is why I'm not confident in him for next season.

Ultimately Manning will, likely as not,  be in charge next season. And I'll support the team, whoever the manager is. But, if I'm honest, 10 points or even 12 - whilst I agree a reasonable target on the face of it - would not assuage the significant doubts I have as to whether Manning is the right person to take us forward. 16 points is a big ask but not an impossible one and, after a run of generally poor form since Christmas, it would take that sort of return for me to genuinely go into next season with confidence. 

As eloquent as your posts always are. I'm almost persuaded to be honest.

I'm still not sure that we should expect future over-performance on the basis that it is needed to counter previous under-performance, but I can see that setting a target above the raw extrapolated expectation is reasonable.

As to the bit I've put in bold. We'll see about that. I'm not feeling it tbh.

[Sheltons Army]

7 minutes ago, Travis said:

Not sure but yours are not all barking Shelton is a good name for a dog Shelton the Sheltie

Amazing that every furious troll and dimwit that appears on here all have joined rejoined in the last few weeks

 

Its like playing with new toys 

[formerly known as ivan]

1 hour ago, INCRED said:

The only thing missing is consistency of performance 

This squad can produce moments of excellence countered by moments of mediocrity 

On their day they can beat anyone as well as lose to anyone 

We know we are missing a goal scoring No9 as what we have at the club currently isn’t good enough

We also lack that creativity to unlock low block defences which needs addressing 

Has BT and the board got a solution in place for the summer as they appear to be saying that is the priority?

Is Manning & his assistant able to coach us into a style and winning team that will challenge next season - who knows but throwing him under the bus so soon is not going to happen with this board & owner until Manning has had a pre season with new players and next season to put into practice what they saw in him 

If he fails miserably and we are fighting for our lives near the lower end of the league then someone will open the trap door and wave LM goodbye 

 

Consistency is an issue, you are right about that. However, the issue under Manning is they are consistently crap! Exceptions being Watford away, Southampton home and a couple of cup games.

In answer to the original question, fair targets for Manning, this is quite simple to me… play the type of football we were told to expect, whilst picking up points along the way. Show progression is being made, not regression. 

No one realistically expected promotion. That only came from the board. However, they will mostly be judge on this now, not necessarily Manning. If Manning is not delivering on this front, it is down to the board to act on this.

[Targeted by Mods]

Just now, Sheltons Army said:

Amazing that every furious troll and dimwit that appears on here all have joined rejoined in the last few weeks

 

Its like playing with 

Furious? you are the Dog foaming at the mouth now play with the squeeker.