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Busting some myths….


Harry

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33 minutes ago, BigTone said:

Who was referring to you ? You flatter yourself.

Well, ummm, the fact you put a ‘laugh’ emoji on 2 posts - one written by me and one directly referring to me. Kinda gives away that your are indeed referring to me.  
Given you have me on ignore, that’s quite something. 
So, what’s so funny Big Man? 

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7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well, ummm, the fact you put a ‘laugh’ emoji on 2 posts - one written by me and one directly referring to me. Kinda gives away that your are indeed referring to me.  
Given you have me on ignore, that’s quite something. 
So, what’s so funny Big Man? 

You really have a high opinion of yourself and your standing sonny. Just run along. You seem very obsessed.

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12 minutes ago, BigTone said:

You really have a high opinion of yourself and your standing sonny. Just run along. You seem very obsessed.

Well, you’re the one who told me you had me on ignore, and then I discover that you are putting laugh emojis on my posts so clearly don’t have me on ignore. 
So, a laugh emoji on a post can be interpreted multiple ways. Pray tell, what was funny? 
Or are you just gonna ignore it and hope it goes away, like you did a couple of months ago when you got caught being racist? 

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I think whoever we have, people will pine for something different. It’s the nature of football, especially at this level. The re-writing of LJ’s tenure is especially weird atm. The constant losing streaks and winning streaks, the need for 3 players at every position, so many people couldn’t wait for it to be over, it’s fickleness at its finest. Even the posts today replying to the tweet highlights from us beating Millwall in 2019 as ‘the good old days’, well gues what we were pathetic in that game, so it wasn’t the good times at all ?

I wouldn’t want it back by any stretch. Our stock has never been higher at the time he went, and the powers that be royally royally shat the bed. 
 

There’s a reason LJ is in a worse place than he was when here, in the nicest possible way. And the way it’s going, he’s probably not far off his second sacking in the 2.5 years since he was sacked here. 
 

Said before It’s the Holden ‘era’ and everything that encompassed within the club that has led us to this current shitstate imo. 

Edited by petehinton
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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I dunno, £30m in wages using the Holdings, amortisation, depreciation- cost of staging events doesn't come that cheap.. obviously Interest will contribute to the losses but would they be included in the Running costs?

Academy, Community and Women's Football will all be included even if not itemised separately.

For context, Derby in 2018 had a £29m income- talking the consolidator- but total running costs of £75m maybe. That is wages, amortisation, academy- the lot. That cost of staging events was reduced during the 2020-21 season especially but is back towards  normal levels now. Unsure it is that far outside.

Mr P, I’m not disputing the wage cost, nor what’s included or not…I’m just trying to find a method of fair comparison of the football side of our club across the Championship.

Most championship clubs don’t have a group of staff doing stuff for a Rugby club or arranging concerts, so ideally I’d strip these costs and staff numbers out of my comparison.  That’s all I’m trying to do, so that I can put a rough approximation of our player wage bill, and then see where we are placed across this division.

I’m not interested in amortisation and other costs for this piece. Ta though.

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20 hours ago, Harry said:

You are of course correct Rob. You’re right that I have framed my argument in a certain way, but as you’ll see from my opening line, I’ve really done it to try to spark a slightly different debate - ie one which asks “should Pearson be getting much more from this squad”. So I intentionally made it more of a ‘trolling’ type post and you correctly sussed it ?


I think as a club, they have been pushing the ‘bad finances’ narrative and this is disguising Nigel’s performance (or even protecting him). 
I guess my point was that Nige has a relatively decent squad when comparing to 3 years ago. I genuinely think, aside from Brownhill, every other member of that previous squad was not fawned over by the fanbase, and the majority of the fanbase were happy to see the majority of them gone. 
Todays team still contains 6 of that team. 5 of those 6 arguably being the more respected/liked by the fanbase of that previous squad. Add Semenyo, Scott, Conway, James, Naismith, Atkinson, Klose, Williams, and I genuinely wonder why this manager isn’t getting more out of them. 
I 100% acknowledge that finances are a huge problem for us. But I refuse to believe that this is the sole reason we’re in a relegation fight. And that’s the general narrative (excuse) coming from the club and the manager. The players we have are plenty decent enough to not be involved in a relegation scrap. As a club they need to quit with the “woe is me” narrative. It’s portraying a loser-mentality. 

You really need to stop this, Harry - putting thought-provoking posts on here that go against the ‘woe is us’ orthodoxy. 

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9 hours ago, Harry said:

Well, you’re the one who told me you had me on ignore, and then I discover that you are putting laugh emojis on my posts so clearly don’t have me on ignore. 
So, a laugh emoji on a post can be interpreted multiple ways. Pray tell, what was funny? 
Or are you just gonna ignore it and hope it goes away, like you did a couple of months ago when you got caught being racist? 

You really are just being pathetic now.

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In the same way we've all seen him enjoy belittling journalists in public if he's having a bad day, you can imagine him doing the same behind the scenes with the players. He has a strong squad and should be doing better. My theory is that privately a lot of the players simply dont like him, especially once he starts with the hissy fits. I see it as more of a man management problem than a financial one. 

Edited by Colombo Robin
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22 hours ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

So doesn't that suggest that in two years, NP has not been able to change the culture, attitude, tactics, training etc etc in anyway whatsoever to improve results by just using his experience, man management skills, tactical brain?  If yes then that's pretty poor management in my book.  Whatever players you inherit, what ever business you can or cannot do, after 2 years I would expect improvements on the pitch surely?  If not by now then when?

I believe the main problem is the inbalance in the squad , we have talented youngsters and quality old pros who are past their best , neither type of player can be expected to be functioning at the top of their game twice a week in the Championship. 
Then add in a difficult run of results and confidence drops off as well. 
There is also too much uncertainty concerning the January window, Semenyo and Scott have lost all form. 
Iam hoping that we can get one or two new faces in and out and then press on without these distractions. 

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1 hour ago, Colombo Robin said:

In the same way we've all seen him enjoy belittling journalists in public if he's having a bad day, you can imagine him doing the same behind the scenes with the players. He has a strong squad and should be doing better. My theory is that privately a lot of the players simply dont like him, especially once he starts with the hissy fits. I see it as more of a man management problem than a financial one. 

And your evidence is???

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10 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Mr P, I’m not disputing the wage cost, nor what’s included or not…I’m just trying to find a method of fair comparison of the football side of our club across the Championship.

Most championship clubs don’t have a group of staff doing stuff for a Rugby club or arranging concerts, so ideally I’d strip these costs and staff numbers out of my comparison.  That’s all I’m trying to do, so that I can put a rough approximation of our player wage bill, and then see where we are placed across this division.

I’m not interested in amortisation and other costs for this piece. Ta though.

They also don't have rugby club staff doing something for them or free use of their facilities. It's 2 way.

They also don't have money from the stadium siphoned off to another company. Neither City nor the Bears get money from concessions...

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12 minutes ago, Colombo Robin said:

"My theory is....." Just a hypothesis. We have all seen the way he can act when grumpy and in my opinion his personality will on occasions work against him. 

In what way do you think it will work against him? I imagine he has the respect of his players and staff. Even from those out of the team probably.

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2 hours ago, Colombo Robin said:

In the same way we've all seen him enjoy belittling journalists in public if he's having a bad day, you can imagine him doing the same behind the scenes with the players. He has a strong squad and should be doing better. My theory is that privately a lot of the players simply dont like him, especially once he starts with the hissy fits. I see it as more of a man management problem than a financial one. 

Strong squad? We have good strikers but the rest of it is poor 

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A decent debate but I think there is a fundamental disagreement around something that is a judgement call.  Some seem to think we have a strong squad atm. I disagree and I think a lot comes from that.

For example, I've always thought that Massengo, Dasilva and Bentley were overrated and I've seen nothing during their time to suggest otherwise.  They look like average mid table championship players to me.  The sort that will have a decent career, but never be a striver or achiever like say Luke Ayling.  I can't put it any better really.  Bentley can produce some amazing performances but then you get a catastrophe like Birmingham away.  

I would love to see an analysis of our current squad based on cost. Total cost.

How much of our current playing budget is taken up by players whose current contract was signed under Pearson?  2 years into a job you would normally expect this to be the majority but I suspect it isn't.  He's made signings for sure and we can debate their merits either way, but until the raft of contacts end in June, he will still be managing a playing budget taken up in the most part with other people's signings.


To put it in algebra

Kalas = (Pring + Scott + Atkinson + Weimann + Naismith + King)

 

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On 28/12/2022 at 07:54, real_bristol said:

IIRC Cotts inherited a massively restructured club courtesy of SODs reforms. SOD was a victim of his own transition. I don’t want to take any credit from Cotts but he caught us at the right time. 

True. It's quite an interesting situation. I don't think Cotterill could've done the restructuring as effectively but likewise if the roles were reversed, I don't think SO'D could have joined the club when Cotterill did and achieved such an emphatic promotion. 

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On 27/12/2022 at 23:17, Harry said:

Well, I say busting myths. Maybe I’m more trying to stir the pot. But here goes anyway….

At the start of the covid break, March 2020, we had Lee Johnson in charge. 37 games had been played. We were 7th. 1 point off the playoffs. Since the turn of the year, we’d won 5, drawn 2 and lost 5. 
 

In those 12 games of the calendar year to date, the following players were regulars :

Bentley, Kalas, Baker, Dasilva, Massengo, Weimann, Wells. 
 

7 players who have all been part of Pearson’s squads in the 22 months he’s been here. 
 

We keep hearing about the massive job Pearson has had to do. We hear that he’s had to get rid off bad eggs, overpaid primadonnas and not have any funds to bring his own players in. 
 

7 of the team that had us in 7th place after 37 games have been at his disposal. Sadly Bakers time was cut short, but he was available for Pearson for a fair while during his tenure. 
 

Players who have left the club under Pearson are :

Szmodics, Elliason, Morrell, J Smith, Bailey Wright, Matty Taylor, Korey Smith, Rory Holden, Adelakun, Diedhiou, Baldwin, Opi Edwards, Gilmartin, Hunt, Lansbury, Hinds, Mariappa, Paterson, Rowe, Walsh, Watkins, Wallocott, Nagy, Nurse, Palmer, O’Dowda, Janneh, Bakinson, Britton, Cundy. 
 

Of all of those gone, 30 listed, not a single one has gone to a higher ranked division and not a single one has been a success anywhere since. 
Of that list, you could probably get an argument for Paterson as being a decent player here, Diedhiou was generally pretty useless but for the odd goal and had cult status, Korey had a good career here but was on the wane, and Eliasson had a “good cross on him” but little else. 
Of all the others, there probably aren’t many fans who could put up a good argument for why they should have stayed at City and in most cases the majority of the fanbase were happy to see them go. 
 

So, let’s disregard all the financial arguments. Johnson had money and Pearson hasn’t. Yes, I get it. 
But the squad that Johnson ended with here in March 2020 contained 7 of the same squad Pearson has had at his disposal and 30 other players which no one really wanted here anyway and were not bothered when they left. 

Pearson has managed to replace those 30 unwanted players with Semenyo (a sought after talent), Scott (a much sought after talent), Conway (a potentially sought after talent, Atkinson (a £1.6m centre back), James & King (2 of his own studs who’ve won a premier league), Naismith (the player of the season at a team which got to the playoffs), Klose (a man with recent prem experience and promotion from this league).

So, the question is, Johnson got that bunch of players, most of which no fans really wanted and who have done nothing of note since leaving City, to 7th in the league, whilst Pearson has had 7 of the regulars from that Johnson team plus his own additions of generational talents and premier league players. So how did Johnson manage to get what could be easily argued as a worse team man for man into 7th place and nearly into the playoffs, whilst Pearson hasn’t managed to string any kind of form together over a 22 month stretch with arguably a better squad? 
 

I really feel that we are over-egging the impact the financial situation is having on Pearson’s job. Yes, the financial situation is very real and he hasn’t had a great deal to play with, but the squad now is arguably better man for man than the one Johnson had. Should Pearson be getting much more out of this squad than a record of 24-19-41, a 28.5% win rate, when Johnson was getting a 46% win rate from a worse bunch of players who needed to all be removed from the club!
 

Personally, I think the bloke is getting away with murder. 

Interesting and thought-provoking post. 

I absolutely agree with the gist of what you are saying - just a couple of minor things;

It was LJ who started playing Semenyo, not Pearson. LJ recalled him from Newport so he could bolster the first team options (I seem to remember him getting sent off vs Derby the first time I watched him at Ashton Gate - I wasn't impressed!)
You listed the players from LJ's team that the fans 'didn't care about'. Whilst this may be true for many of us, speaking for myself, at the time I personally rated Eliasson highly (top assists in the league, despite hardly ever starting). Diedhiou, for all his frustrations, was still our top scorer and we let him leave without replacing him. I also rated Paterson - although lightweight and a bit of a sick-note I thought he could still do a job for us.
I highlighted 'at the time' in my statement, because I'm not sure I would want them back now. As you said in your post; man for man and on paper we have a better squad today. 

I do get that we needed to save some money and those players were costing - particularly Pato, so I accept that the decision to offload them was very possibly financial, rather than for their (lack of) worth on the pitch.

Much of the criticism aimed at LJ's appointment was that he was unproven, SL's 'mate' and we should have gone for a more experienced manager rather than gambled on an unknown. SL relented and employed a well-respected and experienced manager with a pedigree, yet we are still huffing and puffing - at the wrong end of the table (at least under LJ we huffed and puffed in the top half).

I've thought for some time that we should be doing better than we are under Pearson - I've said that on here a couple of times and been shot down by the Pearson 'love-in' brigade. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

I believe the main problem is the inbalance in the squad , we have talented youngsters and quality old pros who are past their best , neither type of player can be expected to be functioning at the top of their game twice a week in the Championship. 
Then add in a difficult run of results and confidence drops off as well. 
There is also too much uncertainty concerning the January window, Semenyo and Scott have lost all form. 
Iam hoping that we can get one or two new faces in and out and then press on without these distractions. 

You have to wonder if agents have got to the pair of them with ideas of a move to the promised land..

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1 hour ago, M.D said:

You have to wonder if agents have got to the pair of them with ideas of a move to the promised land..

I think it's just normal - young players are often inconsistent. Semenyo has had an unusual few months and almost definitely was (whether intentional or subconscious) trying to ensure he didn't get injured for the world cup. 

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7 hours ago, firstdivision said:

You really need to stop this, Harry - putting thought-provoking posts on here that go against the ‘woe is us’ orthodoxy. 

Yep, a thought provoking post from a new angle.  Guess what?  It provoked thought and responses with great maturity and thought from the likes of @Oléand @The Constant Rabbit, but because they challenged @Harry’s point of view (and your want of Nige Out, you don’t like it.

There are some great responses on both sides of the argument across OTIB at the mo’, but why are certain OTIB posters trying to shut down opposing views.  Debate / discuss what you like about Harry’s post, that’s the right way to engage.

 

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3 hours ago, The Bard said:

A decent debate but I think there is a fundamental disagreement around something that is a judgement call.  Some seem to think we have a strong squad atm. I disagree and I think a lot comes from that.

For example, I've always thought that Massengo, Dasilva and Bentley were overrated and I've seen nothing during their time to suggest otherwise.  They look like average mid table championship players to me.  The sort that will have a decent career, but never be a striver or achiever like say Luke Ayling.  I can't put it any better really.  Bentley can produce some amazing performances but then you get a catastrophe like Birmingham away.  

I would love to see an analysis of our current squad based on cost. Total cost.

How much of our current playing budget is taken up by players whose current contract was signed under Pearson?  2 years into a job you would normally expect this to be the majority but I suspect it isn't.  He's made signings for sure and we can debate their merits either way, but until the raft of contacts end in June, he will still be managing a playing budget taken up in the most part with other people's signings.


To put it in algebra

Kalas = (Pring + Scott + Atkinson + Weimann + Naismith + King)

 

I have that data. ?

928CB5F1-6AE7-48C1-ADD0-4D965C24AE88.thumb.jpeg.d12977f82e4c4d66736042cb6bbbc0ae.jpeg

Simple columns:

Yellow shaded headings are really “what has Nige done with them”, e.g. did he sign them, did he offer them a contract, re-contract, etc.

(this is the subset of my data based on current players - I created it because I sensed a lot of non-facts starting to creep in to OTIB)

You’ll see:

  • Kalas £8m contract not touched by Pearson
  • Bentley £3m ditto
  • Dasilva £2m ditto
  • Moore £1.5m ditto
  • Massengo £2.8m ditto
  • J.Williams £1.25m ditto
  • Martin free - exercised his own option

That may of course change before the summer!

10 academy league debuts since he arrived, 2 have moved on (Janneh and Britton), hence only 8 shown.

Shout if any Qs, hopefully gives what you want.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Colombo Robin said:

In the same way we've all seen him enjoy belittling journalists in public if he's having a bad day, you can imagine him doing the same behind the scenes with the players. He has a strong squad and should be doing better. My theory is that privately a lot of the players simply dont like him, especially once he starts with the hissy fits. I see it as more of a man management problem than a financial one. 

No, no and no.

All available evidence suggests the opposite.

Absolutely incredible how you could even hypothesise such nonsense out of thin air.

His man management of players is his strength. Have you not heard any Leicester players talk about him? Why do you think Matty James came here when he would have better paid offers elsewhere? Or King for that matter. Where is the evidence any of our players aren't putting the effort in for him? How come players he's dropped have come back into the team and performed well? Where the hell do people get this shit from? **** me. 

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2 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

Interesting and thought-provoking post. 

I absolutely agree with the gist of what you are saying - just a couple of minor things;

It was LJ who started playing Semenyo, not Pearson. LJ recalled him from Newport so he could bolster the first team options (I seem to remember him getting sent off vs Derby the first time I watched him at Ashton Gate - I wasn't impressed!)
You listed the players from LJ's team that the fans 'didn't care about'. Whilst this may be true for many of us, speaking for myself, at the time I personally rated Eliasson highly (top assists in the league, despite hardly ever starting). Diedhiou, for all his frustrations, was still our top scorer and we let him leave without replacing him. I also rated Paterson - although lightweight and a bit of a sick-note I thought he could still do a job for us.
I highlighted 'at the time' in my statement, because I'm not sure I would want them back now. As you said in your post; man for man and on paper we have a better squad today. 

I do get that we needed to save some money and those players were costing - particularly Pato, so I accept that the decision to offload them was very possibly financial, rather than for their (lack of) worth on the pitch.

Much of the criticism aimed at LJ's appointment was that he was unproven, SL's 'mate' and we should have gone for a more experienced manager rather than gambled on an unknown. SL relented and employed a well-respected and experienced manager with a pedigree, yet we are still huffing and puffing - at the wrong end of the table (at least under LJ we huffed and puffed in the top half).

I've thought for some time that we should be doing better than we are under Pearson - I've said that on here a couple of times and been shot down by the Pearson 'love-in' brigade. 

 

 

All that just to finish with “love-in brigade” when there have been some very strong and articulate pro-Nigel posts made, particularly on this thread. 

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2 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

Much of the criticism aimed at LJ's appointment was that he was unproven, SL's 'mate' and we should have gone for a more experienced manager rather than gambled on an unknown. SL relented and employed a well-respected and experienced manager with a pedigree, yet we are still huffing and puffing - at the wrong end of the table (at least under LJ we huffed and puffed in the top half).

I've thought for some time that we should be doing better than we are under Pearson - I've said that on here a couple of times and been shot down by the Pearson 'love-in' brigade. 

 

 

 

Really? Given the resources available to the two of them, is it any surprise.

FFS.

Edited by glynriley
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1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think it's just normal - young players are often inconsistent. Semenyo has had an unusual few months and almost definitely was (whether intentional or subconscious) trying to ensure he didn't get injured for the world cup. 

Yeah, you’d like to think these players have enough experience and maturity around them to not get sucked in by the money. Personally, think Semenyo deserves a start but perhaps needs a couple of starts to find his form. The mere thought of him and Conway “clicking” is very exciting. 

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47 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, a thought provoking post from a new angle.  Guess what?  It provoked thought and responses with great maturity and thought from the likes of @Oléand @The Constant Rabbit, but because they challenged @Harry’s point of view (and your want of Nige Out, you don’t like it.

There are some great responses on both sides of the argument across OTIB at the mo’, but why are certain OTIB posters trying to shut down opposing views.  Debate / discuss what you like about Harry’s post, that’s the right way to engage.

 

Agreed. Ole and Constant Rabbit have made very well thought out and considered responses. Which is great. 
I don’t necessarily agree with all that they’ve said, some, but not all (but I completely understand the angles they are coming from). 
End of the day, when we find ourselves in the situation we are in, there are always going to be polarising views. 
My view has of course been a highly critical one, but you’ll also all see that I am not yet firmly in the ‘Pearson Out’ camp. 
Pearson has a number of qualities that the club is definitely the better for, but I am calling into question a number of his decisions, whilst not completely calling for his head at the moment. 
I want him to do better. He needs to do better. If he doesn’t do better, we are going down (in my opinion). So of course I want him to do better. But he’s still got a helluva lot to prove to me. 

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3 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

True. It's quite an interesting situation. I don't think Cotterill could've done the restructuring as effectively but likewise if the roles were reversed, I don't think SO'D could have joined the club when Cotterill did and achieved such an emphatic promotion. 

Agreed. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that SOD went on to a coaching role (again, if my memory serves..) and Cotts is the better manager. He still had so much to do. He made that crop believe in themselves and turned Aden Flint into Lionel effing Messi by the end of the season. What a year that was. As a side note, I for one haven’t given enough credit to Cotts’ coaches at the time.

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