I’m not sure “shrewd” is a judgement you can make this early!
But absolutely agree with you about the importance of those unpredictables: a season without (major) injuries, a settled side, confidence (which is what usually drives those good runs). Absolutely critical. And will make the difference. Or not!
And the other thing that contributes is that little 1% of luck: getting into the habit of scoring last 5 minutes, not conceding. Getting the 50/50 penalty shouts. The ball that goes in off the inside of the post, not out. I know people say they even themselves out but I’m not always sure they do 100%. And that few % can make a lot of difference. .