Relegation Battle Thoughts

[daored]

3 minutes ago, Banjo Island said:

Serious question pete do you not think we are already in it

Unfortunately we are , the only positive is we need probably 9 / 10 points to be ok. Home games against Huddersfield, Rotherham , Blackburn and Swansea should suggest not a concern, question is do you expect us to beat those teams? We need to pick up a result in next two games before we play West Brom & Leicester to at least give us confidence

[One Team]

1 minute ago, The Original OTIB said:

Indeed, a few on here need to wake up a bit. This week is VERY VERY crucial. We need to steady things quickly. Manning has to be pragmatic.

You make a great point. Thinking "we won't go down" isn't a strategy not to. 

[Banjo Island]

2 minutes ago, petehinton said:

No, 6 points and an enormous swing in GD. However can change very quickly if we have another winless week, considering we have Swansea at home next and Brum could beat Boro as their game in hand. 

I hope your right bud

[ralphindevon]

3 minutes ago, marmite said:

Leicester were odds on to romp to the title a month ago but look how quickly that's changed, and that's a team with a Prem squad!. 

We ain't out of the woods yet the way we are playing but even I think we will just make it.

That would only involve 2 scenarios, Leicester to keep losing and Leeds/Ipswich to keep winning.

As you go on to say, we should be fine. Lots of clubs would have to have a turn around of fortunes and we only may need 3 or 4 more points

[italian dave]

7 minutes ago, marmite said:

Leicester were odds on to romp to the title a month ago but look how quickly that's changed, and that's a team with a Prem squad!. 

We ain't out of the woods yet the way we are playing but even I think we will just make it.

Rule of thumb, you drop down a lot more dramatically when you lose at the top than you do at the bottom.

Although the Championship is a strange old place!

[Ivorguy]

I am sorry it has come to this but I just don’t rate Mannimg and can easily see us, with a lack of confidence , to be fighting for survival.   And then don’t think Manning has the bottle for a fight.  He has failed before at lower level.

what a complete mess!

 

[1960maaan]

1 minute ago, petehinton said:

No, 6 points and an enormous swing in GD. However can change very quickly if we have another winless week, considering we have Swansea at home next and Brum could beat Boro as their game in hand. 

We are not scoring , and we are conceding at least a goal a game . 6 points above the relegation zone could easily 3 by Sunday night . Then 2 away games where points could be scarce .  

We are definitely not out of it and safe yet.  

If we beat Swansea , and got another point somewhere then it may look different , but ATM we cannot relax.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, daored said:

Unfortunately we are , the only positive is we need probably 9 / 10 points to be ok. Home games against Huddersfield, Rotherham , Blackburn and Swansea should suggest not a concern, question is do you expect us to beat those teams? We need to pick up a result in next two games before we play West Brom & Leicester to at least give us confidence

We won't need 53 or 54 points for safety.

Current looks like 22nd could get 49, maybe 50. Which means at the very least we need to equal that and have decent GD.

So two wins, or 6 draws, or one win and three draws does it. That set of results won't see the GD drop to what 22nd will have.

I'm very confident that we will be fine.

[Mr Popodopolous]

This shows how poorly it has gone since the change that this is even seen as an outside risk, discussion point.

If we got 1.15 PPG under NP and Fleming, we would have 3 or 4 points less. Therefore we would be in the thick of it.

On the flipside, had we so much as maintained the starting point we would be 5 points better off, relegation all but wiped as a risk and still an outside but not really chance of 6th.

Edited March 3 by Mr Popodopolous

[daored]

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We won't need 53 or 54 points for safety.

Current looks like 22nd could get 49, maybe 50. Which means at the very least we need to equal that and have decent GD.

So two wins, or 6 draws, or one win and three draws does it. That set of results won't see the GD drop to what 22nd will have.

I'm very confident that we will be fine.

Hope you’re right but do agree on GD 

[weepywall]

Ipswich away is probably just a case of how many we lose by....Swansea home is huge in my opinion..we are 16th and they are 12th on current form...lose to them and we are in trouble I feel...we are definitely on the slide...after the last few displays I'm struggling to see where are next 3 points are coming from...very depressing!!

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This shows how poorly it has gone since the change that this is even seen as an outside risk, discussion point.

If we got 1.15 PPG under NP and Fleming, we would have 3 or 4 points less. Therefore we would be in the thick of it.

On the flipside, had we so much as maintained the starting point we would be 5 points better off, relegation all but wiper as a risk and still an outside but not really chance of 6th.

Thing is we can lose the next 4, then go at 1 ppg through the final 7...and we'd probably still be safe on 51 points. That would be miserable, but we'd still be a Championship team next season.

It's bad, and it could get worse, but it's just not likely that we go down.

Edited March 3 by ExiledAjax

[The Original OTIB]

For the sake of balance, we are in the identical position (13th) as this time last year, albeit one point and one goal better off at that time. Crucially, though, the bottom 3 were 13 points behind us, and 6 points adrift of safety.  Things are much, much tighter this season.

[The Humble Realist]

The next 6 games would have to yield 2 points or less for us to get sucked in , in my opinion.

That isnt impossible but I'd suggest unlikely ...

Fyi those fixtures are 

Ipswich (a)
Swansea (h)
WBA (a)
Leicester (h)
Plymouth (a)
Sunderland (a)

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Thing is we can lose the next 4, then go at 1 ppg through the final 7...and we'd probably still be safe on 51 points. That would be miserable, but we'd still be a Championship team next season.

It's bad, and it could get worse, but it's just not likely that we go down.

Oh for sure, I get that..although the drastic pick up of some of the bottom half may make it a higher bar.

Yeah I'm not wildly worried about relegation but it is a damming indictment as to how things have been managed, played out.

When I say management I don't just mean Manning and his staff, I mean the entire situation.

Edited March 3 by Mr Popodopolous

[marmite]

1 minute ago, The Humble Realist said:

The next 6 games would have to yield 2 points or less for us to get sucked in , in my opinion.

That isnt impossible but I'd suggest unlikely ...

Fyi those fixtures are 

Ipswich (a)
Swansea (h)
WBA (a)
Leicester (h)
Plymouth (a)
Sunderland (a)

I don't see the 6 points we need coming from these games.

[The Humble Realist]

Just now, marmite said:

I don't see the 6 points we need coming from these games.

We wont need 6 (from these ) to get sucked in .

Agree we will struggle to get 6!

[Davefevs]

52 minutes ago, Capman said:

I think it’s becoming clear that Jon thought it was a bottom 6 squad and just needed the manager to get us there. 

Top-end of bottom 6?

41 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

A good manager goes to Ipswich on Tuesday and makes sure that if they beat us they have to do something special to do it. Let’s see what Powerpoint Man does.

He’s my uncle, my dad, spreadsheet man is his brother.

14 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We won't need 53 or 54 points for safety.

Current looks like 22nd could get 49, maybe 50. Which means at the very least we need to equal that and have decent GD.

So two wins, or 6 draws, or one win and three draws does it. That set of results won't see the GD drop to what 22nd will have.

I'm very confident that we will be fine.

I said 50 on FBC this morning.

[And Its Smith]

31 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

!50 to one against NOT 150 to one on !

I didn’t say it was 150/1 on to go down. I said it was 150/1 on paddy power 

[A Horse With No Name]

My View is that a good old relegation dogfight is a damn sight more exciting than a midtable bore fest. Thankyou Liam.

[cidered abroad]

58 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

We should be OK. Even our current form should see us through. However if that form gets worse then thats where we have to start worrying. 

 

 

I hope that you are correct. All I hope, I don't pray, not religious, is that it doesn't depend on a win at Stoke to send them down instead of us!  Anyone else realised this possible scenario?

Edited March 3 by cidered abroad

[Back of the Dolman]

35 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

!50 to one against NOT 150 to one on !

And what price were Leicester to win the Premier League ?

6 of our remaining games are against teams below us and at the moment our ability to break down these teams is non existent.

add to that we don’t look like a squad who have a stomach for this fight and players openly arguing on the pitch which is not a good sign.

yes we probably won’t be relegated but I do think people are being overly confident in claiming it won’t happen

[redsocks]

Better believe it we're in it.shocking form tough games ahead,manning not the answer.get rid now before it's to late.?

[38MC]

I think we are safe. I’m sure a mathematician out there could go through each fixture list and come up with a minimum points which is based upon who has to play who and we’re probably only a handful of points away. There’s a lot between us and relegation  based upon who plays who etc. it’s too many teams to overtake us. 
 

im not complacent we need a few  points to get over the line, but I’m sure we will. With or without the current manager. 

Edited March 3 by 38MC

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

We should be OK. Even our current form should see us through. However if that form gets worse then thats where we have to start worrying. 

 

 

worse?

[ExiledAjax]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I said 50 on FBC this morning.

And I think we will get some surprises over the next few games. WBA, maybe Sunderland. Who knows.

Then realistically Blackburn are in disarray so there's a chance of points there, and then match against Huddersfield could seal safety.

[Redrascal2]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

We should be OK. Even our current form should see us through. However if that form gets worse then thats where we have to start worrying. 

 

 

Lost to QPR, Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff with two games at home. If you are relying on that form to see us through. Then I would be very worried Unless Manning can do something different and change the template we are in the relegation dogfight. And with Ipswich, WBA and Leicester to play this month it looks even harder.

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 minute ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

worse?

If we turn 2 wins in 11 to 0 wins in the next 11 and don't pick up many draws then we're in big trouble. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 minutes ago, Redrascal2 said:

Lost to QPR, Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff with two games at home. If you are relying on that form to see us through. Then I would be very worried Unless Manning can do something different and change the template we are in the relegation dogfight. And with Ipswich, WBA and Leicester to play this month it looks even harder.

Totally agree with you. Over the next 11 games I'm struggling to see where a win will come from. 

Yes on paper we should beat the likes of Huddersfield and Rotherham etc but we all know that we can't beat these teams. 

[RollsRoyce]

I would doubt very much that we can be relegated. We would need to turn into Roherham. We probably need 6 points from 11 games to get to 50. Despite our current form, that should easily be attainable. But relegation, no unless we lose the next 4/5 which is most unlikely. Swansea should suit us.