Time Since Last Bristol City Penalty

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, italian dave said:

Even in that Coventry game, when we did get one, we had another even more obvious one denied when O’Dowda was upended. 

I cannot recall if that was a penalty or a clear foul and red card, last man perhaps.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Wasn't there a possible penalty v Sheffield United in November too? Or was that an unawarded free kick right on the edge?

[italian dave]

26 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I cannot recall if that was a penalty or.a clear foul and red card, last man perhaps.

I can’t recall the details; it was the day of our last penalty, so a lifetime ago!

But I do remember it as an O’Dowda run into the box and a blatant trip. Not sure about last man/red card. 

[Davefevs]

Just now, italian dave said:

I can’t recall the details; it was the day of our last penalty, so a lifetime ago!

But I do remember it as an O’Dowda run into the box and a blatant trip. Not sure about last man/red card. 

Very early on, keeper went over the top studs up, caught O’Dowda.  Right on the edge of the box, red card or penalty.

[Big C]

For those of you that can't recall, here is a picture of our last penalty kick

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Wasn't there a possible penalty v Sheffield United in November too? Or was that an unawarded free kick right on the edge?

Don’t recall that but Norburn should certainly have got a straight red for an awful foul on Joe Williams that wasn’t even penalised as a free kick.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Very early on, keeper went over the top studs up, caught O’Dowda.  Right on the edge of the box, red card or penalty.

He does get a slight touch on the ball, but how the Ref sees that as a fair challenge I don't know.

32 seconds in.

 

 

[kit]

Definite pen in the sheffield united game baldock smashed into our player, forgotten who maybe wells, whilst in contol of the ball in the box.

Clumsy but for me a pretty obvious pen.

Tha evening post article whilst highlighting some quite obvious stonewall ones definitely is missing some pretty obvious ones that you would expect to be given far more often than not.

[Mr Popodopolous]

51 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Don’t recall that but Norburn should certainly have got a straight red for an awful foul on Joe Williams that wasn’t even penalised as a free kick.

I remember that one too, the non called Norwood red. Think @Olé might have referred to it on Twitter at the time penalty wise?

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

51 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

He does get a slight touch on the ball, but how the Ref sees that as a fair challenge I don't know.

32 seconds in.

 

 

Thanks. Penalty I dunno. Should have been penalised with foul and potentially card however yes.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Always Believesham]

We would have been awarded a penalty away at Norwich had we not scored - this isn't on the Posts round up but the referee was ready to blow for a penalty but played advantage.

FWIW I very much think it's a conspiracy  in the time it's taken us to get our last 8 penalties, we recieved 39 in the same period prior to that. It's not just the league, we've been awarded 1 in the League Cup, 1 in the FA Cup in the last 10 years.

The turning point appeared to be as the wheels fell off in the League Cup Semi-Final season, shortly after a weird rant from Keith Andrews when we beat Sheffield United on Sky and he basically said we were lucky and that decisions played a huge part in our win. There you have it, Keith Andrews is to blame.

[Son of Fred]

9 hours ago, Big C said:

For those of you that can't recall, here is a picture of our last penalty kick

a

And that's a decent penalty kick from a bloke with only one leg.

They bred em' tough in those days!

Edited January 12, 2023 by Son of Fred

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

On 10/01/2023 at 17:30, spudski said:

It's become a catch 22 imo...the referees will be fully aware of it.

What referee now wants to be the first to give a penalty, then be accused by the opposition that they only gave it because of the ' record'.

Likewise they will know any decent penalty shout NOT given will be analysed more than usual after the game and not just by City, this could swing a split second decision in our favour.
 

I think the club know exactly what they’re doing highlighting this situation. My only issue is that it heaps a sizeable amount of pressure on whoever steps up for the kick when we inevitably get awarded a pen in the next few games.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see one skyed over the bar on Saturday.
 

[ExiledAjax]

11 hours ago, NcnsBcfc said:

Fait play to the Bristol live team pulling this together.

City have had 30 penalty claims turned down since Martin's spot-kick at Coventry

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/bristol-city-penalty-claims-martin-8018191#ICID=Android_BristolPostApp_AppShare

Interesting, and I admire the effort needed to trawl through more than a year's worth of games and highlights. Below I've extracted the ones that the Bristol Post (who may not be an absolute authority on the subject) think are at least worthy of a "strong claim" or similar. They reckon that is 12 of the 30. So should anyone fancy putting together a compilation video - these are the 12 incidents you need to focus on.

It's about 50 games now isn't it? 12 penalties in 50 matches would be pretty par for the course IIRC. Assuming a standard 78% conversion rate we could argue that we should have scored 10 extra goals across the last 50 games. That's not insignificant at all.

2021/22

Stoke City (H)

City appeal after a Callum O'Dowda cross appears to strike defender Leo Ostigard's hand en route to the middle of the box.

Verdict: City had a strong case

QPR (H)

A decision that, in-part, led to Andy King's frustration and his red card as Alex Scott was bundled over while dribbling at speed into the penalty area yet no foul was given. Cam Pring was then later penalised for a similar challenge handing Charlie Austin a spot-kick.

Verdict: Hard to see how it wasn't given

Millwall (H)

Matty James runs onto a pass forward by Weimann but is beaten to the ball by Shaun Hutchinson who uses part of his arm to divert it out for a corner.

Verdict: City had a strong case

Preston North End (A)

Semenyo is brought down by Van Den Berg a second time as he takes the defender on and the two go shoulder to shoulder in the penalty area with the City forward penalised after he hits the deck.

Verdict: Definite case for a penalty

Swansea City (A)

Semenyo goes down after a heavy challenge inside the area and stays down for a good few minutes after the incident.

Verdict: Was definitely something in it

Bournemouth (A)

Martin is brought down in the penalty area [see above from 3:40] following a clumsy challenge by Lloyd Kelly but to the surprise of everyone nothing is given.

Verdict: Looked a penalty

2022/23

Hull City (A)

Rob Atkinson is clearly manhandled from a corner, immediately after Hull's initial penalty, and falls to the ground. Referee waves away protests leaving Nigel Pearson and the coaching staff frustrated on the touchline.

Verdict: A strong case

Wigan (A)

Tommy Conway gets goal side of his man and is bundled to the ground [see below from 1:14] following a clumsy tackle by Jason Kerr. Appeals from the City players including the striker laying on the floor.

Verdict: Penalty

Norwich (A)

Mark Sykes is barged by Grant Hanley in the back as he charges towards the byline looking to fire in a cross. The incident happened moments after the hosts opened the scoring.

Verdict: Strong claim

Watford (H)

Wells was involved in two penalty claims. The first was a high boot to the head [see below from 1:05] when battling for the ball alongside Dan Gosling. Although he doesn't catch the striker, there was certainly an element of dangerous play.

Verdict: Strong claim

Swansea (H)

Three penalty shouts all waved away from the keeper. Semenyo is bundled to the ground attempting to shield the ball following a slide tackle from Ben Cabango. The referee claims the defender won the ball but replays showed it was a clumsy challenge.

Verdict: Penalty

The second saw Rob Atkinson taken down from behind with the ball bobbling loose in the area. Looked obvious from first viewing and opinion hasn't changed after watching the replay.

Verdict: Penalty

[GrahamC]

Still reckon 2 others are missing;

At Fulham in the 6-2 game Dasilva was trodden on in the box when the score was 2-2 & Scott v Forest (the game won after Lyle Taylor blatantly used his hand to control the ball & score an injury time winner) was also brought down when we were 1-0 up.

Edited January 12, 2023 by GrahamC

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, GrahamC said:

Still reckon 2 others are missing;

At Fulham in the 6-2 game Dasilva was tripped in the box when the score was 2-2 & Scott v Forest (the game won after Lyle Taylor blatantly used his hand to control the ball & score an injury time winner) was also brought down when we were 1-0 up.

Scott v Forest of course! I was right down the front of the south stand for that one. It happened not ten yards away from me. Stonewall.

[kit]

The forest one on scott whilst another shocker not given was before our last penalty at Coventry. 

It was in the middle of the preceding ridiculous run of no penalties being given.

[GrahamC]

1 minute ago, kit said:

The forest one on scott whilst another shocker not given was before our last penalty at Coventry. 

It was in the middle of the preceding ridiculous run of no penalties being given.

Thanks.

[1960maaan]

What was the one in the corner of the box, Atyeo/Dolman. I think it was Scott who was body checked and flattened. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Interesting, and I admire the effort needed to trawl through more than a year's worth of games and highlights. Below I've extracted the ones that the Bristol Post (who may not be an absolute authority on the subject) think are at least worthy of a "strong claim" or similar. They reckon that is 12 of the 30. So should anyone fancy putting together a compilation video - these are the 12 incidents you need to focus on.

It's about 50 games now isn't it? 12 penalties in 50 matches would be pretty par for the course IIRC. Assuming a standard 78% conversion rate we could argue that we should have scored 10 extra goals across the last 50 games. That's not insignificant at all.

2021/22

Stoke City (H)

City appeal after a Callum O'Dowda cross appears to strike defender Leo Ostigard's hand en route to the middle of the box.

Verdict: City had a strong case

QPR (H)

A decision that, in-part, led to Andy King's frustration and his red card as Alex Scott was bundled over while dribbling at speed into the penalty area yet no foul was given. Cam Pring was then later penalised for a similar challenge handing Charlie Austin a spot-kick.

Verdict: Hard to see how it wasn't given

Millwall (H)

Matty James runs onto a pass forward by Weimann but is beaten to the ball by Shaun Hutchinson who uses part of his arm to divert it out for a corner.

Verdict: City had a strong case

Preston North End (A)

Semenyo is brought down by Van Den Berg a second time as he takes the defender on and the two go shoulder to shoulder in the penalty area with the City forward penalised after he hits the deck.

Verdict: Definite case for a penalty

Swansea City (A)

Semenyo goes down after a heavy challenge inside the area and stays down for a good few minutes after the incident.

Verdict: Was definitely something in it

Bournemouth (A)

Martin is brought down in the penalty area [see above from 3:40] following a clumsy challenge by Lloyd Kelly but to the surprise of everyone nothing is given.

Verdict: Looked a penalty

2022/23

Hull City (A)

Rob Atkinson is clearly manhandled from a corner, immediately after Hull's initial penalty, and falls to the ground. Referee waves away protests leaving Nigel Pearson and the coaching staff frustrated on the touchline.

Verdict: A strong case

Wigan (A)

Tommy Conway gets goal side of his man and is bundled to the ground [see below from 1:14] following a clumsy tackle by Jason Kerr. Appeals from the City players including the striker laying on the floor.

Verdict: Penalty

Norwich (A)

Mark Sykes is barged by Grant Hanley in the back as he charges towards the byline looking to fire in a cross. The incident happened moments after the hosts opened the scoring.

Verdict: Strong claim

Watford (H)

Wells was involved in two penalty claims. The first was a high boot to the head [see below from 1:05] when battling for the ball alongside Dan Gosling. Although he doesn't catch the striker, there was certainly an element of dangerous play.

Verdict: Strong claim

Swansea (H)

Three penalty shouts all waved away from the keeper. Semenyo is bundled to the ground attempting to shield the ball following a slide tackle from Ben Cabango. The referee claims the defender won the ball but replays showed it was a clumsy challenge.

Verdict: Penalty

The second saw Rob Atkinson taken down from behind with the ball bobbling loose in the area. Looked obvious from first viewing and opinion hasn't changed after watching the replay.

Verdict: Penalty

Remember the Championship average is lower than other divisions for penalties awarded plus if we are taking some kind of average our attacking output will surely be below that average so I'd say more likely between 6 and 8. Unsure which sides get 12 penalties in 50 games tbh.

[Olé]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Remember the Championship average is lower than other divisions for penalties awarded plus if we are taking some kind of average our attacking output will surely be below that average so I'd say more likely between 6 and 8. Unsure which sides get 12 penalties in 50 games tbh.

Based on some data I collated and published overnight (I suffer from insomnia) In the most recent 5 championship seasons (inclusive of this one), for teams with a minimum of 50 games played (i.e. participated in more than one season at this level) the average number of Championship games per penalty awarded is 8.9 and the average number of penalties awarded per team per season is 5.2. 

City are currently at 100 games per penalty awarded (1023.6% over average)

City have had 1 penalty awarded in well over 2 seasons (90.4% below average)

City have had 8 penalties awarded in 4.57 seasons (66.1% below average)

City have the lowest penalties awarded of all 30 teams to have played more than one of the last 5 Championship seasons. As in teams who've played just 1 or 1.5 or 2 seasons in the Championship have still managed to be awarded more penalties than City, who have played in all 5 seasons at this level.

And Aston ******* Villa have the same number of penalties as us in the last 5 Championship seasons and they've only played in one of them.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Olé

[SPAZZA]

On 10/01/2023 at 17:06, italian dave said:

It’s not a great article, is it? No context: how unusual is 428 days, what’s the average, how long we’d waited even before the last one, just how extreme an anomoly we are. 

It just comes across a bit like another manager having a moan after another poor result on a lengthy bad run. 

My best friend mentioned this on his FB which made me look here for a thread.

It is a big anomaly, in 2017-18 we (Leeds) went 418 days without a penalty in any competition, it’s a joke.

Mind you, playing Cardiff in the cup this week reminded us of what life was like before VAR and it was ******* glorious, score a goal, celebrate whilst looking over at the lino just to make sure the flag isn’t up, go wild / limbs.

I would take referee errors (ie not getting pens) every single day over the soulless, clinical shit stain that is the Premier League.

I enjoyed finishing mid table in the Championship more than the last two seasons of the PL, the journey is far more fun than the destination.

Edited January 12, 2023 by SPAZZA

[Mr Popodopolous]

Reading have had 6 this season in 26 games which is mad when you consider their attacking intent etc is probably not so different to us.

Great work btw, just been browsing the Twitter stuff- penalty v Sheffield United, am I dreaming or was there a good shout there too?

Edited January 12, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Reading have had 6 this season in 26 games which is mad when you consider their attacking intent etc is probably not so different to us.

Great work btw, just been browsing the Twitter stuff- penalty v Sheffield United, am I dreaming or was there a good shout there too?

The answer is: Tom Ince

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, Olé said:

And Aston ******* Villa have the same number of penalties as us in the last 5 Championship seasons and they've only played in one of them.

This, even though depressing, is my favourite stat ever. 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Olé said:

And Aston ******* Villa have the same number of penalties as us in the last 5 Championship seasons and they've only played in one of them.

Their attacking output will have exceeded the average and that nice Mr. Grealish wasn't very steady on his feet let's say.  I seem to recall one of them ie their one vs us was very ropey. Unsure who won it but April 2019 at their place.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[BCFC11]

30 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Their attacking output will have exceeded the average and that nice Mr. Grealish wasn't very steady on his feet let's say.  I seem to recall one of them ie their one vs us was very ropey. Unsure who won it but April 2019 at their place.

Conor Hourihane. Diving to$$er. The Ref (Simon Hooper) had an absolute shocker defo took a bribe for this game.

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, BCFC11 said:

Conor Hourihane. Diving to$$er. The Ref (Simon Hooper) had an absolute shocker defo took a bribe for this game.

That's the one. Weimann had a goal very questionably at best disallowed for offside at 0-0 too.

[italian dave]

29 minutes ago, BCFC11 said:

Conor Hourihane. Diving to$$er. The Ref (Simon Hooper) had an absolute shocker defo took a bribe for this game

Yep, remember that one well. Even with the very low bar we’re accustomed to, that really was up there with the very very worst. And seemed like every mistake was a key decision. 

[italian dave]

2 hours ago, SPAZZA said:

My best friend mentioned this on his FB which made me look here for a thread.

It is a big anomaly, in 2017-18 we (Leeds) went 418 days without a penalty in any competition, it’s a joke.

Mind you, playing Cardiff in the cup this week reminded us of what life was like before VAR and it was ******* glorious, score a goal, celebrate whilst looking over at the lino just to make sure the flag isn’t up, go wild / limbs.

I would take referee errors (ie not getting pens) every single day over the soulless, clinical shit stain that is the Premier League.

I enjoyed finishing mid table in the Championship more than the last two seasons of the PL, the journey is far more fun than the destination.

Thing is, our current 428 days (or whatever it is now) is only part of the story. It’s been going on for years: we’d waited as long again for the one before the last one.

There was an article from some European data analysis site this time last year. That looked at penalties among clubs in 31 European leagues since 18/19 and we were head and shoulders least likely to get one then - and we haven’t had a single one since! 

It started the season after your 17-18 one, but you didn’t seem to be doing a whole lot better even then! 

We haven’t had a penalty in front of a crowd at Ashton Gate since 2019! 

I get what you mean about VAR: never been at a game where it’s been operating, but I’ve often thought it must leave every celebration with a bit of doubt there for a while. And in the PL it seems to me that there’s as many controversies about VAR as there used to be about refereeing decisions anyway.

It worked better in the World Cup I thought.

Also, we had a PL ref on Sunday: don’t know what your take is, but it felt like maybe they have now developed an inbuilt tendency to give the benefit of doubt against making a decision - because they know VAR will give them a second chance. But, of course, at City they don’t get that second chance.