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General Election 2015 Match Day Thread (Merged)


Moloch

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Expect Tim Farron as new Lib Dem leader, Labour is a lot harder to call. Andy Burnham is a good shout, but I beat Chukka Umunna will throw his hat in the ring.

If Farage makes good his pledge to go if not an MP who have they got? Carswell? Mr Funny Mouth as leader? It could spell the end there.

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UKIP with 13% of the vote yet only one seat yet the SNP with far less has 50 odd seats. Very strange system is this.

UKIP get 3 million votes and 1 or 2 seats. Green get 1 million and 1 seat. SNP get 1.5 million, with about 56 seats.

Edit: The FT has a chart on Twitter which shows this nicely - https://twitter.com/elliot_bentley/status/596550310044262400

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BBC have some interesting analysis:

In Tory/Labour marginals there was a slight swing from Conservative to Labour.

In SNP/Labour marginals there was a massive swing from Labour to SNP.

In Lib Dem/Tory seats there was a large swing from Lib Dem to Conservative.

In Lib Dem/Labour seats there was a large swing from Lib Dem to Labour.

Basically Labour gained slightly against the Conservatives. However, this was more than offset by the SNP destroying Labour in Scotland and the Conservatives being 2nd in many more Lib Dem seats than Labour so therefore greater able to benefit from the Lib Dem collapse.

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I only read his first sentence then gave up. The decision of the British people is absolutely the correct decision.

I wouldn't say "absolutely the correct decision". Regardless of individual political standing, the party needs a sizeable majority to be sure of passing laws. It looks like the Tories will only have a very narrow majority which will result in vulnerability. The party will be prone to those on the fringes of the party trying to dictate government policy, as was seen during Major's time. Furthermore, the party will be vulnerable to defections and by-elections.

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Of course. Though it is the slimmest of majorities.

Exactlyy point above. This could potentially lead to weak government and big decisions being avoided.

Four examples:

Energy policy - Many Conservative MPs are pro-nuclear and anti-wind, however, there are some (such as Zac Goldsmith) who are the opposite. However, something needs to be done as without further investment the country is projected to face increasing bills and the risk of blackouts, neither of which will be good politically.

Extra runway capacity in the SE - This is a contentious issue and Conservative MPs in Sussex stood against expansion at Gatwick, yet a separate set of MPs stood on the basis of objection to the expansion of Heathrow for example Justine Greening who actually resigned from the cabinet in the last government on this very point. If no decision is made it is believed the economy will be adversely affected, thus reducing the Conservatives chances of reelection.

Housing - All the main parties (including the Conservatives) agreed that the rate of housebuilding needed to increase greatly, as there is currently a housing crisis. The problem is, all major analysts and experts say if the targets are to be met there will need to be building on greenfield sites and possibly the greenbelt. However, many MPs stood against building on such sites in their constituencies. Housing became quite a high issue in this election, and the Tory party will know unless something is done it will be even bigger at the next election.

EU referendum - Many Conservative MPs want to be out of the EU, yet there are many who want to remain in the EU. Regardless of eventual result, there is the feeling that the uncertainty caused by such a referendum would impact upon investment etc, therefore damaging the economy which would reduce the Conservatives likelihood of getting back into power.

There are many other aspects where there are contradictions. With a strong majority the government can afford for a few MPs to go against the party line, however with a slim majority this is not possible.

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I only read his first sentence then gave up. The decision of the British people is absolutely the correct decision.

 

Like all these things, it was the decision of a minority of the British people.

 

The correct decision would have been to bring in a degree of proportional representation when we had the chance, then you could make claims like that.

 

To be honest, even if this decision went against my vote, I could accept such a bit easier with a fairer electoral system.

 

I'm sure UKIP, Green and Labour supporters might agree.

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