Semenyo is not a striker they score goals

[OldlandReddies]

8 hours ago, harrys said:

AS got previous with that type of the goal, the two he got at Fulham were special 

That first 30 minutes at Fulham was the best atmosphere/feeling at an away day in many a year. Semenyo"s goals were absolutely electric and unstoppable. Fulham didn't know what hit them.............well, for 30 minutes anyway!

[Slippin cider]

Did we manage to hold on to him after last nights deadline?

[CiderJar]

3 minutes ago, Slippin cider said:

Did we manage to hold on to him after last nights deadline?

Aye

[Slippin cider]

1 minute ago, CiderJar said:

Aye

Great news that ….got him until at least January then. 

Towler out on loan 

[CiderJar]

6 minutes ago, Slippin cider said:

Towler out on loan 

Yep. I'm wondering if they have more wheels than doors in Wimbledon? (it's got to be doors annit?)
 

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by CiderJar

[Monkeh]

11 minutes ago, Slippin cider said:

Great news that ….got him until at least January then. 

Towler out on loan 

If he goes in Jan then any team buying him will overpay as that's what normally happens in Jan,

I think he will leave in the summer after bwnging 20 goals in for us, for 28 million,

Unless the unlikely occurs ans we get promoted

[ExiledAjax]

31 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

If he goes in Jan then any team buying him will overpay as that's what normally happens in Jan,

I think he will leave in the summer after bwnging 20 goals in for us, for 28 million,

Unless the unlikely occurs ans we get promoted

It's a speculative opinion that could well be true, but for me I just do not see a market for £28m. That seems way above what PL clubs have generally paid for Champ talent. It would make him the 4th most expensive transfer out of the Champ in history, and the most expensive since Ake and Watkins in the 20/21 season.

£20m I can just about see possible. 40% on top of that feels like serious wishful thinking imo.

[Bristol Oil Services]

1 hour ago, Slippin cider said:

Did we manage to hold on to him after last nights deadline?

Yeah. And before it. Where is @BS4 on Tour... by the way?

[Monkeh]

23 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's a speculative opinion that could well be true, but for me I just do not see a market for £28m. That seems way above what PL clubs have generally paid for Champ talent. It would make him the 4th most expensive transfer out of the Champ in history, and the most expensive since Ake and Watkins in the 20/21 season.

£20m I can just about see possible. 40% on top of that feels like serious wishful thinking imo.

Sadly that's the market,

Prem clubs spent 1.8 billion this summer, more then all the other major leagues combined

The championship spent 86 million

Edited September 2, 2022 by Monkeh

[Rudolf Hucker]

33 minutes ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

Where is @BS4 on Tour... by the way?

Transferred to Oldham Pedantic. 

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Monkeh said:

Sadly that's the market,

Prem clubs spent 1.8 billion this summer, more then all the other major leagues combined

The championship spent 86 million

The Champ spent £86 million partly because the Premier League clubs didn't spend much of that £1.8 billion in the Championship. Only approximately £140m flowed from the PL down into the coffers of Championship clubs. About half of that went to Burnley for just 4 players (Collins, McNiel, Cornet and Pope). If you exclude Burnley's sales as that's really a Premier League club selling Premier League players then you're left with roughly £75 million being spent by the Premier League in the Championship.

Of that £75 million, about a third was spent by Forest.

The rest went on four players: 

• Lewis-Potter £17m Hull > Brentford
• Spence £13m Boro > Spurs
• Tavernier £11m Boro > Bournemouth
• Downes £10m Swansea > West Ham.

Looking at that does Semenyo £28m Bristol City > ? really look likely? One player potentially accounting for nearly a quarter of the money spent by the Premier League on non-relegated Premier League talent. A fee nearly 50% more than the next highest fee?

Personally I think you are overestimating the market and overestimating Semenyo's value.

All figures based on this transfermarkt list https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022&s_w=s&leihe=0&intern=0&intern=1

Edited September 2, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[mozo]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

The Champ spent £86 million partly because the Premier League clubs didn't spend much of that £1.8 billion in the Championship. Only approximately £140m flowed from the PL down into the coffers of Championship clubs. About half of that went to Burnley for just 4 players (Collins, McNiel, Cornet and Pope). If you exclude Burnley's sales as that's really a Premier League club selling Premier League players then you're left with roughly £75 million being spent by the Premier League in the Championship.

Of that £75 million, about a third was spent by Forest.

The rest went on four players: 

• Lewis-Potter £17m Hull > Brentford
• Spence £13m Boro > Spurs
• Tavernier £11m Boro > Bournemouth
• Downes £10m Swansea > West Ham.

Looking at that does Semenyo £28m Bristol City > ? really look likely? One player potentially accounting for nearly a third of the money spent by the Premier League on non-relegated Premier League talent. A fee nearly 50% more than the next highest fee?

Personally I think you are overestimating the market and overestimating Semenyo's value.

All figures based on this transfermarkt list https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022&s_w=s&leihe=0&intern=0&intern=1

15m in January I reckon

[ExiledAjax]

3 minutes ago, mozo said:

15m in January I reckon

If he has a storming autumn and World Cup (assuming he goes) then yeh I can see that being more realistic. Maybe with an extra £1m or £2m in add-ons. 

I just think anyone talking about fees of nearly double that is getting a little overexcited.

[Monkeh]

23 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The Champ spent £86 million partly because the Premier League clubs didn't spend much of that £1.8 billion in the Championship. Only approximately £140m flowed from the PL down into the coffers of Championship clubs. About half of that went to Burnley for just 4 players (Collins, McNiel, Cornet and Pope). If you exclude Burnley's sales as that's really a Premier League club selling Premier League players then you're left with roughly £75 million being spent by the Premier League in the Championship.

Of that £75 million, about a third was spent by Forest.

The rest went on four players: 

• Lewis-Potter £17m Hull > Brentford
• Spence £13m Boro > Spurs
• Tavernier £11m Boro > Bournemouth
• Downes £10m Swansea > West Ham.

Looking at that does Semenyo £28m Bristol City > ? really look likely? One player potentially accounting for nearly a quarter of the money spent by the Premier League on non-relegated Premier League talent. A fee nearly 50% more than the next highest fee?

Personally I think you are overestimating the market and overestimating Semenyo's value.

All figures based on this transfermarkt list https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022&s_w=s&leihe=0&intern=0&intern=1

If he goes to the prem then yes it would be likely, any other league then no

[Mr Popodopolous]

I still stand by my £15-20m view.

Of course if he really tears it up between now and January and or does well at the WC maybe that changes.

Otoh coming into the last 18 months of contract perhaps reduces the bargaining power of a selling club. January isn't also that good a time to sell, especially when the buying club knows that a selling club may have FFP pressure either by March or by the summer.. invitation for low-ball offers.

It's hard to say tbh.

[Rudolf Hucker]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

If he has a storming autumn and World Cup (assuming he goes) then yeh I can see that being more realistic. Maybe with an extra £1m or £2m in add-ons. 

I just think anyone talking about fees of nearly double that is getting a little overexcited.

I agree that it appears that some are exaggerating the likely future transfer value of Semenyo. The fees paid you just above for Lewis-Potter, Spence, Tavernier and Downes offer comparable fees recently paid by Premier League clubs for Championship players however none of them are out-and-out strikers and we know that there is always an added price to pay for those who are proven goal scorers.
 

For what it’s worth, provided that he continues in his present rich vein of form we should expect, in January a bid in the £20m range. That’s the desperation window for some Prem teams who will need goals to stay there but beyond that figure is fantasy - unless his goal scoring becomes superhuman in the intervening period! 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Rudolf Hucker

[Mr Popodopolous]

For what it's worth, chances of a £20m transfer in January look quite slim IMO.

Just had a quick look and only 15 across the last 5 seasons, one of which was already structured that way from the summer- Benrahma. Can look again perhaps I've missed one or two and some obviously far exceed- players such as Van Dijk, Laporte, but they also have the track record. Digne another who was £25m or so albeit not elite.

Otoh the World Cup can add a premium to fees, perhaps we will see a delayed reaction here.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[BUTOR]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Otoh the World Cup can add a premium to fees, perhaps we will see a delayed reaction here.

If Semenyo continues his form until the WC, then goes on to have a decent tournament (notching a couple of goals) then we will be looking at upwards of 20m in my opinion. And so we should, Prem clubs having proved they aren’t shy of spending this summer and by the looks of the opening month there will be plenty in crisis come January. 

At that point it may be better to sell, although a player like AS is never directly replaceable 20m+ in the hands of NP would be beneficial in the long run. I may be wrong but so I don’t believe one player alone, with a patchy injury record, will make the difference between going all the way and just falling short.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Bouncearoundtheground said:

If Semenyo continues his form until the WC, then goes on to have a decent tournament (notching a couple of goals) then we will be looking at upwards of 20m in my opinion. And so we should, Prem clubs having proved they aren’t shy of spending this summer and by the looks of the opening month there will be plenty in crisis come January. 

At that point it may be better to sell, although a player like AS is never directly replaceable 20m+ in the hands of NP would be beneficial in the long run. I may be wrong but so I don’t believe one player alone, with a patchy injury record, will make the difference between going all the way and just falling short.

It's not that common although the delayed WC factor and I read it's the 1st year of their new T.V. cycle will encourage bigger spending perhaps.

Yes some truth to that though get over his injury issues and who knows what he might achieve, high ceiling and a strong range of attributes IMO.

[ExiledAjax]

44 minutes ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

I agree that it appears that some are exaggerating the likely future transfer value of Semenyo. The fees paid you lust above for Lewis-Potter, Spence, Tavernier and Downes offer comparable fees recently paid by Premier League clubs for Championship players however none of them are out-and-out strikers and we know that there is always an added price to pay for those who are proven goal scorers.
 

For what it’s worth, provided that he continues in his present rich vein of form we should expect, in January a bid in the £20m range. That’s the desperation window for some Prem teams who will need goals to stay there but beyond that figure is fantasy - unless his goal scoring becomes superhuman in the intervening period! 

You've got Eze as well from a couple of seasons ago. Probably the closest to Semenyo in terms of the type of player. That was a £20m fee. As @Mr Popodopolous says I think £20m is the upper limit, even if he bangs in 10 before Christmas and gets goals at the world cup.

There's just not any evidence that any Prem club is looking to spend £30m on a Championship player this season.

If he must be sold then of course I hope we're all wrong and that we are living in @Monkeh's world and not mine. But I doubt that.

[Sheltons Army]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It's not that common although the delayed WC factor and I read it's the 1st year of their new T.V. cycle will encourage bigger spending perhaps.

Yes some truth to that though get over his injury issues and who knows what he might achieve, high ceiling and a strong range of attributes IMO.

I think the biggest factor in eventual fee for Antoine will be goals

Of course clubs will look at every stat , and be impressed , or otherwise by ‘numbers’ in all sorts of aspects , but I still think that keeping his upward trending goal return will be the single biggest factor in an eventual fee.

We all know , and other clubs will see , what he can add without goals but goals = ££££

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

 

14 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

I think the biggest factor in eventual fee for Antoine will be goals

Of course clubs will look at every stat , and be impressed , or otherwise by ‘numbers’ in all sorts of aspects , but I still think that keeping his upward trending goal return will be the single biggest factor in an eventual fee.

We all know , and other clubs will see , what he can add without goals but goals = ££££

 

I certainly hope so, and goals but assists too all-round package? Versatility all that, more attributes the better really- a goal or 2 at WC would only bolster his value too, looks a reasonably competitive group.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Sheltons Army]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

 

I certainly so, and goals but assists too all-round package? Versatility all that, more attributes the better really- a goal or 2 at WC would only bolster his value too, looks a reasonably competitive group.

Yes , sorry , of course, you’re correct about assists

They seem to be the two numbers that everyone (Media , pundits) obsesses about.

IIRC his assist numbers for last season were good and I’m sure will continue to be so

 

For all the modern data analysis , I still think Clubs get starry eyed , probably understandably , over goals return !!!

[MarcusX]

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's a speculative opinion that could well be true, but for me I just do not see a market for £28m. That seems way above what PL clubs have generally paid for Champ talent. It would make him the 4th most expensive transfer out of the Champ in history, and the most expensive since Ake and Watkins in the 20/21 season.

£20m I can just about see possible. 40% on top of that feels like serious wishful thinking imo.

The problem is, the Prem don't generally need to overspend that much to take lower talent.

As soon as a Prem club shows a serious sniff of intent, many a player has their head turned by their agent and you get a Fammy situation where the player downs tools and forces a move.

Luckily that isn't happening here and that's credit to everyone involved around the young lads.

[Mr Popodopolous]

17 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

Yes , sorry , of course, you’re correct about assists

They seem to be the two numbers that everyone (Media , pundits) obsesses about.

IIRC his assist numbers for last season were good and I’m sure will continue to be so

 

For all the modern data analysis , I still think Clubs get starry eyed , probably understandably , over goals return !!!

12 is exceptional for a striker I'd say, sure top top ones aside but at our level that's fairly exceptional especially given 24 starts and 7 subs, age and in out through injury. 

Yeah assists can mean different things, the raw number can mislead a bit...can be a great run and layoff, pin-point or a perfect medium to long range pass or cross again on a plate...or could at the other extreme bounce off a players head, toe whatever to a team mate for a tap in! Definitely IMO the 1st two are more valuable and require more skill and effort than the last which is almost luck.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[mozo]

Do we think there's any chance of getting Semenyo on a new contract? 

If our cap is at about 10-12k now (correct me if I'm wrong!), would we go top end for AS, and would it be in his best interests to sign?

I know we can only speculate but interested to opinions...

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

The Champ spent £86 million partly because the Premier League clubs didn't spend much of that £1.8 billion in the Championship. Only approximately £140m flowed from the PL down into the coffers of Championship clubs. About half of that went to Burnley for just 4 players (Collins, McNiel, Cornet and Pope). If you exclude Burnley's sales as that's really a Premier League club selling Premier League players then you're left with roughly £75 million being spent by the Premier League in the Championship.

Of that £75 million, about a third was spent by Forest.

The rest went on four players: 

• Lewis-Potter £17m Hull > Brentford
• Spence £13m Boro > Spurs
• Tavernier £11m Boro > Bournemouth
• Downes £10m Swansea > West Ham.

Looking at that does Semenyo £28m Bristol City > ? really look likely? One player potentially accounting for nearly a quarter of the money spent by the Premier League on non-relegated Premier League talent. A fee nearly 50% more than the next highest fee?

Personally I think you are overestimating the market and overestimating Semenyo's value.

All figures based on this transfermarkt list https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022&s_w=s&leihe=0&intern=0&intern=1

The two things I’d say about those 4 players is that 1) none of them are strikers 2) I don’t think any of them are top, top drawer.  We will have to see whether Antoine is considered top, top drawer when the next window comes around.

[ExiledAjax]

34 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The two things I’d say about those 4 players is that 1) none of them are strikers 2) I don’t think any of them are top, top drawer.  We will have to see whether Antoine is considered top, top drawer when the next window comes around.

1) is he a striker? I refer you to the opening post of this thread

2) personal opinion. He's not Watkins level. Nearer Eze. Still top drawer, but not the top of the top drawer. Lower-middle of the top drawer. Kinda where you keep your third nicest pair of pants. 

[chinapig]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

1) is he a striker? I refer you to the opening post of this thread

2) personal opinion. He's not Watkins level. Nearer Eze. Still top drawer, but not the top of the top drawer. Lower-middle of the top drawer. Kinda where you keep your third nicest pair of pants. 

Are you saying you agree with the OP that he's pants?

[Rudolf Hucker]

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

1) is he a striker? I refer you to the opening post of this thread

2) personal opinion. He's not Watkins level. Nearer Eze. Still top drawer, but not the top of the top drawer. Lower-middle of the top drawer. Kinda where you keep your third nicest pair of pants. 

How big are your pants ffs?

(I really don’t want to know btw)