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Recruitment - is ours really as good as we think?


Dr Balls

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Just read through this thread and some good comments on here.

But ultimately, Lansdown pulls the purse strings and the decision making process. Based on 1st two home games (early days I know), Nige P desperately needs two signings, a 20 goal/season striker and a goal creating/playmaker midfielder - not too much to ask. Just feels like the club is going backwards to me.

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10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Dunno Harry is the honest answer.  But even in that Williams clip (1m15s) above you see Roberts drift inside, Williams goes wide, J.James tracks Williams, Sunjic tracks Roberts….basically they’ve swapped their designated men.  But then Roberts “re-verts” and with J.James still tracking Williams (infield) and Williams now on the ball, Sunjic has to follow Roberts, out of the centre.  Neither get tight, a bit unsure of each other’s position, Roberts receives, feeds Mehmeti and we are over the half way line.

Its pretty simple stuff.

I wrote this pre-season:

image.thumb.png.1424f00b55b465fd9d2a7d053b5bc56d.png

 

Ah. I hadn’t seen that analysis you did Dave. Yep, spot on. It was was exactly how things happened. My guess is that it’s just player preference rather than team instruction. Which is good that they have that freedom to play their own game. We just need to ensure the rest of the team are aware when this happens. 

4 minutes ago, Psychopomp said:

Recruitment, as in any business or sports team, is the most important activity.

Is Bristol City at the forefront of state-of-the-art recruitment? The answer to that is no.

The club were scared to follow Brentford, and more recently Brighton. The idea now, it seems, is to use Luton as the guiding light to our policy. A lot is made of data analytics, but if all you are doing is using the same data any one of us can sign up to and pay for access, how are you going to gain a competitive advantage?  What analysis models have we developed, with machine learning to manipulate data at speed and volume? Have we analysed successful players from other clubs to understand why they were recruited? Or what did the data of such players look like when they were below 20 years of age? Have we adapted to new visa regulations? Do we maximise the southwest network of fans and scouts who may have the club at their heart and can provide early tip-offs? Do we have specialist recruiters defined by playing position? (You do not ask for a player from a geographical or league perspective, you ask for an LB/CB/GK etc). Do we have anyone who has worked for or scouted Prem standard players? How many scouts do we actually have? Why do we recruit so few players from Prem academies compared to other clubs(not by paying £8m and £25k a week btw),Roberts a recent exception Do we have anyone inside BCFC who has worked for a club that has outperformed their relative budget by innovative recruitment? 

Looking from outside we are recruiting better from the puddle we are looking in. Most of that is from having a clearer input as to player requirements. By fast-tracking youth, we are developing and filtering players faster, but those coaches can only work with the players they are given. We are just looking at essentially L1/L2/Ireland and Scotland. But we are doing nothing innovative and groundbreaking or international. 

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that. 

Post of the Century

????

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@Psychopomp

Brighton are great but in the Championship, a non Parachute regular albeit fast growing Championship club were they so innovative?

Easier now in the PL and a club on the rise but what did they do to stand out from the crowd st this level- what set them apart? Genuine question.

Brentford I get that one a bit more.

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Banging on about this for decades …. our recruitment ‘strategy’ has been all over the place and has rarely hit a sweet spot. 

Until will appoint a dedicated Head of Recruitment, who has a decent geographical network (UK and Europe) of expert scouts beneath him, supported by analysts, physiologist et al, and who has a clear agreed plan on recruitment we shall forever be languishing between Championship and League 1.

You only need to look at goalkeeper acquisitions over the last 5 years to see how random things are… feels like we’re trying to pin the tail on a donkey while blindfolded. 

 

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50 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Dunno Harry is the honest answer.  But even in that Williams clip (1m15s) above you see Roberts drift inside, Williams goes wide, J.James tracks Williams, Sunjic tracks Roberts….basically they’ve swapped their designated men.  But then Roberts “re-verts” and with J.James still tracking Williams (infield) and Williams now on the ball, Sunjic has to follow Roberts, out of the centre.  Neither get tight, a bit unsure of each other’s position, Roberts receives, feeds Mehmeti and we are over the half way line.

Its pretty simple stuff.

I wrote this pre-season:

image.thumb.png.1424f00b55b465fd9d2a7d053b5bc56d.png

 

The successful sides at elite level play with the inverted full backs. Look how good Man C and Arsenal used this last season.  A lot of Arsenal fans prefer Tierney offensively but Zinchenko was a key part of their midfield playing inside. I am convinced we signed McCrorie and Roberts for this reason.

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36 minutes ago, Psychopomp said:

Recruitment, as in any business or sports team, is the most important activity.

Is Bristol City at the forefront of state-of-the-art recruitment? The answer to that is no.

The club were scared to follow Brentford, and more recently Brighton. The idea now, it seems, is to use Luton as the guiding light to our policy. A lot is made of data analytics, but if all you are doing is using the same data any one of us can sign up to and pay for access, how are you going to gain a competitive advantage?

What analysis models have we developed, with machine learning to manipulate data at speed and volume?

Have we analysed successful players from other clubs to understand why they were recruited?

Or what did the data of such players look like when they were below 20 years of age?

Have we adapted to new visa regulations? Do we maximise the southwest network of fans and scouts who may have the club at their heart and can provide early tip-offs? Do we have specialist recruiters defined by playing position? (You do not ask for a player from a geographical or league perspective, you ask for an LB/CB/GK etc). Do we have anyone who has worked for or scouted Prem standard players? How many scouts do we actually have? Why do we recruit so few players from Prem academies compared to other clubs(not by paying £8m and £25k a week btw),Roberts a recent exception Do we have anyone inside BCFC who has worked for a club that has outperformed their relative budget by innovative recruitment? 

Looking from outside we are recruiting better from the puddle we are looking in. Most of that is from having a clearer input as to player requirements. By fast-tracking youth, we are developing and filtering players faster, but those coaches can only work with the players they are given. We are just looking at essentially L1/L2/Ireland and Scotland. But we are doing nothing innovative and groundbreaking or international. 

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that. 

@Harry beat me to it with.  Bravo too.

I posted last night about the new visa regs.  Sunderland and Boro have got ahead of the game here.  We will have to see whether it works out, but if it does, we have been too slow!

The comment re puddle is my view too, and also the big about clearer requirements.

28 minutes ago, Harry said:

Post of the Century

????

It is something we have spoken about a bit / questioned from a “process” point of view as part of the scouting group, especially when it’s been referred to as “best in class”, “world leading”, “the envy of…”.

It is one of the reasons I built my little game by game viz, so that I could challenge the eyes if our work really took-off.  I was getting ahead of myself frankly, but at least I had a bit of a vision as to how I could add value to your eyes, but also some critique too.

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22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Harry beat me to it with.  Bravo too.

I posted last night about the new visa regs.  Sunderland and Boro have got ahead of the game here.  We will have to see whether it works out, but if it does, we have been too slow!

The comment re puddle is my view too, and also the big about clearer requirements.

It is something we have spoken about a bit / questioned from a “process” point of view as part of the scouting group, especially when it’s been referred to as “best in class”, “world leading”, “the envy of…”.

It is one of the reasons I built my little game by game viz, so that I could challenge the eyes if our work really took-off.  I was getting ahead of myself frankly, but at least I had a bit of a vision as to how I could add value to your eyes, but also some critique too.

Out of interest - as the club don’t seem to be using yours and @Harry’s group, are you still scouting/data gathering? If so, are you now feeding that to other clubs?

Seems such the waste for the club not to use that knowledge from fans. The new CEO has been in place for over 6 months and I’m not sure I’d know him if I bumped into him in the street.

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1 hour ago, robin_unreliant said:

I don't think there is any great mystery about why this is. NP has said repeatedly that goal scorers cost a lot of money. I think I've heard Tinnion saying that this is also the reason we are hoping Conway and Bell will become our strikeforce.

Basically, it seems the club has decided we can't afford what it costs to buy a top striker. So we're shopping on the cheap, with predictable results. Part of this I guess is our FFP problem but also we're back to SL again I suspect.

But that’s only been true for the last 2 seasons. 
We weren’t pleading poverty when we signed Wells & Martin. 2 of the only 3 we’ve signed for that role in 6 years. 
Besides, even over the last 2-3 years when we’ve been poverty-stricken, plenty of champ clubs have signed strikers and pretty much everyone outside of the parachute clubs would have been in some form of financial constraints in the same period. 
I know they’ve been mentioned a bit but look at someone like Carlton Morris as an example. He cost Luton about the same we paid for Atkinson. And Luton pay much less in wages than we do. 
I’m not singling out this one transfer but there will be plenty in that price and wage range. We’re just not the sort of club who takes these sort of opportunities. It’s twofold ; 1 - we are risk averse and 2 - we put a lot of faith in our academy. 
Reason 2 means that we now have Bell upfront on his own with an aging and let’s face it, not particularly effective Wells as his back up. 

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Risk averse Stoke, have signed from Ferencvaros and Maritimo. (Hungary and Portugal).

Vidigal who came from the latter, 3 goals 3 games to date in the League. Time will tell as go how he does overall but one of their major performers to date.

€500k, at least according to Transfermarkt

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18 minutes ago, Henry said:

Out of interest - as the club don’t seem to be using yours and @Harry’s group, are you still scouting/data gathering? If so, are you now feeding that to other clubs?

Seems such the waste for the club not to use that knowledge from fans. The new CEO has been in place for over 6 months and I’m not sure I’d know him if I bumped into him in the street.

Yes, we’re still very much keeping our eyes on players. It’s just something we enjoy doing - whether that’s to help City of just for fun/interest. 
Not heard anything from the new CEO, but that’s fine. We’ve moved on and no hard feelings. I just hope they improve where I feel they need to improve. 
Regards other clubs - yes, we had some interest from FGR and had meetings and messages with their head of recruitment but as yet that’s not gone anywhere. Far too much change happening behind the scenes there. They need help though, trust me!! I know exactly what their analytics looks like and how many scouts they have and where. It’s not great! 
Also have a couple of other irons in the fire with another club and also potentially an agency. But what happens happens. We’ll still be out there watching when we can. 
One lad I was going to recommend to FGR was Jordan Thomas. Watched him for North Leigh last season and was impressed. Bath City managed to pick him up and he’s got 4 goals in his first 3 games. And now only 2 leagues below FGR (was a 4 division gap when I saw him). Might’ve been a decent punt for them on a free given they’ve got a real lack of creativity and goals in the team.  

Edited by Harry
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With respect to those doing it, the idea of good Lower division and youth with a few experienced heads would work better if the wage cap that was proposed had come in.

It would also work better if the FA had not liberalised if certain criteria met the work permit regime.

However it hasn't and they did so it leaves us needing to be rather fortunate with a host of matters is this summer is the medium term future.

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This is the first time for ages that City can actually afford to sign a forward from France (or wherever) a la Kodjia and Diedjiou. Maybe after Fammy scampered off on a free SL has been put off that idea...?

If not a powerful striker, then a mercurial AM?

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12 hours ago, Jose said:

I think I along with others I  got carried away Pre season. 

Don't be too hard on yourself. It happens every summer. It's hard not to feel a little optimistic, as new lads come in, talking of "potential" and what have you. I wonder if it didn't also happen in the summers of 1979,1980, 1981 (and 1994, 1998 and 2012). Blokes on here just cannot help themselves, particularly if we get our business "done early." They really like the "way we go about our business" when that business is done before the first league game. It's contagious. And when we "get our business done early," there aren't any league games for a while to suggest that maybe that "business" was a little hasty, if not downright ****ing hopeless.

A summer transfer window without a little uninformed deluded optimism would be like a spring morning with no birds singing, or Christmas eve with no excited children. Long live the misplaced optimism of the bloke on a football forum during the long summer months without any football to see.

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that.

This is it entirely. Of course who knows, we may be trying to implement this. But I have a feeling that we are incredibly lacking in ideas from board level on this. We like to publicly portray ourselves as a progressive club, yet I sometimes feel we are far from this. 

Tins doesn’t need changing, he’s needed because he is a real football enthusiast, passionate about talent and all things Bristol City. I daresay we’ve got some decent analysts. But when you mention Brighton and Brentford they had owners with real data insight and vision. I’ll come back to saying that I believe that SL’s is long gone and JL has never had it. If they did they should have partnered with some real credible investors to be innovative with a determination to take a plan, implement it, develop it (with some inevitable flexibilty that the football world demands), stick to it and make it succeed (maybe make a couple of play offs and still be sustainable). Oh and not be impressed with a cut price version like Mark Ashton (okay he seems to be doing alright at Ipswich, but will he get found out, or more likely his new bosses can see his use but ultimately won’t fall for any of his extra bullshit to which SL seemed to sleepwalk through, evidenced by the state we found ourselves in after his tenure).

We don’t make enough of the international market, just look at the growing Japanese, Korean central American markets, let alone the established Scandinavian leagues. Okay, the ones we’ve had may have not worked. Or perhaps it was because our recruitment was not targeted enough previously and we didn’t know what we really are looking for. This has to change surely when you see some of the talent in clubs we’re competing with.

The Brentford and Brighton stories all took time as well, but we just seemed to observe and get the feeling that we just thought we could do it our way instead (after all I think we all got carried away sometimes thinking we might be bigger and better by them. Perhaps we were bigger relatively but I aint so sure we’ve been cleverer.

SL has made it clear they have been actively looking for investors, don’t blame him, he’s done a lot with his own dosh, but I think he’s run out of ideas and energy and certainly publicly, enthusiasm.

I repeat, we need new leaders at the owner/strategic board level. Yep I know, be careful what you wish for, etc. But surely not every bunch of investors has to be a bunch of cowboys. It’s got to happen soon anyway as Steve has said he can’t go on for ever. I think at the moment, SL must be constantly evaluating what he’s prepared to sell and at what price. He won’t want to do this on thw way down again both for the price he could demand and for his own legacy.

Whatever happens, SL should definately (I hope he is) looking for innovative investors that can see the potential in the club in area of potential such as Bristol, with the kind of foresight that has helped Brighton and Brentford.

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One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

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19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

What model do you refer to? 

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

Higher up you’ll see clubs using their free spots to bring in young talent with high potential who wouldn’t yet meet work permit rules, low risk high reward. Our level will probably be a mix of bringing in players with potential and ready now talent, but the difficulty comes with assessing the level that talent is playing at abroad, buying from England probably represents a lower risk as you’ll know more about them, even if it comes with a slight premium of buying from England. City seem to trust themselves with their ability to buy domestically at the moment so I don’t think we’ll change in the short term, perhaps the odd signing but wouldn’t expect us to fill our spots straight away 

Edited by Lrrr
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1 hour ago, Lrrr said:

Higher up you’ll see clubs using their free spots to bring in young talent with high potential who wouldn’t yet meet work permit rules, low risk high reward. Our level will probably be a mix of bringing in players with potential and ready now talent, but the difficulty comes with assessing the level that talent is playing at abroad, buying from England probably represents a lower risk as you’ll know more about them, even if it comes with a slight premium of buying from England. City seem to trust themselves with their ability to buy domestically at the moment so I don’t think we’ll change in the short term, perhaps the odd signing but wouldn’t expect us to fill our spots straight away 

Thanks.

Possibly missing a trick there, time will tell. I get the argument but that Danish midfielder at Preston looks sharp, Vidigal at Stoke another- still early days but neither cost the earth I expect.

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2 hours ago, Harry said:

What model do you refer to? 

May I'm being a bit vague but we seem to have had a few themes to one recruitment last couple of years:

*Lower divisions and I've no problem.

*Maybe some with PL experience as young players.

*Some older and experienced ie King and James.

Seems reasonable but perhaps too shallow a pool. Perhaps somewhat dependent on external factors too, ie new financial rules and tougher work permit rules?

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3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

 

49 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

May I'm being a bit vague but we seem to have had a few themes to one recruitment last couple of years:

*Lower divisions and I've no problem.

*Maybe some with PL experience as young players.

*Some older and experienced ie King and James.

Seems reasonable but perhaps too shallow a pool. Perhaps somewhat dependent on external factors too, ie new financial rules and tougher work permit rules?

Right. Ok I think I now understand your question. 
What your asking is that, we currently operate a model of A) look for lower league bargains, B) Sprinkle with the occasional youngster released from a prem team and C) Top it with a bit of experience. 
And the question is, under that model, has the relaxing of work permits and the lack of financial regulations had a negative impact? 
Is that about right? 
 

If that’s the case my answer would be this :

We’ve flipped and flopped from one strategy to the next countless times under Lansdown. The buy cheap, sell high philosophy was a nice one on paper but you’re screwed as soon as you don’t get the big money sale (as we’ve seen the last 2/3 years prior to Semenyo and Scott leaving). Much is made of the financial state we got ourselves in but it was basically because we were running a model that relied on us selling an asset at least once a season. Never guaranteed! 
 

So, is our model the correct one? Far from it. Should we have been quicker to react to the work permit regs - absolutely. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot by restricting our spending, particularly with  the lack of new regs - yes, but to be honest I actually morally agree with that. I’d rather we lived within our means, but I guess if you do that in this league you go backwards, so that’s a tough call. 
 

I do firmly believe though, that even by being frugal we could still have done a lot better in recent years. I wouldn’t have paid large wages to certain players and would instead have looked for lower paid younger players who could easily fulfil what those older high wage players have done. So whilst we’ve not spent as much as other clubs in fees, I still think we’ve not used the money as wisely as we perhaps could have. 
There are flaws in every model, but if ours is to shop in certain places (ie Primark rather than John Anthony’s) then we must enter those shops and pick up the best garments on the rack, and not still be in the end of stock sales section of an already discounted store. 

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Right. Ok I think I now understand your question. 
What your asking is that, we currently operate a model of A) look for lower league bargains, B) Sprinkle with the occasional youngster released from a prem team and C) Top it with a bit of experience. 
And the question is, under that model, has the relaxing of work permits and the lack of financial regulations had a negative impact? 
Is that about right? 
 

If that’s the case my answer would be this :

We’ve flipped and flopped from one strategy to the next countless times under Lansdown. The buy cheap, sell high philosophy was a nice one on paper but you’re screwed as soon as you don’t get the big money sale (as we’ve seen the last 2/3 years prior to Semenyo and Scott leaving). Much is made of the financial state we got ourselves in but it was basically because we were running a model that relied on us selling an asset at least once a season. Never guaranteed! 
 

So, is our model the correct one? Far from it. Should we have been quicker to react to the work permit regs - absolutely. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot by restricting our spending, particularly with  the lack of new regs - yes, but to be honest I actually morally agree with that. I’d rather we lived within our means, but I guess if you do that in this league you go backwards, so that’s a tough call. 
 

I do firmly believe though, that even by being frugal we could still have done a lot better in recent years. I wouldn’t have paid large wages to certain players and would instead have looked for lower paid younger players who could easily fulfil what those older high wage players have done. So whilst we’ve not spent as much as other clubs in fees, I still think we’ve not used the money as wisely as we perhaps could have. 
There are flaws in every model, but if ours is to shop in certain places (ie Primark rather than John Anthony’s) then we must enter those shops and pick up the best garments on the rack, and not still be in the end of stock sales section of an already discounted store. 

Using that shop analogy, others have been rifling through the hangars at TK Maxx looking for that discounted designer bargain, while we only shop at Primark and then think we are keeping up with the latest fashions. And it’s not as if that latter strategy of dredging Leagues 1 and 2 is foolproof, as the transfers of Kane Wilson have so recently proved.

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8 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Right. Ok I think I now understand your question. 
What your asking is that, we currently operate a model of A) look for lower league bargains, B) Sprinkle with the occasional youngster released from a prem team and C) Top it with a bit of experience. 
And the question is, under that model, has the relaxing of work permits and the lack of financial regulations had a negative impact? 
Is that about right? 
 

If that’s the case my answer would be this :

We’ve flipped and flopped from one strategy to the next countless times under Lansdown. The buy cheap, sell high philosophy was a nice one on paper but you’re screwed as soon as you don’t get the big money sale (as we’ve seen the last 2/3 years prior to Semenyo and Scott leaving). Much is made of the financial state we got ourselves in but it was basically because we were running a model that relied on us selling an asset at least once a season. Never guaranteed! 
 

So, is our model the correct one? Far from it. Should we have been quicker to react to the work permit regs - absolutely. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot by restricting our spending, particularly with  the lack of new regs - yes, but to be honest I actually morally agree with that. I’d rather we lived within our means, but I guess if you do that in this league you go backwards, so that’s a tough call. 
 

I do firmly believe though, that even by being frugal we could still have done a lot better in recent years. I wouldn’t have paid large wages to certain players and would instead have looked for lower paid younger players who could easily fulfil what those older high wage players have done. So whilst we’ve not spent as much as other clubs in fees, I still think we’ve not used the money as wisely as we perhaps could have. 
There are flaws in every model, but if ours is to shop in certain places (ie Primark rather than John Anthony’s) then we must enter those shops and pick up the best garments on the rack, and not still be in the end of stock sales section of an already discounted store. 

Really interesting, thanks Harry.

I made a comment in a different thread recently (on ground redevelopment) about SL’s apparent trait of sticking with one train of thought for so long and then becoming too easily discouraged and just flipping to something different. Managers, grounds and, as you say, recruitment strategy.

To what extent though do you think covid screwed our adherence to the buy cheap sell high model? I get what you’re saying about the risks that are inherent in it, and take the point that there are no guarantees. But, in practical terms we’d been successfully selling an asset right up to the point where covid came along.

I think you can probably argue also that one of our problems was that we mitigated against that risk through quantity as well as quality: if you buy 10 players and sell one for 11x what they cost then you’re quids in.

And, my old hobby horse, you have to align the finances of that strategy with the playing field strategy: buy to fit your tactical strategies not just a random 10 players: have a proper succession strategy in place for when you do sell. 

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