Jeremy Corbyn

[Portland Bill]

Well, whatever you think of Corbyn, you have to admit that the Labour Party has made a farcical, shambolic mess of organizing a leadership election. It can give you no confidence whatsoever in their ability to run the country.

The principal of one person one vote is how it should be, but it's difficult to stop people from other parties ( being sad enough) joining and voting.

Re Corbyn.

What we have to remember is that there are possibly 10 million voters in this country who failed to use there vote at the last election.

A lot of those because no one represented there views, Corbyn's views may well be the same as a lot of those 10 million people.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

The principal of one person one vote is how it should be, but it's difficult to stop people from other parties ( being sad enough) joining and voting.

Re Corbyn.

What we have to remember is that there are possibly 10 million voters in this country who failed to use there vote at the last election.

A lot of those because no one represented there views, Corbyn's views may well be the same as a lot of those 10 million people.

 

Come on Bill as I said earlier, it's like a teenager advertising a party on FB when their parents are away and not expecting the house to get trashed by the hundreds of uninvited guests.

 

it was a completely stupid idea and the sort of madcap idea that will make people glad that they never voted for labour.

 

it's nice to have a dream though.

[Portland Bill]

Come on Bill as I said earlier, it's like a teenager advertising a party on FB when their parents are away and not expecting the house to get trashed by the hundreds of uninvited guests.

it was a completely stupid idea and the sort of madcap idea that will make people glad that they never voted for labour.

it's nice to have a dream though.

They can't win though E's, the union bloke vote got ( rightly) slaughtered by everyone so they changed it.

What would you suggest they should do re voting for a leader?

[Maesknoll Red]

They can't win though E's, the union bloke vote got ( rightly) slaughtered by everyone so they changed it.

What would you suggest they should do re voting for a leader?

Its not difficult, the party restrict it to members of a certain period of membership, 1year, 3, 5? Who knows, but if if you had to pay a proper membership fee and do it for eg. 3+ years before you could vote, it should weed out all but the most determind miscreants.

[Red-Robbo]

Yep, a lot worse Robbo, and a poor bunch of candidates to boot.

No, I don't think so. This method of open nomination is how US parties chose candidates btw and is used in a number of other countries.

There will be a small number of Tories and SWP types who vote, but the majority will be Labour supporters.

The idea that "it's chaos" has arisen because a left-wing "outsider" is unexpectedly in the lead - contrary to the Labour hierarchy's and the Tory press's wishes. But that's called democracy.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

They can't win though E's, the union bloke vote got ( rightly) slaughtered by everyone so they changed it.

What would you suggest they should do re voting for a leader?

 

Bill it shouldn't be that difficult, there was a problem with the union block vote (how long has it taken the labour party to realise that?) so why not 1 man 1 vote for existing members?, why invite the whole country to a party for less than the price of a pint?, a country that invented 'Rick rolling'.

 

Still always good for a laugh.

[Come on Eileen]

P.S. Am I the only person who thinks Liz Kendal is a 'bit of a fox'??

 

 

TFR

You are from my perspective...I think she's completely weird.

It looks to me like a competition to be tallest dwarf.

[Calculus]

Dunno. Is it worse than the behind-closed-doors stitch up that decides Tory leaders? Voted in by a few dozen people.

Or UKIP'S farcical "I resign" er, hang on, there's no-one else..... "I'm back!"

 

Sorry to intrude here.

 

The Tory process is for MPs acting as gate keepers, voting for their preferred candidate using a transferrable vote system. The final 2 then go forward to a ballot of the entire membership. This is the process that was in place for Cameron, MIchael Howard and IDS. Various election processes took place before that but mainly only involving MPs. The last truly 'magic circle' appointment was, I believe Alec Douglas Home in the early 60s.

 

If I remember correctly the last totally stitched up leadership election saw Gordon Brown become Prime Minister with no election at all. Mind you, the election of Ed, against the wished of Labour MPs and constituency members, runs in very close.

 

Time Labour did something similar. Gordon and Ed never shook of the manner of the appointment, and the next unfortunate sod will fare no better.

[Red-Robbo]

Sorry to intrude here.

 

The Tory process is for MPs acting as gate keepers, voting for their preferred candidate using a transferrable vote system. The final 2 then go forward to a ballot of the entire membership. This is the process that was in place for Cameron, MIchael Howard and IDS. Various election processes took place before that but mainly only involving MPs. The last truly 'magic circle' appointment was, I believe Alec Douglas Home in the early 60s.

 

If I remember correctly the last totally stitched up leadership election saw Gordon Brown become Prime Minister with no election at all. Mind you, the election of Ed, against the wished of Labour MPs and constituency members, runs in very close.

 

Time Labour did something similar. Gordon and Ed never shook of the manner of the appointment, and the next unfortunate sod will fare no better.

 

My point, as you must have taken it, is a one-person, one-vote involving more than 600,000 people is inheritently a more democratic way to chose your candidate than one involving a couple of hundred - many of whom are backing a candidate because they've been promised something.

 

BTW Brown was opposed as a candidate by John McDonnell and Michael Meacher, but both failed to get the requisite number of votes to trigger a full leadership vote.

[Calculus]

My point, as you must have taken it, is a one-person, one-vote involving more than 600,000 people is inheritently a more democratic way to chose your candidate than one involving a couple of hundred - many of whom are backing a candidate because they've been promised something.

BTW Brown was opposed as a candidate by John McDonnell and Michael Meacher, but both failed to get the requisite number of votes to trigger a full leadership vote.

Oh I think that Labour have had a good go at a democratic process. It's just a shame that they've managed to include a load of people who either want to subvert the party (hard left entyists) and Torys up to no good. If they'd kept it at members only but had a campaign to recruit more full time members beforehand I think they'd have been better served. Hoping for a good outcome to the whole sorry story but I can't see it. I'm no Labour supporter but what's going on now does the country no favours.

BTW: nobody significant stood against Gordy - no cabinet member would have dared such was his control. Apparently in later years as Chancellor he wouldn't even tell Blair what was in the budget. A dark time!

[Red-Robbo]

Oh I think that Labour have had a good go at a democratic process. It's just a shame that they've managed to include a load of people who either want to subvert the party (hard left entyists) and Torys up to no good. If they'd kept it at members only but had a campaign to recruit more full time members beforehand I think they'd have been better served. Hoping for a good outcome to the whole sorry story but I can't see it. I'm no Labour supporter but what's going on now does the country no favours.

BTW: nobody significant stood against Gordy - no cabinet member would have dared such was his control. Apparently in later years as Chancellor he wouldn't even tell Blair what was in the budget. A dark time!

 

Yes, I agree with that first paragraph and have written similar myself. I think you can talk up the "mischevous Tories/militant Trots" factor in the race. The number of people at the Jezza roadshow events, the social media presence, the number of volunteers he's signed-up, all show he'd be way out in front even if he had no "subversive" voters backing him. He's brought tens of thousands of apolitical voters into the Labour fold, not to mention disaffected Greens etc...

 

Not that I'd vote for him!

[marshy]

No, I don't think so. This method of open nomination is how US parties chose candidates btw and is used in a number of other countries.

There will be a small number of Tories and SWP types who vote, but the majority will be Labour supporters.

The idea that "it's chaos" has arisen because a left-wing "outsider" is unexpectedly in the lead - contrary to the Labour hierarchy's and the Tory press's wishes. But that's called democracy.

 

No problem with democracy Robbo, although I can imagine there are many Labour MPs wishing they had the Tory system so they could weed out extremists before passing on to a membership vote and thus increase their chances of holding on to their seats. What is difficult to fathom is that they could, without really thinking things through, put in place a system which threatens the very existence of the party. Amazing really that people should seem so surprised that a genuine left-winger, a late entrant to the contest that seemed to come from nowhere, might actually lead the Labour Party.

 

I'm not yet sure what Corbyn's stance is on the EU (the overriding issue for me as you know) but I am hopeful that his views on sovereignty and democracy will coincide with those of Tony Benn in this youtube interview. A 'No' from Corbyn will be a massive boost to Brexit. Oh, and I have to add, Thank you Nigel for making the referendum possible.

 

[Calculus]

[Red-Robbo]

No problem with democracy Robbo, although I can imagine there are many Labour MPs wishing they had the Tory system so they could weed out extremists before passing on to a membership vote and thus increase their chances of holding on to their seats. What is difficult to fathom is that they could, without really thinking things through, put in place a system which threatens the very existence of the party. Amazing really that people should seem so surprised that a genuine left-winger, a late entrant to the contest that seemed to come from nowhere, might actually lead the Labour Party.

I'm not yet sure what Corbyn's stance is on the EU (the overriding issue for me as you know) but I am hopeful that his views on sovereignty and democracy will coincide with those of Tony Benn in this youtube interview. A 'No' from Corbyn will be a massive boost to Brexit. Oh, and I have to add, Thank you Nigel for making the referendum possible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da8ZuF2LSGU

He favours withdrawal from the EU, Marshy.

[BCFC Jimmer]

Tony Benn is my hero -

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LnY-jy_cE0

[PHILINFRANCE]

No, I don't think so. This method of open nomination is how US parties chose candidates btw and is used in a number of other countries.

There will be a small number of Tories and SWP types who vote, but the majority will be Labour supporters.

The idea that "it's chaos" has arisen because a left-wing "outsider" is unexpectedly in the lead - contrary to the Labour hierarchy's and the Tory press's wishes. But that's called democracy.

 

But RR,

 

Surely the Tory press and supporters are all hoping/wishing for a a left-wing (Corbyn) victory.

[PHILINFRANCE]

[Red-Robbo]

But RR,

Surely the Tory press and supporters are all hoping/wishing for a a left-wing (Corbyn) victory.

I think they are, providing he can be comprehensively rubbished and reputationally destroyed before he faces any electoral test.

A rejuvenated Labour - appealing to those who had been turned off politics and picking up SNP, Green and even UKIP voters - would be very dangerous for Cameron.

Even if Corby doesn't make it to 2020, you will have by-elections before then and we know what a slender majority the government commands. Cameron has already had to shelve the promised free vote on hunting because the government was likely to lose.

If Corbyn enjoyed a popularity surge, whatever the press said about him, Labour could pick up seats in by-elections and leave the Tories with a John Major style lame-duck government.

I do realise, that's a lot of if's. ;-)

[PHILINFRANCE]

I think they are, providing he can be comprehensively rubbished and reputationally destroyed before he faces any electoral test.

A rejuvenated Labour - appealing to those who had been turned off politics and picking up SNP, Green and even UKIP voters - would be very dangerous for Cameron.

Even if Corby doesn't make it to 2020, you will have by-elections before then and we know what a slender majority the government commands. Cameron has already had to shelve the promised free vote on hunting because the government was likely to lose.

If Corbyn enjoyed a popularity surge, whatever the press said about him, Labour could pick up seats in by-elections and leave the Tories with a John Major style lame-duck government.

I do realise, that's a lot of if's. ;-)

 

Indeed, a lot of if's.

 

Surely, if JC (Jeremy Corbyn, to avoid confusion) is as extreme left-wing as seems, he will not pick up the Green, SNP? (or did you mean 'SDP/Liberal'?) and most certainly not the UKIP voters.

 

He will be portrayed as a modern-day Michael Foot, an image that will surely be supported by the Tories.

 

Welcome to another Tory election victory.

[Kid in the Riot]

He favours withdrawal from the EU, Marshy.

 

And NATO? He's certainly not a fan...

[Red-Robbo]

Indeed, a lot of if's.

Surely, if JC (Jeremy Corbyn, to avoid confusion) is as extreme left-wing as seems, he will not pick up the Green, SNP? (or did you mean 'SDP/Liberal'?) and most certainly not the UKIP voters.

He will be portrayed as a modern-day Michael Foot, an image that will surely be supported by the Tories.

Welcome to another Tory election victory.

The SNP and Green Party are substantially to the left of much of the parliamentary Labour Party and as for UKIP some of their supporters are former Labour voters, disillusioned with the samey politics of the "Big two" and seeking someone perceived to be outside of the establishment.

[Red-Robbo]

And NATO? He's certainly not a fan...

That's right. I think his campaign literature talks about a phased withdrawal.

[22A]

I predict he'll actually strike a lot of chords with a lot of people

This is what many journalists & TV studio experts reckon. He appeals to the traditional Labour supporters who were lost when "new Labour" tried being a clone of the Conservatives.

Someone else described Cobyn as "a left wing Farage"; he will say what other politicians won't.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

This is what many journalists & TV studio experts reckon. He appeals to the traditional Labour supporters who were lost when "new Labour" tried being a clone of the Conservatives.

Someone else described Cobyn as "a left wing Farage"; he will say what other politicians won't.

 

They said the same about Ed.

[CiderHider]

Literally the left equivalent of Farage, possibly more dangerous.

[Calculus]

Literally the left equivalent of Farage, possibly more dangerous.

 

Farage isn't dangerous. 14% in the GE, one seat at Westminster and it isn't him. Farage is an egotistical side show whose shelf life won't extend beyond the referendum. True, he has support, but its never going to be enough to amount to power anywhere that matters.

 

Corbyn speaks for rather more people though. If he wins the leadership then I would predict he'd do a little less well than Michael Foot in 1983. That was 26% of the electorate and only 1% ahead of the Alliance. Unlike then, he couldn't now expect to totally recover ground lost in Scotland. Significant certainly, but electoral suicide for Labour.

[Red-Robbo]

Farage isn't dangerous. 14% in the GE, one seat at Westminster and it isn't him. Farage is an egotistical side show whose shelf life won't extend beyond the referendum. True, he has support, but its never going to be enough to amount to power anywhere that matters.

 

Corbyn speaks for rather more people though. If he wins the leadership then I would predict he'd do a little less well than Michael Foot in 1983. That was 26% of the electorate and only 1% ahead of the Alliance. Unlike then, he couldn't now expect to totally recover ground lost in Scotland. Significant certainly, but electoral suicide for Labour.

 

There's a rather big difference now though Calc. There is no Alliance. 

 

If Labour wins back its Scottish vote to 2010 levels and wins back half its English seats lost in 2015, it would be the largest party.

[Calculus]

There's a rather big difference now though Calc. There is no Alliance. .

 

Not yet there isn't. Not that it's any of my business but I can see many MPs being in open revolt against Corbyn as leader and some may well do an SDP style runner. More likely, IMO, is that Corbyn gets ditched before 2020 and replaced by someone like Dan Jarvis or Chuka Ummuna. Would still be surprised if Corbyn does win - ok, they've marched to the edge of the cliff, but I just can't believe they'll jump.

[Red-Robbo]

Not yet there isn't. Not that it's any of my business but I can see many MPs being in open revolt against Corbyn as leader and some may well do an SDP style runner. More likely, IMO, is that Corbyn gets ditched before 2020 and replaced by someone like Dan Jarvis or Chuka Ummuna. Would still be surprised if Corbyn does win - ok, they've marched to the edge of the cliff, but I just can't believe they'll jump.

 

I think the point is that there isn't much of an appetite for a party of "nice Tories" - as Mr Clegg might attest should he reflect on it that deeply. Labour dissenters will also remember what happened to all those SDP MPs - and bide their time.

 

You just can't compare things with 1983. Foot was an older and seemingly slightly doddery leader compared to Corbyn, the "Putin threat" to the UK seems a lot less urgent and at the forefront than the 1980s nuclear war paranoia was, Thatcher was a divisive personality but she commanded more of a personal vote than Cameron (and certainly his heir presumptive Sir Gideon of Wallpaper) ever has, and of course you had the "Falklands Factor". Labour actually had Trotskyite infiltrators controlling various councils. Corbyn might be from the left, but he's always been Labour through and through.

 

 

BTW after your earlier post about the unopposed ascent of Gordon Brown to Labour leader, I remembered that Michael "something of the night" Howard had a similar unopposed red carpet to party power. that didn't end well either....

[Calculus]

I think repeat of 1983 in 2020 is definitely possible. By the way, Corbyn will be older then than Foot was in 1983. True that the Russian/USSR threat has diminished, with paranoia more directed towards Islamic fundamentalists - a subject on which Corbyn will face many questions. A Corbyn leadership might see many left wingers into constituency parties, many of which could be hard left types. Last time, the Labour party had Kinnock to rescue it from itself. Can't yet see someone of that quality in the ranks.

 

BTW: Your point re Michael Howard is or course true, although you should bear in mind that Howard inherited a post-IDS mess of a job that nobody else wanted. Brown became PM.